WARNINGCHI
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 29 rush shots worth 2.70 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
The verdict · earned
The Wild earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
CHI 2 · MIN 3
Preseason · exhibition
Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The shots and grades below describe this game only: nothing here counts toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.
◆ By the ModelSep 22, 10:32 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
Minnesota needed overtime to beat Chicago, and Tyler Pitlick delivered it with a deflection from a sharp angle. But the final score, 3-2, undersells how one-sided this game actually was.
Chicago led for stretches of this one. R. Lorenz opened the scoring for Minnesota in the first period, set up by D. Gambrell and D. Hunt, but D. Toninato answered for the Blackhawks later in the period off a feed from K. Korchinski and G. Hayes. Chicago then took the lead in the second period when D. Boucher scored, assisted by C. Mylymok and S. Boisvert. Minnesota didn't tie it back up until the third period, when N. Sturm finished a play started by O. Maatta and R. Lorenz. That forced overtime, where Pitlick — fed by H. Haight and D. Hunt — won it.
Read that sequence cold and it looks like a game Chicago led twice and nearly stole. It wasn't that kind of game. The Wild controlled 68% of five-on-five expected goals, running up a 3.89-to-1.84 edge in the expected-goals math, and that gap is the real story here. Minnesota also held 62% of shot attempts, winning the shot-attempt battle 26-16 on goal, and out-chanced Chicago on high-danger looks, 4-2. For most of regulation, Minnesota dictated play and Chicago simply hung on.
That the game still needed overtime is more about variance than about who played better. Minnesota actually underperformed its own expected-goals total by 0.89 goals — a night where the better team kept getting stonewalled more than the shot quality said it should. A. Soderblom is a big reason why: he stopped 23 of 26 for a .885 save percentage and finished 0.89 goals above expected, essentially erasing a full expected goal on his own. At the other end, C. Pickard was shakier, saving 14 of 16 and sitting 0.16 goals below expected.
The report card reflects that gap between performance and result. Chicago's offense graded D+, managing just 1.84 expected goals against a league-average game of roughly 2.70. Its defense graded an F, allowing 3.89 expected goals and conceding 29 rush shots worth 2.70 expected goals to Minnesota — the same transition breakdowns that made up the "biggest concern" line on this game, present in every period. Minnesota's offense and transition play graded A and A-, mirroring that same shot-quality dominance from the other side of the puck.
Chicago wasn't harmless in transition on the other end, though. The Blackhawks scored twice on their own 18 rush chances, exactly the kind of quick-strike hockey that kept this from looking as lopsided as the underlying numbers suggest.
Special teams were a non-factor for either club — Chicago finished 0-for-4 on the power play and Minnesota 0-for-5, both well off the league rate of roughly 21%.
Three Stars
- D. Hunt (MIN) — two assists in 23:51
- R. Lorenz (MIN) — a goal and an assist in 15:33
- K. Korchinski (CHI) — an assist in 25:25