Backcheck
Pick club
Motion-blurred skater in a Florida Panthers sweater
← Thu, Sep 24 · the slate
Breakdown · FLA at TBL · Preseason

Panthers hold off the Lightning

FinalThu, Sep 24
FLAFlorida Panthers5TBLTampa Bay Lightning3
The verdict · stolen

The Panthers stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 2.57–4.37 and won anyway.

FLA 5 · TBL 3
Preseason · exhibition

Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The shots and grades below describe this game only: nothing here counts toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.

◆ By the ModelSep 26, 1:04 PMxG: xgboost-0.765Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Florida beat Tampa Bay 5–3 by out-rushing the Lightning's dominance. The Panthers were clinical off the rush while Tampa, despite controlling play, couldn't convert their chances.

The heist. Tampa Bay generated expected goals at a 63–37 clip, a dominant advantage that should have won it. Florida's 5 goals outran 2.57 expected goals by 2.43. Tampa's 3 goals fell 1.37 short of their 4.37 expected. The Panthers stole a game the numbers usually don't allow.

How they did it. Off the rush, Florida converted 5 times on 17 chances. Tampa managed 2 on 27. That's the margin — not a defensive collapse, but elite efficiency on transition. C. Reinhardt's go-ahead goal in the third, a snap shot 25 feet out 3 seconds after his own turnover theft, summed it up: Florida was hungry, Tampa disorganized when it mattered most.

A. Vasilevskiy let in 1.43 more goals than his play deserved, a gap that points to finishing quality and stops that might haunt the tape.

Sandis Vilmanis's empty-netter at 19:36 of the third — top of the circles, the Panthers up 4–3 — ended the comeback route. Before that, the game was genuinely open: 15 high-danger chances between the teams (Tampa 9, Florida 6), and either club could have won.

H. St. Martin's backhander in the third gave the Panthers 3–2. B. Imama's deflection 11 feet from goal in the first set the tone; K. Schwindt's snap shot early in the second made it 2–0.

The Panthers' special teams and transition defense were liabilities (both F's). But in a night when one team dominated play and lost anyway, that's where the game went.

The goals

  • FLA 1–0, 19:44 of the first. B. Imama, deflection from 11 feet, an 8% chance by the model (off the rush), past A. Vasilevskiy. Assists: D. Sebrango, S. Lafferty. 6 seconds after a TBL hit by C. Geekie. Win probability moved 19 points.
  • FLA 2–0, 02:29 of the second. K. Schwindt, snap shot from 8 feet, an 8% chance by the model (off the rush), past A. Vasilevskiy. Assists: C. Reinhardt, M. Hovorka. Win probability moved 15 points.
  • TBL 2–1, 03:14 of the second. J. Harkins, snap shot from 24 feet, a 20% chance by the model (off the rush), past C. Black. Assists: I. Mikheyev, J. Moser. Win probability moved 15 points.
  • TBL 2–2, 13:09 of the second. C. Geekie, snap shot from 8 feet, a 30% chance by the model (off the rush), past C. Black. Assists: S. O'Reilly, B. Rautiainen. 8 seconds after a FLA giveaway by M. Hovorka. Win probability moved 23 points.
  • FLA 3–2, 04:21 of the third. H. St. Martin, backhander from 17 feet, an 11% chance by the model (off the rush), past A. Vasilevskiy. Assists: A. Petrovic, K. Schwindt. Win probability moved 29 points.
  • TBL 3–3, 05:29 of the third. J. Harkins, snap shot from 5 feet, a 21% chance by the model (a rebound), past K. Gerasimyuk. Assists: R. McDonagh, J. Pelletier. 2 seconds after a TBL shot by J. Harkins. K. Gerasimyuk was 329 seconds into his shift for the defending side. Win probability moved 29 points.
  • FLA 4–3, 05:35 of the third. C. Reinhardt, snap shot from 25 feet, a 22% chance by the model (off the rush), past A. Vasilevskiy. 3 seconds after a FLA takeaway by C. Reinhardt. Win probability moved 29 points.
  • FLA 5–3, 19:36 of the third into an empty net. S. Vilmanis, snap shot from 46 feet, a 20% chance by the model (off the rush). Assists: U. Balinskis.

What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Preseason · Sep 24
FLA
5
TBL
3

Panthers hold off the Lightning

Chances 2.6 – 4.4Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Lightning deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value
FLA
2.57
TBL
4.37
37% of the chances63%

The board read FLA 5, TBL 3. The chances read FLA 2.6, TBL 4.4.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
FLA
+2.4
goals above expected
FLA2.57 expected · 5 scored
Expected
Scored
TBL4.37 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored

The Panthers scored 2.4 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
The swing
+29
win-probability points
47% → 77% for FLA
TBL 100%the game, start to finish
FLA 100%P1 · P2 · P3
FLAP3 05:35

C. Reinhardt makes it 4–3.

In-game win model · fitted on 5,248 games
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 19:44FLAB. Imama8%1–0
  2. P2 02:29FLAK. Schwindt8%2–0
  3. P2 03:14TBLJ. Harkins20%2–1
  4. P2 13:09TBLC. Geekie30%2–2
  5. P3 04:21FLAH. St. Martin11%3–2
  6. P3 05:29TBLJ. Harkins21%3–3
  7. P3 05:35FLAC. Reinhardt22%4–3
+1 more on the full breakdown
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
FLA
32 shots
5
Final
78 shots
TBL
46 shots
3
FLA attackTBL attack
FLA TBL Goal
32
shots · 5 in
46
shots · 3 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
FLATBL
2 / 6
1.37 xG
High danger
3 / 9
1.99 xG
3 / 10
0.98 xG
Medium
0 / 19
1.99 xG
0 / 24
0.22 xG
Low
0 / 37
0.39 xG

The Panthers buried 2 of 6 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
B+
K. Gerasimyuk
+0.8
FLA · 11/12 · 20:00 · in relief
Best save · a 20% chance, backhand from 5 ft · P3 14:21
B
C. Black
+0.5
FLA · 14/16 · 40:00
Best save · a 32% chance, snap from 6 ft · P2 14:52
+1 more on the full breakdown
Best skater on the ice
A+
TBL
J. Harkins
C · impact 2.00
10:49
Ice time
2–0
G – A
0.70
Own xG
48%
xG share
Impact · top 4
J. Harkins2.0A+
K. Schwindt1.4A+
C. Reinhardt1.6A+
B. Point1.8A
Report card
FLATBL
OffenseB-A+
DefenseFC-
TransitionFA
Special teamsFD-
GoaltendingB+D-
DisciplineD-A-
LuckA+F
Seven dimensions, A+ to F · basis on the breakdown
Why it went the way it went
Why FLA won
  1. 01Dangerous off the rush
  2. 02Won against the run of play
  3. 03Clinical in the slot
Why TBL lost
  1. 01Rush defense leaked all night
  2. 02Deserved a better fate
  3. 03PDO ran cold
Our storyline model · reasoning on the breakdown
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Panthers hold off the Lightning

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 12 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 4–5
  1. 19:44FLAB. Imama(D. Sebrango, S. Lafferty)1–0

    Deflection from 11 feet, an 8% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past A. Vasilevskiy. 6s after a TBL hit by C. Geekie. Win probability moved 19 points.On the ice: B. Imama, N. Bastian, C. Schwindt, M. Hovorka, M. Shuravin · against J. Carlson, S. Sabourin, J. Harkins, J. Pelletier, J. Moser

2ndshots 10–11
  1. 02:29FLAK. Schwindt(C. Reinhardt, M. Hovorka)2–0

    Snap shot from 8 feet, an 8% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past A. Vasilevskiy. Win probability moved 15 points.On the ice: C. Reinhardt, D. Sebrango, M. Alscher, K. Schwindt, H. St. Martin · against S. Sabourin, J. Harkins, I. Mikheyev, J. Moser, E. Lilleberg

  2. 03:14TBLJ. Harkins(I. Mikheyev, J. Moser)2–1

    Snap shot from 24 feet, a 20% chance (off the rush), past C. Black. Win probability moved 15 points.On the ice: R. McDonagh, E. Cernak, C. Geekie, S. O'Reilly, B. Rautiainen · against A. Petrovic, N. Bastian, A. Crookshank, C. Schwindt, U. Balinskis

  3. 13:09TBLC. Geekie(S. O'Reilly, B. Rautiainen)2–2

    Snap shot from 8 feet, a 30% chance (off the rush), past C. Black. 8s after a FLA giveaway by M. Hovorka. Win probability moved 23 points.On the ice: V. Hedman, N. Kucherov, B. Point, I. Mikheyev, E. Lilleberg · against N. Bastian, A. Crookshank, C. Schwindt, M. Hovorka, M. Shuravin

3rdshots 11–12
  1. 04:21FLAH. St. Martin(A. Petrovic, K. Schwindt)3–2

    Backhander from 17 feet, an 11% chance (off the rush), past A. Vasilevskiy. Win probability moved 29 points.On the ice: N. Bastian, A. Crookshank, C. Schwindt, D. Sebrango, K. Gerasimyuk, M. Alscher · against J. Carlson, J. Moser, C. Geekie, S. O'Reilly, B. Rautiainen

  2. 05:29TBLJ. Harkins(R. McDonagh, J. Pelletier)3–3

    Snap shot from 5 feet, a 21% chance (a rebound), past K. Gerasimyuk. 2s after a TBL shot by J. Harkins. K. Gerasimyuk was 329s into his shift for the defending side. Win probability moved 29 points.On the ice: R. McDonagh, J. Guentzel, E. Cernak, A. Cirelli, B. Hagel · against A. Petrovic, C. Reinhardt, K. Gerasimyuk, K. Schwindt, U. Balinskis, H. St. Martin

  3. 05:35FLAC. Reinhardt4–3

    Snap shot from 25 feet, a 22% chance (off the rush), past A. Vasilevskiy. 3s after a FLA takeaway by C. Reinhardt. Win probability moved 29 points.On the ice: A. Petrovic, C. Reinhardt, J. Beecher, K. Gerasimyuk, U. Balinskis, H. St. Martin · against R. McDonagh, J. Guentzel, E. Cernak, A. Cirelli, B. Hagel

  4. 19:36FLAS. Vilmanisempty net(U. Balinskis)5–3

    Snap shot from 46 feet, a 20% chance (off the rush).On the ice: S. Lafferty, B. Imama, J. Beecher, K. Gerasimyuk, M. Hovorka, M. Shuravin · against J. Moser, E. Lilleberg, C. Geekie, S. O'Reilly, B. Rautiainen

score reads FLA–TBL

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
2.57
FLA chances
Goals their shots were worth
+2.4
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.079
FLA puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
38.1%
Shot attempts
Under half — they were outshot
Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.57Expected goals4.37
TBL 63% of the chance quality
25Shots on goal28
6High-danger chances9
40All attempts (Corsi)65
Adjusted for score: FLA 36% · TBL 64%
Faceoffs · TBL won77%off32%neu60%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
FLA2 / 6 · 1.37 xG
TBL3 / 9 · 1.99 xG
Medium dangermid-range
FLA3 / 10 · 0.98 xG
TBL0 / 19 · 1.99 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
FLA0 / 24 · 0.22 xG
TBL0 / 37 · 0.39 xG

FLA went 3-for-10 from medium danger on 0.98 expected goals — 2.0 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
FLA
5 G · 2.57 xG · +2.4
TBL
3 G · 4.37 xG · -1.4
0123456

FLA finished +2.4 against expected, TBL -1.4.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
FLA
SNAP3/8
SLAP0/3
WRIST0/16
TIP IN0/2
BACKHAND1/2
DEFLECTED1/1
OTHER0/8
TBL
SNAP3/19
SLAP0/17
WRIST0/3
TIP IN0/4
BACKHAND0/2
DEFLECTED0/1
OTHER0/19
FLA
TBL
Off the rush
5 G on 17
1.98 xG
2 G on 27
3.29 xG
Off rebounds
0 G on 2
0.15 xG
1 G on 4
0.42 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: FLA went 3-for-8, TBL 3-for-19. FLA scored 5 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
K. Gerasimyuk
FLA · 11/12 · .917
in relief · 20:00 · win
+0.8
saved above expected
B+
the night
Attempts faced
19
Avg chance faced
9.8%
Stopped vs expected
0.947 vs 0.902
Rebounds allowed
4 · 1 scored on
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger1/40.8-0.2
Medium0/90.9+0.9
Low0/60.1+0.1
Shorthanded0/60.7+0.7
Tips & deflections0/30.3+0.3
The save
20% chance stopped, a backhand from 5 ft · P3 14:21
The one to have back
21% chance went in, a snap from 5 ft · P3 05:29

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

C. Black
FLA · 14/16 · .875
started · 40:00
+0.5
saved above expected
B
the night
Attempts faced
27
Avg chance faced
9.3%
Stopped vs expected
0.926 vs 0.907
Rebounds allowed
0
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger2/51.2-0.8
Medium0/101.1+1.1
Low0/120.2+0.2
Shorthanded0/101.4+1.4
Tips & deflections0/20.2+0.2
The save
32% chance stopped, a snap from 6 ft · P2 14:52
The one to have back
20% chance went in, a snap from 24 ft · P2 03:14

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

A. Vasilevskiy
TBL · 20/24 · .833
started · 56:34 · loss
-1.6
saved above expected
F
the night
Attempts faced
30
Avg chance faced
7.9%
Stopped vs expected
0.867 vs 0.921
Rebounds allowed
2
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger1/51.2+0.2
Medium3/101.0-2.0
Low0/150.2+0.2
Shorthanded0/30.2+0.2
Tips & deflections1/20.4-0.6
The save
32% chance stopped, a tip-in from 4 ft · P3 13:13
The one to have back
8% chance went in, a snap from 8 ft · P2 02:29

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

Every skater who dressed

Who played

Rated on what they produced and how fast

Best skater on the ice by our rating: J. Harkins (TBL), 10:49 of ice, 2-0, 48% of the expected goals while he was out.

FLA18 skaters
SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
K. SchwindtL10:331-130A+
C. ReinhardtL13:501-140A+
H. St. MartinL12:571-061B
S. VilmanisL15:321-031B
B. ImamaL13:131-064B
M. HovorkaD16:130-146B
S. LaffertyC18:360-148C
U. BalinskisD22:320-134C
D. SebrangoD21:110-134C
M. AlscherD21:150-052C
J. BeecherC16:490-058D
N. BastianR14:100-050D
A. CrookshankC11:070-040D
A. PetrovicD24:030-122D
M. ShuravinD15:200-048F
G. HathawayR12:220-04F
C. SchwindtR13:460-035F
L. EllerC16:310-026F
TBL18 skaters
SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
J. HarkinsC10:492-048A+
B. PointC21:440-079A
J. GuentzelC21:070-080A
B. HagelL20:120-083A
J. CarlsonD23:510-080A
N. KucherovR22:130-079A
C. GeekieC15:131-032B
R. McDonaghD16:200-152B
I. MikheyevR13:590-144B
S. O'ReillyR14:260-129C
J. PelletierL9:480-146C
B. RautiainenC13:220-137C
J. MoserD17:230-138C
A. CirelliC14:300-063D
E. CernakD15:070-057D
S. SabourinR11:130-049D
V. HedmanD19:370-044D
E. LillebergD18:320-034F

xG% = share of expected goals while on the ice · PD/PT = penalties drawn / taken · “in N min” = a per-60 rate far above the raw total. Impact = 0.75 G + 0.7 A1 + 0.55 A2 + 0.075 SOG + 0.05 BLK + 0.15 penalties drawn − 0.15 taken + 0.01 faceoff wins − 0.01 losses + 0.3 individual xG + 0.5 on-ice xG for − 0.5 on-ice xG against. Rating = 65% impact + 35% impact per 60, as a percentile among the skaters in this game.

Scratched, FLA: B. Marchand, J. Markstrom, D. Kulikov, R. Gudas, C. Verhaeghe, A. Barkov and 48 more. Scratched, TBL: J. Tinordi, L. Glendening, Y. Gourde, Z. Girgensons, S. Santini, J. Johansson and 56 more. Referees Francis Charron and Gord Dwyer; linesmen James Tobias and Jesse Marquis.

Graded against a league-average game

Report card

Seven dimensions · A+ to F
DimensionFLATBL
Offense
▸Basis

FLA Created 2.57 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 6 high-danger shots (1.37 xG) and 17 rush shots (1.98 xG).

TBL Created 4.37 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 9 high-danger shots (1.99 xG) and 27 rush shots (3.29 xG).

B-
80
A+
100
Defense
▸Basis

FLA Allowed 4.37 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 9 high-danger shots (1.99 xG) and 27 rush shots (3.29 xG).

TBL Allowed 2.57 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 6 high-danger shots (1.37 xG) and 17 rush shots (1.98 xG).

F
44
C-
70
Transition
▸Basis

FLA Rush shots 17–27, rush xG 1.98–3.29 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

TBL Rush shots 27–17, rush xG 3.29–1.98 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

F
57
A
93
Special teams
▸Basis

FLA 0-for-1 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.24 PP xG.

TBL 0-for-4 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 1.39 PP xG.

F
58
D-
62
Goaltending
▸Basis

FLA +1.37 goals saved above expected on 28 shots against.

TBL -1.43 goals saved above expected on 24 shots against.

B+
89
D-
61
Discipline
▸Basis

FLA Took 5 penalties for 10 PIM vs 2 for 4 on the other side.

TBL Took 2 penalties for 4 PIM vs 5 for 10 on the other side.

D-
60
A-
90
Luck

Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral

▸Basis

FLA Finishing +2.43 goals vs xG plus +1.37 GSAx of save luck = +3.80 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

TBL Finishing -1.37 goals vs xG plus -1.43 GSAx of save luck = -2.80 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

A+
100
F
53
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
What the model flagged
WARNINGTBL

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 17 rush shots worth 1.98 xG (5 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

WARNINGFLA

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 27 rush shots worth 3.29 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

STRENGTHFLA

Dangerous off the rush

5 goals on 17 rush shots worth 1.98 xG.

STRENGTHTBL

Dangerous off the rush

2 goals on 27 rush shots worth 3.29 xG.

SURPRISEFLA

Won against the run of play

The Panthers took it 5-3 with only 37% of expected goals (2.57–4.37).

LUCKFLA

Ran hot in front of the net

Scored 5 on 2.57 xG — +2.43 above expected. Shooting luck like that regresses.

78 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
FLA
32 shots
5
Final
78 shots
TBL
46 shots
3
FLA attackTBL attack
FLA TBL Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — FLA left, TBL right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
C. Reinhardt
#29 · L · FLA
1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 13:50 on ice · +1
J. Harkins
#10 · C · TBL
2 G · 0 A · 4 SOG · 10:49 on ice · +1
K. Schwindt
#97 · L · FLA
1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 10:33 on ice · +2
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
Keep going

Where to next

Back to the front page