Backcheck
Pick club
Motion-blurred skater in a Montreal Canadiens sweater
← Mon, Sep 21 · the slate
Breakdown · OTT at MTL · Preseason

Canadiens steal one from the Senators against the run of play

Final / OTMon, Sep 21
OTTOttawa Senators2MTLMontreal Canadiens3
The verdict · stolen

The Canadiens stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 0.00–0.00 and won anyway.

OTT 2 · MTL 3
Preseason · exhibition

Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The shots and grades below describe this game only: nothing here counts toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.

◆ By the ModelSep 28, 3:30 PMxG: heuristicEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Montreal won 3–2 in overtime despite being thoroughly outplayed. Ottawa controlled the play, but the Canadiens won on power-play execution that crested at the worst possible time for the Senators.

C. Caufield scored twice, tying the game on a power play in the third period and winning it 3:19 into overtime. L. Hutson assisted on both; N. Suzuki added a helper on the winner.

Earlier, the teams traded goals. W. Eklund put Ottawa ahead 1–0 at 1:29 of the first, but J. Struble answered at 4:33. D. Cozens restored Ottawa's lead 2–1 in the second with N. Matinpalo and T. Kleven setting him up, but the Canadiens had momentum working.

Discipline decided it. Ottawa took 6 penalties for 12 minutes; Montreal took 4 for 8. That power-play advantage, in the hands of a sniper like Caufield, swung a game Ottawa controlled through regulation.

Three stars: D. Cozens (Ottawa) with 1 goal and 1 assist; C. Caufield (Montreal) with 2 goals; L. Hutson (Montreal) with 2 assists.

The goals

  • OTT 1–0, 01:29 of the first. W. Eklund, shot, past S. Montembeault. Assists: D. Cozens. Win probability moved 14 points.
  • MTL 1–1, 04:33 of the first. J. Struble, shot, past S. Ersson. Win probability moved 15 points.
  • OTT 2–1, 19:47 of the second. D. Cozens, shot, past J. Dobes. Assists: N. Matinpalo, T. Kleven. Win probability moved 26 points.
  • MTL 2–2, 11:59 of the third on the power play. C. Caufield, shot, past S. Ersson. Assists: L. Hutson, J. Dobes. Win probability moved 35 points.
  • MTL 2–3, 03:19 of overtime. C. Caufield, shot, past S. Ersson. Assists: L. Hutson, N. Suzuki. Win probability moved 50 points.

What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · OT · Preseason · Sep 21
OTT
2
MTL
3

Canadiens steal one from the Senators against the run of play

Chances 0.0 – 0.0Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Canadiens took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value
OTT
0.00
MTL
0.00
100% of the chances0%

The board read OTT 2, MTL 3. The chances read OTT 0.0, MTL 0.0.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
MTL
+3.0
goals above expected
MTL0.00 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored
OTT0.00 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

The Canadiens scored 3.0 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
The swing
+50
win-probability points
50% → 100% for MTL
MTL 100%the game, start to finish
OTT 100%P1 · P2 · P3
MTLOT 03:19

C. Caufield makes it 2–3.

In-game win model · fitted on 5,248 games
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 01:29OTTW. Eklund1–0
  2. P1 04:33MTLJ. Struble1–1
  3. P2 19:47OTTD. Cozens2–1
  4. P3 11:59MTLC. CaufieldPP2–2
  5. OT 03:19MTLC. Caufield2–3
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
OTT
2 shots
2
Final
5 shots
MTL
3 shots
3
OTT attackMTL attack
OTT MTL Goal
2
shots · 2 in
3
shots · 3 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Best skater on the ice
A+
MTL
C. Caufield
R · impact 1.65
0:00
Ice time
2–0
G – A
0.00
Own xG
Impact · top 4
C. Caufield1.6A+
D. Cozens1.5A+
L. Hutson1.4A+
J. Struble1.0A
Report card
OTTMTL
Special teamsFD
DisciplineDB
Seven dimensions, A+ to F · basis on the breakdown
Why it went the way it went
Why MTL won
  1. 01Power play cashed in
  2. 02The moment it turned
  3. 03C. Caufield made a difference
Why OTT lost
  1. 01Paraded to the penalty box
  2. 02Power play came up empty
  3. 030-for-4 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.00 PP xG.
Our storyline model · reasoning on the breakdown
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Canadiens steal one from the Senators against the run of play

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 10 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 1–1
  1. 01:29OTTW. Eklund(D. Cozens)1–0

    Shot, past S. Montembeault. Win probability moved 14 points.

  2. 04:33MTLJ. Struble1–1

    Shot, past S. Ersson. Win probability moved 15 points.

2ndshots 1–0
  1. 19:47OTTD. Cozens(N. Matinpalo, T. Kleven)2–1

    Shot, past J. Dobes. Win probability moved 26 points.

3rdshots 0–1
  1. 11:59MTLC. Caufieldpower play(L. Hutson, J. Dobes)2–2

    Shot, past S. Ersson. Win probability moved 35 points.

OTshots 0–1
  1. 03:19MTLC. Caufield(L. Hutson, N. Suzuki)2–3

    Shot, past S. Ersson. Win probability moved 50 points.

score reads OTT–MTL

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
0.00
MTL chances
Goals their shots were worth
+3.0
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
Split by club

Who controlled the game

0.00Expected goals0.00
OTT 100% of the chance quality
0Shots on goal0
0High-danger chances0
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
OTT
2 G · 0.00 xG · +2.0
MTL
3 G · 0.00 xG · +3.0
01234

OTT finished +2.0 against expected, MTL +3.0.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Every skater who dressed

Who played

Rated on what they produced and how fast

Best skater on the ice by our rating: C. Caufield (MTL), 0:00 of ice, 2-0.

OTT18 skaters
SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
D. CozensC0:001-1—A+
W. EklundL0:001-0—A
N. MatinpaloD0:000-1—A
T. KlevenD0:000-1—A
A. BurakovskyL0:000-0—C
S. BlaisL0:000-0—C
C. YakemchukD0:000-0—C
J. SpenceD0:000-0—C
R. GreigC0:000-0—D
S. HallidayC0:000-0—D
F. ZetterlundL0:000-0—D
B. HuttonD0:000-0—D
M. AmadioR0:000-0—D
N. CousinsC0:000-0—D
H. HodgsonR0:000-0—F
D. BathersonR0:000-0—F
D. ToureD0:000-0—F
S. PintoC0:000-0—F
MTL18 skaters
SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
C. CaufieldR0:002-0—A+
L. HutsonD0:000-2—A+
J. StrubleD0:001-0—A
N. SuzukiC0:000-1—A
I. DemidovR0:000-0—B
A. TexierL0:000-0—B
S. PastujovR0:000-0—B
J. SlafkovskýL0:000-0—B
A. XhekajD0:000-0—B
O. KapanenC0:000-0—B
A. NewhookC0:000-0—B
D. ReinbacherD0:000-0—C
N. DobsonD0:000-0—C
K. DachC0:000-0—C
F. XhekajL0:000-0—C
A. EngstromD0:000-0—D
Z. BolducR0:000-0—D
B. BerardL0:000-0—F

xG% = share of expected goals while on the ice · PD/PT = penalties drawn / taken · “in N min” = a per-60 rate far above the raw total. Impact = 0.75 G + 0.7 A1 + 0.55 A2 + 0.075 SOG + 0.05 BLK + 0.15 penalties drawn − 0.15 taken + 0.01 faceoff wins − 0.01 losses + 0.3 individual xG + 0.5 on-ice xG for − 0.5 on-ice xG against. Rating = 65% impact + 35% impact per 60, as a percentile among the skaters in this game.

Scratched, OTT: C. Giroux, L. Ullmark, K. MacDermid, W. Foegele, T. Chabot, C. Crotty and 23 more. Scratched, MTL: C. Kreider, A. Belzile, P. Danault, M. Matheson, J. Anderson, K. Kahkonen and 17 more. Referees Frederick L'Ecuyer and Eric Furlatt; linesmen Anthony Lapointe and Jonathan Deschamps.

Graded against a league-average game

Report card

Seven dimensions · A+ to F
DimensionOTTMTL
Special teams
▸Basis

OTT 0-for-4 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.00 PP xG.

MTL 1-for-6 on the power play (17%; league ≈21%) with 0.00 PP xG.

F
48
D
65
Discipline
▸Basis

OTT Took 6 penalties for 12 PIM vs 4 for 8 on the other side.

MTL Took 4 penalties for 8 PIM vs 6 for 12 on the other side.

D
65
B
85
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
What the model flagged
STRENGTHMTL

Power play cashed in

1-for-6 on the power play (17%) on 0.00 PP xG.

TACTICALMTL

The moment it turned

Cole Caufield's shot in overtime swung the game.

WARNINGOTT

Paraded to the penalty box

Took 6 penalties for 12 minutes (opponent: 4 for 8).

Cut the stick infractions — the penalty differential is a controllable.

STRENGTHOTT

D. Cozens led the way

1G 1A — the game's first star.

WARNINGOTT

Power play came up empty

0-for-4 with the man advantage on 0.00 PP xG.

Rework PP entries and get a body to the net-front.

STRENGTHMTL

C. Caufield made a difference

2G — the game's second star.

5 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
OTT
2 shots
2
Final
5 shots
MTL
3 shots
3
OTT attackMTL attack
OTT MTL Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — OTT left, MTL right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
D. Cozens
#24 · C · OTT
1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · +2
C. Caufield
#13 · R · MTL
2 G · 0 A · 4 SOG · +1
L. Hutson
#48 · D · MTL
0 G · 2 A · 0 SOG · +2
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Mon, Sep 21
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Model draft
Preseason · exhibition

Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The rates below are last season's; this exhibition will not count toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.

◆ By the ModelSep 22, 3:18 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a OTT 3.3 - 3.2 MTL game with the Senators at 52% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

Keys to the game

  • Brady Tkachuk drives the Senators offense. Brady Tkachuk: 11G 20A, 1.19 xG/60, 2 high-danger goals.
  • Shutdown Assignment: Canadiens. Key matchup: Neutralize Brady Tkachuk (11G, 1.19 xG/60, 2 HD goals)
  • Shutdown Assignment: Senators. Key matchup: Neutralize Cole Caufield (33G, 0.97 xG/60, 1 HD goals)

Season 5v5 Numbers

MetricOTTMTL
xG%54.8%49.7%
Corsi%52.6%48.2%
PDO0.9931.019

Rates from 2025-26 — the 2026-27 sample isn't live yet.

Where the Edges Live

  • The Senators own the underlying play — 54.8% 5v5 xG vs 49.7%.
  • The Senators drive Corsi at 52.6% — expect territorial tilt.

Regression Watch

  • The Canadiens' PDO is 1.019 — running hot, expect some regression.

Rest edge. The Canadiens come in on 2 days of rest; the Senators on 0 days.

Players to Watch

OTT

  • Brady Tkachuk — 1.19 xG/60, 11G 20A, 2 HD goals, 7.5% shooting
  • Dylan Cozens — 1.00 xG/60, 13G 15A, 1 HD goals, 9.5% shooting

MTL

  • Cole Caufield — 0.97 xG/60, 33G 16A, 1 HD goals, 20.0% shooting
  • Oliver Kapanen — 0.83 xG/60, 19G 12A, 4 HD goals, 17.8% shooting

Key Matchups

OTT

  • Key matchup: Neutralize Brady Tkachuk (11G, 1.19 xG/60, 2 HD goals)
  • Watch Dylan Cozens (13G, 9.5% shooting)

MTL

  • Key matchup: Neutralize Cole Caufield (33G, 0.97 xG/60, 1 HD goals)
  • Watch Oliver Kapanen (19G, 17.8% shooting)

Tactical Notes

  • OTT: 0% HD goal rate, 0% rebound goal rate
  • OTT defensive weak link: Nick Jensen
  • MTL: 0% HD goal rate, 0% rebound goal rate
  • MTL defensive weak link: Mike Matheson

Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

OTT 52%
52%
OTT
Model favorite
52%
48%
OTT50MTL

OTT by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score OTT 3.3–3.2 MTL; 16% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
OTT← edge
edge →MTL
54.8%49.7%
52.6%48.2%
3.343.28
2.753.32
3.353.40
2.993.06
0.9931.019

OTT holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.993 vs 1.019) says MTL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 0–2
OTT
0-0-0
+0 GD · 0d rest
MTL
2-0-0
+4 GD · 2d rest
0.993
OTT PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.019
MTL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

TACTICALMTL

Shutdown Assignment: Canadiens

Key matchup: Neutralize Brady Tkachuk (11G, 1.19 xG/60, 2 HD goals)

Key matchup: Neutralize Brady Tkachuk (11G, 1.19 xG/60, 2 HD goals)

TACTICALOTT

Shutdown Assignment: Senators

Key matchup: Neutralize Cole Caufield (33G, 0.97 xG/60, 1 HD goals)

Key matchup: Neutralize Cole Caufield (33G, 0.97 xG/60, 1 HD goals)

STRENGTHOTT

Brady Tkachuk drives the Senators offense

Brady Tkachuk: 11G 20A, 1.19 xG/60, 2 high-danger goals.

WARNINGOTT

Exploitable minutes: Nick Jensen

Nick Jensen is on ice for 2.45 xGA/60 and 36 high-danger shots against this season.

Hunt matchups against Nick Jensen's shifts with the top line.

Where the edges live
  • The Senators own the underlying play — 54.8% 5v5 xG vs 49.7%.
  • The Senators drive Corsi at 52.6% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
  • The Canadiens' PDO is 1.019 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
  • The Senators own the underlying play — 54.8% 5v5 xG vs 49.7%.
  • The Senators drive Corsi at 52.6% — expect territorial tilt.
  • The Canadiens' PDO is 1.019 — running hot, expect some regression.
  • The Canadiens have 2 more days of rest.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
OTT
Expected in goal
—
no game on file

No completed game on file for this club yet.

MTL
Expected in goal
J. Fowler
2 days rest.900 last start
Backup Jakub Dobes · +7.0 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
OTT
Brady Tkachuk11G 20A
1.19 xG/60 · 2 HD · 7.5% sh
Dylan Cozens13G 15A
1.00 xG/60 · 1 HD · 9.5% sh
MTL
Cole Caufield33G 16A
0.97 xG/60 · 1 HD · 20.0% sh
Oliver Kapanen19G 12A
0.83 xG/60 · 4 HD · 17.8% sh
Keep going

Where to next

Back to the front page