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Motion-blurred skater in a Columbus Blue Jackets sweater
← Mon, Sep 21 · the slate
Breakdown · DET at CBJ · Preseason

Blue Jackets shut out the Red Wings, 1-0

Final / OTMon, Sep 21
DETDetroit Red Wings0CBJColumbus Blue Jackets1
The verdict · earned

The Blue Jackets earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

DET 0 · CBJ 1
Preseason · exhibition

Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The shots and grades below describe this game only: nothing here counts toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.

◆ By the ModelSep 28, 3:23 PMxG: xgboost-0.765Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Columbus dominated play and won 1-0 in a shootout, with Conor Garland scoring on a wrist shot from the slot. The underlying metrics didn't just support the result — they screamed it.

The Blue Jackets controlled 61% of expected goals at even strength. Columbus created 3.15 expected goals to Detroit's 1.99, which usually decides games. The Blue Jackets underperformed their expected goals by 2.15. The Red Wings underperformed theirs by 1.99. In a shootout, that kind of dominance is enough.

Columbus held 58% of shot attempts. The Blue Jackets won the high-danger chances 5–1, and their rush attack worked all night. Detroit's defense leaked. The Red Wings gave up 27 rush shots worth 2.29 expected goals — transition gaps every period.

Goaltending kept the score respectable for Detroit. M. Postava (DET) made 10 stops in regulation, 1.26 more saves than that workload should have allowed. D. Tarasov (DET) added 15 more in overtime, 1.89 more saves than that workload should have allowed. J. Greaves (CBJ) stopped all 16 shots, 1.77 more saves than that workload should have allowed. Both of Detroit's goalies stole moments, but only Greaves stole a win.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · SO · Preseason · Sep 21
DET
0
CBJ
1

Blue Jackets shut out the Red Wings, 1-0

Chances 2.0 – 3.1Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Blue Jackets earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
DET
1.99
CBJ
3.15
39% of the chances61%

The board read DET 0, CBJ 1. The chances read DET 2.0, CBJ 3.1.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
CBJ
−2.1
goals above expected
CBJ3.15 expected · 1 scored
Expected
Scored
DET1.99 expected · 0 scored
Expected
Scored

The Red Wings left 2.0 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. SO 00:00CBJC. GarlandPP0–0
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
DET
26 shots
0
Final
66 shots
CBJ
40 shots
0
DET attackCBJ attack
DET CBJ Goal

Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

26
shots · 0 in
40
shots · 0 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
DETCBJ
0 / 1
0.31 xG
High danger
0 / 5
1.11 xG
0 / 14
1.60 xG
Medium
0 / 17
1.73 xG
0 / 28
0.08 xG
Low
0 / 33
0.31 xG

High-danger looks: DET 0 of 1, CBJ 0 of 5.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A
J. Greaves
+1.9
CBJ · 16/16 · 40:00
Best save · a 32% chance, snap from 7 ft · P2 06:05
A
M. Postava
+1.8
DET · 10/10 · 25:00 · in relief
Best save · a 32% chance, wrist from 12 ft · P4 02:51
+2 more on the full breakdown
Best skater on the ice
A+
CBJ
D. Mateychuk
D · impact 1.19
28:56
Ice time
0–0
G – A
0.33
Own xG
76%
xG share
Impact · top 4
D. Mateychuk1.2A+
O. Sillinger0.9A+
I. Provorov1.0A+
M. Rasmussen0.8A
Report card
DETCBJ
OffenseD+B
DefenseDB-
TransitionDB+
Special teamsFF
GoaltendingA+A
DisciplineDB
LuckBD
Seven dimensions, A+ to F · basis on the breakdown
Why it went the way it went
Why CBJ won
  1. 01Dangerous off the rush
  2. 02J. Greaves tilted the crease
  3. 03Won on the merits
Why DET lost
  1. 01Cold finishing night
  2. 02Rush defense leaked all night
  3. 03Paraded to the penalty box
Our storyline model · reasoning on the breakdown
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Blue Jackets shut out the Red Wings, 1-0

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 11 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 11–3no goals
    2ndshots 5–12no goals
      3rdshots 2–6no goals
        OTshots 0–4no goals
          SO
          1. 00:00CBJC. Garlandpower play0–0

          score reads DET–CBJ

          Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
          Process vs result

          The numbers

          XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
          3.15
          CBJ chances
          Goals their shots were worth
          −2.1
          Finishing
          Goals below what those chances were worth
          1.000
          CBJ puck luck
          About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
          56.1%
          Shot attempts
          Over half — they had the puck more
          Split by club

          Who controlled the game

          1.99Expected goals3.15
          CBJ 61% of the chance quality
          18Shots on goal25
          1High-danger chances5
          43All attempts (Corsi)55
          Adjusted for score: DET 44% · CBJ 56%
          Faceoffs · CBJ won50%off40%neu56%def
          Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
          How the game was won

          The danger ladder

          shotsgoalsexpected
          High dangerslot & crease
          DET0 / 1 · 0.31 xG
          CBJ0 / 5 · 1.11 xG
          Medium dangermid-range
          DET0 / 14 · 1.60 xG
          CBJ0 / 17 · 1.73 xG
          Low dangerperimeter & point
          DET0 / 28 · 0.08 xG
          CBJ0 / 33 · 0.31 xG

          CBJ went 0-for-17 from medium danger on 1.73 expected goals — 1.7 left on the table.

          Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
          The luck layer

          Finishing vs expected

          expectedactual
          DET
          0 G · 1.99 xG · -2.0
          CBJ
          1 G · 3.15 xG · -2.1
          01234

          DET finished -2.0 against expected, CBJ -2.1.

          Source · Backcheck xG model
          Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
          What they shot — and what went in

          Shot diet

          goalsshots
          DET
          WRIST0/15
          SNAP0/5
          SLAP0/2
          BACKHAND0/2
          TIP IN0/2
          DEFLECTED0/0
          OTHER0/17
          CBJ
          WRIST0/14
          SNAP0/12
          SLAP0/7
          BACKHAND0/3
          TIP IN0/3
          DEFLECTED0/1
          OTHER0/15
          DET
          CBJ
          Off the rush
          0 G on 17
          1.58 xG
          0 G on 27
          2.29 xG
          Off rebounds
          0 G on 1
          0.17 xG
          0 G on 3
          0.52 xG

          Wrist shots carried the volume: DET went 0-for-15, CBJ 0-for-14.

          Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
          New to these numbers?

          Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

          The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

          xG
          Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
          HD
          High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
          Corsi
          Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
          Adj.
          Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
          GSAx
          Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
          PDO
          Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
          Shot by shot

          In the net

          Graded on goals saved above expected
          M. Postava
          DET · 10/10 · 1.000
          in relief · 25:00 · OT loss
          +1.8
          saved above expected
          A
          the night
          Attempts faced
          19
          Avg chance faced
          9.5%
          Stopped vs expected
          1.000 vs 0.905
          Rebounds allowed
          3
          By dangerG/attxGsaved
          High danger0/30.7+0.7
          Medium0/101.0+1.0
          Low0/60.1+0.1
          Shorthanded0/60.5+0.5
          Tips & deflections0/10.2+0.2
          The save
          32% chance stopped, a wrist from 12 ft · P4 02:51

          A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

          D. Tarasov
          DET · 15/15 · 1.000
          started · 40:00
          +1.4
          saved above expected
          B+
          the night
          Attempts faced
          21
          Avg chance faced
          6.5%
          Stopped vs expected
          1.000 vs 0.935
          Rebounds allowed
          0
          By dangerG/attxGsaved
          High danger0/20.4+0.4
          Medium0/70.8+0.8
          Low0/120.2+0.2
          Shorthanded0/20.2+0.2
          Tips & deflections0/30.2+0.2
          The save
          20% chance stopped, a snap from 23 ft · P2 06:38

          A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

          P. Copley
          CBJ · 2/2 · 1.000
          in relief · 25:00 · win
          +0.1
          saved above expected
          —
          the night
          Attempts faced
          4
          Avg chance faced
          3.7%
          Stopped vs expected
          1.000 vs 0.963
          Rebounds allowed
          0
          By dangerG/attxGsaved
          Medium0/10.1+0.1
          Low0/30.0+0.0
          The save
          14% chance stopped, a wrist from 16 ft · P3 17:39

          A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

          J. Greaves
          CBJ · 16/16 · 1.000
          started · 40:00
          +1.9
          saved above expected
          A
          the night
          Attempts faced
          22
          Avg chance faced
          8.4%
          Stopped vs expected
          1.000 vs 0.916
          Rebounds allowed
          1
          By dangerG/attxGsaved
          High danger0/10.3+0.3
          Medium0/131.4+1.4
          Low0/80.1+0.1
          Shorthanded0/30.4+0.4
          Tips & deflections0/20.2+0.2
          The save
          32% chance stopped, a snap from 7 ft · P2 06:05

          A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

          Every skater who dressed

          Who played

          Rated on what they produced and how fast

          Best skater on the ice by our rating: D. Mateychuk (CBJ), 28:56 of ice, 0-0, 76% of the expected goals while he was out.

          DET18 skaters
          SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
          M. RasmussenC18:460-057A
          D. JamesL12:340-044B
          J. CompherL20:570-048B
          J. Bernard-DockerD20:260-054B
          K. KolesarR16:450-066C
          J. LeonardL14:130-041C
          A. Sandin-PellikkaD22:410-051C
          M. Brandsegg-NygårdR14:250-040C
          K. DraperR12:220-046D
          D. ShineR11:250-054D
          J. BrysonD18:550-048D
          N. DanielsonC17:270-047D
          A. JohanssonD20:310-028D
          W. WallinderD22:010-035D
          S. BuiumD16:500-031F
          C. MazurL14:270-023F
          S. DriesC14:580-015F
          C. BearL15:170-014F
          CBJ18 skaters
          SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
          D. MateychukD28:560-076A+
          O. SillingerC18:170-084A+
          I. ProvorovD30:160-066A+
          G. RichardD20:150-043A
          M. PyyhtiaL18:230-069A
          J. WilliamsR17:470-068A
          L. PinelliC14:580-063A
          M. OlivierR18:170-046B
          J. EernisseC13:250-097B
          C. GarlandR20:270-055B
          O. KeskinenC15:560-046B
          J. MalatestaL11:590-066C
          B. BuckbergerD19:260-043C
          L. TuchL13:080-019C
          C. WhiteD17:480-064C
          O. GriffinC10:370-08D
          M. McCueC11:390-08D
          D. FabbroD6:580-02F

          xG% = share of expected goals while on the ice · PD/PT = penalties drawn / taken · “in N min” = a per-60 rate far above the raw total. Impact = 0.75 G + 0.7 A1 + 0.55 A2 + 0.075 SOG + 0.05 BLK + 0.15 penalties drawn − 0.15 taken + 0.01 faceoff wins − 0.01 losses + 0.3 individual xG + 0.5 on-ice xG for − 0.5 on-ice xG against. Rating = 65% impact + 35% impact per 60, as a percentile among the skaters in this game.

          Scratched, DET: B. Chiarot, J. Faulk, J. Gibson, A. Copp, D. Larkin, W. Lagesson and 50 more. Scratched, CBJ: C. Talbot, C. Coyle, E. Gudbranson, D. Severson, P. Quenneville, C. Soucy and 49 more. Referees Brandon Blandina and Morgan MacPhee; linesmen Brandon Grillo and Jesse Marquis.

          Graded against a league-average game

          Report card

          Seven dimensions · A+ to F
          DimensionDETCBJ
          Offense
          ▸Basis

          DET Created 1.99 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 1 high-danger shots (0.31 xG) and 17 rush shots (1.58 xG).

          CBJ Created 3.15 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 5 high-danger shots (1.11 xG) and 27 rush shots (2.29 xG).

          D+
          68
          B
          86
          Defense
          ▸Basis

          DET Allowed 3.15 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 5 high-danger shots (1.11 xG) and 27 rush shots (2.29 xG).

          CBJ Allowed 1.99 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 1 high-danger shots (0.31 xG) and 17 rush shots (1.58 xG).

          D
          64
          B-
          82
          Transition
          ▸Basis

          DET Rush shots 17–27, rush xG 1.58–2.29 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

          CBJ Rush shots 27–17, rush xG 2.29–1.58 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

          D
          63
          B+
          87
          Special teams
          ▸Basis

          DET 0-for-3 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.44 PP xG.

          CBJ 0-for-5 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.68 PP xG.

          F
          54
          F
          53
          Goaltending
          ▸Basis

          DET +3.15 goals saved above expected on 25 shots against.

          CBJ +1.99 goals saved above expected on 18 shots against.

          A+
          100
          A
          95
          Discipline
          ▸Basis

          DET Took 8 penalties for 22 PIM vs 6 for 18 on the other side.

          CBJ Took 6 penalties for 18 PIM vs 8 for 22 on the other side.

          D
          65
          B
          85
          Luck

          Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral

          ▸Basis

          DET Finishing -1.99 goals vs xG plus +3.15 GSAx of save luck = +1.16 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

          CBJ Finishing -3.15 goals vs xG plus +1.99 GSAx of save luck = -1.16 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

          B
          84
          D
          66
          Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
          What the model flagged
          LUCKCBJ

          Cold finishing night

          Scored 1 on 3.15 xG — -3.15 vs expected. The looks were there; the finish will come back.

          LUCKDET

          Cold finishing night

          Scored 0 on 1.99 xG — -1.99 vs expected. The looks were there; the finish will come back.

          WARNINGDET

          Rush defense leaked all night

          Gave up 27 rush shots worth 2.29 xG (0 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

          Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

          LUCKCBJ

          Wasted the best looks

          0-for-5 on high-danger chances worth 1.11 xG — that conversion rate won't stay at zero.

          STRENGTHDET

          D. Tarasov tilted the crease

          D. Tarasov stopped 15 of 15 (1.000), +1.89 goals above expected.

          STRENGTHCBJ

          Dangerous off the rush

          0 goals on 27 rush shots worth 2.29 xG.

          66 shots · press play to watch the game back

          Where the shots came from

          NHL play-by-play coordinates
          DET
          26 shots
          0
          Final
          66 shots
          CBJ
          40 shots
          0
          DET attackCBJ attack
          DET CBJ Goal

          Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

          Each club shoots toward its own end — DET left, CBJ right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

          Ranked from the box score

          Three stars

          Points first
          Three stars · computed, not voted
          I. Provorov
          #9 · D · CBJ
          0 G · 0 A · 3 SOG · 30:16 on ice
          D. Mateychuk
          #5 · D · CBJ
          0 G · 0 A · 4 SOG · 28:56 on ice
          A. Sandin-Pellikka
          #44 · D · DET
          0 G · 0 A · 0 SOG · 22:41 on ice
          Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
          What the model said beforehand

          Before the game

          Written Mon, Sep 21
          Open the pre-game read
          Written from the numbers

          The read

          Edited for clarity
          Preseason · exhibition

          Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The rates below are last season's; this exhibition will not count toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.

          ◆ By the ModelSep 22, 3:11 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

          The model projects a 3.2–3.3 game with Columbus at 52% win probability—as close to a pick'em as the numbers permit. Two evenly matched teams on paper means the outcome tilts entirely on goaltending.

          Alex DeBrincat drives Detroit's chance creation at 0.88 xG/60 with 17 goals and 2 high-danger goals. The Blue Jackets' priority is neutralizing him. Marco Kasper adds secondary scoring at 0.81 xG/60 with 7 goals and 1 high-danger goal, though his 6.1% shooting percentage suggests regression ahead.

          Boone Jenner is Columbus's engine: 11 goals, 21 assists, 0.98 xG/60, 2 high-danger goals. He's generating looks at a rate that matches DeBrincat's. Detroit must contain him. Mathieu Olivier (12 goals, 0.89 xG/60, 1 high-danger goal) provides secondary scoring; his 13.3% shooting will regress.

          Detroit holds a 50.9% expected goals rate, while Columbus sits at 50.0%—virtually identical. On shot volume, Columbus leads at 51.1% Corsi% to Detroit's 49.2%. Detroit's PDO of 0.986 indicates they're underperforming their shot quality; Columbus at 1.003 is nearly neutral. Both teams are at 0% high-danger goal rate and 0% rebound goal rate on current samples.

          Defensively, both teams have vulnerabilities: Axel Sandin-Pellikka for Detroit, Conor Garland for Columbus. Neither has proven reliable in transition. The gap is negligible everywhere—on expected goals, on efficiency, on volume. Goaltending will decide.

          Players to Watch

          Detroit: Alex DeBrincat (0.88 xG/60, 17G 28A, 2 HD goals, 9.0% shooting), Marco Kasper (0.81 xG/60, 7G 8A, 1 HD goal, 6.1% shooting)

          Columbus: Boone Jenner (0.98 xG/60, 11G 21A, 2 HD goals, 9.6% shooting), Mathieu Olivier (0.89 xG/60, 12G 9A, 1 HD goal, 13.3% shooting)

          Season rates in this preview are from 2025-26 — this season's sample isn't live yet.

          What the model said beforehand

          The model's lean

          CBJ 52%
          52%
          CBJ
          Model favorite
          48%
          52%
          DET50CBJ

          CBJ by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score DET 3.2–3.3 CBJ; 16% chance it's tied after 60.

          Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
          Season rates · 5v5

          Tale of the tape

          NHL stats API · our xG
          DET← edge
          edge →CBJ
          50.9%50.0%
          49.2%51.1%
          3.223.14
          3.103.14
          2.913.00
          3.103.06
          0.9861.003

          The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (0.986 vs 1.003) says CBJ has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

          Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
          Form · No games yet
          DET
          0-0-0
          +0 GD · 0d rest
          CBJ
          0-0-0
          +0 GD · 0d rest
          0.986
          DET PDO
          Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
          1.003
          CBJ PDO
          Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
          What decides it

          Keys to the game

          TACTICALCBJ

          Shutdown Assignment: Blue Jackets

          Key matchup: Neutralize Alex DeBrincat (17G, 0.88 xG/60, 2 HD goals)

          Key matchup: Neutralize Alex DeBrincat (17G, 0.88 xG/60, 2 HD goals)

          TACTICALDET

          Shutdown Assignment: Red Wings

          Key matchup: Neutralize Boone Jenner (11G, 0.98 xG/60, 2 HD goals)

          Key matchup: Neutralize Boone Jenner (11G, 0.98 xG/60, 2 HD goals)

          WARNINGDET

          Exploitable minutes: Axel Sandin-Pellikka

          Axel Sandin-Pellikka is on ice for 2.83 xGA/60 and 46 high-danger shots against this season.

          Hunt matchups against Axel Sandin-Pellikka's shifts with the top line.

          WARNINGCBJ

          Exploitable minutes: Conor Garland

          Conor Garland is on ice for 2.93 xGA/60 and 40 high-danger shots against this season.

          Hunt matchups against Conor Garland's shifts with the top line.

          Things to watch
          • Two evenly matched teams on paper — this one tilts on goaltending.
          Computed danger · scouting

          Players to watch

          NHL stats API · our xG
          DET
          Alex DeBrincat17G 28A
          0.88 xG/60 · 2 HD · 9.0% sh
          Marco Kasper7G 8A
          0.81 xG/60 · 1 HD · 6.1% sh
          CBJ
          Boone Jenner11G 21A
          0.98 xG/60 · 2 HD · 9.6% sh
          Mathieu Olivier12G 9A
          0.89 xG/60 · 1 HD · 13.3% sh
          Keep going

          Where to next

          Back to the front page