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Breakdown · NYR at DAL

Stars shut out the Rangers, 2-0

FinalSat, Apr 11

The verdict · earned

The Stars earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

NYR 0 · DAL 2

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 11:23 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Dallas's expected goals (4.71–3.17, 60–40 split) suggested the Stars should have won bigger than 2-0. They generated 10 high-danger chances to New York's 3, a dominance the scoreline understates.

The quality gap was the night's defining edge. Dallas's shots averaged 0.110 expected goals each; the Rangers' 0.056. With shot volume nearly even (19–22 on goal), that premium in danger meant Dallas had the better looks, and they converted twice while New York converted none.

J. Robertson's backhander from the doorstep (19:01, P3) opened the scoring. M. Duchene assisted twice; M. Bourque once. Both teams underperformed their expected totals—Dallas by 2.71 goals, New York by 3.17—but only Dallas had the volume to convert multiple chances into a win.

J. Oettinger stopped all 22 shots (1.000 SV%, +3.17 vs expected). I. Shesterkin stopped 17 of 18 (0.944 SV%, +3.71 vs expected), denying 9 of 10 high-danger chances. Both overperformed their models.

The breakdown in twelve frames

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Every number is from this page

Final · Apr 11

NYR

DAL

Stars shut out the Rangers, 2-0

Chances 3.2 – 4.7Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Stars earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value

NYR

3.17

DAL

4.71

40% of the chances60%

The board read NYR 0, DAL 2. The chances read NYR 3.2, DAL 4.7.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

DAL

−2.7

goals above expected

DAL4.71 expected · 2 scored

Expected

Scored

NYR3.17 expected · 0 scored

Expected

Scored

The Rangers left 3.2 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P3 12:49DALJ. RobertsonPP0–1
P3 19:01DALJ. RobertsonEN0–2

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

NYR

38 shots

Final

70 shots

DAL

32 shots

NYR DAL GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 0 in

shots · 2 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

NYRDAL

0 / 3

0.76 xG

High danger

1 / 10

3.51 xG

0 / 17

1.89 xG

Medium

1 / 8

0.86 xG

0 / 37

0.52 xG

Low

0 / 25

0.34 xG

The Rangers went 0 for 3 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

A+

I. Shesterkin

+3.7

NYR · 17/18

A+

J. Oettinger

+3.2

DAL · 22/22

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Stars shut out the Rangers, 2-0

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 5–3no goals

2ndshots 8–6no goals

3rdshots 9–10

12:49DALJ. Robertsonpower play(M. Duchene, W. Johnston)0–1
19:01DALJ. Robertsonempty net(M. Duchene, M. Bourque)0–2

score reads NYR–DAL

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

4.71

DAL chances

Goals their shots were worth

−2.7

Finishing

Goals below what those chances were worth

1.046

DAL puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

43.0%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.17Expected goals4.71

DAL 60% of the chance quality

22Shots on goal19

3High-danger chances10

57All attempts (Corsi)43

Adjusted for score: NYR 58% · DAL 42%

Faceoffs · DAL won38%off50%neu53%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

NYR0 / 3 · 0.76 xG

DAL1 / 10 · 3.51 xG

Medium dangermid-range

NYR0 / 17 · 1.89 xG

DAL1 / 8 · 0.86 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

NYR0 / 37 · 0.52 xG

DAL0 / 25 · 0.34 xG

DAL went 1-for-10 from high danger on 3.51 expected goals — 2.5 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

NYR

0 G · 3.17 xG · -3.2

DAL

2 G · 4.71 xG · -2.7

0123456

NYR finished -3.2 against expected, DAL -2.7.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

NYR

SNAP0/17

WRIST0/9

TIP IN0/4

SLAP0/5

BACKHAND0/3

WRAP AROUND0/0

OTHER0/19

DAL

SNAP0/14

WRIST0/8

TIP IN0/4

SLAP0/2

BACKHAND2/3

WRAP AROUND0/1

OTHER0/11

NYR

DAL

Off the rush

0 G on 25

2.02 xG

0 G on 19

2.12 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 3

0.54 xG

2 G on 5

1.67 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: NYR went 0-for-17, DAL 0-for-14.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

I. Shesterkin

NYR · 17/18 · .944

+3.7

saved above expected

A+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/103.5+2.5

Medium1/80.9-0.1

Low0/250.3+0.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Oettinger

DAL · 22/22 · 1.000

+3.2

saved above expected

A+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/30.8+0.8

Medium0/171.9+1.9

Low0/370.5+0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

70 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

NYR

38 shots

Final

70 shots

DAL

32 shots

NYR DAL GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — NYR left, DAL right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

J. Robertson

#21 · L · DAL

2 G · 0 A · 2 SOG · 20:58 on ice · +1

M. Duchene

#95 · C · DAL

0 G · 2 A · 4 SOG · 18:34 on ice · +1

M. Bourque

#22 · C · DAL

0 G · 1 A · 0 SOG · 19:10 on ice · +1

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sat, Apr 11

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 11:16 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Dallas enters as a genuine coin flip: the model projects a Rangers 2.3–2.5 range with the Stars holding 54% win probability. That's the tightest projection you'll see.

The underlying story favors Dallas. The Stars own the 5v5 shot quality battle at 51.0% expected goals against the Rangers' 48.0%, even though New York edges possession at 49.0% Corsi to Dallas's 47.0%. That gap between volume and danger suggests Dallas is more efficient with its opportunities. But the Stars' 1.024 PDO signals luck at work—expect some regression before the playoff push.

New York's rest advantage is concrete. The Rangers have three days between games while Dallas arrives on one day of rest. That matters in the third period, and it matters more if J. Oettinger sees back-to-back duty or Dallas deploys him fatigued.

Offensively, New York leans on two threats. Adam Sykora carries 0.91 expected goals per 60 minutes while posting 3 goals and 1 assist on a remarkable 20.0% shooting rate—unsustainable but lethal while hot. Gabe Perreault (0.79 xG/60) provides depth with 8 goals, 11 assists, and 2 high-danger chances at 13.1%.

Dallas counters through Jason Robertson and Michael Bunting. Robertson leads with 0.96 xG/60, 25 goals, 21 assists, and 2 high-danger opportunities, shooting 12.4%. Bunting chips in 0.83 xG/60 with 8 goals and 14 assists on just 7.6%—a player whose luck is bound to normalize.

Neither team scores from high-danger areas at rates that match opportunity (0% HD goal conversion for each). Vincent Iorio is New York's defensive weak link; Tyler Myers is Dallas's. In a game this tight, goaltender support becomes critical.

Dallas owns the underlying play; New York holds rest and goaltending advantage. Which matters more—structure or circumstance—will decide this.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

DAL 54%

54%

DAL

Model favorite

46%

54%

NYR50DAL

DAL by 8 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score NYR 2.3–2.5 DAL; 19% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

NYR← edge

edge →DAL

48.0%51.0%

49.0%47.0%

2.262.36

2.402.29

1.882.07

1.901.68

1.0091.024

DAL holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.009 vs 1.024) says DAL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

NYR

5-4-1

+14 GD · 3d rest

DAL

4-5-1

-2 GD · 1d rest

1.009

NYR PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.024

DAL PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live

The Stars own the underlying play — 51.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.

Regression watch

The Stars' PDO is 1.024 — running hot, expect some regression.

Things to watch

The Stars own the underlying play — 51.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.
J. Oettinger is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Stars' PDO is 1.024 — running hot, expect some regression.
The Rangers have 2 more days of rest.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

NYR

Expected in goal

I. Shesterkin

3 days rest.846 last start

Backup Igor Shesterkin · +21.3 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

DAL

Expected in goal

J. Oettinger

back-to-back.871 last start

Backup Jake Oettinger · +5.7 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

NYR

Adam Sykora3G 1A

0.91 xG/60 · 0 HD · 20.0% sh

Gabe Perreault8G 11A

0.79 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.1% sh

DAL

Jason Robertson25G 21A

0.96 xG/60 · 2 HD · 12.4% sh

Michael Bunting8G 14A

0.83 xG/60 · 0 HD · 7.6% sh

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Where to next

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