Motion-blurred skater in a gold and black sweater
Breakdown · PHI at BOS · Preseason

Bruins pull away from the Flyers

The verdict · earned

The Bruins earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

PHI 1 · BOS 5
Preseason · exhibition

Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The shots and grades below describe this game only: nothing here counts toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.

◆ By the ModelSep 22, 9:48 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Boston beat Philadelphia 5-1. The Bruins scored four times in the third period after the teams traded goals in the first. Michael Eyssimont scored twice — opening and closing the game — and Boston's power play was the deciding factor.

Eyssimont struck first at 13:31 of the first, assisted by F. Brunet and T. Jeannot. J. Gaucher tied it 1-1 before the period ended. The second was quiet, and then the Bruins took over. M. Geekie scored on the power play 5:19 into the third, assisted by D. Pastrnak and H. Lindholm, to make it 1-2. B. Halonen followed less than two minutes later with help from F. Brunet and B. Gaunce, pushing it to 1-3. E. Lindholm added a fourth at 14:49, assisted by N. Zadorov and P. Zacha. Eyssimont's snap shot from the high slot at 18:47, assisted by D. Locmelis, closed it at 1-5.

The goaltending split was decisive. J. Swayman stopped 20 on 21 shots for Boston. A. Kolosov allowed four on 18 shots for Philadelphia, then D. Vladar came in for cleanup and allowed one on seven.

Now the numbers explain the divergence. Boston won 5-1 while generating expected goals of only 2.60 — meaning the Bruins scored 2.40 goals more than their underlying play should have produced. Philadelphia generated 2.22 expected goals but scored only 1, an underperformance of 1.22 goals. This variance, the Bruins overperforming while the Flyers underperformed, is what turned a close game into a rout.

The teams split high-danger chances 2-0 in Boston's favor, but the real separation came off the rush. Boston converted four goals on 20 rush attempts, an elite efficiency rate. Special teams sealed it: Boston's power play scored 1 of 2, beating the league rate of roughly 21%, while Philadelphia went scoreless on its only power play attempt.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Preseason · Sep 22
PHI
1
BOS
5

Bruins pull away from the Flyers

Chances 2.2 – 2.6Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Bruins earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
PHI
2.22
BOS
2.60
46% of the chances54%

The board read PHI 1, BOS 5. The chances read PHI 2.2, BOS 2.6.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
BOS
+2.4
goals above expected
BOS2.60 expected · 5 scored
Expected
Scored
PHI2.22 expected · 1 scored
Expected
Scored

The Bruins scored 2.4 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 13:31BOSM. Eyssimont0–1
  2. P1 18:06PHIJ. Gaucher1–1
  3. P3 05:19BOSM. GeekiePP1–2
  4. P3 07:43BOSB. Halonen1–3
  5. P3 14:49BOSE. Lindholm1–4
  6. P3 18:47BOSM. Eyssimont1–5
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
PHI
33 shots
1
Final
70 shots
BOS
37 shots
5
PHI attackBOS attack
PHI BOS Goal
33
shots · 1 in
37
shots · 5 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
PHIBOS
0 / 0
0.00 xG
High danger
0 / 2
0.42 xG
1 / 15
1.71 xG
Medium
4 / 15
1.74 xG
0 / 28
0.52 xG
Low
1 / 42
0.44 xG

High-danger looks: PHI 0 of 0, BOS 0 of 2.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A
D. Vladar
+1.6
PHI · 6/7
B+
J. Swayman
+1.2
BOS · 20/21
+1 more on the full breakdown
Report card
PHIBOS
OffenseC-C
DefenseCB-
TransitionB-C-
Special teamsD-A+
GoaltendingFB+
DisciplineC-B-
LuckFA+
Seven dimensions, A+ to F · basis on the breakdown
Why it went the way it went
Why BOS won
  1. 01Dangerous off the rush
  2. 02J. Swayman tilted the crease
  3. 03Power play cashed in
Why PHI lost
  1. 01A. Kolosov couldn't make the stop
  2. 02Rush defense leaked all night
  3. 03Cold finishing night
Our storyline model · reasoning on the breakdown
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Bruins pull away from the Flyers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 10 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 10–9
  1. 13:31BOSM. Eyssimont(F. Brunet, T. Jeannot)0–1
  2. 18:06PHIJ. Gaucher(J. Luchanko, N. Seeler)1–1
2ndshots 8–7no goals
    3rdshots 3–9
    1. 05:19BOSM. Geekiepower play(D. Pastrnak, H. Lindholm)1–2
    2. 07:43BOSB. Halonen(F. Brunet, B. Gaunce)1–3
    3. 14:49BOSE. Lindholm(N. Zadorov, P. Zacha)1–4
    4. 18:47BOSM. Eyssimont(D. Locmelis)1–5

    score reads PHI–BOS

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    2.60
    BOS chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    +2.4
    Finishing
    Goals above what those chances were worth
    1.062
    BOS puck luck
    Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
    57.8%
    Shot attempts
    Over half — they had the puck more
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    2.22Expected goals2.60
    BOS 54% of the chance quality
    21Shots on goal25
    0High-danger chances2
    43All attempts (Corsi)59
    Adjusted for score: PHI 44% · BOS 56%
    Faceoffs · BOS won67%off56%neu64%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    PHI0 / 0 · 0.00 xG
    BOS0 / 2 · 0.42 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    PHI1 / 15 · 1.71 xG
    BOS4 / 15 · 1.74 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    PHI0 / 28 · 0.52 xG
    BOS1 / 42 · 0.44 xG

    BOS went 4-for-15 from medium danger on 1.74 expected goals — 2.3 above expected.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    PHI
    1 G · 2.22 xG · -1.2
    BOS
    5 G · 2.60 xG · +2.4
    0123456

    PHI finished -1.2 against expected, BOS +2.4.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    PHI
    WRIST1/18
    SNAP0/3
    SLAP0/5
    TIP IN0/3
    BACKHAND0/3
    WRAP AROUND0/1
    OTHER0/10
    BOS
    WRIST1/20
    SNAP2/11
    SLAP0/2
    TIP IN2/3
    BACKHAND0/1
    WRAP AROUND0/0
    OTHER0/22
    PHI
    BOS
    Off the rush
    1 G on 25
    1.79 xG
    4 G on 20
    1.53 xG
    Off rebounds
    0 G on 3
    0.34 xG
    1 G on 4
    0.34 xG

    Wrist shots carried the volume: PHI went 1-for-18, BOS 1-for-20. BOS scored 4 of theirs off the rush.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    A. Kolosov
    PHI · 14/18 · .778
    -1.4
    saved above expected
    D-
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger0/20.4+0.4
    Medium4/151.7-2.3
    Low1/420.4-0.6

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    D. Vladar
    PHI · 6/7 · .857
    +1.6
    saved above expected
    A
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger0/20.4+0.4
    Medium4/151.7-2.3
    Low1/420.4-0.6

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    J. Swayman
    BOS · 20/21 · .952
    +1.2
    saved above expected
    B+
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    Medium1/151.7+0.7
    Low0/280.5+0.5

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    Graded against a league-average game

    Report card

    Seven dimensions · A+ to F
    DimensionPHIBOS
    Offense
    ▸Basis

    PHI Created 2.22 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 0 high-danger shots (0.00 xG) and 25 rush shots (1.79 xG).

    BOS Created 2.60 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 2 high-danger shots (0.42 xG) and 20 rush shots (1.53 xG).

    C-
    70
    C
    75
    Defense
    ▸Basis

    PHI Allowed 2.60 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 2 high-danger shots (0.42 xG) and 20 rush shots (1.53 xG).

    BOS Allowed 2.22 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 0 high-danger shots (0.00 xG) and 25 rush shots (1.79 xG).

    C
    75
    B-
    80
    Transition
    ▸Basis

    PHI Rush shots 25–20, rush xG 1.79–1.53 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

    BOS Rush shots 20–25, rush xG 1.53–1.79 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

    B-
    80
    C-
    70
    Special teams
    ▸Basis

    PHI 0-for-1 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.34 PP xG.

    BOS 1-for-2 on the power play (50%; league ≈21%) with 0.29 PP xG.

    D-
    62
    A+
    100
    Goaltending
    ▸Basis

    PHI -2.40 goals saved above expected on 25 shots against.

    BOS +1.22 goals saved above expected on 21 shots against.

    F
    51
    B+
    87
    Discipline
    ▸Basis

    PHI Took 3 penalties for 6 PIM vs 2 for 4 on the other side.

    BOS Took 2 penalties for 4 PIM vs 3 for 6 on the other side.

    C-
    70
    B-
    80
    Luck

    Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral

    ▸Basis

    PHI Finishing -1.22 goals vs xG plus -2.40 GSAx of save luck = -3.62 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

    BOS Finishing +2.40 goals vs xG plus +1.22 GSAx of save luck = +3.62 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

    F
    46
    A+
    100
    Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
    What the model flagged
    WARNINGPHI

    A. Kolosov couldn't make the stop

    A. Kolosov allowed 4 on 18 shots (0.778) — 2.13 goals worse than expected.

    Reassess the crease rotation before the next start.

    WARNINGPHI

    Rush defense leaked all night

    Gave up 20 rush shots worth 1.53 xG (4 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

    Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

    STRENGTHBOS

    Dangerous off the rush

    4 goals on 20 rush shots worth 1.53 xG.

    LUCKBOS

    Ran hot in front of the net

    Scored 5 on 2.60 xG — +2.40 above expected. Shooting luck like that regresses.

    WARNINGBOS

    Rush defense leaked all night

    Gave up 25 rush shots worth 1.79 xG (1 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

    Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

    STRENGTHPHI

    Dangerous off the rush

    1 goals on 25 rush shots worth 1.79 xG.

    70 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    PHI
    33 shots
    1
    Final
    70 shots
    BOS
    37 shots
    5
    PHI attackBOS attack
    PHI BOS Goal

    Each club shoots toward its own end — PHI left, BOS right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    F. Brunet
    #42 · D · BOS
    0 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 16:18 on ice · +2
    M. Eyssimont
    #81 · C · BOS
    2 G · 0 A · 2 SOG · 12:55 on ice · +2
    N. Zadorov
    #91 · D · BOS
    0 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 22:59 on ice · +1
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    What the model said beforehand

    Before the game

    Written Tue, Sep 22
    Open the pre-game read
    Written from the numbers

    The read

    Edited for clarity
    Preseason · exhibition

    Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The rates below are last season's; this exhibition will not count toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.

    ◆ By the ModelSep 21, 11:42 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

    The model projects a 3.2-3.0 Flyers win with Philadelphia at 53%. That is not separation — it's a pick'em.

    Philadelphia's advantage lies in shot quality: 52.1% 5v5 xG versus Boston's 46.7%. Possession metrics narrow the gap. The Flyers' 47.6% Corsi trails the Bruins' 49.0%, suggesting Boston stays competitive in actual play despite the quality deficit. Boston's PDO of 1.022 runs hot and should cool; Philadelphia's 1.008 is sustainable.

    Jeremy Swayman explains Boston's competitiveness. He's +23.5 GSAx over 55 games at 0.908 SV% — far enough above average to absorb a skill shortfall. J. Woll works a back-to-back; either a backup gets the call or he plays through fatigue. Either shift affects the balance.

    Owen Tippett (19G, 18A, 0.88 xG/60, 2 HD goals, 12.1% shooting) and Christian Dvorak (12G, 21A, 0.81 xG/60, 3 HD goals, 11.2% shooting) power Philadelphia's offence. Dvorak is flagged as a defensive liability. Boston should hunt him in transition.

    Viktor Arvidsson leads Boston's counter: 18G, 24A, 1.04 xG/60, 2 HD goals, 13.0% shooting. That shooting percentage is high enough to read as genuine skill rather than variance. Tanner Jeannot (6G, 14A, 0.75 xG/60, 2 HD goals, 8.3% shooting) fills the secondary. Elias Lindholm marks Boston's defensive seam.

    Philadelphia's xG edge is real but not overwhelming. Boston has the goaltending to keep this tight. The model's 53% is right: you cannot separate these teams.

    Season rates in this preview are from 2025-26 — this season's sample isn't live yet.

    What the model said beforehand

    The model's lean

    PHI 53%
    53%
    PHI
    Model favorite
    53%
    47%
    PHI50BOS

    PHI by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score PHI 3.2–3.0 BOS; 16% chance it's tied after 60.

    Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
    Season rates · 5v5

    Tale of the tape

    NHL stats API · our xG
    PHI← edge
    edge →BOS
    52.1%46.7%
    47.6%49.0%
    3.052.97
    2.803.39
    2.933.27
    2.913.01
    1.0081.022

    PHI holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.008 vs 1.022) says BOS has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

    Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
    Form · Last 1
    PHI
    0-1-0
    -3 GD · 1d rest
    BOS
    1-0-0
    +1 GD · 2d rest
    1.008
    PHI PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    1.022
    BOS PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    What decides it

    Keys to the game

    STRENGTHBOS

    Jeremy Swayman has been a season-long wall

    Jeremy Swayman: +23.5 GSAx over 55 games (0.908 SV%).

    WARNINGPHI

    J. Woll on a back-to-back

    J. Woll projects to start on 1 day of rest — watch for a backup start or tired legs.

    Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.

    TACTICALBOS

    Shutdown Assignment: Bruins

    Key matchup: Neutralize Owen Tippett (19G, 0.88 xG/60, 2 HD goals)

    Key matchup: Neutralize Owen Tippett (19G, 0.88 xG/60, 2 HD goals)

    TACTICALPHI

    Shutdown Assignment: Flyers

    Key matchup: Neutralize Viktor Arvidsson (18G, 1.04 xG/60, 2 HD goals)

    Key matchup: Neutralize Viktor Arvidsson (18G, 1.04 xG/60, 2 HD goals)

    Where the edges live
    • The Flyers own the underlying play — 52.1% 5v5 xG vs 46.7%.
    Regression watch
    • The Bruins' PDO is 1.022 — running hot, expect some regression.
    Things to watch
    • The Flyers own the underlying play — 52.1% 5v5 xG vs 46.7%.
    • J. Woll is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
    • The Bruins' PDO is 1.022 — running hot, expect some regression.
    Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

    Lineups

    NHL box score
    PHI
    Expected in goal
    J. Woll
    back-to-back.842 last start
    Backup Dan Vladar · +6.2 GSAx this season
    Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    BOS
    Expected in goal
    M. DiPietro
    2 days rest.938 last start
    Backup Jeremy Swayman · +23.5 GSAx this season

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

    Computed danger · scouting

    Players to watch

    NHL stats API · our xG
    PHI
    Owen Tippett19G 18A
    0.88 xG/60 · 2 HD · 12.1% sh
    Christian Dvorak12G 21A
    0.81 xG/60 · 3 HD · 11.2% sh
    BOS
    Viktor Arvidsson18G 24A
    1.04 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.0% sh
    Tanner Jeannot6G 14A
    0.75 xG/60 · 2 HD · 8.3% sh
    Keep going

    Where to next