Backcheck
Pick club
Motion-blurred skater in a red sweater
← Mon, Sep 21 · the slate
Breakdown · MIN at CHI · Preseason

Blackhawks edge the Wild in overtime

Final / OTMon, Sep 21
MINMinnesota Wild3CHIChicago Blackhawks4
The verdict · stolen

The Blackhawks stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 2.54–2.13 and won anyway.

MIN 3 · CHI 4
Preseason · exhibition

Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The shots and grades below describe this game only: nothing here counts toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.

◆ By the ModelSep 28, 3:39 PMxG: xgboost-0.765Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Bowen Byram's wrist shot from 20 feet won it 29 seconds into overtime, giving Chicago a 4-3 victory over Minnesota. It was the kind of night where elite finishing and good goaltending beat superior opportunities.

The gap in the scoreboard started with C. Pickard. The Wild's netminder stopped 16 of 20 shots—a performance that surrendered nearly two goals more than the shot quality should have required. Minnesota's transition defense gave Chicago 19 rush chances, and the Blackhawks converted three of them. When one goalie's night falls short and the other stays firm, overtime follows.

B. Byram was the vehicle. He scored twice in regulation—a wrist shot from 29 feet off the rush and a power-play wrist shot from 28 feet—then sealed the result with the overtime winner from 20 feet. N. Lardis added a goal and an assist in the first period, both off the rush. Minnesota's B. Brink matched the intensity with two goals, a bright spot in a night where the Wild's chances outweighed their execution.

Minnesota's underlying workload was superior: expected goals led 2.54 to Chicago's 2.13, and the Wild generated 3 high-danger chances to Chicago's 1. Only S. Knight's 0.864 save percentage (19 stops on 22 shots) closed that gap. Knight kept Chicago in the game when they had no business staying close. That margin between good goaltending and average is what determined the ending.

The goals

  • MIN 1–0, 00:15 of the first. B. Brink, tip-in from 12 feet, a 6% chance by the model (off the rush), past S. Knight. Assists: D. Spacek. 10 seconds after a CHI hit by R. Kantserov. Win probability moved 14 points.
  • CHI 1–1, 08:40 of the first. N. Lardis, wrist shot from 11 feet, a 16% chance by the model (off the rush), past C. Pickard. Win probability moved 16 points.
  • CHI 1–2, 02:48 of the second. B. Byram, wrist shot from 29 feet, a 10% chance by the model, past C. Pickard. Assists: R. Greene, S. Rinzel. 8 seconds after a CHI shot by S. Rinzel. Win probability moved 19 points.
  • CHI 1–3, 00:24 of the third on the power play. B. Byram, wrist shot from 28 feet, a 5% chance by the model (off the rush), past C. Pickard. Assists: A. Vlasic, R. Kantserov. Win probability moved 14 points.
  • MIN 2–3, 04:07 of the third. M. Shabanov, wrist shot from 21 feet, an 8% chance by the model (off the rush), past S. Knight. Assists: Y. Trenin, V. Gustafsson Nyberg. Win probability moved 14 points.
  • MIN 3–3, 11:29 of the third. B. Brink, wrist shot from 24 feet, a 19% chance by the model (off the rush), past S. Knight. Win probability moved 32 points.
  • CHI 3–4, 00:29 of overtime. B. Byram, wrist shot from 21 feet, a 12% chance by the model (off the rush), past C. Pickard. Assists: N. Lardis, A. Frondell. Win probability moved 50 points.

What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · OT · Preseason · Sep 21
MIN
3
CHI
4

Blackhawks edge the Wild in overtime

Chances 2.5 – 2.1Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Wild deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value
MIN
2.54
CHI
2.13
54% of the chances46%

The board read MIN 3, CHI 4. The chances read MIN 2.5, CHI 2.1.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
CHI
+1.9
goals above expected
CHI2.13 expected · 4 scored
Expected
Scored
MIN2.54 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored

The Blackhawks scored 1.9 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
The swing
+50
win-probability points
50% → 100% for CHI
CHI 100%the game, start to finish
MIN 100%P1 · P2 · P3
CHIOT 00:29

B. Byram makes it 3–4.

In-game win model · fitted on 5,248 games
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 00:15MINB. Brink6%1–0
  2. P1 08:40CHIN. Lardis16%1–1
  3. P2 02:48CHIB. Byram10%1–2
  4. P3 00:24CHIB. ByramPP5%1–3
  5. P3 04:07MINM. Shabanov8%2–3
  6. P3 11:29MINB. Brink19%3–3
  7. OT 00:29CHIB. Byram12%3–4
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
MIN
34 shots
3
Final
65 shots
CHI
31 shots
4
MIN attackCHI attack
MIN CHI Goal
34
shots · 3 in
31
shots · 4 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
MINCHI
1 / 3
0.70 xG
High danger
0 / 1
0.19 xG
2 / 17
1.67 xG
Medium
3 / 15
1.71 xG
0 / 28
0.17 xG
Low
1 / 32
0.23 xG

High-danger looks: MIN 1 of 3, CHI 0 of 1.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
D
S. Knight
−0.5
CHI · 19/22 · 60:18
Best save · a 32% chance, snap from 8 ft · P3 06:53
F
C. Pickard
−1.9
MIN · 16/20 · 60:29
Best save · a 19% chance, snap from 25 ft · P2 12:07
Best skater on the ice
A+
CHI
B. Byram
D · impact 3.00
23:31
Ice time
3–0
G – A
0.42
Own xG
59%
xG share
Impact · top 4
B. Byram3.0A+
B. Brink2.1A+
N. Lardis1.8A+
M. Shabanov1.3A
Report card
MINCHI
OffenseC+D+
DefenseB-C-
TransitionBD
Special teamsFF
GoaltendingFC-
DisciplineB-C-
LuckDB
Seven dimensions, A+ to F · basis on the breakdown
Why it went the way it went
Why CHI won
  1. 01Dangerous off the rush
  2. 02B. Byram led the way
  3. 03The moment it turned
Why MIN lost
  1. 01Rush defense leaked all night
  2. 02C. Pickard gave one back
  3. 030-for-2 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.03 PP xG.
Our storyline model · reasoning on the breakdown
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Blackhawks edge the Wild in overtime

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 12 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 7–6
  1. 00:15MINB. Brink(D. Spacek)1–0

    Tip-in from 12 feet, a 6% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past S. Knight. 10s after a CHI hit by R. Kantserov. Win probability moved 14 points.On the ice: B. Brink, D. Hunt, D. Yurov, D. Spacek, M. Shabanov · against T. Teravainen, B. Byram, A. Vlasic, F. Nazar, R. Kantserov

  2. 08:40CHIN. Lardis1–1

    Wrist shot from 11 feet, a 16% chance (off the rush), past C. Pickard. Win probability moved 16 points.On the ice: T. Bertuzzi, B. Byram, A. Vlasic, N. Lardis, A. Frondell · against J. Kirkland, M. Shaw, C. Lambos, R. Lorenz, V. Gustafsson Nyberg

2ndshots 5–5
  1. 02:48CHIB. Byram(R. Greene, S. Rinzel)1–2

    Wrist shot from 29 feet, a 10% chance, past C. Pickard. 8s after a CHI shot by S. Rinzel. Win probability moved 19 points.On the ice: R. Donato, A. Mangiapane, W. Kaiser, O. Moore, A. Levshunov · against D. Hunt, D. Spacek, R. Heidt, R. Kumpulainen, C. Stramel

3rdshots 10–8
  1. 00:24CHIB. Byrampower play(A. Vlasic, R. Kantserov)1–3

    Wrist shot from 28 feet, a 5% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past C. Pickard. Win probability moved 14 points.On the ice: I. Cole, T. Bertuzzi, S. Rinzel, N. Lardis, A. Frondell · against M. McCarron, J. Kirkland, M. Shaw, C. Lambos, V. Gustafsson Nyberg

  2. 04:07MINM. Shabanov(Y. Trenin, V. Gustafsson Nyberg)2–3

    Wrist shot from 21 feet, an 8% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past S. Knight. Win probability moved 14 points.On the ice: M. McCarron, J. Kirkland, M. Shaw, M. Kiersted, B. Dexheimer · against T. Bertuzzi, B. Byram, A. Vlasic, N. Lardis, A. Frondell

  3. 11:29MINB. Brink3–3

    Wrist shot from 24 feet, a 19% chance (off the rush), past S. Knight. Win probability moved 32 points.On the ice: M. McCarron, J. Kirkland, Y. Trenin, C. Lambos, V. Gustafsson Nyberg · against I. Cole, R. Donato, A. Mangiapane, S. Rinzel, O. Moore

OTshots 0–1
  1. 00:29CHIB. Byram(N. Lardis, A. Frondell)3–4

    Wrist shot from 21 feet, a 12% chance (off the rush), past C. Pickard. Win probability moved 50 points.

score reads MIN–CHI

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
2.13
CHI chances
Goals their shots were worth
+1.9
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.021
CHI puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
50.0%
Shot attempts
Over half — they had the puck more
Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.54Expected goals2.13
MIN 54% of the chance quality
22Shots on goal20
3High-danger chances1
48All attempts (Corsi)48
Adjusted for score: MIN 52% · CHI 49%
Faceoffs · CHI won65%off38%neu50%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
MIN1 / 3 · 0.70 xG
CHI0 / 1 · 0.19 xG
Medium dangermid-range
MIN2 / 17 · 1.67 xG
CHI3 / 15 · 1.71 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
MIN0 / 28 · 0.17 xG
CHI1 / 32 · 0.23 xG

CHI went 3-for-15 from medium danger on 1.71 expected goals — 1.3 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
MIN
3 G · 2.54 xG · +0.5
CHI
4 G · 2.13 xG · +1.9
012345

MIN finished +0.5 against expected, CHI +1.9.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
MIN
WRIST2/24
TIP IN1/4
SNAP0/3
SLAP0/1
BACKHAND0/2
WRAP AROUND0/0
DEFLECTED0/0
OTHER0/14
CHI
WRIST4/22
TIP IN0/1
SNAP0/2
SLAP0/3
BACKHAND0/1
WRAP AROUND0/1
DEFLECTED0/1
OTHER0/17
MIN
CHI
Off the rush
3 G on 23
2.34 xG
3 G on 19
1.60 xG
Off rebounds
0 G on 0
0.00 xG
0 G on 1
0.14 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: MIN went 2-for-24, CHI 4-for-22. MIN scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
C. Pickard
MIN · 16/20 · .800
started · 60:29 · OT loss
-1.9
saved above expected
F
the night
Attempts faced
29
Avg chance faced
7.4%
Stopped vs expected
0.862 vs 0.926
Rebounds allowed
1
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/10.2+0.2
Medium3/151.7-1.3
Low1/130.2-0.8
Shorthanded1/20.2-0.8
Tips & deflections0/20.2+0.2
The save
19% chance stopped, a snap from 25 ft · P2 12:07
The one to have back
5% chance went in, a wrist from 28 ft · P3 00:24

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

S. Knight
CHI · 19/22 · .864
started · 60:18 · win
-0.5
saved above expected
D
the night
Attempts faced
33
Avg chance faced
7.7%
Stopped vs expected
0.909 vs 0.923
Rebounds allowed
0
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger1/30.7-0.3
Medium2/171.7-0.3
Low0/130.2+0.2
Shorthanded0/20.0+0.0
Tips & deflections1/40.3-0.7
The save
32% chance stopped, a snap from 8 ft · P3 06:53
The one to have back
6% chance went in, a tip-in from 12 ft · P1 00:15

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

Every skater who dressed

Who played

Rated on what they produced and how fast

Best skater on the ice by our rating: B. Byram (CHI), 23:31 of ice, 3-0, 59% of the expected goals while he was out.

MIN18 skaters
SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
B. BrinkR16:152-075A+
M. ShabanovR18:081-075A
Y. TreninC17:560-177A
V. Gustafsson NybergD18:570-168A
B. DexheimerD18:250-077B
D. SpacekD21:210-124B
M. KierstedD18:310-078B
M. McCarronC18:070-064B
J. KirklandC13:590-067C
D. YurovR14:490-073C
H. HaightC15:250-063C
M. ShawC15:150-055C
C. LambosD18:160-063C
R. LorenzL14:480-045C
R. HeidtC13:290-035D
C. StramelC13:250-026F
R. KumpulainenC11:220-029F
D. HuntD20:590-019F
CHI18 skaters
SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
B. ByramD23:313-059A+
N. LardisL15:581-159A+
R. GreeneC13:090-155A
S. RinzelD16:590-137A
A. FrondellC17:200-154B
A. VlasicD22:170-152B
R. KantserovR14:420-135B
T. BertuzziL16:260-054C
C. SmithR11:260-055C
O. MooreC15:310-040D
A. LevshunovD19:130-037D
R. DonatoC14:430-040D
F. NazarC16:090-041D
J. GreenwayL11:580-041D
A. MangiapaneL15:370-038D
I. ColeD16:460-031D
T. TeravainenC16:000-035F
W. KaiserD19:530-030F

xG% = share of expected goals while on the ice · PD/PT = penalties drawn / taken · “in N min” = a per-60 rate far above the raw total. Impact = 0.75 G + 0.7 A1 + 0.55 A2 + 0.075 SOG + 0.05 BLK + 0.15 penalties drawn − 0.15 taken + 0.01 faceoff wins − 0.01 losses + 0.3 individual xG + 0.5 on-ice xG for − 0.5 on-ice xG against. Rating = 65% impact + 35% impact per 60, as a percentile among the skaters in this game.

Scratched, MIN: N. Foligno, Z. Bogosian, J. Spurgeon, M. Foligno, T. Pitlick, B. Coleman and 35 more. Scratched, CHI: P. Kane, R. Ellis, D. Pouliot, D. Toninato, B. Seney, C. Fitzgerald and 35 more. Referees Wes McCauley and Furman South; linesmen Dylan Blujus and Ryan Jackson.

Graded against a league-average game

Report card

Seven dimensions · A+ to F
DimensionMINCHI
Offense
▸Basis

MIN Created 2.54 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 3 high-danger shots (0.70 xG) and 23 rush shots (2.34 xG).

CHI Created 2.13 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 1 high-danger shots (0.19 xG) and 19 rush shots (1.60 xG).

C+
78
D+
69
Defense
▸Basis

MIN Allowed 2.13 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 1 high-danger shots (0.19 xG) and 19 rush shots (1.60 xG).

CHI Allowed 2.54 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 3 high-danger shots (0.70 xG) and 23 rush shots (2.34 xG).

B-
81
C-
72
Transition
▸Basis

MIN Rush shots 23–19, rush xG 2.34–1.60 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

CHI Rush shots 19–23, rush xG 1.60–2.34 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

B
84
D
66
Special teams
▸Basis

MIN 0-for-2 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.03 PP xG.

CHI 0-for-1 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.14 PP xG.

F
49
F
54
Goaltending
▸Basis

MIN -1.87 goals saved above expected on 20 shots against.

CHI -0.46 goals saved above expected on 22 shots against.

F
56
C-
70
Discipline
▸Basis

MIN Took 2 penalties for 7 PIM vs 3 for 9 on the other side.

CHI Took 3 penalties for 9 PIM vs 2 for 7 on the other side.

B-
80
C-
70
Luck

Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral

▸Basis

MIN Finishing +0.46 goals vs xG plus -1.87 GSAx of save luck = -1.41 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

CHI Finishing +1.87 goals vs xG plus -0.46 GSAx of save luck = +1.41 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

D
64
B
86
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
What the model flagged
WARNINGCHI

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 23 rush shots worth 2.34 xG (3 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

STRENGTHMIN

Dangerous off the rush

3 goals on 23 rush shots worth 2.34 xG.

WARNINGMIN

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 19 rush shots worth 1.60 xG (3 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

STRENGTHCHI

Dangerous off the rush

3 goals on 19 rush shots worth 1.60 xG.

LUCKCHI

Ran hot in front of the net

Scored 4 on 2.13 xG — +1.87 above expected. Shooting luck like that regresses.

WARNINGMIN

C. Pickard gave one back

C. Pickard finished 16/20 (0.800), -1.87 goals vs expected.

65 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
MIN
34 shots
3
Final
65 shots
CHI
31 shots
4
MIN attackCHI attack
MIN CHI Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — MIN left, CHI right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
B. Byram
#24 · D · CHI
3 G · 0 A · 5 SOG · 23:31 on ice · +2
B. Brink
#10 · R · MIN
2 G · 0 A · 3 SOG · 16:15 on ice · +1
N. Lardis
#76 · L · CHI
1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 15:58 on ice · +2
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Mon, Sep 21
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
Preseason · exhibition

Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The rates below are last season's; this exhibition will not count toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.

◆ By the ModelSep 22, 3:22 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 3.3–3.0 game favoring Minnesota, crediting the Wild with 56% win probability. The advantage sits in shot quality: Minnesota's 52.0% 5v5 expected goals percentage against Chicago's 43.5% tells the story of a team being dramatically outchanced at even strength. The Corsi split (48.5% MIN, 46.0% CHI) confirms the volume imbalance. Minnesota's PDO (1.008) suggests a lucky season; Chicago's (0.996) implies a slightly unlucky one.

Spencer Knight has anchored his team's season with +11.7 goals saved above expected over 55 games, posting a 0.902 save percentage—elite goaltending in a volatile game. A. Soderblom and C. Pickard, both on back-to-backs, could face fatigue or backup substitution.

The matchups drive the intrigue. Minnesota's assignment is to neutralize Tyler Bertuzzi (20G, 0.85 xG/60, 7 HD goals, 18.0% shooting), who finishes at an elite rate despite generating chances at just 0.85 per 60. Connor Bedard (0.82 xG/60, 17G 27A, 5 HD goals, 11.8% shooting) props Chicago's top line through playmaking; his 11.8% shot conversion leaves room for either hot stretches or cold spells.

Chicago's assignment is to neutralize Matt Boldy (22G, 0.89 xG/60, 5 HD goals, 13.7% shooting), Minnesota's most lethal weapon. Boldy generates chances at a high rate and finishes them sharply—a complete player. Robby Fabbri (0.88 xG/60, 2G 3A, 1 HD goal, 6.9% shooting) offers secondary danger at comparable shot quality, though his shot efficiency (6.9%) lags behind his teammates, suggesting variance in either direction.

The structural mismatch is simple: Chicago cannot win a possession battle at 43.5% xG%. That rate demands goaltending heroics or elite finishing from high-danger slots. If Minnesota successfully contains Bertuzzi and Bedard, the Wild's structural advantage becomes nearly insurmountable.

Season rates in this preview are from 2025-26 — this season's sample isn't live yet.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

MIN 56%
56%
MIN
Model favorite
56%
44%
MIN50CHI

MIN by 12 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score MIN 3.3–3.0 CHI; 16% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
MIN← edge
edge →CHI
52.0%43.5%
48.5%46.0%
3.272.62
3.023.40
3.272.56
2.873.29
1.0080.996

MIN holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.008 vs 0.996) says MIN has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 1
MIN
1-0-0
+1 GD · 1d rest
CHI
0-0-1
-1 GD · 1d rest
1.008
MIN PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.996
CHI PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

WARNINGCHI

A. Soderblom on a back-to-back

A. Soderblom projects to start on 1 day of rest — watch for a backup start or tired legs.

Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.

WARNINGMIN

C. Pickard on a back-to-back

C. Pickard projects to start on 1 day of rest — watch for a backup start or tired legs.

Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.

TACTICALCHI

Shutdown Assignment: Blackhawks

Key matchup: Neutralize Matt Boldy (22G, 0.89 xG/60, 5 HD goals)

Key matchup: Neutralize Matt Boldy (22G, 0.89 xG/60, 5 HD goals)

TACTICALMIN

Shutdown Assignment: Wild

Key matchup: Neutralize Tyler Bertuzzi (20G, 0.85 xG/60, 7 HD goals)

Key matchup: Neutralize Tyler Bertuzzi (20G, 0.85 xG/60, 7 HD goals)

Where the edges live
  • The Wild own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 43.5%.
Things to watch
  • The Wild own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 43.5%.
  • A. Soderblom is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • C. Pickard is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
MIN
Expected in goal
C. Pickard
back-to-back.875 last start
Backup Filip Gustavsson · +3.7 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

CHI
Expected in goal
A. Soderblom
back-to-back.885 last start
Backup Spencer Knight · +11.7 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
MIN
Matt Boldy22G 18A
0.89 xG/60 · 5 HD · 13.7% sh
Robby Fabbri2G 3A
0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 6.9% sh
CHI
Tyler Bertuzzi20G 15A
0.85 xG/60 · 7 HD · 18.0% sh
Connor Bedard17G 27A
0.82 xG/60 · 5 HD · 11.8% sh
Keep going

Where to next

Back to the front page