Motion-blurred skater in a Columbus Blue Jackets sweater

Breakdown · PIT at CBJ · Preseason

Blue Jackets shut out the Penguins, 4-0

FinalThu, Sep 24

PITPittsburgh Penguins0 CBJColumbus Blue Jackets4

The verdict · earned

The Blue Jackets earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

PIT 0 · CBJ 4

Preseason · exhibition

Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The shots and grades below describe this game only: nothing here counts toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.

◆ By the ModelSep 26, 1:12 PMxG: xgboost-0.765Raw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Blue Jackets rolled past the Penguins 4-0 in a game the underlying numbers called close to even — expected goals split 2.90–2.45, a slight edge to the Blue Jackets.

The numbers behind the result. The Blue Jackets held 53% of shot attempts (17–15 on goal). Expected goals finished 2.90–2.45 (54–46% split), and high-danger chances went 6–4.

Variance watch. The Blue Jackets overperformed their xG by 1.10 goals; the Penguins underperformed theirs by 2.45.

Turning point. Kirill Marchenko's wrist shot from the point (P3, 17:28).

The goals

CBJ 0–1, 11:48 of the first. Z. Werenski, wrist shot from 58 feet, a 1% chance by the model, past S. Murashov. Assists: C. Elick, D. Voronkov. Win probability moved 16 points.
CBJ 0–2, 14:42 of the second. V. Nichushkin, backhander from 9 feet, a 19% chance by the model (off the rush), past S. Murashov. Assists: D. Voronkov. 5 seconds after a PIT giveaway by I. Solovyov. Win probability moved 14 points.
CBJ 0–3, 19:45 of the second. D. Heinen, wrist shot from 4 feet, a 40% chance by the model (a rebound), past S. Murashov. Assists: C. Coyle. 2 seconds after a CBJ shot by D. Heinen. Win probability moved 6 points.
CBJ 0–4, 17:28 of the third into an empty net. K. Marchenko, wrist shot from 90 feet, a 51% chance by the model. Assists: C. Sillinger, K. Johnson.

Goaltending

S. Murashov (PIT): 13/16 saves, 0.812 SV%
C. Talbot (CBJ): 15/15 saves, 1.000 SV% (+2.45 vs expected)

Storylines

C. Talbot (CBJ) stopped 2.4 goals above expected.
CBJ generated far more dangerous chances — 0.072 xG/shot vs 0.054. Quality over quantity.
CBJ was clinical in the high-danger zone — 3/6 on HD chances (50%).
CBJ created 4 rebound opportunities (1 converted) — crashing the net effectively.
PIT underperformed xG by 2.5 — wasted quality chances.
C. Talbot (CBJ) saved 2.5 goals above expected — stole the show.

Final: PIT 0 – CBJ 4

Data: NHL play-by-play and shift charts, Backcheck xG model

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Preseason · Sep 24

PIT

CBJ

Blue Jackets shut out the Penguins, 4-0

Chances 2.5 – 2.9Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Blue Jackets earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value

PIT

2.45

CBJ

2.90

46% of the chances54%

The board read PIT 0, CBJ 4. The chances read PIT 2.5, CBJ 2.9.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

CBJ

+1.1

goals above expected

CBJ2.90 expected · 4 scored

Expected

Scored

PIT2.45 expected · 0 scored

Expected

Scored

The Penguins left 2.5 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

The swing

+16

win-probability points

54% → 69% for CBJ

CBJ 100%the game, start to finish

PIT 100%P1 · P2 · P3

CBJP1 11:48

Z. Werenski makes it 0–1.

In-game win model · fitted on 5,248 games

Every goal, in order

P1 11:48CBJZ. Werenski1%0–1
P2 14:42CBJV. Nichushkin19%0–2
P2 19:45CBJD. Heinen41%0–3
P3 17:28CBJK. MarchenkoEN51%0–4

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

PIT

32 shots

Final

61 shots

CBJ

29 shots

PIT CBJ GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 0 in

shots · 4 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

PITCBJ

0 / 4

0.88 xG

High danger

3 / 6

1.70 xG

0 / 14

1.36 xG

Medium

0 / 10

0.93 xG

0 / 27

0.20 xG

Low

1 / 24

0.27 xG

The Penguins went 0 for 4 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

C. Talbot

+2.5

CBJ · 15/15 · 60:00

Best save · a 26% chance, snap from 6 ft · P3 16:41

S. Murashov

−0.6

PIT · 13/16 · 59:00

Best save · a 22% chance, snap from 11 ft · P2 19:43

Best skater on the ice

A+

CBJ

D. Heinen

L · impact 1.37

13:47

Ice time

1–0

G – A

0.71

Own xG

65%

xG share

Impact · top 4

D. Heinen1.4A+

V. Nichushkin1.2A+

K. Marchenko1.1A+

D. Voronkov1.1A

Report card

PITCBJ

OffenseCB

DefenseD+C

TransitionC+C-

Special teamsCC

GoaltendingCA+

DisciplineCC

LuckFA+

Seven dimensions, A+ to F · basis on the breakdown

Why it went the way it went

Why CBJ won

01C. Talbot stole it
02Clinical in the slot
03Dangerous off the rush

Why PIT lost

01Cold finishing night
02PDO ran cold
03Rush defense leaked all night

Our storyline model · reasoning on the breakdown

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Blue Jackets shut out the Penguins, 4-0

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 12 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 2–5

11:48CBJZ. Werenski(C. Elick, D. Voronkov)0–1
Wrist shot from 58 feet, a 1% chance, a shot that rarely goes in, past S. Murashov. Win probability moved 16 points.On the ice: E. Gudbranson, M. Wood, C. White, L. Tuch, O. Keskinen · against D. Gustafsson, A. Hayes, O. Pickering, A. Calvert, H. Brunicke

2ndshots 5–5

14:42CBJV. Nichushkin(D. Voronkov)0–2
Backhander from 9 feet, a 19% chance (off the rush), past S. Murashov. 5s after a PIT giveaway by I. Solovyov. Win probability moved 14 points.On the ice: M. Wood, L. Tuch, C. Ceulemans, G. Richard, O. Keskinen · against D. Gustafsson, A. Hayes, O. Pickering, A. Calvert, H. Brunicke
19:45CBJD. Heinen(C. Coyle)0–3
Wrist shot from 4 feet, a 41% chance (a rebound), past S. Murashov. 2s after a CBJ shot by D. Heinen. Win probability moved 6 points.On the ice: E. Gudbranson, C. White, K. Marchenko, K. Johnson, C. Sillinger · against F. Hallander, C. Dewar, E. Soderblom, I. Solovyov, J. Livanavage

3rdshots 8–7

17:28CBJK. Marchenkoempty net(C. Sillinger, K. Johnson)0–4
Wrist shot from 90 feet, a 51% chance.On the ice: C. Coyle, E. Gudbranson, D. Heinen, C. White, J. Williams · against D. Gustafsson, O. Pickering, A. Calvert, H. Brunicke, T. Howe

score reads PIT–CBJ

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

2.90

CBJ chances

Goals their shots were worth

+1.1

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.100

CBJ puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

47.1%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.45Expected goals2.90

CBJ 54% of the chance quality

15Shots on goal17

4High-danger chances6

45All attempts (Corsi)40

Adjusted for score: PIT 58% · CBJ 42%

Faceoffs · CBJ won46%off60%neu83%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

PIT0 / 4 · 0.88 xG

CBJ3 / 6 · 1.70 xG

Medium dangermid-range

PIT0 / 14 · 1.36 xG

CBJ0 / 10 · 0.93 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

PIT0 / 27 · 0.20 xG

CBJ1 / 24 · 0.27 xG

PIT went 0-for-14 from medium danger on 1.36 expected goals — 1.4 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

PIT

0 G · 2.45 xG · -2.5

CBJ

4 G · 2.90 xG · +1.1

012345

PIT finished -2.5 against expected, CBJ +1.1.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

PIT

SNAP0/9

WRIST0/8

TIP IN0/10

SLAP0/3

BACKHAND0/0

WRAP AROUND0/1

DEFLECTED0/1

OTHER0/13

CBJ

SNAP0/11

WRIST3/7

TIP IN0/4

SLAP0/2

BACKHAND1/5

WRAP AROUND0/0

DEFLECTED0/0

OTHER0/11

PIT

CBJ

Off the rush

0 G on 18

1.92 xG

1 G on 17

1.60 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 2

0.34 xG

1 G on 4

0.60 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: PIT went 0-for-9, CBJ 0-for-11.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

S. Murashov

PIT · 13/16 · .812

started · 59:00 · loss

-0.6

saved above expected

the night

Attempts faced: 28
Avg chance faced: 8.5%
Stopped vs expected: 0.893 vs 0.915
Rebounds allowed: 4 · 1 scored on

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger2/51.2-0.8

Medium0/100.9+0.9

Low1/130.3-0.7

Tips & deflections0/40.2+0.2

The save

22% chance stopped, a snap from 11 ft · P2 19:43

The one to have back

1% chance went in, a wrist from 58 ft · P1 11:48

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

C. Talbot

CBJ · 15/15 · 1.000

started · 60:00 · win

+2.5

saved above expected

the night

Attempts faced: 32
Avg chance faced: 7.6%
Stopped vs expected: 1.000 vs 0.924
Rebounds allowed: 2

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/40.9+0.9

Medium0/141.4+1.4

Low0/140.2+0.2

Shorthanded0/40.8+0.8

Tips & deflections0/110.9+0.9

The save

26% chance stopped, a snap from 6 ft · P3 16:41

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

Every skater who dressed

Who played

Rated on what they produced and how fast

Best skater on the ice by our rating: D. Heinen (CBJ), 13:47 of ice, 1-0, 65% of the expected goals while he was out.

PIT18 skaters

Skater	TOI	G-A	SOG	ixG	xG%	PD/PT	Impact	/60	Grade
R. McGroartyR	14:45	0-0	3	0.47	73	0/0	0.75	3.05	A
I. SolovyovD	19:44	0-0	0	0.00	79	0/0	0.69	2.09	B
J. LivanavageD	21:54	0-0	1	0.01	68	0/0	0.54	1.47	B
V. KoivunenR	15:31	0-0	1	0.15	61	0/0	0.46	1.76	B
A. HayesR	15:44	0-0	1	0.36	65	1/1	0.40	1.52	C
T. BrozC	15:46	0-0	2	0.31	56	0/0	0.34	1.28	C
F. HallanderC	17:42	0-0	1	0.36	56	0/0	0.34	1.17	C
E. SoderblomL	17:47	0-0	2	0.32	56	0/0	0.34	1.14	C
C. DewarC	17:34	0-0	1	0.17	56	0/0	0.20	0.67	C
R. GravesD	20:47	0-0	1	0.06	32	0/0	-0.09	-0.26	D
C. JonesD	21:32	0-0	0	0.00	41	0/0	-0.13	-0.35	D
B. ZonnonR	12:39	0-0	0	0.00	25	0/0	-0.17	-0.81	D
M. IlyinR	13:13	0-0	1	0.06	9	0/0	-0.18	-0.80	D
A. CalvertC	12:29	0-0	0	0.14	19	0/0	-0.26	-1.24	F
T. HoweL	12:57	0-0	0	0.00	23	0/0	-0.28	-1.32	F
D. GustafssonC	12:45	0-0	0	0.01	19	0/0	-0.32	-1.49	F
O. PickeringD	17:53	0-0	1	0.01	26	0/0	-0.41	-1.38	F
H. BrunickeD	18:18	0-0	0	0.00	24	0/0	-0.48	-1.59	F

CBJ18 skaters

Skater	TOI	G-A	SOG	ixG	xG%	PD/PT	Impact	/60	Grade
D. HeinenL	13:47	1-0	2	0.71	65	0/0	1.37	5.96	A+
V. NichushkinR	16:16	1-0	3	0.74	51	0/0	1.22	4.49	A+
K. MarchenkoR	17:14	1-0	3	0.84	45	0/0	1.11	3.87	A+
D. VoronkovL	15:17	0-2	0	0.00	32	0/0	1.05	4.14	A
C. CoyleC	15:42	0-1	0	0.04	65	0/0	1.03	3.93	A
E. GudbransonD	18:32	0-0	0	0.00	91	0/0	0.98	3.19	A
K. JohnsonC	17:38	0-1	3	0.18	44	0/0	0.69	2.36	A
C. WhiteD	16:31	0-0	1	0.00	74	0/0	0.68	2.45	B
Z. WerenskiD	24:04	1-0	1	0.02	43	0/0	0.70	1.74	B
C. SillingerC	16:41	0-1	0	0.00	43	0/0	0.59	2.12	B
C. ElickD	24:01	0-1	2	0.03	34	0/0	0.53	1.32	B
M. WoodL	10:44	0-0	1	0.12	92	0/0	0.36	2.02	C
L. TuchL	12:29	0-0	0	0.00	92	1/1	0.20	0.96	C
J. WilliamsR	14:35	0-0	0	0.00	65	0/0	0.20	0.84	C
O. KeskinenC	11:26	0-0	0	0.00	92	0/0	0.15	0.79	D
S. MonahanC	16:06	0-0	0	0.20	51	0/0	0.08	0.30	D
G. RichardD	18:18	0-0	0	0.00	46	0/0	0.07	0.21	D
C. CeulemansD	18:39	0-0	1	0.01	27	0/0	-0.26	-0.83	D

xG% = share of expected goals while on the ice · PD/PT = penalties drawn / taken · “in N min” = a per-60 rate far above the raw total. Impact = 0.75 G + 0.7 A1 + 0.55 A2 + 0.075 SOG + 0.05 BLK + 0.15 penalties drawn − 0.15 taken + 0.01 faceoff wins − 0.01 losses + 0.3 individual xG + 0.5 on-ice xG for − 0.5 on-ice xG against. Rating = 65% impact + 35% impact per 60, as a percentile among the skaters in this game.

Scratched, PIT: E. Malkin, S. Crosby, K. Letang, E. Karlsson, B. Rust, R. Rakell and 62 more. Scratched, CBJ: D. Severson, P. Quenneville, C. Soucy, P. Copley, E. Merzlikins, I. Provorov and 40 more. Referees Hayden Verbeek and Peter MacDougall; linesmen Kyle Flemington and CJ Murray.

Graded against a league-average game

Report card

Seven dimensions · A+ to F

DimensionPITCBJ

Offense

▸Basis

PIT Created 2.45 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 4 high-danger shots (0.88 xG) and 18 rush shots (1.92 xG).

CBJ Created 2.90 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 6 high-danger shots (1.70 xG) and 17 rush shots (1.60 xG).

Defense

▸Basis

PIT Allowed 2.90 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 6 high-danger shots (1.70 xG) and 17 rush shots (1.60 xG).

CBJ Allowed 2.45 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 4 high-danger shots (0.88 xG) and 18 rush shots (1.92 xG).

D+

Transition

▸Basis

PIT Rush shots 18–17, rush xG 1.92–1.60 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

CBJ Rush shots 17–18, rush xG 1.60–1.92 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

C+

C-

Special teams

▸Basis

PIT No power-play opportunities to grade.

CBJ No power-play opportunities to grade.

Goaltending

▸Basis

PIT -0.10 goals saved above expected on 16 shots against.

CBJ +2.45 goals saved above expected on 15 shots against.

A+

Discipline

▸Basis

PIT Took 1 penalties for 2 PIM vs 1 for 2 on the other side.

CBJ Took 1 penalties for 2 PIM vs 1 for 2 on the other side.

Luck

Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral

▸Basis

PIT Finishing -2.45 goals vs xG plus -0.10 GSAx of save luck = -2.55 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

CBJ Finishing +1.10 goals vs xG plus +2.45 GSAx of save luck = +3.55 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

A+

100

Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately

What the model flagged

STRENGTHCBJ

C. Talbot stole it

C. Talbot stopped 15 of 15 (1.000) — +2.45 goals saved above expected in a 4-goal game.

LUCKPIT

Cold finishing night

Scored 0 on 2.45 xG — -2.45 vs expected. The looks were there; the finish will come back.

LUCKCBJ

PDO ran hot

Single-game PDO of 1.100 — the bounces went their way tonight.

LUCKPIT

PDO ran cold

Single-game PDO of 0.900 — the bounces went against them tonight.

STRENGTHCBJ

Clinical in the slot

3 goals on 6 high-danger shots (50% conversion on 1.70 xG).

WARNINGPIT

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 17 rush shots worth 1.60 xG (1 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

61 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

PIT

32 shots

Final

61 shots

CBJ

29 shots

PIT CBJ GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — PIT left, CBJ right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

D. Voronkov

#10 · L · CBJ

0 G · 2 A · 0 SOG · 15:17 on ice · +2

Z. Werenski

#8 · D · CBJ

1 G · 0 A · 1 SOG · 24:04 on ice · +1

C. Elick

#57 · D · CBJ

0 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 24:01 on ice · +2

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

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