Motion-blurred skater in a Seattle Kraken sweater

Breakdown · VGK at SEA

Kraken edge the Golden Knights in a shootout

Final / OTThu, Apr 9

VGKVegas Golden Knights3 SEASeattle Kraken4

The verdict · stolen

The Kraken stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.96–3.24 and won anyway.

VGK 3 · SEA 4

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 11:10 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The underlying numbers favored Vegas, but Seattle's goaltending and a shootout winner rewrote the script. The Kraken beat the Golden Knights 4–3 despite being outshot in expected goals, 3.24–3.96.

Vegas generated higher-quality chances—0.061 expected goals per shot versus Seattle's 0.046—and held a 55–45 xG advantage. Yet the Kraken controlled shot volume at 48% (33–35 on goal) and converted high-danger chances more ruthlessly: 4–3 over the Knights.

J. Daccord (SEA) stopped 32 of 35 shots (0.914 SV%), outperforming his xG model by 0.96 goals. A. Hill (VGK) made 30 saves on 33 shots (0.909 SV%). Seattle also squeezed more from chaos: they created four rebound opportunities despite converting none, a sign of aggressive net-front play.

Both teams were lethal on the rush, each scoring three goals from transitions (Seattle on 39 attempts, Vegas on 35). Neither team could finish at even strength, forcing a shootout where Berkly Catton's wrist shot decided it.

Vegas dominated analytically. Seattle won the game. Daccord was sharper than Hill, and Catton's goal merely confirmed Seattle's edge in execution.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · SO · Apr 9

VGK

SEA

Kraken edge the Golden Knights in a shootout

Chances 4.0 – 3.2Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Golden Knights deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value

VGK

3.96

SEA

3.24

55% of the chances45%

The board read VGK 3, SEA 4. The chances read VGK 4.0, SEA 3.2.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

SEA

+0.8

goals above expected

SEA3.24 expected · 4 scored

Expected

Scored

VGK3.96 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 10:04VGKM. Stone1–0
P2 00:55VGKM. StonePP2–0
P2 17:54SEAJ. McCannPP2–1
P3 01:11VGKB. Howden3–1
P3 06:11SEAB. Catton3–2
P3 09:16SEAB. McMann3–3
SO 00:00VGKM. MarnerPP3–3

+2 more on the full breakdown

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

VGK

55 shots

Final

113 shots

SEA

58 shots

VGK SEA GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

shots · 4 in

shots · 5 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

VGKSEA

2 / 3

1.08 xG

High danger

1 / 4

0.85 xG

1 / 17

2.05 xG

Medium

1 / 17

1.58 xG

0 / 45

0.83 xG

Low

1 / 49

0.81 xG

High-danger looks: VGK 2 of 3, SEA 1 of 4.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

B+

J. Daccord

+1.0

SEA · 32/35

A. Hill

+0.2

VGK · 30/33

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Kraken edge the Golden Knights in a shootout

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 10–10

10:04VGKM. Stone(R. Andersson, N. Hanifin)1–0

2ndshots 13–11

00:55VGKM. Stonepower play(J. Eichel, T. Hertl)2–0
17:54SEAJ. McCannpower play(V. Dunn, C. Stephenson)2–1

3rdshots 8–10

01:11VGKB. Howden(P. Dorofeyev, M. Marner)3–1
06:11SEAB. Catton(A. Larsson, V. Dunn)3–2
09:16SEAB. McMann(J. Eberle)3–3

OTshots 4–2no goals

00:00VGKM. Marnerpower play3–3
00:00SEAM. Benierspower play3–3
00:00SEAB. Cattonpower play3–3

score reads VGK–SEA

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

3.24

SEA chances

Goals their shots were worth

+0.8

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

0.997

SEA puck luck

About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces

51.9%

Shot attempts

Over half — they had the puck more

Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.96Expected goals3.24

VGK 55% of the chance quality

35Shots on goal33

3High-danger chances4

65All attempts (Corsi)70

Adjusted for score: VGK 44% · SEA 56%

Faceoffs · SEA won46%off67%neu43%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

VGK2 / 3 · 1.08 xG

SEA1 / 4 · 0.85 xG

Medium dangermid-range

VGK1 / 17 · 2.05 xG

SEA1 / 17 · 1.58 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

VGK0 / 45 · 0.83 xG

SEA1 / 49 · 0.81 xG

VGK went 1-for-17 from medium danger on 2.05 expected goals — 1.0 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

VGK

3 G · 3.96 xG · -1.0

SEA

4 G · 3.24 xG · +0.8

012345

VGK finished -1.0 against expected, SEA +0.8.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

VGK

WRIST1/31

SLAP0/5

BACKHAND1/6

SNAP0/2

TIP IN0/3

DEFLECTED1/2

WRAP AROUND0/1

POKE0/0

OTHER0/15

SEA

WRIST2/28

SLAP1/8

BACKHAND0/6

SNAP0/7

TIP IN0/1

DEFLECTED0/1

WRAP AROUND0/1

POKE0/1

OTHER0/17

VGK

SEA

Off the rush

3 G on 35

3.38 xG

3 G on 39

2.74 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 2

0.14 xG

0 G on 4

0.29 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: VGK went 1-for-31, SEA 2-for-28. VGK scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

A. Hill

VGK · 30/33 · .909

+0.2

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/40.8-0.1

Medium1/171.6+0.6

Low1/490.8-0.2

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Daccord

SEA · 32/35 · .914

+1.0

saved above expected

B+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger2/31.1-0.9

Medium1/172.0+1.1

Low0/450.8+0.8

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

113 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

VGK

55 shots

Final

113 shots

SEA

58 shots

VGK SEA GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

Each club shoots toward its own end — VGK left, SEA right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

V. Dunn

#29 · D · SEA

0 G · 2 A · 2 SOG · 22:50 on ice

M. Stone

#61 · R · VGK

2 G · 0 A · 4 SOG · 20:13 on ice · +1

R. Andersson

#4 · D · VGK

0 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 29:03 on ice · -1

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Thu, Apr 9

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 11:08 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.5–2.2 Golden Knights victory with 55% win probability—essentially a pick'em with a small edge to Vegas.

Recent form supports this tilt. Vegas is 5–3–2 in its last 10 games; Seattle sits at −22 goal differential over the same stretch. The underlying analytics confirm the edge. Vegas controls 54.0% of expected goals and 52.0% of Corsi at 5v5, establishing territorial dominance. Seattle manages just 46.0% xG and 45.0% Corsi.

But PDO regression complicates Vegas's advantage. The Golden Knights run a 0.983 PDO—underperforming expectation, due for positive reversion. Seattle, at 1.011, is outperforming via luck that could reverse. The model has priced both trajectories; that's why the 55% lean is measured rather than decisive.

Both starters face back-to-back fatigue. J. Daccord handles Seattle's second night; C. Hart does the same for Vegas. Backup appearances or sluggish performances remain possible.

Vegas's offense leans on Brandon Saad (0.91 xG/60, 3G, 6A, 4.1% shooting)—though he's likely out—and Tomas Hertl (0.88 xG/60, 5G, 17A, 4.3% shooting). Hertl's shooting rate warrants attention; variance cuts both ways. Seattle counters with Shane Wright (0.77 xG/60, 8G, 10A, 10.4% shooting) and Berkly Catton (0.68 xG/60, 6G, 8A, 8.8% shooting), both converting above their underlying offensive generation.

Vegas owns the territorial game. Seattle's hot hand is no mirage. The regression thesis tightens an otherwise clearer edge.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

VGK 55%

55%

VGK

Model favorite

55%

45%

VGK50SEA

VGK by 10 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score VGK 2.5–2.2 SEA; 19% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

VGK← edge

edge →SEA

54.0%46.0%

52.0%45.0%

2.522.13

2.112.51

2.121.87

2.101.95

0.9831.011

VGK holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.983 vs 1.011) says SEA has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

VGK

5-3-2

-1 GD · 1d rest

SEA

1-7-2

-22 GD · 1d rest

0.983

VGK PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.011

SEA PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live

The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 46.0%.
The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.

Regression watch

The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Things to watch

The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 46.0%.
The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
J. Daccord is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
C. Hart is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Golden Knights are the hotter team by points pace (5-3-2 in their last 10).
The Kraken are underwater at -22 goal differential over their last 10.
The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

VGK

Expected in goal

C. Hart

back-to-back.909 last start

Backup Akira Schmid · -1.0 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

SEA

Expected in goal

J. Daccord

back-to-back.857 last start

Backup Joey Daccord · -6.2 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

VGK

Brandon Saad3G 6A

0.91 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.1% sh

Tomas Hertl5G 17A

0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.3% sh

SEA

Shane Wright8G 10A

0.77 xG/60 · 4 HD · 10.4% sh

Berkly Catton6G 8A

0.68 xG/60 · 5 HD · 8.8% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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