Breakdown · NJD at NYR · Preseason

Rangers edge the Devils in a shootout

Final / OTThu, Sep 24

NJDNew Jersey Devils3 NYRNew York Rangers4

The verdict · stolen

The Rangers stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.87–3.30 and won anyway.

NJD 3 · NYR 4

Preseason · exhibition

Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The shots and grades below describe this game only: nothing here counts toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.

◆ By the ModelSep 26, 1:08 PMxG: xgboost-0.765Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Will Cuylle converted in the shootout to give New York a 4-3 win—a result the underlying numbers didn't forecast. New Jersey generated the better shot quality, yet the Rangers' transition relentlessness carried the night.

Expected goals split 3.87–3.30 favoring the Devils. Shot attempts ended 23–23, dead even, but the quality disparity was substantial: the Devils generated 0.081 expected goals per shot versus the Rangers' 0.056. Yet the Rangers generated 29 rush attempts to New Jersey's 23, a volume and speed advantage the Devils couldn't contain.

J. Korpisalo saved 20 on 23 and finished plus-0.87 versus expected—a margin that mattered when the workload was less dangerous than it appeared on paper.

G. Perreault orchestrated the offense. He had two assists in 21:39, running the Rangers' pace.

The Devils' power play was lethal: two goals on eight shots. N. Daws, the New Jersey starter, made 20 saves on 23 and turned aside all five high-danger chances he faced. That perfection on the dangerous looks wasn't enough to overcome the Rangers' rush frequency and conversion rate.

W. Cuylle ended it in the shootout, breaking the 3-3 regulation tie.

The goals

NJD 1–0, 08:51 of the first on the power play. S. Noesen, deflection from 8 feet, a 6% chance by the model (a rebound), past J. Korpisalo. Assists: S. Casey, L. Hameenaho. 2 seconds after a NJD shot by S. Casey. Win probability moved 16 points.
NJD 2–0, 12:09 of the second. E. Edwards, snap shot from 39 feet, a 5% chance by the model (off the rush), past J. Korpisalo. Assists: M. Melovsky, B. Steeves. Win probability moved 16 points.
NYR 2–1, 03:10 of the third. W. Cuylle, deflection from 6 feet, a 14% chance by the model (off the rush), past N. Daws. Assists: M. Robertson, G. Perreault. Win probability moved 16 points.
NYR 2–2, 05:21 of the third on the power play. A. Blidh, snap shot from 7 feet, a 16% chance by the model (off the rush), past N. Daws. Assists: G. Gawdin, G. Perreault. Win probability moved 29 points.
NYR 2–3, 10:03 of the third. S. Morrow, backhander from 17 feet, a 7% chance by the model (off the rush), past N. Daws. Assists: W. Cuylle, M. Rempe. Win probability moved 31 points.
NJD 3–3, 18:21 of the third on the power play. A. Lombardi, snap shot from 19 feet, a 23% chance by the model (off the rush), past J. Korpisalo. Assists: J. Boqvist, M. Melovsky. Win probability moved 42 points.

What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · SO · Preseason · Sep 24

NJD

NYR

Rangers edge the Devils in a shootout

Chances 3.9 – 3.3Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Devils deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value

NJD

3.87

NYR

3.30

54% of the chances46%

The board read NJD 3, NYR 4. The chances read NJD 3.9, NYR 3.3.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

NYR

+0.7

goals above expected

NYR3.30 expected · 4 scored

Expected

Scored

NJD3.87 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

The swing

+42

win-probability points

6% → 48% for NJD

NYR 100%the game, start to finish

NJD 100%P1 · P2 · P3

NJDP3 18:21 · PP

A. Lombardi makes it 3–3.

In-game win model · fitted on 5,248 games

Every goal, in order

P1 08:51NJDS. NoesenPP6%1–0
P2 12:09NJDE. Edwards5%2–0
P3 03:10NYRW. Cuylle14%2–1
P3 05:21NYRA. BlidhPP16%2–2
P3 10:03NYRS. Morrow7%2–3
P3 18:21NJDA. LombardiPP23%3–3
SO 00:00NYRW. CuyllePP3–3

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

NJD

41 shots

Final

81 shots

NYR

40 shots

NJD NYR GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

shots · 3 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

NJDNYR

1 / 6

1.48 xG

High danger

0 / 5

1.07 xG

1 / 17

2.02 xG

Medium

3 / 19

1.87 xG

1 / 25

0.37 xG

Low

0 / 35

0.36 xG

High-danger looks: NJD 1 of 6, NYR 0 of 5.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

B+

J. Korpisalo

+0.9

NYR · 20/23 · 64:49

Best save · a 32% chance, snap from 6 ft · P4 04:14

N. Daws

+0.3

NJD · 20/23 · 63:27

Best save · a 23% chance, snap from 9 ft · P2 06:48

Best skater on the ice

A+

NJD

M. Melovsky

C · impact 1.90

16:28

Ice time

0–2

G – A

0.21

Own xG

69%

xG share

Impact · top 4

M. Melovsky1.9A+

W. Cuylle1.9A+

B. Steeves1.2A+

E. Edwards1.4A

Report card

NJDNYR

OffenseA+B+

DefenseD-F

TransitionC+C

Special teamsA+F

GoaltendingC+B

DisciplineCC

LuckC-B-

Seven dimensions, A+ to F · basis on the breakdown

Why it went the way it went

Why NYR won

01Dangerous off the rush
02J. Korpisalo tilted the crease
03G. Perreault led the way

Why NJD lost

01Rush defense leaked all night
02Cold finishing night

Our storyline model · reasoning on the breakdown

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Rangers edge the Devils in a shootout

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 12 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 5–4

08:51NJDS. Noesenpower play(S. Casey, L. Hameenaho)1–0
Deflection from 8 feet, a 6% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (a rebound), past J. Korpisalo. 2s after a NJD shot by S. Casey. Win probability moved 16 points.On the ice: C. White, R. Tufte, V. Kolyachonok, X. Parent, A. Silaev · against J. Veleno, M. Robertson, T. Kartye, M. Rempe, W. Trudeau

2ndshots 7–8

12:09NJDE. Edwards(M. Melovsky, B. Steeves)2–0
Snap shot from 39 feet, a 5% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past J. Korpisalo. Win probability moved 16 points.On the ice: E. Edwards, M. Diotte, L. Hameenaho, M. Melovsky, B. Steeves · against M. Del Gaizo, J. Chmelar, D. Fortescue, C. Beaudoin, L. Greentree

3rdshots 8–8

03:10NYRW. Cuylle(M. Robertson, G. Perreault)2–1
Deflection from 6 feet, a 14% chance (off the rush), past N. Daws. Win probability moved 16 points.On the ice: J. Veleno, M. Del Gaizo, T. Kartye, M. Rempe, D. Fortescue · against V. Kolyachonok, L. Hameenaho, M. Melovsky, B. Steeves, A. Silaev
05:21NYRA. Blidhpower play(G. Gawdin, G. Perreault)2–2
Snap shot from 7 feet, a 16% chance (off the rush), past N. Daws. Win probability moved 29 points.On the ice: M. Robertson, W. Cuylle, W. Trudeau, N. Laba, G. Perreault · against S. Noesen, J. Boqvist, E. Edwards, A. Lombardi, A. Silaev
10:03NYRS. Morrow(W. Cuylle, M. Rempe)2–3
Backhander from 17 feet, a 7% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past N. Daws. Win probability moved 31 points.On the ice: J. Veleno, M. Del Gaizo, T. Kartye, S. Morrow, J. Chmelar · against E. Edwards, L. Hameenaho, M. Melovsky, B. Steeves, A. Silaev
18:21NJDA. Lombardipower play(J. Boqvist, M. Melovsky)3–3
Snap shot from 19 feet, a 23% chance (off the rush), past J. Korpisalo. Win probability moved 42 points.On the ice: C. White, R. Tufte, E. Edwards, M. Diotte, M. McLaughlin · against S. Morrow, J. Chmelar, C. Beaudoin, L. Greentree, A. Smits

OTshots 3–3no goals

00:00NYRW. Cuyllepower play3–3

score reads NJD–NYR

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

3.30

NYR chances

Goals their shots were worth

+0.7

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

0.988

NYR puck luck

About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces

55.1%

Shot attempts

Over half — they had the puck more

Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.87Expected goals3.30

NJD 54% of the chance quality

23Shots on goal23

6High-danger chances5

48All attempts (Corsi)59

Adjusted for score: NJD 43% · NYR 57%

Faceoffs · NYR won62%off48%neu67%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

NJD1 / 6 · 1.48 xG

NYR0 / 5 · 1.07 xG

Medium dangermid-range

NJD1 / 17 · 2.02 xG

NYR3 / 19 · 1.87 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

NJD1 / 25 · 0.37 xG

NYR0 / 35 · 0.36 xG

NYR went 3-for-19 from medium danger on 1.87 expected goals — 1.1 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

NJD

3 G · 3.87 xG · -0.9

NYR

4 G · 3.30 xG · +0.7

012345

NJD finished -0.9 against expected, NYR +0.7.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

NJD

SNAP2/26

TIP IN0/4

BACKHAND0/3

WRIST0/3

DEFLECTED1/2

SLAP0/1

BAT0/1

WRAP AROUND0/1

OTHER0/7

NYR

SNAP1/22

TIP IN0/6

BACKHAND1/6

WRIST0/2

DEFLECTED1/3

SLAP0/1

BAT0/0

WRAP AROUND0/0

OTHER0/19

NJD

NYR

Off the rush

2 G on 23

3.27 xG

3 G on 29

2.75 xG

Off rebounds

1 G on 5

0.46 xG

0 G on 2

0.27 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: NJD went 2-for-26, NYR 1-for-22. NYR scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

N. Daws

NJD · 20/23 · .870

started · 63:27 · OT loss

+0.3

saved above expected

the night

Attempts faced: 40
Avg chance faced: 8.3%
Stopped vs expected: 0.925 vs 0.917
Rebounds allowed: 2

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/51.1+1.1

Medium3/191.9-1.1

Low0/160.4+0.4

Shorthanded1/70.7-0.3

Tips & deflections1/90.6-0.4

The save

23% chance stopped, a snap from 9 ft · P2 06:48

The one to have back

7% chance went in, a backhand from 17 ft · P3 10:03

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Korpisalo

NYR · 20/23 · .870

started · 64:49 · win

+0.9

saved above expected

B+

the night

Attempts faced: 41
Avg chance faced: 9.4%
Stopped vs expected: 0.927 vs 0.906
Rebounds allowed: 5 · 1 scored on

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/61.5+0.5

Medium1/172.0+1.0

Low1/180.4-0.6

Shorthanded2/70.7-1.3

Tips & deflections1/60.5-0.5

The save

32% chance stopped, a snap from 6 ft · P4 04:14

The one to have back

5% chance went in, a snap from 39 ft · P2 12:09

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

Every skater who dressed

Who played

Rated on what they produced and how fast

Best skater on the ice by our rating: M. Melovsky (NJD), 16:28 of ice, 0-2, 69% of the expected goals while he was out.

NJD18 skaters

Skater	TOI	G-A	SOG	ixG	xG%	PD/PT	Impact	/60	Grade
M. MelovskyC	16:28	0-2	1	0.21	69	0/0	1.90	6.92	A+
B. SteevesL	15:33	0-1	1	0.37	66	1/0	1.19	4.59	A+
E. EdwardsD	25:38	1-0	4	0.37	56	0/0	1.38	3.22	A
S. NoesenR	19:29	1-0	2	0.37	47	0/0	1.02	3.14	A
S. CaseyD	11:50	0-1	1	0.03	43	0/0	0.68	3.46	B
A. LombardiC	20:40	1-0	2	0.66	46	0/1	0.84	2.43	B
L. HameenahoR	17:56	0-1	1	0.26	51	0/0	0.76	2.56	B
C. WhiteC	14:43	0-0	2	0.55	63	0/0	0.57	2.34	B
J. BoqvistC	18:45	0-1	1	0.14	39	0/0	0.62	1.98	C
R. TufteL	14:26	0-0	2	0.12	63	0/0	0.36	1.51	C
X. ParentC	13:20	0-0	1	0.11	64	0/0	0.33	1.50	C
M. DiotteD	22:06	0-0	0	0.01	77	0/0	0.40	1.08	C
T. VilenD	22:35	0-0	1	0.01	57	0/0	0.34	0.91	C
S. LachanceL	12:24	0-0	1	0.04	59	0/0	0.25	1.22	C
V. KolyachonokD	22:48	0-0	1	0.03	50	1/0	0.29	0.76	D
R. SchmelzerC	12:59	0-0	1	0.58	43	0/0	0.15	0.71	D
M. McLaughlinC	14:36	0-0	0	0.01	61	1/2	0.10	0.40	D
A. SilaevD	19:48	0-0	1	0.02	36	0/0	-0.10	-0.29	F

NYR18 skaters

Skater	TOI	G-A	SOG	ixG	xG%	PD/PT	Impact	/60	Grade
W. CuylleL	21:00	1-1	3	0.74	50	0/0	1.90	5.43	A+
A. BlidhL	10:19	1-0	3	0.24	34	0/0	0.89	5.16	A
G. PerreaultR	21:39	0-2	1	0.30	44	0/0	1.13	3.12	A
S. MorrowD	25:44	1-0	3	0.18	48	0/0	0.98	2.28	A
M. RobertsonD	17:06	0-1	0	0.00	55	0/0	0.85	2.98	B
M. RempeC	14:14	0-1	1	0.03	61	0/0	0.73	3.07	B
G. GawdinC	10:21	0-1	0	0.00	36	0/0	0.54	3.13	B
N. LabaC	20:25	0-0	1	0.43	58	1/0	0.63	1.86	C
M. Del GaizoD	20:48	0-0	2	0.01	53	2/1	0.43	1.25	C
J. VelenoC	19:28	0-0	2	0.46	47	0/0	0.22	0.67	D
T. KartyeL	15:48	0-0	0	0.00	64	0/0	0.20	0.74	D
L. GreentreeR	17:24	0-0	2	0.18	48	0/0	0.17	0.57	D
N. AspinallL	11:26	0-0	2	0.29	46	0/1	0.02	0.09	D
J. ChmelarR	14:25	0-0	2	0.14	38	0/0	-0.01	-0.05	D
D. FortescueD	20:31	0-0	0	0.19	40	0/0	-0.12	-0.36	F
W. TrudeauD	16:47	0-0	0	0.02	40	0/0	-0.12	-0.43	F
A. SmitsD	23:48	0-0	1	0.04	27	0/0	-0.23	-0.59	F
C. BeaudoinC	14:57	0-0	0	0.05	32	0/1	-0.31	-1.23	F

xG% = share of expected goals while on the ice · PD/PT = penalties drawn / taken · “in N min” = a per-60 rate far above the raw total. Impact = 0.75 G + 0.7 A1 + 0.55 A2 + 0.075 SOG + 0.05 BLK + 0.15 penalties drawn − 0.15 taken + 0.01 faceoff wins − 0.01 losses + 0.3 individual xG + 0.5 on-ice xG for − 0.5 on-ice xG against. Rating = 65% impact + 35% impact per 60, as a percentile among the skaters in this game.

Scratched, NJD: J. Allen, B. Dillon, N. Bjugstad, D. Hamilton, C. Brown, B. Pesce and 45 more. Scratched, NYR: M. Zibanejad, J. Miller, O. Bjorkstrand, M. Pettersson, I. Shesterkin, V. Gavrikov and 35 more. Referees Francois St-Laurent and Austin Rook; linesmen Libor Suchanek and Anthony Lapointe.

Graded against a league-average game

Report card

Seven dimensions · A+ to F

DimensionNJDNYR

Offense

▸Basis

NJD Created 3.87 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 6 high-danger shots (1.48 xG) and 23 rush shots (3.27 xG).

NYR Created 3.30 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 5 high-danger shots (1.07 xG) and 29 rush shots (2.75 xG).

A+

B+

Defense

▸Basis

NJD Allowed 3.30 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 5 high-danger shots (1.07 xG) and 29 rush shots (2.75 xG).

NYR Allowed 3.87 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 6 high-danger shots (1.48 xG) and 23 rush shots (3.27 xG).

D-

Transition

▸Basis

NJD Rush shots 23–29, rush xG 3.27–2.75 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

NYR Rush shots 29–23, rush xG 2.75–3.27 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

C+

Special teams

▸Basis

NJD 1-for-2 on the power play (50%; league ≈21%) with 0.20 PP xG.

NYR 0-for-2 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.50 PP xG.

A+

100

Goaltending

▸Basis

NJD +0.30 goals saved above expected on 23 shots against.

NYR +0.87 goals saved above expected on 23 shots against.

C+

Discipline

▸Basis

NJD Took 3 penalties for 6 PIM vs 3 for 6 on the other side.

NYR Took 3 penalties for 6 PIM vs 3 for 6 on the other side.

Luck

Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral

▸Basis

NJD Finishing -0.87 goals vs xG plus +0.30 GSAx of save luck = -0.57 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

NYR Finishing -0.30 goals vs xG plus +0.87 GSAx of save luck = +0.57 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

C-

B-

Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately

What the model flagged

WARNINGNYR

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 23 rush shots worth 3.27 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

WARNINGNJD

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 29 rush shots worth 2.75 xG (3 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

STRENGTHNYR

Dangerous off the rush

3 goals on 29 rush shots worth 2.75 xG.

STRENGTHNJD

Dangerous off the rush

2 goals on 23 rush shots worth 3.27 xG.

LUCKNYR

Wasted the best looks

0-for-5 on high-danger chances worth 1.07 xG — that conversion rate won't stay at zero.

STRENGTHNJD

N. Daws was perfect on high danger

N. Daws stopped all 5 high-danger shots he faced (100% HD save rate).

81 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

NJD

41 shots

Final

81 shots

NYR

40 shots

NJD NYR GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

Each club shoots toward its own end — NJD left, NYR right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

G. Perreault

#94 · R · NYR

0 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 21:39 on ice · +1

W. Cuylle

#50 · L · NYR

1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 21:00 on ice · +2

M. Melovsky

#57 · C · NJD

0 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 16:28 on ice · +2

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

Keep going

Where to next

Back to the front page