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← Mon, Apr 13 · the slate
Breakdown · LAK at SEA

Kings run the Kraken off the ice on the underlying numbers

FinalMon, Apr 13
LAKLos Angeles Kings5SEASeattle Kraken3
The verdict · earned

The Kings earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

LAK 5 · SEA 3
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 11:40 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Kraken held 52% of shot attempts. The underlying numbers said otherwise. The Kings controlled 60% of 5v5 expected goals (5.22–3.43), a margin that exposed the quality gap beneath Seattle's shot volume.

The Kraken shot worse. The Kings generated 0.079 xG per attempt; Seattle mustered 0.048. When the Kings took fewer chances on better ice and better angles, the scoreboard followed.

On the rush, the Kings scored three goals on 26 chances; Seattle managed two on 31. In front of the net, the Kings created eight rebound opportunities and converted two; Seattle generated three and converted zero.

N. Kokko stopped 1.22 goals above expected (0.862 SV%). A. Forsberg recorded 30 saves on 33 shots (0.909 SV%), but the Kings had already won the game upstream.

The 5-3 scoreline flattered Seattle.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Apr 13
LAK
5
SEA
3

Kings run the Kraken off the ice on the underlying numbers

Chances 5.2 – 3.4Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Kings earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
LAK
5.22
SEA
3.43
60% of the chances40%

The board read LAK 5, SEA 3. The chances read LAK 5.2, SEA 3.4.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
LAK
−0.2
goals above expected
LAK5.22 expected · 5 scored
Expected
Scored
SEA3.43 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 02:43LAKQ. Byfield1–0
  2. P1 13:19LAKQ. Byfield2–0
  3. P2 07:13LAKT. Moore3–0
  4. P3 01:53SEAA. Larsson3–1
  5. P3 08:08SEAF. Gaudreau3–2
  6. P3 12:29LAKA. Kempe4–2
  7. P3 17:33SEAB. McMannPP4–3
+1 more on the full breakdown
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
LAK
54 shots
5
Final
107 shots
SEA
53 shots
3
LAK attackSEA attack
LAK SEA Goal
54
shots · 5 in
53
shots · 3 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
LAKSEA
1 / 8
2.63 xG
High danger
1 / 6
1.46 xG
2 / 17
1.95 xG
Medium
0 / 11
1.10 xG
2 / 41
0.64 xG
Low
2 / 55
0.87 xG

High-danger looks: LAK 1 of 8, SEA 1 of 6.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
B+
N. Kokko
+1.2
SEA · 25/29
B
A. Forsberg
+0.4
LAK · 30/33
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Kings run the Kraken off the ice on the underlying numbers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 9–8
  1. 02:43LAKQ. Byfield1–0
  2. 13:19LAKQ. Byfield2–0
2ndshots 12–14
  1. 07:13LAKT. Moore(A. Laferriere)3–0
3rdshots 9–11
  1. 01:53SEAA. Larsson(M. Beniers, J. Schwartz)3–1
  2. 08:08SEAF. Gaudreau(K. Kakko)3–2
  3. 12:29LAKA. Kempe(A. Kopitar, T. Moore)4–2
  4. 17:33SEAB. McMannpower play(M. Beniers, C. Stephenson)4–3
  5. 19:58LAKA. Laferriereempty net(J. Edmundson)5–3

score reads LAK–SEA

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
5.22
LAK chances
Goals their shots were worth
−0.2
Finishing
Goals below what those chances were worth
1.034
LAK puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
47.8%
Shot attempts
Under half — they were outshot
Split by club

Who controlled the game

5.22Expected goals3.43
LAK 60% of the chance quality
30Shots on goal33
8High-danger chances6
66All attempts (Corsi)72
Adjusted for score: LAK 41% · SEA 59%
Faceoffs · SEA won55%off32%neu46%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
LAK1 / 8 · 2.63 xG
SEA1 / 6 · 1.46 xG
Medium dangermid-range
LAK2 / 17 · 1.95 xG
SEA0 / 11 · 1.10 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
LAK2 / 41 · 0.64 xG
SEA2 / 55 · 0.87 xG

LAK went 1-for-8 from high danger on 2.63 expected goals — 1.6 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
LAK
5 G · 5.22 xG · -0.2
SEA
3 G · 3.43 xG · -0.4
0123456

LAK finished -0.2 against expected, SEA -0.4.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
LAK
WRIST3/30
SLAP0/7
SNAP1/8
TIP IN0/7
BACKHAND1/2
DEFLECTED0/0
WRAP AROUND0/0
OTHER0/12
SEA
WRIST1/30
SLAP0/7
SNAP2/5
TIP IN0/4
BACKHAND0/5
DEFLECTED0/1
WRAP AROUND0/1
OTHER0/19
LAK
SEA
Off the rush
3 G on 26
2.07 xG
2 G on 31
2.37 xG
Off rebounds
2 G on 8
1.56 xG
0 G on 3
0.42 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: LAK went 3-for-30, SEA 1-for-30. LAK scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
A. Forsberg
LAK · 30/33 · .909
+0.4
saved above expected
B
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger1/61.5+0.5
Medium0/111.1+1.1
Low2/550.9-1.1

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

N. Kokko
SEA · 25/29 · .862
+1.2
saved above expected
B+
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger1/82.6+1.6
Medium2/171.9-0.1
Low2/410.6-1.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

107 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
LAK
54 shots
5
Final
107 shots
SEA
53 shots
3
LAK attackSEA attack
LAK SEA Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — LAK left, SEA right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
A. Laferriere
#14 · R · LAK
1 G · 1 A · 5 SOG · 21:10 on ice · +3
Q. Byfield
#55 · R · LAK
2 G · 0 A · 8 SOG · 20:17 on ice · +3
T. Moore
#12 · L · LAK
1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 18:31 on ice · +3
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Mon, Apr 13
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 11:37 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a LAK 2.5 - 2.3 SEA game with the Kings at 53% win probability. This is as close to a pick'em as projections get.

The Kings are the hotter team: 6-1-3 over their last 10 games. The Kraken are underwater at -13 goal differential in the same stretch. That gap reflects the underlying play. Los Angeles generates expected goals at 52.0% share to Seattle's 46.0%, controls territory at 52.0% Corsi to 45.0%. The Kings dominate possession; the Kraken chase.

That edge is real but fragile. Seattle's PDO sits at 1.011—elevated—while LA's is 1.002, meaning the Kraken have run hot on conversion while the Kings have run cold. In a game this tight, that gap erases an advantage.

The Kings' engine is Alex Laferriere: 0.87 expected goals per 60 minutes, 16 goals and 18 assists, with 2 high-danger goals and a 9.9% shooting rate that leaves room for variance. Jared Wright generates at 0.83 xG/60 but has yet to score—a potential flashpoint if his luck shifts. Seattle counters with Shane Wright at 0.77 xG/60, 8 goals and 10 assists with 4 high-danger goals, paired with Berkly Catton's high-volume, low-efficiency approach: 0.68 xG/60, 6 goals, 8 assists, and 5 high-danger chances despite 8.8% shooting.

Adrian Kempe figures as a defensive weak link for LA; Chandler Stephenson the same for Seattle. In a close game, those names matter.

The Kings' underlying play gives them the edge. Seattle's luck could close it. Expect a game decided by whoever sustains their identity longer.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

LAK 53%
53%
LAK
Model favorite
53%
47%
LAK50SEA

LAK by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score LAK 2.5–2.3 SEA; 19% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
LAK← edge
edge →SEA
52.0%46.0%
52.0%45.0%
2.422.13
2.202.51
1.851.87
1.711.95
1.0021.011

LAK holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.002 vs 1.011) says SEA has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
LAK
6-1-3
+4 GD · 2d rest
SEA
3-5-2
-13 GD · 2d rest
1.002
LAK PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.011
SEA PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live
  • The Kings own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 46.0%.
  • The Kings drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Things to watch
  • The Kings own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 46.0%.
  • The Kings drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
  • The Kings are the hotter team by points pace (6-1-3 in their last 10).
  • The Kraken are underwater at -13 goal differential over their last 10.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
LAK
Expected in goal
A. Forsberg
2 days rest1.000 last start
Backup Darcy Kuemper · -5.8 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

SEA
Expected in goal
N. Kokko
2 days rest.963 last start
Backup Joey Daccord · -6.2 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
LAK
Alex Laferriere16G 18A
0.87 xG/60 · 2 HD · 9.9% sh
Jared Wright0G 4A
0.83 xG/60 · 0 HD · 0.0% sh
SEA
Shane Wright8G 10A
0.77 xG/60 · 4 HD · 10.4% sh
Berkly Catton6G 8A
0.68 xG/60 · 5 HD · 8.8% sh
Keep going

Where to next

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