A. Kolosov couldn't make the stop
A. Kolosov allowed 4 on 18 shots (0.778) — 2.13 goals worse than expected.
Reassess the crease rotation before the next start.

Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The shots and grades below describe this game only: nothing here counts toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.
Boston beat Philadelphia 5-1. The Bruins scored four times in the third period after the teams traded goals in the first. Michael Eyssimont scored twice — opening and closing the game — and Boston's power play was the deciding factor.
Eyssimont struck first at 13:31 of the first, assisted by F. Brunet and T. Jeannot. J. Gaucher tied it 1-1 before the period ended. The second was quiet, and then the Bruins took over. M. Geekie scored on the power play 5:19 into the third, assisted by D. Pastrnak and H. Lindholm, to make it 1-2. B. Halonen followed less than two minutes later with help from F. Brunet and B. Gaunce, pushing it to 1-3. E. Lindholm added a fourth at 14:49, assisted by N. Zadorov and P. Zacha. Eyssimont's snap shot from the high slot at 18:47, assisted by D. Locmelis, closed it at 1-5.
The goaltending split was decisive. J. Swayman stopped 20 on 21 shots for Boston. A. Kolosov allowed four on 18 shots for Philadelphia, then D. Vladar came in for cleanup and allowed one on seven.
Now the numbers explain the divergence. Boston won 5-1 while generating expected goals of only 2.60 — meaning the Bruins scored 2.40 goals more than their underlying play should have produced. Philadelphia generated 2.22 expected goals but scored only 1, an underperformance of 1.22 goals. This variance, the Bruins overperforming while the Flyers underperformed, is what turned a close game into a rout.
The teams split high-danger chances 2-0 in Boston's favor, but the real separation came off the rush. Boston converted four goals on 20 rush attempts, an elite efficiency rate. Special teams sealed it: Boston's power play scored 1 of 2, beating the league rate of roughly 21%, while Philadelphia went scoreless on its only power play attempt.
Bruins pull away from the Flyers
The Bruins earned this one.
The board read PHI 1, BOS 5. The chances read PHI 2.2, BOS 2.6.
The Bruins scored 2.4 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.
High-danger looks: PHI 0 of 0, BOS 0 of 2.
Bruins pull away from the Flyers
A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.
Read the full breakdownscore reads PHI–BOS
BOS went 4-for-15 from medium danger on 1.74 expected goals — 2.3 above expected.
PHI finished -1.2 against expected, BOS +2.4.
Wrist shots carried the volume: PHI went 1-for-18, BOS 1-for-20. BOS scored 4 of theirs off the rush.
Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.
The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →
A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5
A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5
A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5
PHI Created 2.22 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 0 high-danger shots (0.00 xG) and 25 rush shots (1.79 xG).
BOS Created 2.60 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 2 high-danger shots (0.42 xG) and 20 rush shots (1.53 xG).
PHI Allowed 2.60 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 2 high-danger shots (0.42 xG) and 20 rush shots (1.53 xG).
BOS Allowed 2.22 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 0 high-danger shots (0.00 xG) and 25 rush shots (1.79 xG).
PHI Rush shots 25–20, rush xG 1.79–1.53 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
BOS Rush shots 20–25, rush xG 1.53–1.79 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
PHI 0-for-1 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.34 PP xG.
BOS 1-for-2 on the power play (50%; league ≈21%) with 0.29 PP xG.
PHI -2.40 goals saved above expected on 25 shots against.
BOS +1.22 goals saved above expected on 21 shots against.
PHI Took 3 penalties for 6 PIM vs 2 for 4 on the other side.
BOS Took 2 penalties for 4 PIM vs 3 for 6 on the other side.
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
PHI Finishing -1.22 goals vs xG plus -2.40 GSAx of save luck = -3.62 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
BOS Finishing +2.40 goals vs xG plus +1.22 GSAx of save luck = +3.62 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
A. Kolosov allowed 4 on 18 shots (0.778) — 2.13 goals worse than expected.
Reassess the crease rotation before the next start.
Gave up 20 rush shots worth 1.53 xG (4 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
4 goals on 20 rush shots worth 1.53 xG.
Scored 5 on 2.60 xG — +2.40 above expected. Shooting luck like that regresses.
Gave up 25 rush shots worth 1.79 xG (1 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
1 goals on 25 rush shots worth 1.79 xG.
Each club shoots toward its own end — PHI left, BOS right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.
Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The rates below are last season's; this exhibition will not count toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.
The model projects a 3.2-3.0 Flyers win with Philadelphia at 53%. That is not separation — it's a pick'em.
Philadelphia's advantage lies in shot quality: 52.1% 5v5 xG versus Boston's 46.7%. Possession metrics narrow the gap. The Flyers' 47.6% Corsi trails the Bruins' 49.0%, suggesting Boston stays competitive in actual play despite the quality deficit. Boston's PDO of 1.022 runs hot and should cool; Philadelphia's 1.008 is sustainable.
Jeremy Swayman explains Boston's competitiveness. He's +23.5 GSAx over 55 games at 0.908 SV% — far enough above average to absorb a skill shortfall. J. Woll works a back-to-back; either a backup gets the call or he plays through fatigue. Either shift affects the balance.
Owen Tippett (19G, 18A, 0.88 xG/60, 2 HD goals, 12.1% shooting) and Christian Dvorak (12G, 21A, 0.81 xG/60, 3 HD goals, 11.2% shooting) power Philadelphia's offence. Dvorak is flagged as a defensive liability. Boston should hunt him in transition.
Viktor Arvidsson leads Boston's counter: 18G, 24A, 1.04 xG/60, 2 HD goals, 13.0% shooting. That shooting percentage is high enough to read as genuine skill rather than variance. Tanner Jeannot (6G, 14A, 0.75 xG/60, 2 HD goals, 8.3% shooting) fills the secondary. Elias Lindholm marks Boston's defensive seam.
Philadelphia's xG edge is real but not overwhelming. Boston has the goaltending to keep this tight. The model's 53% is right: you cannot separate these teams.
Season rates in this preview are from 2025-26 — this season's sample isn't live yet.
PHI by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score PHI 3.2–3.0 BOS; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
PHI holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.008 vs 1.022) says BOS has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Jeremy Swayman: +23.5 GSAx over 55 games (0.908 SV%).
J. Woll projects to start on 1 day of rest — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.
Key matchup: Neutralize Owen Tippett (19G, 0.88 xG/60, 2 HD goals)
Key matchup: Neutralize Owen Tippett (19G, 0.88 xG/60, 2 HD goals)
Key matchup: Neutralize Viktor Arvidsson (18G, 1.04 xG/60, 2 HD goals)
Key matchup: Neutralize Viktor Arvidsson (18G, 1.04 xG/60, 2 HD goals)
No completed game on file for this club yet.
No completed game on file for this club yet.
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.