The Avalanche earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The Flames held 45% of shot attempts but lost 3-1, a result that looked closer than it was. Colorado controlled 64% of expected goals (6.44–3.56) and dominated high-danger chances (13–5), gaps that don't narrow on the road. M. Blackwood (COL) finished with a 0.968 SV% (+2.56 vs expected), and his elite play sealed the margin.
Calgary generated high-danger looks but converted none: 0 for 5. That's a threshold performance; in a single game it can feel like luck, but it cost them. D. Wolf posted a 0.946 SV% (+4.44 vs expected), actually outperforming Blackwood, yet it didn't matter when the shot volume wasn't there. The Flames underperformed their 3.56 xG by 2.56 goals. Colorado underperformed their 6.44 xG by 3.44, yet still scored three—a margin that absorbed the inefficiency.
Nathan MacKinnon's wrist shot from the slot (P3, 19:43) was the turning point, the look that crystallized what the metrics had already declared. It arrived in the third period when Calgary was pressing, when Calgary might have clawed back. It sealed the game. The Flames brought precision on their chances and won some battles on the board, but Colorado's edge in chance quality was insurmountable.
