Motion-blurred skater in a New York Islanders sweater

Breakdown · NYI at NYR · Preseason

Islanders run the Rangers off the ice on the underlying numbers

FinalTue, Sep 22

NYINew York Islanders4 NYRNew York Rangers3

The verdict · earned

The Islanders earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

NYI 4 · NYR 3

Preseason · exhibition

Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The shots and grades below describe this game only: nothing here counts toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.

◆ By the ModelSep 22, 10:11 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Raw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Islanders edged the Rangers 4-3 and the underlying numbers backed it up — they controlled 61% of 5v5 expected goals (3.77–2.44).

The numbers behind the result. The Rangers held 40% of shot attempts (19–28 on goal). Expected goals finished 2.44–3.77 (39–61% split), and high-danger chances went 2–3.

Turning point. Matias Maccelli's backhander from the doorstep (P3, 09:29).

Goaltending

I. Sorokin (NYI): 6/9 saves, 0.667 SV% (-1.84 vs expected)
S. Varlamov (NYI): 10/10 saves, 1.000 SV% (+1.29 vs expected)
I. Shesterkin (NYR): 18/20 saves, 0.900 SV% (+0.69 vs expected)
S. Martin (NYR): 6/8 saves, 0.750 SV% (-0.92 vs expected)

Storylines

S. Varlamov (NYI) stopped 1.3 goals above expected.
I. Sorokin (NYI) gave up 1.8 goals more than expected — well below their workload.
NYI had the higher quality looks — 0.072 xG/shot vs 0.054.
NYR was lethal off the rush — 2 goals on 18 rush chances.
NYI was lethal off the rush — 3 goals on 24 rush chances.
NYR created 5 rebound opportunities (1 converted) — crashing the net effectively.
NYI created 5 rebound opportunities (0 converted) — crashing the net effectively.
S. Varlamov (NYI) saved 2.4 goals above expected — stole the show.
I. Shesterkin (NYR) saved 1.8 goals above expected — stole the show.
S. Martin (NYR) saved 1.8 goals above expected — stole the show.

Final: NYI 4 – NYR 3

Data: NHL API, MoneyPuck xG model

Goals

P1 08:23 — NYR C. Beaudoin (E. Tolvanen, S. Durzi), power play → 0-1
P2 06:03 — NYR P. Dorofeyev (O. Bjorkstrand, J. Miller) → 0-2
P2 07:20 — NYR T. Raddysh (A. Smits, B. Schneider) → 0-3
P2 11:36 — NYI K. MacLean (M. Chaffee, C. Cizikas) → 1-3
P2 17:47 — NYI M. Schaefer (M. Maccelli, B. Schenn), power play → 2-3
P3 04:02 — NYI M. Maccelli (B. Horvat, M. Schaefer), power play → 3-3
P3 09:29 — NYI M. Maccelli (M. Schaefer, K. Palmieri), power play → 4-3

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Preseason · Sep 22

NYI

NYR

Islanders run the Rangers off the ice on the underlying numbers

Chances 3.8 – 2.4Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Islanders earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value

NYI

3.77

NYR

2.44

61% of the chances39%

The board read NYI 4, NYR 3. The chances read NYI 3.8, NYR 2.4.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

NYI

+0.2

goals above expected

NYI3.77 expected · 4 scored

Expected

Scored

NYR2.44 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 08:23NYRC. BeaudoinPP0–1
P2 06:03NYRP. Dorofeyev0–2
P2 07:20NYRT. Raddysh0–3
P2 11:36NYIK. MacLean1–3
P2 17:47NYIM. SchaeferPP2–3
P3 04:02NYIM. MaccelliPP3–3
P3 09:29NYIM. MaccelliPP4–3

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

NYI

40 shots

Final

70 shots

NYR

30 shots

NYI NYR GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 4 in

shots · 3 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

NYINYR

1 / 3

0.94 xG

High danger

0 / 2

0.42 xG

3 / 22

2.43 xG

Medium

3 / 14

1.65 xG

0 / 27

0.39 xG

Low

0 / 29

0.37 xG

High-danger looks: NYI 1 of 3, NYR 0 of 2.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

S. Varlamov

+2.4

NYI · 10/10

I. Shesterkin

+1.8

NYR · 18/20

+2 more on the full breakdown

Report card

NYINYR

OffenseA-C

DefenseC+F

TransitionBD

Special teamsA+F

GoaltendingD+C

DisciplineAF

LuckC-C+

Seven dimensions, A+ to F · basis on the breakdown

Why it went the way it went

Why NYI won

01Dangerous off the rush
02Power play cashed in
03Won on the merits

Why NYR lost

01Rush defense leaked all night
02Paraded to the penalty box
03S. Martin gave one back

Our storyline model · reasoning on the breakdown

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Islanders run the Rangers off the ice on the underlying numbers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 10 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 8–5

08:23NYRC. Beaudoinpower play(E. Tolvanen, S. Durzi)0–1

2ndshots 12–6

06:03NYRP. Dorofeyev(O. Bjorkstrand, J. Miller)0–2
07:20NYRT. Raddysh(A. Smits, B. Schneider)0–3
11:36NYIK. MacLean(M. Chaffee, C. Cizikas)1–3
17:47NYIM. Schaeferpower play(M. Maccelli, B. Schenn)2–3

3rdshots 8–8

04:02NYIM. Maccellipower play(B. Horvat, M. Schaefer)3–3
09:29NYIM. Maccellipower play(M. Schaefer, K. Palmieri)4–3

score reads NYI–NYR

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

3.77

NYI chances

Goals their shots were worth

+0.2

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.010

NYI puck luck

About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces

53.6%

Shot attempts

Over half — they had the puck more

Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.77Expected goals2.44

NYI 61% of the chance quality

28Shots on goal19

3High-danger chances2

52All attempts (Corsi)45

Adjusted for score: NYI 56% · NYR 44%

Faceoffs · NYR won55%off40%neu55%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

NYI1 / 3 · 0.94 xG

NYR0 / 2 · 0.42 xG

Medium dangermid-range

NYI3 / 22 · 2.43 xG

NYR3 / 14 · 1.65 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

NYI0 / 27 · 0.39 xG

NYR0 / 29 · 0.37 xG

NYR went 3-for-14 from medium danger on 1.65 expected goals — 1.4 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

NYI

4 G · 3.77 xG · +0.2

NYR

3 G · 2.44 xG · +0.6

012345

NYI finished +0.2 against expected, NYR +0.6.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

NYI

SNAP0/26

WRIST3/4

BACKHAND1/5

TIP IN0/2

SLAP0/2

BAT0/1

OTHER0/12

NYR

SNAP1/4

WRIST1/18

BACKHAND0/3

TIP IN1/3

SLAP0/2

BAT0/0

OTHER0/15

NYI

NYR

Off the rush

3 G on 24

2.08 xG

2 G on 18

1.47 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 5

1.04 xG

1 G on 5

0.83 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: NYI went 0-for-26, NYR 1-for-4. NYI scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

I. Sorokin

NYI · 6/9 · .667

-0.6

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/20.4+0.4

Medium3/141.6-1.4

Low0/290.4+0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

S. Varlamov

NYI · 10/10 · 1.000

+2.4

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/20.4+0.4

Medium3/141.6-1.4

Low0/290.4+0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

I. Shesterkin

NYR · 18/20 · .900

+1.8

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/30.9-0.1

Medium3/222.4-0.6

Low0/270.4+0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

S. Martin

NYR · 6/8 · .750

+1.8

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/30.9-0.1

Medium3/222.4-0.6

Low0/270.4+0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

Graded against a league-average game

Report card

Seven dimensions · A+ to F

DimensionNYINYR

Offense

▸Basis

NYI Created 3.77 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 3 high-danger shots (0.94 xG) and 24 rush shots (2.08 xG).

NYR Created 2.44 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 2 high-danger shots (0.42 xG) and 18 rush shots (1.47 xG).

A-

Defense

▸Basis

NYI Allowed 2.44 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 2 high-danger shots (0.42 xG) and 18 rush shots (1.47 xG).

NYR Allowed 3.77 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 3 high-danger shots (0.94 xG) and 24 rush shots (2.08 xG).

C+

Transition

▸Basis

NYI Rush shots 24–18, rush xG 2.08–1.47 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

NYR Rush shots 18–24, rush xG 1.47–2.08 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

Special teams

▸Basis

NYI 3-for-5 on the power play (60%; league ≈21%) with 1.02 PP xG.

NYR 0-for-1 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.07 PP xG.

A+

100

Goaltending

▸Basis

NYI -0.56 goals saved above expected on 19 shots against.

NYR -0.23 goals saved above expected on 28 shots against.

D+

Discipline

▸Basis

NYI Took 4 penalties for 11 PIM vs 8 for 19 on the other side.

NYR Took 8 penalties for 19 PIM vs 4 for 11 on the other side.

Luck

Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral

▸Basis

NYI Finishing +0.23 goals vs xG plus -0.56 GSAx of save luck = -0.33 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

NYR Finishing +0.56 goals vs xG plus -0.23 GSAx of save luck = +0.33 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

C-

C+

Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately

What the model flagged

WARNINGNYR

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 24 rush shots worth 2.08 xG (3 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

STRENGTHNYI

Dangerous off the rush

3 goals on 24 rush shots worth 2.08 xG.

STRENGTHNYI

Power play cashed in

3-for-5 on the power play (60%) on 1.02 PP xG.

WARNINGNYI

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 18 rush shots worth 1.47 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

WARNINGNYR

Paraded to the penalty box

Took 8 penalties for 19 minutes (opponent: 4 for 11).

Cut the stick infractions — the penalty differential is a controllable.

STRENGTHNYR

Dangerous off the rush

2 goals on 18 rush shots worth 1.47 xG.

70 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

NYI

40 shots

Final

70 shots

NYR

30 shots

NYI NYR GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — NYI left, NYR right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

M. Schaefer

#48 · D · NYI

1 G · 2 A · 6 SOG · 27:14 on ice · -1

M. Maccelli

#63 · L · NYI

2 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 19:08 on ice

S. Durzi

#5 · D · NYR

0 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 23:32 on ice · +2

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Tue, Sep 22

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

Preseason · exhibition

Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The rates below are last season's; this exhibition will not count toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.

◆ By the ModelSep 21, 11:40 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 3.1–3.3 game with the Rangers at 52% win probability — as close to a true pick'em as you'll find.

Both goaltenders have been elite. Ilya Sorokin has registered +31.4 GSAx over 55 games (0.906 SV%), while Igor Shesterkin has compiled +18.8 GSAx over 51 games (0.912 SV%). That gap in volume reflects the Islanders' defense-first structure; both shops have effectively walled the crease.

The teams are functionally tied at 5v5: the Islanders hold 47.7% xG and 49.0% Corsi against New York's 47.5% xG and 48.6% Corsi. (These are 2025-26 rates; the 2026-27 sample isn't live yet.) The Rangers edge the Islanders slightly in PDO (1.009 vs 0.992), suggesting some of their tight margin is luck rather than repeatable shot quality.

On the offensive side, Anders Lee anchors the Islanders' attack: he's posted 9G 20A with 1.20 xG/60 and 2 high-danger goals, a 6.4% shooting rate that's sustainable. Bo Horvat provides secondary punch: 18G 10A with 0.87 xG/60 and 3 high-danger goals, a 12.8% shooting rate that suggests offensive finish above underlying quality.

The Rangers counter with younger upside. Adam Sykora's 0.91 xG/60 sits well ahead of his 3G 1A, but his 20.0% shooting rate signals unsustainable pace; regression is the story there. Gabe Perreault operates at a steadier 0.79 xG/60 with 8G 11A and 2 high-danger goals — his 13.1% shooting rate places him closer to true talent level.

The xG and Corsi numbers are split-the-difference close — basically a coin flip at even strength. What will separate these teams is goaltending consistency and whether the Rangers' hot shooting (reflected in that 1.009 PDO) holds or regresses. The Islanders' structural discipline suggests they'll keep the game tight; the Rangers' ceiling depends on Shesterkin matching Sorokin's night and the depth scoring (Sykora especially) staying efficient.

This is a matchup where the underlying metrics offer no clear advantage. Lean on goaltending and hot-hand momentum.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

NYR 52%

52%

NYR

Model favorite

48%

52%

NYI50NYR

NYR by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score NYI 3.1–3.3 NYR; 16% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

NYI← edge

edge →NYR

47.7%47.5%

49.0%48.6%

3.132.87

3.433.18

2.792.87

2.883.04

0.9921.009

NYI holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.992 vs 1.009) says NYR has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 1

NYI

0-1-0

-1 GD · 2d rest

NYR

0-1-0

-1 GD · 1d rest

0.992

NYI PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.009

NYR PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

STRENGTHNYI

Ilya Sorokin has been a season-long wall

Ilya Sorokin: +31.4 GSAx over 55 games (0.906 SV%).

STRENGTHNYR

Igor Shesterkin has been a season-long wall

Igor Shesterkin: +18.8 GSAx over 51 games (0.912 SV%).

WARNINGNYR

D. Garand on a back-to-back

D. Garand projects to start on 1 day of rest — watch for a backup start or tired legs.

Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.

TACTICALNYR

Shutdown Assignment: Rangers

Key matchup: Neutralize Anders Lee (9G, 1.20 xG/60, 2 HD goals)

Things to watch

D. Garand is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

NYI

Expected in goal

V. Vanecek

2 days rest.909 last start

Backup Ilya Sorokin · +31.4 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

NYR

Expected in goal

D. Garand

back-to-back.903 last start

Backup Igor Shesterkin · +18.8 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

NYI

Anders Lee9G 20A

1.20 xG/60 · 2 HD · 6.4% sh

Bo Horvat18G 10A

0.87 xG/60 · 3 HD · 12.8% sh

NYR

Adam Sykora3G 1A

0.91 xG/60 · 0 HD · 20.0% sh

Gabe Perreault8G 11A

0.79 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.1% sh

Keep going

Where to next

Back to the front page