The Avalanche earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Colorado dominated the underlying metrics (4.43–1.07 expected goals, 80–20%) but underperformed in execution, scoring 2 on chances worth 4.43. The Kraken's performance was even more lopsided: they generated just 1.07 xG yet stayed competitive through two periods before the defensive collapse in the third.
The Avalanche controlled 61% of shot attempts (35–22) and created far higher-quality opportunities—0.059 xG per shot versus Seattle's 0.027. This efficiency gap explains everything: Colorado was clinical in the high-danger area (2 of 4 chances converted) and lethal off the rush with 2 goals on 32 rush attempts.
Parker Kelly's snap shot from the slot at 12:19 of the third period proved to be the difference-maker. By then, Seattle had already ceded the game; the Avalanche dominated the cycle and forced the issue through volume and positioning.
The most striking performance came from Seattle's V. Ostman. The goalie stopped 33 of 35 shots (0.943 SV%, +2.43 above expected), keeping his team within reach despite being fundamentally outplayed. He stole the show in a losing effort.
S. Wedgewood had the easier night for Colorado: 22 of 22 saves, posting a perfect 1.000 SV% (+1.07 above expected). When your goalie faces that few dangerous chances, the game is already decided.
Colorado's execution in transition separated the teams. They generated far more dangerous looks and converted at a higher rate, the hallmark of a team that doesn't squander superior odds.