The Avalanche earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Colorado dominated the underlying metrics—5.35 expected goals versus Edmonton's 2.68, seven high-danger chances to three—yet won 2-1 in a shootout. That gap illustrates the thin line between dominance and barely hanging on.
The Oilers held 49% of shot attempts (31–32), creating a superficial sense of balance. But shot quality diverged sharply. Colorado's looks averaged 0.064 expected goals per shot; Edmonton's, 0.043. Nearly all of those Avalanche chances were prime scoring opportunities that Colorado failed to convert.
That inefficiency—zero goals on seven high-danger chances—is rare and won't repeat. Edmonton's C. Ingram capitalized on the reprieve: 31 saves on 32 shots (0.969 SV%), an exceptional 4.35 goals above expectation that kept the Oilers in a game they didn't deserve to stay in.
Colorado's S. Wedgewood was solid in return, stopping 1.68 goals above expected (30 saves on 31 shots, 0.968 SV%). Regulation ended 1–1; N. MacKinnon's wrist shot from the slot in the shootout decided it.
The metrics were unambiguous. Colorado created more, shot smarter, dominated location. Edmonton survived only because C. Ingram was exceptional. Without him, this game wasn't close.
