STRENGTHVGK
C. Hart stole it
C. Hart stopped 28 of 29 (0.966) — +2.89 goals saved above expected in a 1-goal game.
The verdict · stolen
The Golden Knights stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 2.22–3.89 and won anyway.
VGK 2 · SJS 1
Preseason · exhibition
Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The shots and grades below describe this game only: nothing here counts toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.
◆ By the ModelSep 28, 3:43 PMxG: xgboost-0.765Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
Vegas stole one in the shootout, winning 2-1 despite getting thoroughly outworked. San Jose held 64% of expected goals—this was a heist built on goaltending.
The Sharks controlled the game from start to finish. They held 56% of shot attempts (29–23) and built 3.89 expected goals to Vegas's 2.22. On the surface, San Jose should have won. Instead, C. Hart stopped what the Sharks' offense threw at him.
Hart finished 28 of 29, but the real story is the quality. Vegas's goalie gave up 2.89 more goals than his expected goals suggested. He was perfect on high-danger chances—all 7 of them. San Jose's Y. Askarov played well (22 of 23, 0.957 save percentage), but he faced a team that generated far fewer meaningful looks. San Jose wasted its possession. They went 0 for 7 on high-danger chances. Finishing droughts don't repeat; it was variance, not skill.
M. Misa opened the scoring on the power play at 04:18 of the third, a 14% chance off the rush that beat Hart. Vegas answered at 08:22 when A. Holtz buried another 14% shot from the perimeter, and that tied the game. Nothing separated them after that, so the shootout decided it—a strip-and-chance game where neither goalie folded.
The Sharks dominated transition, especially on the rush. They threw 30 shot attempts from those situations and generated 3.61 expected goals against Vegas in transition alone. That's the specific weakness that cost them: Vegas's gap control broke repeatedly, and Hart had to clean it up every time. It worked once. It rarely works twice.
San Jose underperformed their workload by nearly 3 full goals. Vegas won a game they didn't deserve to win, and the only reason they're taking this one home is Hart.
The goals
- SJS 0–1, 04:18 of the third on the power play. M. Misa, wrist shot from 9 feet, a 14% chance by the model (off the rush), past C. Hart. Assists: I. Stenberg, D. Orlov. Win probability moved 27 points.
- VGK 1–1, 08:22 of the third. A. Holtz, wrist shot from 26 feet, a 14% chance by the model (off the rush), past Y. Askarov. Assists: T. Laczynski, A. Ginning. Win probability moved 30 points.
What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.