Buffalo's 5–1 win looked more decisive than the underlying metrics suggest—goaltending variance turned a quality edge into a rout. The Sabres controlled 61% of expected goals at 5v5 (3.75–2.43), but U. Luukkonen's excellence and S. Knight's struggles added roughly a goal to the final margin: Luukkonen stopped 1.4 goals above expected while Knight gave up 1.3 more than expected.

Buffalo won shot attempts 26–16. High-danger chances broke 8–5 in their favor. Chicago's underlying performance wasn't catastrophic—just incomplete, hampered by poor goaltending.

The Sabres were lethal on the rush: four goals from 24 chances. They crashed the net effectively, creating six rebound opportunities that applied pressure. R. McLeod's wrist shot from the high slot (18:35, third period) marked Buffalo's breakthrough, though the Sabres had already seized control.

Luukkonen finished with a 0.938 save percentage; Knight managed 0.808. Chicago held 39% of expected goals and 38% of shot attempts—respectable for a road team that trailed early. Knight's poor night masked otherwise competitive underlying play.

• A. Tuch (BUF) — 1G, 1A in 21:23
• R. Dahlin (BUF) — 2A in 20:59
• T. Thompson (BUF) — 2G in 17:31

The model projects 2.7 goals for Buffalo, 2.5 for Chicago, with the Sabres at 54% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as the numbers get.

But the game isn't featureless. Buffalo owns the underlying play—50.0% xG at 5v5 against Chicago's 42.0%, a structural advantage that shows up in shot quality across the board. The Sabres are also 5-3-2 in their last 10, riding offensive momentum. Chicago, meanwhile, is -19 in goal differential over the same stretch, which is the kind of deficit that compounds.

What tempers Buffalo's edge: the Sabres' 1.020 PDO suggests they're running hot on bounces, and regression is the iron law of hockey. Chicago gets the rest advantage—2 days versus Buffalo's 4—a small but real lever when the underlying game is this tight.

On paper, here's where the talent sits. Buffalo's Jason Zucker leads with 1.07 xG per 60, paired with 14 goals, 6 of those high-danger, and a 15.1% shooting rate that leaves room to come back to Earth. Josh Doan runs 1.01 xG per 60 with 15 goals and 18 assists, though only 2 came from high-danger chances—efficiency through volume rather than quality.

Chicago counters with Tyler Bertuzzi at 0.85 xG per 60, but he's converted at 18.0%—the kind of finishing that worries opposing coaches. He has 20 goals and 7 high-danger tallies. Connor Bedard, the headline name, sits at 0.82 xG per 60, which is healthy, though his 27 assists suggest he's playing the engine role more than the trigger. Only 5 of his 17 goals came from high-danger areas.

The defensive pictures are worth noting. Buffalo's Jack Quinn stands out as a weak point; Chicago's Anton Frondell is similarly exposed. Whoever can turn play toward those zones will find room.

The Sabres have the process advantage. The Blackhawks have the rest day and Tyler Bertuzzi converting at a high rate. The flip is still live.