Backcheck
Pick club
Motion-blurred skater in a Carolina Hurricanes sweater
← Tue, Sep 22 · the slate
Breakdown · FLA at CAR · Preseason

Hurricanes edge the Panthers in a shootout

Final / OTTue, Sep 22
FLAFlorida Panthers2CARCarolina Hurricanes3
The verdict · stolen

The Hurricanes stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.90–3.59 and won anyway.

FLA 2 · CAR 3
Preseason · exhibition

Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The shots and grades below describe this game only: nothing here counts toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.

◆ By the ModelSep 22, 10:08 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Hurricanes beat the Panthers 3-2 in a shootout despite Florida's superior play. The Panthers generated 3.90 expected goals against Carolina's 3.59, yet found themselves in overtime anyway. They underperformed that workload by 1.90 goals — a failure to finish that shootouts punish without mercy. F. Unger Sorum ended it from the doorstep.

B. Tkachuk put Florida ahead at 04:31 of the first, but B. Nadeau replied 29 seconds later. A. Barkov restored the Panthers' lead 18 seconds after that, and the teams stayed locked through a tight second period until J. Robidas tied it at 11:25. Regulation finished 2-2. C. Primeau stopped all 20 shots he faced, finishing at 1.000 save percentage and 2.36 goals saved above expected — a performance that carried the Hurricanes through.

The Panthers' failure began in the high-danger areas. They faced 6 scoring chances from the slot and converted zero; Carolina matched that futility at 0-for-6. The shot battle ran the other way. Florida sent 33 attempts, Carolina 26 — volume that gave the Panthers dominance but no results. Where the gap widened was transition. The Panthers ripped 33 shot attempts off the rush worth 3.02 expected goals; the Hurricanes managed only 21 rush opportunities for 2.40 expected goals. Faster play, better positioning, still no finish.

Special teams went silent both ways. Florida went 0-for-5 on the power play (0%; the league averages about 21%) while generating 1.55 expected goals with the advantage. Carolina fared worse at 0-for-4 (0%) with 0.88 expected goals. Neither team found the opener when it mattered.

B. Tkachuk's goal and assist in 09:40 and A. Barkov's goal and assist in 18:11 built Florida's case. B. Nadeau scored the only Carolina goal in open play. But in a game the numbers favored Florida, a single moment — a backhander from the crease — flipped the result.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · SO · Preseason · Sep 22
FLA
2
CAR
3

Hurricanes edge the Panthers in a shootout

Chances 3.9 – 3.6Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Hurricanes took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value
FLA
3.90
CAR
3.59
52% of the chances48%

The board read FLA 2, CAR 3. The chances read FLA 3.9, CAR 3.6.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
CAR
−0.6
goals above expected
CAR3.59 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored
FLA3.90 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

The Panthers left 1.9 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 04:31FLAB. Tkachuk1–0
  2. P1 07:00CARB. Nadeau1–1
  3. P1 07:18FLAA. Barkov2–1
  4. P2 11:25CARJ. Robidas2–2
  5. SO 00:00CARB. NadeauPP2–2
  6. SO 00:00CARF. Unger SorumPP2–2
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
FLA
46 shots
2
Final
85 shots
CAR
39 shots
2
FLA attackCAR attack
FLA CAR Goal

Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

46
shots · 2 in
39
shots · 2 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
FLACAR
0 / 6
1.37 xG
High danger
0 / 6
1.30 xG
1 / 18
1.88 xG
Medium
1 / 15
1.90 xG
1 / 38
0.65 xG
Low
1 / 30
0.40 xG

The Panthers went 0 for 6 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A+
C. Primeau
+3.9
CAR · 20/20
A+
J. Markstrom
+2.6
FLA · 12/13
+2 more on the full breakdown
Report card
FLACAR
OffenseA+A-
DefenseFF
TransitionB+D
Special teamsD-F
GoaltendingA-A
DisciplineB-C-
LuckCC+
Seven dimensions, A+ to F · basis on the breakdown
Why it went the way it went
Why CAR won
  1. 01C. Primeau stole it
  2. 02Dangerous off the rush
  3. 03B. Bussi was perfect on high danger
Why FLA lost
  1. 01Rush defense leaked all night
  2. 02Cold finishing night
  3. 03Wasted the best looks
Our storyline model · reasoning on the breakdown
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Hurricanes edge the Panthers in a shootout

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 10 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 9–6
  1. 04:31FLAB. Tkachuk(S. Reinhart, A. Barkov)1–0
  2. 07:00CARB. Nadeau(M. Reilly, A. Heimosalmi)1–1
  3. 07:18FLAA. Barkov(B. Tkachuk, S. Jones)2–1
2ndshots 9–11
  1. 11:25CARJ. Robidas2–2
3rdshots 10–8no goals
    OTshots 5–1no goals
      SO
      1. 00:00CARB. Nadeaupower play2–2
      2. 00:00CARF. Unger Sorumpower play2–2

      score reads FLA–CAR

      Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
      Process vs result

      The numbers

      XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
      3.59
      CAR chances
      Goals their shots were worth
      −0.6
      Finishing
      Goals below what those chances were worth
      1.007
      CAR puck luck
      About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
      45.1%
      Shot attempts
      Under half — they were outshot
      Split by club

      Who controlled the game

      3.90Expected goals3.59
      FLA 52% of the chance quality
      33Shots on goal26
      6High-danger chances6
      62All attempts (Corsi)51
      Adjusted for score: FLA 53% · CAR 47%
      Faceoffs · CAR won37%off31%neu45%def
      Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
      How the game was won

      The danger ladder

      shotsgoalsexpected
      High dangerslot & crease
      FLA0 / 6 · 1.37 xG
      CAR0 / 6 · 1.30 xG
      Medium dangermid-range
      FLA1 / 18 · 1.88 xG
      CAR1 / 15 · 1.90 xG
      Low dangerperimeter & point
      FLA1 / 38 · 0.65 xG
      CAR1 / 30 · 0.40 xG

      FLA went 0-for-6 from high danger on 1.37 expected goals — 1.4 left on the table.

      Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
      The luck layer

      Finishing vs expected

      expectedactual
      FLA
      2 G · 3.90 xG · -1.9
      CAR
      3 G · 3.59 xG · -0.6
      012345

      FLA finished -1.9 against expected, CAR -0.6.

      Source · Backcheck xG model
      Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
      What they shot — and what went in

      Shot diet

      goalsshots
      FLA
      SNAP1/17
      WRIST1/15
      TIP IN0/4
      BACKHAND0/3
      SLAP0/5
      BETWEEN LEGS0/1
      WRAP AROUND0/1
      DEFLECTED0/0
      OTHER0/16
      CAR
      SNAP2/23
      WRIST0/10
      TIP IN0/2
      BACKHAND0/3
      SLAP0/0
      BETWEEN LEGS0/0
      WRAP AROUND0/0
      DEFLECTED0/1
      OTHER0/12
      FLA
      CAR
      Off the rush
      1 G on 33
      3.02 xG
      1 G on 21
      2.40 xG
      Off rebounds
      0 G on 2
      0.12 xG
      1 G on 4
      0.67 xG

      Snap shots carried the volume: FLA went 1-for-17, CAR 2-for-23.

      Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
      New to these numbers?

      Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

      The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

      xG
      Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
      HD
      High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
      Corsi
      Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
      Adj.
      Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
      GSAx
      Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
      PDO
      Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
      Shot by shot

      In the net

      Graded on goals saved above expected
      J. Markstrom
      FLA · 12/13 · .923
      +2.6
      saved above expected
      A+
      the night
      By dangerG/attxGsaved
      High danger0/61.3+1.3
      Medium1/151.9+0.9
      Low1/300.4-0.6

      A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

      A. Schmid
      FLA · 12/13 · .923
      +2.6
      saved above expected
      A+
      the night
      By dangerG/attxGsaved
      High danger0/61.3+1.3
      Medium1/151.9+0.9
      Low1/300.4-0.6

      A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

      B. Bussi
      CAR · 11/13 · .846
      +1.9
      saved above expected
      A
      the night
      By dangerG/attxGsaved
      High danger0/61.4+1.4
      Medium1/181.9+0.9
      Low1/380.7-0.3

      A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

      C. Primeau
      CAR · 20/20 · 1.000
      +3.9
      saved above expected
      A+
      the night
      By dangerG/attxGsaved
      High danger0/61.4+1.4
      Medium1/181.9+0.9
      Low1/380.7-0.3

      A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

      Graded against a league-average game

      Report card

      Seven dimensions · A+ to F
      DimensionFLACAR
      Offense
      ▸Basis

      FLA Created 3.90 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 6 high-danger shots (1.37 xG) and 33 rush shots (3.02 xG).

      CAR Created 3.59 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 6 high-danger shots (1.30 xG) and 21 rush shots (2.40 xG).

      A+
      97
      A-
      91
      Defense
      ▸Basis

      FLA Allowed 3.59 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 6 high-danger shots (1.30 xG) and 21 rush shots (2.40 xG).

      CAR Allowed 3.90 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 6 high-danger shots (1.37 xG) and 33 rush shots (3.02 xG).

      F
      59
      F
      53
      Transition
      ▸Basis

      FLA Rush shots 33–21, rush xG 3.02–2.40 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

      CAR Rush shots 21–33, rush xG 2.40–3.02 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

      B+
      87
      D
      63
      Special teams
      ▸Basis

      FLA 0-for-5 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 1.55 PP xG.

      CAR 0-for-4 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.88 PP xG.

      D-
      60
      F
      57
      Goaltending
      ▸Basis

      FLA +1.59 goals saved above expected on 26 shots against.

      CAR +1.90 goals saved above expected on 33 shots against.

      A-
      91
      A
      94
      Discipline
      ▸Basis

      FLA Took 5 penalties for 13 PIM vs 6 for 15 on the other side.

      CAR Took 6 penalties for 15 PIM vs 5 for 13 on the other side.

      B-
      80
      C-
      70
      Luck

      Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral

      ▸Basis

      FLA Finishing -1.90 goals vs xG plus +1.59 GSAx of save luck = -0.31 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

      CAR Finishing -1.59 goals vs xG plus +1.90 GSAx of save luck = +0.31 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

      C
      73
      C+
      77
      Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
      What the model flagged
      STRENGTHCAR

      C. Primeau stole it

      C. Primeau stopped 20 of 20 (1.000) — +2.36 goals saved above expected in a 1-goal game.

      WARNINGCAR

      Rush defense leaked all night

      Gave up 33 rush shots worth 3.02 xG (1 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

      Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

      STRENGTHFLA

      Dangerous off the rush

      1 goals on 33 rush shots worth 3.02 xG.

      WARNINGFLA

      Rush defense leaked all night

      Gave up 21 rush shots worth 2.40 xG (1 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

      Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

      STRENGTHCAR

      Dangerous off the rush

      1 goals on 21 rush shots worth 2.40 xG.

      LUCKCAR

      Wasted the best looks

      0-for-6 on high-danger chances worth 1.30 xG — that conversion rate won't stay at zero.

      85 shots · press play to watch the game back

      Where the shots came from

      NHL play-by-play coordinates
      FLA
      46 shots
      2
      Final
      85 shots
      CAR
      39 shots
      2
      FLA attackCAR attack
      FLA CAR Goal

      Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

      Each club shoots toward its own end — FLA left, CAR right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

      Ranked from the box score

      Three stars

      Points first
      Three stars · computed, not voted
      A. Barkov
      #16 · C · FLA
      1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 18:11 on ice · +2
      B. Tkachuk
      #8 · L · FLA
      1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 09:40 on ice · +2
      B. Nadeau
      #29 · L · CAR
      1 G · 0 A · 7 SOG · 25:10 on ice · +1
      Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
      What the model said beforehand

      Before the game

      Written Tue, Sep 22
      Open the pre-game read
      Written from the numbers

      The read

      Edited for clarity
      Preseason · exhibition

      Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The rates below are last season's; this exhibition will not count toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.

      ◆ By the ModelSep 21, 11:39 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

      The model sees a Hurricanes victory. Projected final: Carolina 3.0 to 3.5, Florida. Win probability: 57% Hurricanes.

      Carolina owns the underlying play by a clear margin. At 5v5, the Hurricanes post 55.7% expected goals against the Panthers' 50.6%. Shot-attempt share widens that advantage to 59.1% Corsi. The territorial tilt is decisive—Carolina will spend most of the night in Florida's half.

      That dominance is real but not yet fully reflected in results. Carolina's PDO sits at 0.984, running cold for the season, while Florida's 0.989 reflects better luck in both shooting and goaltending. A team with Carolina's underlying metrics but a cold PDO is due for positive regression. Sergei Bobrovsky compounds the pressure: his -14.9 Goals Saved Above Expected mark over 52 games flags a structural weakness that will worsen if the Hurricanes press their territorial advantage.

      The shutdown matchups isolate the risk vectors. Carolina's defense draws Sam Bennett, Florida's most durable scorer. Bennett has 18 goals on 0.97 expected goals per 60 minutes—high volume at high quality—with 6 high-danger conversions. His 13.1% shooting percentage reflects some variance, but the underlying threat is stable. If Bennett's line finds space, Florida's offense will punch above its underlying metrics.

      For Florida, the assignment is Jackson Blake. Blake's 1.06 xG/60 leads this group of players. He owns 14 goals and 19 assists, but only 2 high-danger conversions—a sign that his scoring lags his creation rate. At 10.9% shooting, there is margin for positive variance, but Carolina's task is to suppress Blake's volume outright.

      Seth Jarvis shadows Blake's production (17G, 0.98 xG/60) as a secondary threat. Brad Marchand's 17 goals reflect 19.5% shooting—substantially above his 0.93 xG/60 would predict. That variance is a Florida swing component and a regression risk.

      The model favors Carolina in play. Bobrovsky's leakage and the Hurricanes' cold PDO create the edge. Florida's path runs through Bennett's persistence and Blake's suppression.

      Season rates in this preview are from 2025-26 — this season's sample isn't live yet.

      What the model said beforehand

      The model's lean

      CAR 57%
      58%
      CAR
      Model favorite
      42%
      58%
      FLA50CAR

      CAR by 16 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score FLA 3.0–3.5 CAR; 16% chance it's tied after 60.

      Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
      Season rates · 5v5

      Tale of the tape

      NHL stats API · our xG
      FLA← edge
      edge →CAR
      50.6%55.7%
      51.9%59.1%
      3.223.59
      3.142.85
      3.003.55
      3.342.88
      0.9890.984

      CAR holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.989 vs 0.984) says FLA has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

      Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
      Form · Last 1
      FLA
      1-0-0
      +3 GD · 2d rest
      CAR
      0-1-0
      -3 GD · 2d rest
      0.989
      FLA PDO
      Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
      0.984
      CAR PDO
      Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
      What decides it

      Keys to the game

      WARNINGFLA

      Sergei Bobrovsky has leaked goals all season

      Sergei Bobrovsky: -14.9 GSAx over 52 games.

      Shoot from everywhere — volume beats a cold crease.

      TACTICALCAR

      Shutdown Assignment: Hurricanes

      Key matchup: Neutralize Sam Bennett (18G, 0.97 xG/60, 6 HD goals)

      Key matchup: Neutralize Sam Bennett (18G, 0.97 xG/60, 6 HD goals)

      TACTICALFLA

      Shutdown Assignment: Panthers

      Key matchup: Neutralize Jackson Blake (14G, 1.06 xG/60, 2 HD goals)

      Key matchup: Neutralize Jackson Blake (14G, 1.06 xG/60, 2 HD goals)

      WARNINGFLA

      Exploitable minutes: Brad Marchand

      Brad Marchand is on ice for 3.24 xGA/60 and 31 high-danger shots against this season.

      Hunt matchups against Brad Marchand's shifts with the top line.

      Where the edges live
      • The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 55.7% 5v5 xG vs 50.6%.
      • The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 59.1% — expect territorial tilt.
      Regression watch
      • The Hurricanes' PDO is 0.984 — running cold, due for positive regression.
      Things to watch
      • The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 55.7% 5v5 xG vs 50.6%.
      • The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 59.1% — expect territorial tilt.
      • The Hurricanes' PDO is 0.984 — running cold, due for positive regression.
      Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

      Lineups

      NHL box score
      FLA
      Expected in goal
      J. Markstrom
      2 days rest.875 last start
      Backup Sergei Bobrovsky · -14.9 GSAx this season

      No completed game on file for this club yet.

      CAR
      Expected in goal
      P. Kochetkov
      2 days rest.848 last start
      Backup Brandon Bussi · -3.3 GSAx this season

      No completed game on file for this club yet.

      Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

      Computed danger · scouting

      Players to watch

      NHL stats API · our xG
      FLA
      Sam Bennett18G 19A
      0.97 xG/60 · 6 HD · 13.1% sh
      Brad Marchand17G 9A
      0.93 xG/60 · 3 HD · 19.5% sh
      CAR
      Jackson Blake14G 19A
      1.06 xG/60 · 2 HD · 10.9% sh
      Seth Jarvis17G 12A
      0.98 xG/60 · 1 HD · 11.9% sh
      Keep going

      Where to next

      Back to the front page