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← Mon, Apr 13 · the slate
Breakdown · DAL at TOR

Stars run the Maple Leafs off the ice on the underlying numbers

FinalMon, Apr 13
DALDallas Stars6TORToronto Maple Leafs5
The verdict · earned

The Stars earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

DAL 6 · TOR 5
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 11:48 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Stars dominated the underlying metrics in a 6-5 win, controlling 62% of expected goals (3.94–2.40) while generating five times as many high-danger chances (5–1). Yet Toronto's efficiency muted the gap: the Leafs overperformed their xG by 2.60 goals, nearly matching Dallas's output despite inferior play.

The disparities were stark. Shot attempts favored Dallas 33–27, and the Maple Leafs mustered just 0.047 expected goals per shot attempt versus Dallas's 0.069—a marked quality-of-chances gap. The Stars converted 40% of their high-danger opportunities. Toronto was lethal from the rush, scoring twice on 27 chances; Dallas cashed four goals on 28 rushing looks.

Both teams benefited from variance. Dallas overperformed its xG by 2.06 goals, but the Leafs' fortune was the more dramatic outlier: 2.60 goals better than expected is elite finishing or the luck of a thousand bounces.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Apr 13
DAL
6
TOR
5

Stars run the Maple Leafs off the ice on the underlying numbers

Chances 3.9 – 2.4Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Stars earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
DAL
3.94
TOR
2.40
62% of the chances38%

The board read DAL 6, TOR 5. The chances read DAL 3.9, TOR 2.4.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
DAL
+2.1
goals above expected
DAL3.94 expected · 6 scored
Expected
Scored
TOR2.40 expected · 5 scored
Expected
Scored

The Stars scored 2.1 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 02:14TORJ. TavaresPP0–1
  2. P1 14:35TORJ. Quillan0–2
  3. P1 15:51TORW. Nylander0–3
  4. P2 00:52DALM. Bourque1–3
  5. P2 05:31DALM. Bourque2–3
  6. P2 09:29DALJ. Robertson3–3
  7. P3 01:40TORM. Domi3–4
+4 more on the full breakdown
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
DAL
47 shots
6
Final
87 shots
TOR
40 shots
5
DAL attackTOR attack
DAL TOR Goal
47
shots · 6 in
40
shots · 5 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
DALTOR
2 / 5
1.15 xG
High danger
1 / 1
0.25 xG
4 / 20
2.26 xG
Medium
4 / 14
1.61 xG
0 / 32
0.52 xG
Low
0 / 36
0.55 xG

The Stars buried 2 of 5 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
D-
A. Akhtyamov
−1.1
TOR · 27/32
F
C. DeSmith
−2.6
DAL · 22/27
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Stars run the Maple Leafs off the ice on the underlying numbers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 7–9
  1. 02:14TORJ. Tavarespower play(W. Nylander)0–1
  2. 14:35TORJ. Quillan(S. Lorentz)0–2
  3. 15:51TORW. Nylander(J. McCabe, S. Benoit)0–3
2ndshots 17–8
  1. 00:52DALM. Bourque1–3
  2. 05:31DALM. Bourque(J. Robertson, M. Duchene)2–3
  3. 09:29DALJ. Robertson(M. Duchene, M. Bourque)3–3
3rdshots 9–10
  1. 01:40TORM. Domi(W. Nylander, M. Knies)3–4
  2. 04:19TORN. Robertson(T. Stecher, M. Knies)3–5
  3. 08:18DALW. Johnstonpower play(M. Rantanen, T. Harley)4–5
  4. 09:38DALA. Hyry5–5
  5. 14:52DALM. Bourque(M. Duchene, A. Petrovic)6–5

score reads DAL–TOR

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
3.94
DAL chances
Goals their shots were worth
+2.1
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.007
DAL puck luck
About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
52.8%
Shot attempts
Over half — they had the puck more
Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.94Expected goals2.40
DAL 62% of the chance quality
33Shots on goal27
5High-danger chances1
57All attempts (Corsi)51
Adjusted for score: DAL 56% · TOR 44%
Faceoffs · TOR won32%off50%neu36%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
DAL2 / 5 · 1.15 xG
TOR1 / 1 · 0.25 xG
Medium dangermid-range
DAL4 / 20 · 2.26 xG
TOR4 / 14 · 1.61 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
DAL0 / 32 · 0.52 xG
TOR0 / 36 · 0.55 xG

TOR went 4-for-14 from medium danger on 1.61 expected goals — 2.4 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
DAL
6 G · 3.94 xG · +2.1
TOR
5 G · 2.40 xG · +2.6
01234567

DAL finished +2.1 against expected, TOR +2.6.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
DAL
WRIST3/25
SNAP2/10
TIP IN0/6
SLAP0/2
BACKHAND0/3
WRAP AROUND0/0
DEFLECTED0/0
BAT0/0
POKE0/0
OTHER1/11
TOR
WRIST3/24
SNAP0/5
TIP IN0/1
SLAP0/4
BACKHAND0/1
WRAP AROUND0/2
DEFLECTED1/1
BAT1/1
POKE0/1
OTHER0/11
DAL
TOR
Off the rush
4 G on 28
2.65 xG
2 G on 27
1.77 xG
Off rebounds
2 G on 4
0.72 xG
3 G on 4
0.52 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: DAL went 3-for-25, TOR 3-for-24. DAL scored 4 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
C. DeSmith
DAL · 22/27 · .815
-2.6
saved above expected
F
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger1/10.3-0.8
Medium4/141.6-2.4
Low0/360.6+0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

A. Akhtyamov
TOR · 27/32 · .844
-1.1
saved above expected
D-
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger2/51.1-0.8
Medium4/202.3-1.7
Low0/320.5+0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

87 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
DAL
47 shots
6
Final
87 shots
TOR
40 shots
5
DAL attackTOR attack
DAL TOR Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — DAL left, TOR right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
M. Bourque
#22 · C · DAL
3 G · 1 A · 7 SOG · 15:56 on ice · +1
W. Nylander
#88 · R · TOR
1 G · 2 A · 3 SOG · 22:50 on ice · -1
M. Duchene
#95 · C · DAL
0 G · 3 A · 2 SOG · 18:36 on ice · +2
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Mon, Apr 13
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 11:30 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Dallas owns the underlying play—51.0% 5v5 expected goals to Toronto's 46.0%—and the model gives them a 53% win probability. Expected score: 2.5 to 2.4. That's as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

The form check reinforces it. The Stars are 5-4-1 over their last 10; Toronto is underwater at -17 goal differential in the same stretch. But Dallas's results are running ahead of what structure alone would produce. Their PDO sits at 1.024—luck is elevating their finish—and they've recorded 0% of their goals on high-danger chances and 0% on rebounds. That run stops eventually.

Toronto's real problem isn't luck; it's depth. Auston Matthews hasn't played in 32 days and is likely out, removing their most dangerous player—1.10 xG/60, 17 goals, 1 high-danger marker. John Tavares fills the void at 0.91 xG/60 with 15 goals and 24 assists, including 3 high-danger goals, and his 12.4% shooting rate is sustainable.

Dallas rides Jason Robertson. He generates 0.96 xG/60, has 25 goals and 21 assists, and has buried 2 high-danger chances at 12.4% shooting. Michael Bunting shares the load at 0.83 xG/60 with 8 goals and 14 assists, though his 7.6% shooting looks stretched. Bo Groulx is Toronto's defensive weak link; Tyler Myers is Dallas's.

The model's near-even split is justified. Superiority in play is offset by unsustainable results and the absence of Toronto's best player. This is genuinely a coin flip.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

DAL 53%
53%
DAL
Model favorite
53%
47%
DAL50TOR

DAL by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score DAL 2.5–2.4 TOR; 19% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
DAL← edge
edge →TOR
51.0%46.0%
47.0%45.0%
2.362.24
2.292.67
2.072.09
1.682.52
1.0241.002

DAL holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.024 vs 1.002) says DAL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
DAL
5-4-1
+1 GD · 2d rest
TOR
3-6-1
-17 GD · 2d rest
1.024
DAL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.002
TOR PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live
  • The Stars own the underlying play — 51.0% 5v5 xG vs 46.0%.
Regression watch
  • The Stars' PDO is 1.024 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
  • The Stars own the underlying play — 51.0% 5v5 xG vs 46.0%.
  • The Stars are the hotter team by points pace (5-4-1 in their last 10).
  • The Maple Leafs are underwater at -17 goal differential over their last 10.
  • The Stars' PDO is 1.024 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
DAL
Expected in goal
J. Oettinger
2 days rest1.000 last start
Backup Jake Oettinger · +5.7 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

TOR
Expected in goal
J. Woll
2 days rest.826 last start
Backup Joseph Woll · -6.6 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
DAL
Jason Robertson25G 21A
0.96 xG/60 · 2 HD · 12.4% sh
Michael Bunting8G 14A
0.83 xG/60 · 0 HD · 7.6% sh
TOR
Auston Matthews17G 13A
1.10 xG/60 · 1 HD · 10.6% sh
John Tavares15G 24A
0.91 xG/60 · 3 HD · 12.4% sh
Keep going

Where to next

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