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Motion-blurred skater in a Montreal Canadiens sweater
← Sun, Apr 12 · the slate
Breakdown · MTL at NYI

J. Fowler stands tall as the Canadiens edge the Islanders

FinalSun, Apr 12
MTLMontreal Canadiens4NYINew York Islanders1
The verdict · stolen

The Canadiens stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.97–4.48 and won anyway.

MTL 4 · NYI 1
◆ By the ModelJun 16, 1:12 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Montreal's 4–1 win contradicts the underlying play: the Islanders created more dangerous chances, posting 4.48 expected goals to Montreal's 3.97 (a 53–47 split). The Canadiens won anyway.

J. Fowler made it possible. The Montreal goaltender stopped 32 of 33 shots (0.970 SV%) and saved 3.48 goals above expected — a performance that transformed a likely loss into a rout. I. Sorokin, at the other end, posted a 0.818 SV% on 18 of 22 saves, surrendering the margin that decides close games.

The Islanders' collapse in the danger zone cemented the defeat. They went 0 for 8 on high-danger chances despite generating an 8–6 edge in them. Montreal was ruthless: 3 of 6 in the high-danger area (50%). The Islanders wasted their possession advantage — 60% of shot attempts (33–22 on net) but could not convert the chances that mattered. They generated 8 rebound opportunities and converted zero.

Z. Bolduc's snap shot from the doorstep in the third period (19:45) shifted momentum early.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Apr 12
MTL
4
NYI
1

J. Fowler stands tall as the Canadiens edge the Islanders

Chances 4.0 – 4.5Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Islanders deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value
MTL
3.97
NYI
4.48
47% of the chances53%

The board read MTL 4, NYI 1. The chances read MTL 4.0, NYI 4.5.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
MTL
+0.0
goals above expected
MTL3.97 expected · 4 scored
Expected
Scored
NYI4.48 expected · 1 scored
Expected
Scored

The Islanders left 3.5 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P2 15:56MTLN. Suzuki1–0
  2. P2 16:24MTLI. DemidovPP2–0
  3. P2 16:51MTLA. Newhook3–0
  4. P3 08:45NYIC. Cizikas3–1
  5. P3 19:45MTLZ. Bolduc4–1
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
MTL
36 shots
4
Final
88 shots
NYI
52 shots
1
MTL attackNYI attack
MTL NYI Goal
36
shots · 4 in
52
shots · 1 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
MTLNYI
3 / 6
2.07 xG
High danger
0 / 8
1.74 xG
1 / 13
1.51 xG
Medium
1 / 18
1.90 xG
0 / 29
0.40 xG
Low
0 / 40
0.84 xG

The Islanders went 0 for 8 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A+
J. Fowler
+3.5
MTL · 32/33
C
I. Sorokin
−0.0
NYI · 18/22
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

J. Fowler stands tall as the Canadiens edge the Islanders

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 10–9no goals
    2ndshots 9–6
    1. 15:56MTLN. Suzuki(J. Slafkovský, L. Hutson)1–0
    2. 16:24MTLI. Demidovpower play(N. Suzuki, L. Hutson)2–0
    3. 16:51MTLA. Newhook(Z. Bolduc, D. Reinbacher)3–0
    3rdshots 3–18
    1. 08:45NYIC. Cizikas(S. Mayfield, R. Pulock)3–1
    2. 19:45MTLZ. Bolduc(A. Newhook, K. Dach)4–1

    score reads MTL–NYI

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    3.97
    MTL chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    +0.0
    Finishing
    Goals above what those chances were worth
    1.068
    MTL puck luck
    Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
    42.1%
    Shot attempts
    Under half — they were outshot
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    3.97Expected goals4.48
    NYI 53% of the chance quality
    22Shots on goal33
    6High-danger chances8
    48All attempts (Corsi)66
    Adjusted for score: MTL 39% · NYI 61%
    Faceoffs · NYI won73%off47%neu41%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    MTL3 / 6 · 2.07 xG
    NYI0 / 8 · 1.74 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    MTL1 / 13 · 1.51 xG
    NYI1 / 18 · 1.90 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    MTL0 / 29 · 0.40 xG
    NYI0 / 40 · 0.84 xG

    NYI went 0-for-8 from high danger on 1.74 expected goals — 1.7 left on the table.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    MTL
    4 G · 3.97 xG · +0.0
    NYI
    1 G · 4.48 xG · -3.5
    012345

    MTL finished +0.0 against expected, NYI -3.5.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    MTL
    SNAP4/27
    BACKHAND0/2
    WRIST0/3
    TIP IN0/3
    SLAP0/1
    DEFLECTED0/0
    OTHER0/12
    NYI
    SNAP0/29
    BACKHAND0/9
    WRIST1/6
    TIP IN0/4
    SLAP0/3
    DEFLECTED0/1
    OTHER0/14
    MTL
    NYI
    Off the rush
    3 G on 24
    3.14 xG
    0 G on 33
    2.72 xG
    Off rebounds
    1 G on 2
    0.40 xG
    0 G on 8
    1.21 xG

    Snap shots carried the volume: MTL went 4-for-27, NYI 0-for-29. MTL scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    J. Fowler
    MTL · 32/33 · .970
    +3.5
    saved above expected
    A+
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger0/81.7+1.7
    Medium1/181.9+0.9
    Low0/400.8+0.8

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    I. Sorokin
    NYI · 18/22 · .818
    -0.0
    saved above expected
    C
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger3/62.1-0.9
    Medium1/131.5+0.5
    Low0/290.4+0.4

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    88 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    MTL
    36 shots
    4
    Final
    88 shots
    NYI
    52 shots
    1
    MTL attackNYI attack
    MTL NYI Goal

    Each club shoots toward its own end — MTL left, NYI right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    L. Hutson
    #48 · D · —
    0 G · 2 A · 0 SOG · 22:51 on ice · +2
    N. Suzuki
    #14 · C · —
    1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG · 18:29 on ice · +1
    Z. Bolduc
    #76 · R · —
    1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 14:15 on ice · +1
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    What the model said beforehand

    Before the game

    Written Sun, Apr 12
    Open the pre-game read
    Written from the numbers

    The read

    Edited for clarity
    ◆ By the ModelJun 16, 1:14 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

    This is basically a toss-up. The model projects a 2.5-2.7 final margin favoring the Islanders, with New York at 52% win probability—as close to a pick'em as the numbers offer.

    Montreal has the form edge: 8-2-0 over their last 10 games tells you they're playing winning hockey. New York is slumping, minus-7 in goal differential over the same stretch. But both teams produce identical underlying play at 5v5—48.0% expected goals share and 49.0% Corsi percentage. The separation lies in efficiency. Montreal's 1.018 PDO suggests they're running hot enough that regression is likely. New York sits at 0.993, slightly suppressed.

    Both goalies work back-to-backs: I. Sorokin and J. Dobes could be backed up, or both starters could play tired. Either way, goal-mouth vulnerability is on the menu for both sides.

    Cole Caufield is Montreal's primary offensive engine—33 goals on 0.97 expected goals per 60 minutes, with 20.0% shooting efficiency that reflects lethal conversion on high-danger looks (1 HD goal). Brendan Gallagher operates as the secondary option with 0.89 xG/60, though his 4.6% shooting rate (5 goals, 1 HD goal) indicates underperformance relative to the quality of his chances.

    New York's offense centers on Anders Lee, who leads in expected output: 1.20 xG/60, 9 goals, 20 assists, and 2 high-danger goals that cluster in dangerous ice. Bo Horvat offers secondary punch at 0.87 xG/60 with 18 goals and 3 HD goals—more efficient on lesser volume.

    Defensively, Mike Matheson is Montreal's weak link. Alexander Romanov carries that burden for New York. Both teams show 0% high-danger and 0% rebound goal rates in the data provided, though these figures likely reflect sample-size noise rather than true organizational gaps.

    Three Things to Watch

    • Goaltender durability on the back-to-back—I. Sorokin and J. Dobes both face fatigue or bench time.
    • Cole Caufield's regression math. At 20.0% shooting, the pendulum swings back.
    • Anders Lee's xG-to-goal conversion. At 1.20 xG/60 with only 9 goals, is New York leaving production on the table?
    What the model said beforehand

    The model's lean

    NYI 52%
    52%
    NYI
    Model favorite
    48%
    52%
    MTL50NYI

    NYI by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score MTL 2.5–2.7 NYI; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

    Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
    Season rates · 5v5

    Tale of the tape

    NHL stats API · our xG
    MTL← edge
    edge →NYI
    48.0%48.0%
    49.0%49.0%
    2.412.48
    2.622.69
    2.241.78
    1.961.94
    1.0180.993

    NYI holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.018 vs 0.993) says MTL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

    Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
    Form · Last 10
    MTL
    8-2-0
    +7 GD · 1d rest
    NYI
    4-6-0
    -7 GD · 1d rest
    1.018
    MTL PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    0.993
    NYI PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    What decides it

    Keys to the game

    Regression watch
    • MTL PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
    Things to watch
    • I. Sorokin is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
    • J. Dobes is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
    • MTL is the hotter team by points pace (8-2-0 in their last 10).
    • NYI is underwater at -7 goal differential over the last 10.
    • MTL PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
    Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

    Lineups

    NHL box score
    MTL
    Expected in goal
    J. Dobes
    back-to-back.848 last start
    Backup Jakub Dobes · +17.3 GSAx this season
    Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    NYI
    Expected in goal
    I. Sorokin
    back-to-back.867 last start
    Backup Ilya Sorokin · +25.3 GSAx this season
    Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

    Computed danger · scouting

    Players to watch

    NHL stats API · our xG
    MTL
    Cole Caufield33G 16A
    0.97 xG/60 · 1 HD · 20.0% sh
    Brendan Gallagher5G 13A
    0.89 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.6% sh
    NYI
    Anders Lee9G 20A
    1.20 xG/60 · 2 HD · 6.4% sh
    Bo Horvat18G 10A
    0.87 xG/60 · 3 HD · 12.8% sh
    Keep going

    Where to next

    Back to the front page