The Bruins stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.62–4.13 and won anyway.
The Bruins won 3–2, but the Blue Jackets' underlying numbers told a different story. Columbus generated 4.13 expected goals against Boston's 3.62, held 61% of shot attempts, and still lost. The culprit: a catastrophic underperformance on their scoring chances. The Blue Jackets underperformed their xG by 2.13 goals—a chasm that doesn't close often.
Quality mattered more than volume. Boston squeezed 0.081 xG per shot compared to Columbus's 0.061, meaning the Bruins generated more dangerous looks despite being outshot. That edge materialized in net. J. Korpisalo (BOS) stopped 2.13 goals above expected, while J. Greaves (CBJ) was merely 0.62 above.
The Blue Jackets couldn't convert when it mattered. They went 0–5 on high-danger chances and were equally inefficient on the rush—2 goals on 36 chances. Boston, meanwhile, went 0–7 on high-danger opportunities, suggesting neither team was efficient in the dirty areas. But Boston was lethal enough on the rush: 2 goals on 26 chances.
Mark Kastelic's snap shot from a sharp angle (P3, 10:22) was the pivot. It gave Boston breathing room late and, given Columbus's wasteful performance, enough cushion to hold on.
The turning point wasn't dominance. It was Columbus doing everything right on paper and nothing right in execution—a reminder that possession and volume tell incomplete stories in hockey.
