Backcheck
Pick club
Motion-blurred skater in a New Jersey Devils sweater
← Sat, Apr 11 · the slate
Breakdown · NJD at DET

Devils hold off the Red Wings

FinalSat, Apr 11
NJDNew Jersey Devils5DETDetroit Red Wings3
The verdict · earned

The Devils earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

NJD 5 · DET 3
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 11:15 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Devils beat the Red Wings 5-3, with expected goals validating the result—they controlled 60% of xG (5.60–3.77).

New Jersey's dominance was sharpest in high-danger chances (9–6). J. Allen posted a 0.893 SV% and stopped all six of Detroit's HD chances, while J. Gibson posted 28/32 stops with +1.60 goals saved above expected. Detroit's response—two low-danger goals and two rush tallies on 22 chances—fell short of New Jersey's four rush goals on 30 attempts.

J. Bratt (2G, 1A in 17:01) and D. Hamilton (2A in 21:55) led the Devils' attack, while D. Larkin (2A in 20:08) anchored Detroit's effort.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Apr 11
NJD
5
DET
3

Devils hold off the Red Wings

Chances 5.6 – 3.8Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Devils earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
NJD
5.60
DET
3.77
60% of the chances40%

The board read NJD 5, DET 3. The chances read NJD 5.6, DET 3.8.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
NJD
−0.6
goals above expected
NJD5.60 expected · 5 scored
Expected
Scored
DET3.77 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 09:41DETJ. Faulk0–1
  2. P1 10:40NJDJ. Hughes1–1
  3. P2 11:59DETD. Perron1–2
  4. P2 15:16NJDJ. Bratt2–2
  5. P3 07:00DETE. Finnie2–3
  6. P3 11:18NJDC. Glass3–3
  7. P3 16:26NJDJ. Bratt4–3
+1 more on the full breakdown
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
NJD
49 shots
5
Final
94 shots
DET
45 shots
3
NJD attackDET attack
NJD DET Goal
49
shots · 5 in
45
shots · 3 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
NJDDET
2 / 9
2.66 xG
High danger
0 / 6
1.57 xG
2 / 21
2.41 xG
Medium
1 / 13
1.42 xG
1 / 34
0.53 xG
Low
2 / 39
0.78 xG

The Red Wings went 0 for 6 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A
J. Gibson
+1.6
DET · 28/32
B+
J. Allen
+0.8
NJD · 25/28
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Devils hold off the Red Wings

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 8–13
  1. 09:41DETJ. Faulk(D. Larkin, E. Finnie)0–1
  2. 10:40NJDJ. Hughes(J. Bratt, D. Hamilton)1–1
2ndshots 13–8
  1. 11:59DETD. Perron(J. Compher)1–2
  2. 15:16NJDJ. Bratt(J. Kovacevic, D. Cholowski)2–2
3rdshots 12–7
  1. 07:00DETE. Finnie(L. Raymond, D. Larkin)2–3
  2. 11:18NJDC. Glass(T. Meier, J. Siegenthaler)3–3
  3. 16:26NJDJ. Bratt(J. Hughes, C. Brown)4–3
  4. 19:00NJDD. Mercerempty net(N. Hischier, D. Hamilton)5–3

score reads NJD–DET

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
5.60
NJD chances
Goals their shots were worth
−0.6
Finishing
Goals below what those chances were worth
1.026
NJD puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
52.5%
Shot attempts
Over half — they had the puck more
Split by club

Who controlled the game

5.60Expected goals3.77
NJD 60% of the chance quality
33Shots on goal28
9High-danger chances6
64All attempts (Corsi)58
Adjusted for score: NJD 53% · DET 47%
Faceoffs · DET won54%off77%neu42%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
NJD2 / 9 · 2.66 xG
DET0 / 6 · 1.57 xG
Medium dangermid-range
NJD2 / 21 · 2.41 xG
DET1 / 13 · 1.42 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
NJD1 / 34 · 0.53 xG
DET2 / 39 · 0.78 xG

DET went 0-for-6 from high danger on 1.57 expected goals — 1.6 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
NJD
5 G · 5.60 xG · -0.6
DET
3 G · 3.77 xG · -0.8
0123456

NJD finished -0.6 against expected, DET -0.8.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
NJD
SNAP1/10
WRIST4/23
TIP IN0/3
SLAP0/4
BACKHAND0/6
DEFLECTED0/1
BAT0/1
POKE0/1
OTHER0/15
DET
SNAP2/20
WRIST0/6
TIP IN0/8
SLAP0/6
BACKHAND1/4
DEFLECTED0/1
BAT0/0
POKE0/0
OTHER0/13
NJD
DET
Off the rush
4 G on 30
4.05 xG
2 G on 22
1.80 xG
Off rebounds
0 G on 10
1.35 xG
1 G on 6
1.36 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: NJD went 1-for-10, DET 2-for-20. NJD scored 4 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
J. Allen
NJD · 25/28 · .893
+0.8
saved above expected
B+
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/61.6+1.6
Medium1/131.4+0.4
Low2/390.8-1.2

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Gibson
DET · 28/32 · .875
+1.6
saved above expected
A
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger2/92.7+0.7
Medium2/212.4+0.4
Low1/340.5-0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

94 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
NJD
49 shots
5
Final
94 shots
DET
45 shots
3
NJD attackDET attack
NJD DET Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — NJD left, DET right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
J. Bratt
#63 · L · NJD
2 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 17:01 on ice · +2
D. Hamilton
#7 · D · NJD
0 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 21:55 on ice · +3
D. Larkin
#71 · C · DET
0 G · 2 A · 4 SOG · 20:08 on ice · -1
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sat, Apr 11
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 11:13 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.5–2.6 goal game with Detroit at 51% to win—about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

New Jersey arrives hot: 5-4-1 over their last ten games. Detroit, by contrast, is underwater at -6 goal differential in the same span, bleeding chances without converting them.

The underlying 5v5 picture is tightly matched. New Jersey holds 50.0% expected goals share and 51.0% Corsi; Detroit sits at 49.0% on both metrics. This is genuine parity, not a talent gap.

But New Jersey's PDO at 0.971 tells a regression story: the Devils are running cold and due for positive correction. Detroit's 0.985 is healthier, suggesting their recent struggles aren't yet fully reflected in their underlying numbers.

New Jersey's offense runs through Timo Meier, who carries 1.08 xG/60 with 13 goals and 15 assists. He has 3 high-danger chances on a 6.7% shooting rate, suggesting he's pressing to convert. Jack Hughes adds 0.88 xG/60, 18 goals and 17 assists; his 11.5% shooting rate raises questions about whether that efficiency will hold.

Detroit counters with Alex DeBrincat, who generates 0.88 xG/60 alongside 17 goals and 28 assists. He's scored 2 high-danger goals while shooting 9.0%. Marco Kasper—0.81 xG/60, 7 goals and 8 assists—serves as Detroit's secondary threat with 1 high-danger goal on 6.1% shooting.

Defensively, New Jersey's Johnathan Kovacevic is the weak link; Axel Sandin-Pellikka represents Detroit's vulnerability.

New Jersey's recent run carries weight, and the PDO gap favors positive regression. But Detroit's underlying play hasn't deteriorated nearly as much as the -6 differential suggests. This remains a genuine toss-up.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

DET 51%
51%
DET
Model favorite
49%
51%
NJD50DET

DET by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score NJD 2.5–2.6 DET; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
NJD← edge
edge →DET
50.0%49.0%
51.0%49.0%
2.452.38
2.502.50
1.661.73
2.232.07
0.9710.985

The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (0.971 vs 0.985) says DET has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
NJD
5-4-1
-1 GD · 2d rest
DET
3-6-1
-6 GD · 2d rest
0.971
NJD PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.985
DET PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Regression watch
  • The Devils' PDO is 0.971 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
  • The Devils are the hotter team by points pace (5-4-1 in their last 10).
  • The Red Wings are underwater at -6 goal differential over their last 10.
  • The Devils' PDO is 0.971 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
NJD
Expected in goal
J. Allen
2 days rest.862 last start
Backup Jacob Markstrom · -11.9 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

DET
Expected in goal
J. Gibson
2 days rest.867 last start
Backup John Gibson · +11.7 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
NJD
Timo Meier13G 15A
1.08 xG/60 · 3 HD · 6.7% sh
Jack Hughes18G 17A
0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 11.5% sh
DET
Alex DeBrincat17G 28A
0.88 xG/60 · 2 HD · 9.0% sh
Marco Kasper7G 8A
0.81 xG/60 · 1 HD · 6.1% sh
Keep going

Where to next

Back to the front page