STRENGTHNYR
D. Garand stole it
D. Garand stopped 29 of 31 (0.935) — +2.77 goals saved above expected in a 2-goal game.
The verdict · stolen
The Rangers stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 4.08–4.77 and won anyway.
NYR 4 · TBL 2
◆ By the ModelJul 14, 6:57 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The Rangers beat the Lightning 4-2 in a game the underlying numbers called a slight Lightning advantage—expected goals favored Tampa Bay 4.77–4.08, a 54–46 split—but the scoreboard told a different story.
D. Garand stole this one. The Rangers goaltender saved 2.77 goals above expected, stopping 29 of 31 shots for a 0.935 save percentage. That margin of excellence erased what should have been a tight contest.
The Rangers' other decisive edge came on transitions. New York scored 3 goals on 21 rush chances, a conversion rate the Lightning's defense—and more crucially, B. Halverson's goaltending—couldn't withstand. Halverson made 17 of 21 saves for an 0.810 save percentage. Rush opportunities carry lower inherent danger than high-danger chances, but volume matters; when you're beating a team 21 times in transition, three goals feels inevitable.
The Lightning created the more dangerous chances overall. They out-attempted the Rangers 31–21 and held a 9–7 edge in high-danger situations. But advantages in advanced metrics don't win by two goals. Tampa underperformed their expected goals by 2.8—they generated quality chances and converted just enough to look competitive, not enough to punish the Rangers' defensive lapses. New York scored 2 goals from low-danger areas; the opposing goalie needs to stop those.
The turning point arrived early in the third. Corey Perry's backhander from the top of the circles at 00:51 broke a tie and shifted momentum decisively toward New York.