WARNINGTOR
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 29 rush shots worth 3.18 xG (4 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
The verdict · earned
The Canadiens earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
TOR 3 · MTL 4
Preseason · exhibition
Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The shots and grades below describe this game only: nothing here counts toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.
◆ By the ModelSep 22, 10:29 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
Montreal jumped out to a two-goal lead in the first period, watched Toronto storm back with three unanswered goals to seize a 3-2 edge in the third, then leaned on L. Hutson to tie it back up before Cole Caufield ended it in overtime. Final: Canadiens 4, Maple Leafs 3.
J. Slafkovský opened the scoring for Montreal in the first (assists to L. Mittelstadt and E. Samson), and I. Demidov made it 0-2 on the power play, set up by Hutson. Toronto's whole comeback happened in the second period. H. Rybinski scored on the man advantage to make it 1-2 (assists R. Tverberg, B. Brisson), C. Sissons tied it on another power play (assists O. Ekman-Larsson, E. Cowan), and M. Johnstone put the Leafs ahead 3-2 with helpers from Rybinski and M. Pezzetta. Montreal didn't blink. Hutson tied it again early in the third, assisted by J. Davidson and A. Belzile, then set up the winner himself — Caufield's snap shot from the doorstep, at 04:22 of overtime, with A. Carrier picking up the second assist.
Here's the disagreement worth flagging: Toronto actually generated the better look on a per-shot basis. Their expected goals per shot sat at 0.076 against Montreal's 0.057, meaning the Leafs were picking better chances when they did shoot. It just didn't matter, because Montreal buried them in volume. The Canadiens controlled 59% of expected goals at 5-on-5 (4.09 to 2.83) and 59% of shot attempts as well, with a 30-21 edge on goal, plus a 4-2 lead in high-danger chances. Quality per look favored Toronto; everything else favored Montreal, and everything else is what wins games.
Goaltending was a split story. Montreal's J. Fowler was sharp in his look, stopping 9 of 10, while J. Dobes finished 9 of 11 for -0.52 goals saved above expected — a shaky number for the guy in net on the winning side. Toronto's tandem of S. Hlavaj and A. Akhtyamov combined to finish narrowly positive at +0.09 on 30 shots against. Neither team got stolen a game by its goaltending; this one was decided in front of the net.
The report card's biggest concern is shared blame: Toronto gave up 29 rush shots worth 3.18 expected goals and four actual goals off the rush, with transition gaps showing up in every period. But it cut both ways — Toronto itself scored three goals on 24 rush chances of its own, so neither club solved its defensive-transition problem. Special teams were a wash at the top end: both power plays finished at 50% (Toronto 2-for-4, Montreal 1-for-2), each well clear of the roughly 21% league mark, and both graded out A+.