The Ducks earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Anaheim didn't just win — they demolished San Jose 6-1 because they finished at an elite level. The Ducks overperformed their expected goals by 2.66, meaning they converted chances with precision the raw xG numbers underestimated.
The underlying metrics told the story. Anaheim controlled 65% of 5v5 expected goals (3.34–1.79) and 61% of shot attempts (30–19). High-danger chances split evenly at 3–3, but Anaheim's quality edge was stark: they generated 0.066 xG per shot versus San Jose's 0.033, making each opportunity count twice as efficiently.
L. Dostal's performance at the other end amplified the gap. He stopped 18 of 19 (0.947 SV%), outperforming his expected save percentage by 0.79 goals. Y. Askarov faced 24 shots and posted a 0.800 SV%, allowing 2.66 more goals than expected—a workload that exposed the gulf between the teams.
The Ducks punished San Jose's mistakes methodically. They scored twice from low-danger areas where a goaltender should hold firm. On the rush, they finished 4 goals on 28 chances—efficiency that compounds across a game. The power play added a dimension: Anaheim scored twice on seven PP shots, banking 0.61 xG on just those seven attempts.
Frank Vatrano's backhander from the doorstep (P3, 17:32) captured the game's trajectory—a team seizing what the superior metrics promised.