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Motion-blurred skater in a St. Louis Blues sweater
← Mon, Apr 13 · the slate
Breakdown · MIN at STL

Blues pull away from the Wild

FinalMon, Apr 13
MINMinnesota Wild3STLSt. Louis Blues6
The verdict · coin flip

The Blues won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

MIN 3 · STL 6
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 11:49 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Blues' 6-3 win masked the underlying play. Expected goals told the truer story: the Wild had the slight edge (4.47 to 4.21), yet walked out empty. The Blues' decisive margin came not from dominance but from execution—goaltending and shot placement overrode nearly equal play.

J. Hofer was the difference. He stopped 28 of 31 shots (0.903 SV%) and ran 1.47 goals above expected. F. Gustavsson faced 21 shots and stopped 16 (0.762 SV%), underperforming expectation by 0.79 goals. Against the run of play, one goalie heisted a win that xG didn't gift them.

The Blues' edge came in tight spaces and rush timing. They converted 4 of 8 high-danger chances (50%), while the Wild had six such opportunities. On the rush, both teams struck: the Blues 4 goals on 26 chances, the Wild 2 on 27. The variance in conversion rates—not in volume—separated them.

The turning point arrived in the first period. Jimmy Snuggerud's wrist shot from the high slot (P3, 16:56) gave the Blues an early lead they never surrendered. Behind that moment lay the real contest: not who hemmed whom in the offensive zone, but who converted.

Rebound chaos hurt both sides—the Blues created four rebound opportunities without converting any; the Wild created five, equally fruitless. Neither team cashed the chaotic chances, which meant discipline and positioning (or luck) determined the outcome more than second-chance clutter.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Apr 13
MIN
3
STL
6

Blues pull away from the Wild

Chances 4.5 – 4.2Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Blues took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value
MIN
4.47
STL
4.21
52% of the chances49%

The board read MIN 3, STL 6. The chances read MIN 4.5, STL 4.2.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
STL
+1.8
goals above expected
STL4.21 expected · 6 scored
Expected
Scored
MIN4.47 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored

The Blues scored 1.8 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 01:22STLC. Parayko0–1
  2. P1 14:46MINN. Foligno1–1
  3. P1 19:13MIND. YurovPP2–1
  4. P2 01:59MINM. McCarronSH3–1
  5. P2 04:04STLO. Stenberg3–2
  6. P2 04:31STLP. Buchnevich3–3
  7. P2 16:41STLT. Lindstein3–4
+2 more on the full breakdown
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
MIN
45 shots
3
Final
81 shots
STL
36 shots
6
MIN attackSTL attack
MIN STL Goal
45
shots · 3 in
36
shots · 6 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
MINSTL
2 / 6
1.56 xG
High danger
4 / 8
2.52 xG
1 / 20
2.56 xG
Medium
1 / 11
1.24 xG
0 / 27
0.35 xG
Low
1 / 27
0.46 xG

The Blues buried 4 of 8 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
B+
J. Hofer
+1.5
STL · 28/31
D-
F. Gustavsson
−0.8
MIN · 16/21
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Blues pull away from the Wild

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 14–7
  1. 01:22STLC. Parayko(R. Thomas, J. Snuggerud)0–1
  2. 14:46MINN. Foligno(Y. Trenin, D. Hunt)1–1
  3. 19:13MIND. Yurovpower play(V. Tarasenko, M. Johansson)2–1
2ndshots 8–7
  1. 01:59MINM. McCarronshorthanded(N. Foligno)3–1
  2. 04:04STLO. Stenberg(T. Tucker, A. Toropchenko)3–2
  3. 04:31STLP. Buchnevich(J. Kyrou, C. Fowler)3–3
  4. 16:41STLT. Lindstein(J. Drouin, D. Dvorsky)3–4
3rdshots 9–8
  1. 03:05STLJ. Neighbours3–5
  2. 16:56STLJ. Snuggerudempty net3–6

score reads MIN–STL

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
4.21
STL chances
Goals their shots were worth
+1.8
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.074
STL puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
46.5%
Shot attempts
Under half — they were outshot
Split by club

Who controlled the game

4.47Expected goals4.21
MIN 52% of the chance quality
31Shots on goal22
6High-danger chances8
53All attempts (Corsi)46
Adjusted for score: MIN 56% · STL 44%
Faceoffs · STL won54%off48%neu77%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
MIN2 / 6 · 1.56 xG
STL4 / 8 · 2.52 xG
Medium dangermid-range
MIN1 / 20 · 2.56 xG
STL1 / 11 · 1.24 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
MIN0 / 27 · 0.35 xG
STL1 / 27 · 0.46 xG

MIN went 1-for-20 from medium danger on 2.56 expected goals — 1.6 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
MIN
3 G · 4.47 xG · -1.5
STL
6 G · 4.21 xG · +1.8
01234567

MIN finished -1.5 against expected, STL +1.8.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
MIN
WRIST2/25
SNAP0/8
SLAP0/3
BACKHAND1/5
TIP IN0/3
POKE0/1
OTHER0/8
STL
WRIST1/16
SNAP3/12
SLAP1/5
BACKHAND1/3
TIP IN0/0
POKE0/0
OTHER0/10
MIN
STL
Off the rush
2 G on 27
2.54 xG
4 G on 26
2.75 xG
Off rebounds
0 G on 5
1.15 xG
0 G on 4
0.59 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: MIN went 2-for-25, STL 1-for-16. STL scored 4 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
F. Gustavsson
MIN · 16/21 · .762
-0.8
saved above expected
D-
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger4/82.5-1.5
Medium1/111.2+0.2
Low1/270.5-0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Hofer
STL · 28/31 · .903
+1.5
saved above expected
B+
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger2/61.6-0.4
Medium1/202.6+1.6
Low0/270.3+0.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

81 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
MIN
45 shots
3
Final
81 shots
STL
36 shots
6
MIN attackSTL attack
MIN STL Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — MIN left, STL right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
N. Foligno
#71 · L · MIN
1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 17:17 on ice · +1
J. Snuggerud
#21 · R · STL
1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 15:44 on ice · +1
V. Tarasenko
#91 · R · MIN
0 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 19:37 on ice · -2
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Mon, Apr 13
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 11:31 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model calls this pick'em: Minnesota and St. Louis project to split the difference at 2.5-2.5, with the Blues at 50% win probability. That's as close to a coin flip as your models will generate.

Minnesota owns the underlying play by a hair. The Wild are generating 52.0% of 5v5 expected goals, while St. Louis manages 49.0%—a modest advantage that translates to shot quality over the course of sixty minutes. Corsi rates are dead even at 48.0% apiece, suggesting neither team dominates puck possession. St. Louis' PDO sits at 1.000, suggesting neutral luck; Minnesota's at 1.007, indicating they've been slightly fortunate, though not egregiously so.

The Wild's forward depth centers on Matt Boldy, who has posted 0.89 xG per 60 minutes with 22 goals and 18 assists, plus 5 high-danger chances. His 13.7% shooting rate suggests room for regression, though elite shot quality provides the foundation. Robby Fabbri (0.88 xG/60) is likely out, removing a low-volume threat (2 goals, 6.9% shooting despite the strong underlying rate).

St. Louis counters with two dangerous forwards. Jimmy Snuggerud operates at 0.86 xG per 60 with 15 goals and 22 assists, plus 2 high-danger chances. Dylan Holloway brings 0.82 xG per 60, 13 goals, 24 assists, and a modest 10.8% shooting rate, meaning he's primed to finish more efficiently if he gets the same opportunities.

Both teams are mired in an eerie statistical quirk: 0% conversion on high-danger chances and 0% on rebound goals. That's not a sustainable feature—one or both will regress toward league norms, potentially swinging the game. Both have defensive vulnerabilities: Matt Kiersted for Minnesota, Jimmy Snuggerud for St. Louis.

Neither team owns a clear statistical edge. This is what a genuine coin flip looks like.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

STL 50%
50%
STL
Model favorite
50%
50%
MIN50STL

STL by 0 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score MIN 2.5–2.5 STL; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
MIN← edge
edge →STL
52.0%49.0%
48.0%48.0%
2.552.34
2.402.40
2.042.00
1.932.12
1.0071.000

MIN holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.007 vs 1.000) says MIN has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
MIN
6-4-0
+4 GD · 2d rest
STL
6-3-1
+10 GD · 2d rest
1.007
MIN PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.000
STL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live
  • The Wild own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 49.0%.
Things to watch
  • The Wild own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 49.0%.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
MIN
Expected in goal
J. Wallstedt
2 days rest.909 last start
Backup Filip Gustavsson · +1.4 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

STL
Expected in goal
J. Hofer
2 days rest.912 last start
Backup Joel Hofer · +11.7 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
MIN
Matt Boldy22G 18A
0.89 xG/60 · 5 HD · 13.7% sh
Robby Fabbri2G 3A
0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 6.9% sh
STL
Jimmy Snuggerud15G 22A
0.86 xG/60 · 2 HD · 11.9% sh
Dylan Holloway13G 24A
0.82 xG/60 · 1 HD · 10.8% sh
Keep going

Where to next

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