STRENGTHCAR
Dangerous off the rush
6 goals on 28 rush shots worth 3.33 xG.
The verdict · earned
The Hurricanes earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
CAR 6 · NSH 0
Preseason · exhibition
Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The shots and grades below describe this game only: nothing here counts toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.
◆ By the ModelSep 27, 12:02 AMxG: xgboost-0.765Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The Hurricanes shut out the Predators 6-0. They controlled the underlying play (62% of expected goals), but the shutout margin was inflated by exceptional goaltending from B. Bussi and poor play from J. Saros. The four-goal swing in goaltending variance — B. Bussi's +2.28 and J. Saros's -2.32 — turned what should have been a one-goal advantage into a complete blowout.
The Predators held 46% of shot attempts and drew six high-danger chances to Carolina's one. The ice looked dangerous for them. The scoreboard didn't reflect it.
The Hurricanes built their advantage off the rush. They converted six transition chances, a conversion rate that won't sustain, with Andrei Svechnikov's finish from the doorstep (period 3, 19:05) as the turning point. Every rush chance felt like a goal waiting to happen.
J. Blake scored twice and assisted twice. S. Aho recorded two assists, helping set up goals from J. Blake early and Andrei Svechnikov late. N. Ehlers scored and assisted in limited minutes. The power play landed three times on ten attempts, an unsustainable rate.
Three Stars
- J. Blake (CAR) — 1G, 2A in 15:02
- S. Aho (CAR) — 2A in 20:01
- N. Ehlers (CAR) — 1G, 1A in 13:13
Data: NHL play-by-play and shift charts, Backcheck expected goals model
The goals
- CAR 1–0, 05:02 of the first on the power play. J. Blake, wrist shot from 12 feet, a 14% chance by the model (off the rush), past J. Saros. Assists: S. Aho, S. Gostisbehere. Win probability moved 15 points.
- CAR 2–0, 07:04 of the first. J. Martinook, wrist shot from 10 feet, a 17% chance by the model (off the rush), past J. Saros. Assists: N. Ehlers, J. Staal. Win probability moved 13 points.
- CAR 3–0, 13:29 of the first. N. Ehlers, wrist shot from 25 feet, a 12% chance by the model (off the rush), past J. Saros. 5 seconds after a CAR takeaway by N. Ehlers. Win probability moved 10 points.
- CAR 4–0, 16:37 of the second. L. Stankoven, wrist shot from 22 feet, a 14% chance by the model (off the rush), past J. Saros. Assists: J. Blake.
- CAR 5–0, 09:21 of the third on the power play. M. Jankowski, wrist shot from 41 feet, a 6% chance by the model (off the rush), past J. Saros. Assists: F. Unger Sorum, T. Hall.
- CAR 6–0, 19:05 of the third on the power play. A. Svechnikov, wrist shot from 6 feet, a 22% chance by the model (off the rush), past J. Saros. Assists: S. Aho, J. Blake.
What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.