Recap · MTL at TOR · Preseason

Canadiens pull away from the Maple Leafs

The Canadiens earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

◆ By the ModelSep 19, 9:51 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Raw model copy

Away

MTL

Montreal Canadiens

Home

TOR

Toronto Maple Leafs

FINAL

Process vs result

The underlying story

3.64Expected goals2.91

55% share for the better side

29Shot attempts (SOG)25

3High-danger chances2

58Corsi (all attempts)45

Score-adjusted: 54% / 46%

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

The Canadiens rolled past the Maple Leafs 4-1 and the underlying numbers backed it up — they controlled 56% of 5v5 expected goals (3.64–2.91).

The numbers behind the result. The Maple Leafs held 46% of shot attempts (25–29 on goal). Expected goals finished 2.91–3.64 (44–56% split), and high-danger chances went 2–3.

Variance watch. The Maple Leafs underperformed their xG by 1.91 goals.

Turning point. Samuel Poulin's tip-in from the doorstep (P3, 19:37).

Why the Canadiens won

01Dangerous off the rush
02S. Montembeault tilted the crease
03Won on the merits
04P. Danault led the way
05The moment it turned

Why the Maple Leafs lost

01Rush defense leaked all night
02Cold finishing night
03PDO ran cold
04Rebound control was shaky

Graded vs a league-average game

Report card

DimensionMTLTOR

Offense

▸Basis

MTL Created 3.64 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 3 high-danger shots (1.17 xG) and 23 rush shots (1.76 xG).

TOR Created 2.91 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 2 high-danger shots (0.42 xG) and 26 rush shots (2.03 xG).

B+

B-

Defense

▸Basis

MTL Allowed 2.91 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 2 high-danger shots (0.42 xG) and 26 rush shots (2.03 xG).

TOR Allowed 3.64 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 3 high-danger shots (1.17 xG) and 23 rush shots (1.76 xG).

C-

D-

Transition

▸Basis

MTL Rush shots 23–26, rush xG 1.76–2.03 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

TOR Rush shots 26–23, rush xG 2.03–1.76 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

C-

C+

Special teams

▸Basis

MTL 0-for-3 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.27 PP xG.

TOR 1-for-6 on the power play (17%; league ≈21%) with 1.32 PP xG.

Goaltending

▸Basis

MTL +1.91 goals saved above expected on 25 shots against.

TOR +0.64 goals saved above expected on 28 shots against.

B-

Discipline

▸Basis

MTL Took 7 penalties for 17 PIM vs 4 for 11 on the other side.

TOR Took 4 penalties for 11 PIM vs 7 for 17 on the other side.

D-

A-

Luck

Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral

▸Basis

MTL Finishing +0.36 goals vs xG plus +1.91 GSAx of save luck = +2.27 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

TOR Finishing -1.91 goals vs xG plus +0.64 GSAx of save luck = -1.27 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

MTL1 / 3 · 1.17 xG

TOR0 / 2 · 0.42 xG

Medium dangermid-range

MTL2 / 19 · 1.90 xG

TOR1 / 18 · 1.98 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

MTL1 / 36 · 0.57 xG

TOR0 / 25 · 0.51 xG

TOR went 1-for-18 from medium danger on 1.98 expected goals — 1.0 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

MTL

4 G · 3.64 xG · +0.4

TOR

1 G · 2.91 xG · -1.9

012345

Goalies · GSAx (goals saved above expected)

K. KahkonenMTL

+0.4

S. MontembeaultMTL

+1.5

A. StolarzTOR

+0.2

S. BobrovskyTOR

+0.4

MTL finished +0.4 against expected, TOR -1.9 — S. Montembeault (MTL) saved 1.5 goals above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Goaltending

K. Kahkonen (MTL): 11/12 saves, 0.917 SV%
S. Montembeault (MTL): 13/13 saves, 1.000 SV% (+1.52 vs expected)
A. Stolarz (TOR): 15/17 saves, 0.882 SV%
S. Bobrovsky (TOR): 10/11 saves, 0.909 SV%

Storylines

S. Montembeault (MTL) stopped 1.5 goals above expected.
MTL was lethal off the rush — 2 goals on 23 rush chances.
MTL created 5 rebound opportunities (0 converted) — crashing the net effectively.
TOR underperformed xG by 1.9 — wasted quality chances.
K. Kahkonen (MTL) saved 1.9 goals above expected — stole the show.
S. Montembeault (MTL) saved 2.9 goals above expected — stole the show.
A. Stolarz (TOR) saved 1.6 goals above expected — stole the show.
S. Bobrovsky (TOR) saved 2.6 goals above expected — stole the show.

Final: MTL 4 – TOR 1

Data: NHL API, MoneyPuck xG model

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

MTL

WRIST3/21

SLAP0/6

TIP IN1/9

SNAP0/5

BACKHAND0/2

DEFLECTED0/0

OTHER0/15

TOR

WRIST0/21

SLAP1/7

TIP IN0/1

SNAP0/2

BACKHAND0/2

DEFLECTED0/1

OTHER0/11

MTL

TOR

Off the rush

2 G on 23 · 1.76 xG

0 G on 26 · 2.03 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 5 · 0.57 xG

0 G on 2 · 0.27 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: MTL went 3-for-21, TOR 0-for-21. MTL scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

Three stars · computed, not voted

P. Danault

#24 · C · MTL

2 G · 0 A · 4 SOG · 22:21 TOI · +2

M. Matheson

#8 · D · MTL

0 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 27:03 TOI · +1

J. Tavares

#91 · C · TOR

0 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 26:02 TOI · -1

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

Intelligence · ranked by importance

WARNINGTORfancoach

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 23 rush shots worth 1.76 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

IMP

STRENGTHMTLfancoach

Dangerous off the rush

2 goals on 23 rush shots worth 1.76 xG.

IMP

LUCKTORfangm

Cold finishing night

Scored 1 on 2.91 xG — -1.91 vs expected. The looks were there; the finish will come back.

IMP

WARNINGMTLfancoach

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 26 rush shots worth 2.03 xG (0 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

IMP

WARNINGMTLfancoachgm

Paraded to the penalty box

Took 7 penalties for 17 minutes (opponent: 4 for 11).

Cut the stick infractions — the penalty differential is a controllable.

IMP

STRENGTHTORfancoach

Dangerous off the rush

0 goals on 26 rush shots worth 2.03 xG.

IMP

What the model flagged

S. Montembeault (MTL) stopped 1.5 goals above expected.
MTL was lethal off the rush — 2 goals on 23 rush chances.
MTL created 5 rebound opportunities (0 converted) — crashing the net effectively.
TOR underperformed xG by 1.9 — wasted quality chances.
K. Kahkonen (MTL) saved 1.9 goals above expected — stole the show.
S. Montembeault (MTL) saved 2.9 goals above expected — stole the show.
A. Stolarz (TOR) saved 1.6 goals above expected — stole the show.
S. Bobrovsky (TOR) saved 2.6 goals above expected — stole the show.

Before the game — the model's pre-game read

Preview · MTL at TOR · 7:00 PM ET · Preseason

Canadiens at Maple Leafs: no daylight between these two

◆ By the ModelSep 19, 9:33 AMEdited for clarity

Win probability

The model's lean

52%

MTL

Model favorite

52%

48%

MTL50TOR

MTL by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score MTL 3.4–3.3 TOR; 16% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season profile · edge from the spine

Tale of the tape

MTL← edge

edge →TOR

49.7%5v5 xG%45.3%

48.2%Corsi%45.5%

3.28xGF / 602.91

3.32xGA / 603.51

3.40Goals for / gm3.07

3.06Goals against / gm3.60

1.019PDO — luck, not skill1.003

MTL holds 6 of 6 process categories — and PDO (1.019 vs 1.003) says MTL has run hotter.

Source · MoneyPuck season tables · 5v5

Keys to the game

TACTICALTORcoach

Shutdown Assignment: Maple Leafs

Key matchup: Neutralize Cole Caufield (33G, 0.97 xG/60, 1 HD goals)

IMP

TACTICALMTLcoach

Shutdown Assignment: Canadiens

Key matchup: Neutralize Auston Matthews (17G, 1.10 xG/60, 1 HD goals)

IMP

STRENGTHTORfancoach

Auston Matthews drives the Maple Leafs offense

Auston Matthews: 17G 13A, 1.10 xG/60, 1 high-danger goals.

IMP

WARNINGMTLcoachgm

Exploitable minutes: Mike Matheson

Mike Matheson is on ice for 2.90 xGA/60 and 78 high-danger shots against this season.

Hunt matchups against Mike Matheson's shifts with the top line.

IMP

Pick Montreal. The model projects a 3.4-3.3 Canadiens win with Montreal holding 52% win probability—as close to even odds as it gets, but Montreal's underlying play is the tiebreaker.

The Canadiens control 49.7% of expected goals at 5v5, a shot-quality edge that usually translates to wins, versus Toronto's 45.3%. The Leafs edge them in Corsi (45.5% to 48.2%), but that gap is deceptive—Montreal's advantage in dangerous shot generation is real. Auston Matthews is the Leafs' offensive engine at 1.10 xG/60 (17 goals, 13 assists) and Montreal's shutdown assignment. Cole Caufield plays both sides: he's Montreal's dual threat and Toronto's target. Caufield generates 0.97 xG/60 with 33 goals, 16 assists, and a 20.0% shooting rate that marks him as elite. Oliver Kapanen (0.83 xG/60, 19 goals, 12 assists) brings four high-danger goals—evidence of net-front finishing.

John Tavares is Toronto's secondary engine: 0.91 xG/60, 15 goals, 24 assists, three high-danger goals. The Leafs' PDO is 1.003—near luck-neutral—while Montreal's 1.019 is running hot. Some regression is likely for Montreal.

Defensively, Mike Matheson is Montreal's weak link. Bo Groulx is Toronto's. Both teams show 0% high-danger and 0% rebound goal rates in the sample—unlikely floors that hint at volatility ahead.

Players to Watch

Montreal: Cole Caufield (0.97 xG/60, 33G, 16A, 20.0% shooting), Oliver Kapanen (0.83 xG/60, 19G, 12A, 4 high-danger goals, 17.8% shooting)

Toronto: Auston Matthews (1.10 xG/60, 17G, 13A, 10.6% shooting), John Tavares (0.91 xG/60, 15G, 24A, 3 high-danger goals, 12.4% shooting)

The underlying play—Montreal's 49.7% xG% edge—is the solid foundation for the pick.

Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model

Season rates in this preview are from 2025-26 — this season's sample isn't live yet.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

MTL

Cole Caufield33G 16A

0.97 xG/60 · 1 HD · 20.0% sh

Oliver Kapanen19G 12A

0.83 xG/60 · 4 HD · 17.8% sh

TOR

Auston Matthews17G 13A

1.10 xG/60 · 1 HD · 10.6% sh

John Tavares15G 24A

0.91 xG/60 · 3 HD · 12.4% sh

Source · MoneyPuck skaters

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