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Motion-blurred skater in a Carolina Hurricanes sweater
← Thu, Sep 24 · the slate
Breakdown · NSH at CAR · Preseason

Hurricanes steal one from the Predators against the run of play

FinalThu, Sep 24
NSHNashville Predators5CARCarolina Hurricanes6
The verdict · stolen

The Hurricanes stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 0.00–0.00 and won anyway.

NSH 5 · CAR 6
Preseason · exhibition

Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The shots and grades below describe this game only: nothing here counts toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.

◆ By the ModelSep 27, 5:38 AMxG: heuristicEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Carolina won 6-5 against the better team. L. Stankoven scored twice, T. Hall set up three goals, and F. Unger Sorum buried the winner with seconds to spare — a late surge that overcame Nashville's control of the entire night.

The Predators dominated at even strength, yet the Hurricanes won. Carolina overperformed their expected goals by 6.00 and Nashville overperformed theirs by 5.00. That variance is the sole difference: the Hurricanes made unlikely finishes count while the Predators squandered the better looks.

L. Stankoven struck at 01:19 of the second, cutting Nashville's lead to 3-1, and again at 18:36 of the third to tie it 5-5. T. Hall's three assists built the comeback, starting with both of Stankoven's goals and J. Válimäki's power-play tally at 08:26 of the third.

The power play finished it. Nashville scored once early (C. O'Hara at 07:09 of the first), but Carolina struck twice in the third on the advantage: J. Válimäki at 08:26, F. Unger Sorum at 19:57. Special teams converted when it mattered, and the Predators — who commanded five-on-five play — left without a point.

The goals

  • NSH 1–0, 01:48 of the first. V. Pinchuk, shot, past P. Kochetkov. Assists: T. Molendyk. Win probability moved 14 points.
  • NSH 2–0, 07:09 of the first on the power play. C. O'Hara, shot, past P. Kochetkov. Win probability moved 13 points.
  • NSH 3–0, 15:24 of the first. J. Marchessault, shot, past P. Kochetkov. Assists: V. Pinchuk. Win probability moved 10 points.
  • CAR 3–1, 01:19 of the second. L. Stankoven, shot, past J. Annunen. Assists: T. Hall, N. Fransén. Win probability moved 9 points.
  • NSH 4–1, 03:20 of the second. A. Edstrom, shot, past P. Kochetkov. Assists: T. Molendyk. Win probability moved 9 points.
  • NSH 5–1, 08:24 of the second. J. Drury, shot, past P. Kochetkov. Assists: F. Nilsson.
  • CAR 5–2, 12:38 of the second. J. Kotkaniemi, shot, past J. Annunen. Assists: P. Joseph.
  • CAR 5–3, 16:19 of the second. J. Jaaska, shot, past J. Annunen. Assists: J. Kotkaniemi. Win probability moved 8 points.
  • CAR 5–4, 08:26 of the third on the power play. J. Välimäki, shot, past J. Annunen. Assists: T. Hall, L. Stankoven. Win probability moved 15 points.
  • CAR 5–5, 18:36 of the third. L. Stankoven, shot, past J. Annunen. Assists: T. Hall, J. Blake. Win probability moved 47 points.
  • CAR 5–6, 19:57 of the third on the power play. F. Unger Sorum, shot, past J. Annunen. Assists: B. Nadeau. Win probability moved 50 points.

What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Preseason · Sep 24
NSH
5
CAR
6

Hurricanes steal one from the Predators against the run of play

Chances 0.0 – 0.0Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Hurricanes took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value
NSH
0.00
CAR
0.00
100% of the chances0%

The board read NSH 5, CAR 6. The chances read NSH 0.0, CAR 0.0.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
CAR
+6.0
goals above expected
CAR0.00 expected · 6 scored
Expected
Scored
NSH0.00 expected · 5 scored
Expected
Scored

The Hurricanes scored 6.0 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
The swing
+50
win-probability points
50% → 100% for CAR
CAR 100%the game, start to finish
NSH 100%P1 · P2 · P3
CARP3 19:57 · PP

F. Unger Sorum makes it 5–6.

In-game win model · fitted on 5,248 games
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 01:48NSHV. Pinchuk1–0
  2. P1 07:09NSHC. O'HaraPP2–0
  3. P1 15:24NSHJ. Marchessault3–0
  4. P2 01:19CARL. Stankoven3–1
  5. P2 03:20NSHA. Edstrom4–1
  6. P2 08:24NSHJ. Drury5–1
  7. P2 12:38CARJ. Kotkaniemi5–2
+4 more on the full breakdown
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
NSH
5 shots
5
Final
11 shots
CAR
6 shots
6
NSH attackCAR attack
NSH CAR Goal
5
shots · 5 in
6
shots · 6 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Best skater on the ice
A+
CAR
L. Stankoven
C · impact 2.58
0:00
Ice time
2–1
G – A
0.00
Own xG
Impact · top 4
L. Stankoven2.6A+
T. Hall2.2A+
J. Kotkaniemi1.7A+
V. Pinchuk1.7A
Report card
NSHCAR
Special teamsB-B-
DisciplineCC
Seven dimensions, A+ to F · basis on the breakdown
Why it went the way it went
Why CAR won
  1. 01Power play cashed in
  2. 02L. Stankoven led the way
  3. 03The moment it turned
Our storyline model · reasoning on the breakdown
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Hurricanes steal one from the Predators against the run of play

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 10 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 3–0
  1. 01:48NSHV. Pinchuk(T. Molendyk)1–0

    Shot, past P. Kochetkov. Win probability moved 14 points.

  2. 07:09NSHC. O'Harapower play2–0

    Shot, past P. Kochetkov. Win probability moved 13 points.

  3. 15:24NSHJ. Marchessault(V. Pinchuk)3–0

    Shot, past P. Kochetkov. Win probability moved 10 points.

2ndshots 2–3
  1. 01:19CARL. Stankoven(T. Hall, N. Fransén)3–1

    Shot, past J. Annunen. Win probability moved 9 points.

  2. 03:20NSHA. Edstrom(T. Molendyk)4–1

    Shot, past P. Kochetkov. Win probability moved 9 points.

  3. 08:24NSHJ. Drury(F. Nilsson)5–1

    Shot, past P. Kochetkov.

  4. 12:38CARJ. Kotkaniemi(P. Joseph)5–2

    Shot, past J. Annunen.

  5. 16:19CARJ. Jaaska(J. Kotkaniemi)5–3

    Shot, past J. Annunen. Win probability moved 8 points.

3rdshots 0–3
  1. 08:26CARJ. Välimäkipower play(T. Hall, L. Stankoven)5–4

    Shot, past J. Annunen. Win probability moved 15 points.

  2. 18:36CARL. Stankoven(T. Hall, J. Blake)5–5

    Shot, past J. Annunen. Win probability moved 47 points.

  3. 19:57CARF. Unger Sorumpower play(B. Nadeau)5–6

    Shot, past J. Annunen. Win probability moved 50 points.

score reads NSH–CAR

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
0.00
CAR chances
Goals their shots were worth
+6.0
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
Split by club

Who controlled the game

0.00Expected goals0.00
NSH 100% of the chance quality
0Shots on goal0
0High-danger chances0
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
NSH
5 G · 0.00 xG · +5.0
CAR
6 G · 0.00 xG · +6.0
01234567

NSH finished +5.0 against expected, CAR +6.0.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Every skater who dressed

Who played

Rated on what they produced and how fast

Best skater on the ice by our rating: L. Stankoven (CAR), 0:00 of ice, 2-1.

NSH18 skaters
SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
V. PinchukC0:001-1—A
T. MolendykD0:000-2—A
J. MarchessaultR0:001-0—A
C. O'HaraR0:001-0—A
A. EdstromC0:001-0—B
J. DruryC0:001-0—B
F. NilssonC0:000-1—C
M. BourqueC0:000-0—C
H. SkinnerD0:000-0—C
N. HagueD0:000-0—C
R. UfkoD0:000-0—D
A. WilsbyD0:000-0—D
R. SchaeferL0:000-0—D
A. KerfootC0:000-0—D
N. PerbixD0:000-0—D
R. ColtonC0:000-0—D
B. MartinC0:000-0—F
I. LyubushkinD0:000-0—F
CAR18 skaters
SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
L. StankovenC0:002-1—A+
T. HallL0:000-3—A+
J. KotkaniemiC0:001-1—A+
J. VälimäkiD0:001-0—A
F. Unger SorumR0:001-0—B
P. JosephD0:000-1—B
J. JaaskaL0:001-0—B
B. NadeauL0:000-1—B
J. BlakeR0:000-1—B
N. FransénD0:000-1—C
Z. LansardR0:000-0—C
D. BadinkaD0:000-0—C
J. SlavinL0:000-0—C
J. RobidasC0:000-0—D
C. CerratoC0:000-0—D
A. HeimosalmiD0:000-0—F
C. LegaultD0:000-0—F
S. Brind'AmourC0:000-0—F

xG% = share of expected goals while on the ice · PD/PT = penalties drawn / taken · “in N min” = a per-60 rate far above the raw total. Impact = 0.75 G + 0.7 A1 + 0.55 A2 + 0.075 SOG + 0.05 BLK + 0.15 penalties drawn − 0.15 taken + 0.01 faceoff wins − 0.01 losses + 0.3 individual xG + 0.5 on-ice xG for − 0.5 on-ice xG against. Rating = 65% impact + 35% impact per 60, as a percentile among the skaters in this game.

Scratched, NSH: S. Stamkos, R. Josi, R. O'Reilly, B. Skjei, F. Forsberg, J. Saros and 11 more. Scratched, CAR: J. Staal, N. Deslauriers, M. Reilly, M. Jankowski, S. Gostisbehere, J. Martinook and 19 more. Referees TJ Luxmore and Beau Halkidis; linesmen Julien Fournier and Jeremy Faucher.

Graded against a league-average game

Report card

Seven dimensions · A+ to F
DimensionNSHCAR
Special teams
▸Basis

NSH 1-for-3 on the power play (33%; league ≈21%) with 0.00 PP xG.

CAR 1-for-3 on the power play (33%; league ≈21%) with 0.00 PP xG.

B-
81
B-
81
Discipline
▸Basis

NSH Took 3 penalties for 6 PIM vs 3 for 6 on the other side.

CAR Took 3 penalties for 6 PIM vs 3 for 6 on the other side.

C
75
C
75
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
What the model flagged
STRENGTHCAR

Power play cashed in

1-for-3 on the power play (33%) on 0.00 PP xG.

STRENGTHNSH

Power play cashed in

1-for-3 on the power play (33%) on 0.00 PP xG.

STRENGTHCAR

L. Stankoven led the way

2G 1A — the game's first star.

TACTICALCAR

The moment it turned

Felix Unger Sorum's shot in P3 swung the game.

STRENGTHCAR

T. Hall made a difference

3A — the game's second star.

STRENGTHNSH

V. Pinchuk made a difference

1G 1A — the game's third star.

11 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
NSH
5 shots
5
Final
11 shots
CAR
6 shots
6
NSH attackCAR attack
NSH CAR Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — NSH left, CAR right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
L. Stankoven
#22 · C · CAR
2 G · 1 A · 7 SOG · +1
T. Hall
#71 · L · CAR
0 G · 3 A · 1 SOG · +1
V. Pinchuk
#51 · C · NSH
1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
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