The Blues earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
St. Louis beat Pittsburgh 7–5, and nearly every underlying metric said they deserved it—except for one: both teams vastly overperformed their expected goals. The Blues exceeded theirs by 2.51 goals; the Penguins by 2.58. That's an indication the game included outsized variance despite the Blues' firm 65% control of five-on-five expected goals (4.49–2.42).
The real separation came in shot quality, not volume. The Blues held 57% of shot attempts (31–23) and created 7 high-danger chances to Pittsburgh's 2. They buried 4 of 7 (57%) around the net.
Dylan Holloway's wrist shot from the high slot in the third period was the turning point, one of his two goals in 19:02 of ice time. J. Snuggerud matched that with 2G, 2A in 16:40; L. Mailloux added 1G, 1A in 21:27. St. Louis went 5-for-29 on the rush while Pittsburgh managed 3-for-26, but the Blues' net-front work—4 rebound opportunities with 2 conversions—separated the teams.
Goalies revealed the game's fragility. J. Binnington allowed 2.58 more goals than expected against a 0.783 save percentage—a crater that should have sunk St. Louis. Instead, the Blues' offensive overperformance (2.51 goals above xG) masked the damage. Pittsburgh, despite overperforming their 2.42 xG by 2.58 goals, simply didn't generate the volume to matter.