The Blues stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.27–4.04 and won anyway.
St. Louis stole this 5-3 win. Chicago controlled 55% of expected goals (4.04–3.27)—a 13-point margin—and walked away losing. The Blackhawks hit shot attempts 55–45, dominated high-danger chances 8–3, and still couldn't finish.
This was goaltending variance masquerading as strategy. J. Hofer converted a bad situation into elite performance: 31 saves on 34 shots, posting a 0.912 SV% and stopping 1.04 goals above expected. Meanwhile, A. Soderblom couldn't replicate his team's pressure. Twenty-three stops on 28 shots, 0.821 SV%, gave up 1.73 goals above expected—a three-goal swing entirely traceable to the crease.
Chicago's execution crumbled under volume. The Blackhawks scored two goals from low-danger areas (the kind of mistake a starting goaltender shouldn't allow). On the rush, though, they were lethal: three goals on 30 chances. St. Louis countered with five goals on 27 rush chances—marginally more efficient, decisively more ruthless.
Both teams crashed the net effectively, generating five rebound opportunities each. Neither converted. St. Louis's real edge: they outperformed their expected goals by 1.7, suggesting either elite finishing or fortunate bounces. In a 5-3 game decided by variance, it amounted to the same thing.
Ilya Mikheyev's wrist shot from the slot at 13:35 of the third period proved the turning point, though the scoreboard reflected luck more than dominance.
