The Wild stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 5.93–3.99 and won anyway.
Minnesota won this one despite getting outplayed where it matters most. The Wild edged Anaheim 3–2 despite losing the expected goals battle 3.99–5.93—a gap of nearly 2 goals that perfectly explains why this felt like a heist.
The Ducks controlled the game's underlying quality. They generated 60% of expected goals at 5v5, a dominant share that typically leads to wins. Yet the Wild converted their chances at a far higher rate, scoring on opportunities that didn't register as high-probability shots. The Ducks had 12 high-danger chances to Minnesota's 7, but couldn't finish; Anaheim created 5 rebound chances and converted zero.
J. Wallstedt was the difference. The Wild goaltender stopped 3.9 goals above expected with a 0.946 save percentage, posting a 92% SV% on 12 high-danger shots. L. Dostal, by contrast, saved 0.99 goals above expected—a respectable performance that simply wasn't enough to overcome his team's finishing woes.
Anaheim's power play was dominant—2 goals on 28 PP shots—but that firepower couldn't overcome the Wild's efficiency elsewhere. Mason McTavish's tip-in from the slot at 19:14 of the third period marked the turning point, though the Wild still had to hold on.
The Wild held just 35% of shot attempts (20–37 on goal), another marker of how thoroughly the Ducks controlled possession. Minnesota was lethal on the rush despite limited opportunities: 2 goals on 21 rush chances, a conversion rate that matched Anaheim's ability to score off the rush (2 goals on 45 chances). Minnesota also crashed harder—they created 4 rebound chances and converted 1, giving them tangible second chances where the Ducks found none.
