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Motion-blurred skater in a Colorado Avalanche sweater
← Fri, Sep 25 · the slate
Breakdown · WPG at COL · Preseason

Avalanche run the Jets off the ice on the underlying numbers

FinalFri, Sep 25
WPGWinnipeg Jets2COLColorado Avalanche5
The verdict · earned

The Avalanche earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

WPG 2 · COL 5
Preseason · exhibition

Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The shots and grades below describe this game only: nothing here counts toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.

◆ By the ModelSep 26, 1:31 PMxG: xgboost-0.765Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Avalanche dominated Winnipeg completely in a 5-2 win.

Colorado's dominance extended beyond the scoreline — they controlled 63% of expected goals at even strength (4.71–2.73). The shot battle was equally one-sided, with Colorado holding 56% of shot attempts (33–26). On the transition, the Avalanche scored 3 goals on 39 rush chances while Winnipeg gave up that volume and allowed all three to convert.

The real separator was finishing in the high-danger area. Colorado converted high-danger chances at 75% (3 of 4) while Winnipeg managed just 40% (2 of 5). M. Blackwood made 24 saves on 26 shots (0.923 save percentage, +0.73 versus expected). S. Skinner stopped 28 of 32 (0.875 save percentage, +0.71 versus expected).

Winnipeg's core problem was transition defense. The Jets gave up 39 rush shots, a volume that reflects repeated breakout failures. Colorado pressed relentlessly through three periods, and Winnipeg never established clean exits.

T. Hughes scored 3 goals and added an assist in 15:37, capping the night with an empty-net goal from 84 feet. J. Schwartz scored once and assisted twice in 12:49. N. Kadri recorded 2 assists in 16:02.

The goals

  • WPG 1–0, 06:15 of the first on the power play. N. Niederreiter, snap shot from 7 feet, a 20% chance by the model (a rebound), past M. Blackwood. Assists: N. Pionk, V. Namestnikov. 3 seconds after a WPG shot by N. Niederreiter. Win probability moved 15 points.
  • COL 1–1, 06:07 of the second. J. Schwartz, tip-in from 9 feet, a 9% chance by the model, past S. Skinner. Assists: T. Hughes, F. Svechkov. 7 seconds after a COL shot by F. Svechkov. Win probability moved 21 points.
  • WPG 2–1, 07:36 of the second. V. Namestnikov, wrist shot from 9 feet, a 20% chance by the model (off the rush), past M. Blackwood. Assists: N. Niederreiter. 9 seconds after a WPG faceoff win by A. Iafallo. Win probability moved 21 points.
  • COL 2–2, 18:28 of the second. T. Hughes, wrist shot from 18 feet, a 19% chance by the model (off the rush), past S. Skinner. Assists: N. Kadri, J. Schwartz. 3 seconds after a WPG giveaway by D. Samberg. Win probability moved 25 points.
  • COL 2–3, 19:49 of the second. T. Hughes, backhander from 28 feet, a 0% chance by the model (off the rush), past S. Skinner. Assists: B. Kulak, A. Lehkonen. Win probability moved 25 points.
  • COL 2–4, 15:25 of the third. C. Makar, snap shot from 27 feet, a 20% chance by the model (off the rush), past S. Skinner. Assists: N. MacKinnon, D. Toews. 9 seconds after a WPG takeaway by J. Morrissey. Win probability moved 9 points.
  • COL 2–5, 19:38 of the third into an empty net. T. Hughes, wrist shot from 84 feet, an 82% chance by the model. Assists: N. Kadri, J. Schwartz.

What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Preseason · Sep 25
WPG
2
COL
5

Avalanche run the Jets off the ice on the underlying numbers

Chances 2.7 – 4.7Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Avalanche earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
WPG
2.73
COL
4.71
37% of the chances63%

The board read WPG 2, COL 5. The chances read WPG 2.7, COL 4.7.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
COL
+0.3
goals above expected
COL4.71 expected · 5 scored
Expected
Scored
WPG2.73 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
The swing
+25
win-probability points
28% → 53% for COL
COL 100%the game, start to finish
WPG 100%P1 · P2 · P3
COLP2 18:28

T. Hughes makes it 2–2.

In-game win model · fitted on 5,248 games
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 06:15WPGN. NiederreiterPP20%1–0
  2. P2 06:07COLJ. Schwartz9%1–1
  3. P2 07:36WPGV. Namestnikov20%2–1
  4. P2 18:28COLT. Hughes19%2–2
  5. P2 19:49COLT. Hughes0%2–3
  6. P3 15:25COLC. Makar20%2–4
  7. P3 19:38COLT. HughesEN82%2–5
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
WPG
33 shots
2
Final
88 shots
COL
55 shots
5
WPG attackCOL attack
WPG COL Goal
33
shots · 2 in
55
shots · 5 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
WPGCOL
2 / 5
0.96 xG
High danger
3 / 4
1.39 xG
0 / 13
1.41 xG
Medium
1 / 26
2.87 xG
0 / 24
0.36 xG
Low
1 / 38
0.45 xG

The Avalanche buried 3 of 4 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
B
M. Blackwood
+0.7
COL · 24/26 · 60:00
Best save · a 20% chance, backhand from 8 ft · P3 13:37
C
S. Skinner
−0.1
WPG · 28/32 · 58:12
Best save · a 19% chance, snap from 6 ft · P1 02:12
Best skater on the ice
A+
COL
T. Hughes
R · impact 3.91
15:37
Ice time
3–1
G – A
1.07
Own xG
69%
xG share
Impact · top 4
T. Hughes3.9A+
J. Schwartz2.3A+
N. Kadri1.9A+
N. Niederreiter1.3A
Report card
WPGCOL
OffenseB-A+
DefenseFD+
TransitionD-A-
Special teamsBF
GoaltendingB-B-
DisciplineB-C-
LuckCB
Seven dimensions, A+ to F · basis on the breakdown
Why it went the way it went
Why COL won
  1. 01Dangerous off the rush
  2. 02Clinical in the slot
  3. 03Won on the merits
Why WPG lost
  1. 01Rush defense leaked all night
  2. 02Cold finishing night
  3. 03Rebound control was shaky
Our storyline model · reasoning on the breakdown
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Avalanche run the Jets off the ice on the underlying numbers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 12 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 9–7
  1. 06:15WPGN. Niederreiterpower play(N. Pionk, V. Namestnikov)1–0

    Snap shot from 7 feet, a 20% chance (a rebound), past M. Blackwood. 3s after a WPG shot by N. Niederreiter. Win probability moved 15 points.On the ice: D. DeMelo, A. Lowry, D. Samberg, M. Barron, B. Lambert · against G. Landeskog, B. Kulak, N. MacKinnon, M. Necas, S. Malinski

2ndshots 10–14
  1. 06:07COLJ. Schwartz(T. Hughes, F. Svechkov)1–1

    Tip-in from 9 feet, a 9% chance, a shot that rarely goes in, past S. Skinner. 7s after a COL shot by F. Svechkov. Win probability moved 21 points.On the ice: D. Toews, C. Makar, P. Kelly, F. Svechkov, T. Makar · against D. DeMelo, J. Morrissey, G. Vilardi, I. Rosen, V. Björck

  2. 07:36WPGV. Namestnikov(N. Niederreiter)2–1

    Wrist shot from 9 feet, a 20% chance (off the rush), past M. Blackwood. 9s after a WPG faceoff win by A. Iafallo. Win probability moved 21 points.On the ice: A. Lowry, D. Samberg, N. Pionk, M. Barron, B. Lambert · against G. Landeskog, N. MacKinnon, D. Toews, M. Necas, C. Makar

  3. 18:28COLT. Hughes(N. Kadri, J. Schwartz)2–2

    Wrist shot from 18 feet, a 19% chance (off the rush), past S. Skinner. 3s after a WPG giveaway by D. Samberg. Win probability moved 25 points.On the ice: G. Landeskog, N. MacKinnon, D. Toews, M. Necas, C. Makar · against M. Scheifele, J. Morrissey, K. Connor, M. Ferraro, C. Perfetti

  4. 19:49COLT. Hughes(B. Kulak, A. Lehkonen)2–3

    Backhander from 28 feet, a 0% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past S. Skinner. Win probability moved 25 points.On the ice: N. Kadri, J. Schwartz, B. Kulak, G. Brindley, S. Malinski · against A. Lowry, D. Samberg, N. Pionk, M. Barron, B. Lambert

3rdshots 7–12
  1. 15:25COLC. Makar(N. MacKinnon, D. Toews)2–4

    Snap shot from 27 feet, a 20% chance (off the rush), past S. Skinner. 9s after a WPG takeaway by J. Morrissey. Win probability moved 9 points.On the ice: N. Kadri, J. Schwartz, N. Juulsen, W. Aamodt, T. Hughes · against M. Scheifele, K. Connor, D. Samberg, N. Pionk, C. Perfetti

  2. 19:38COLT. Hughesempty net(N. Kadri, J. Schwartz)2–5

    Wrist shot from 84 feet, an 82% chance, a near-certain one.On the ice: N. Juulsen, P. Kelly, F. Svechkov, T. Makar, W. Aamodt · against N. Niederreiter, V. Namestnikov, M. Ferraro, A. Iafallo, T. Bauer

score reads WPG–COL

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
4.71
COL chances
Goals their shots were worth
+0.3
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.026
COL puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
61.8%
Shot attempts
Over half — they had the puck more
Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.73Expected goals4.71
COL 63% of the chance quality
26Shots on goal33
5High-danger chances4
42All attempts (Corsi)68
Adjusted for score: WPG 38% · COL 62%
Faceoffs · COL won42%off71%neu30%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
WPG2 / 5 · 0.96 xG
COL3 / 4 · 1.39 xG
Medium dangermid-range
WPG0 / 13 · 1.41 xG
COL1 / 26 · 2.87 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
WPG0 / 24 · 0.36 xG
COL1 / 38 · 0.45 xG

COL went 1-for-26 from medium danger on 2.87 expected goals — 1.9 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
WPG
2 G · 2.73 xG · -0.7
COL
5 G · 4.71 xG · +0.3
0123456

WPG finished -0.7 against expected, COL +0.3.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
WPG
WRIST1/16
SLAP0/5
SNAP1/3
TIP IN0/4
BACKHAND0/4
WRAP AROUND0/1
DEFLECTED0/0
OTHER0/9
COL
WRIST2/34
SLAP0/7
SNAP1/6
TIP IN1/5
BACKHAND1/2
WRAP AROUND0/0
DEFLECTED0/1
OTHER0/13
WPG
COL
Off the rush
1 G on 23
2.23 xG
3 G on 39
2.95 xG
Off rebounds
1 G on 2
0.34 xG
0 G on 5
0.61 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: WPG went 1-for-16, COL 2-for-34. COL scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
S. Skinner
WPG · 28/32 · .875
started · 58:12 · loss
-0.1
saved above expected
C
the night
Attempts faced
54
Avg chance faced
7.2%
Stopped vs expected
0.926 vs 0.928
Rebounds allowed
5
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger2/30.6-1.4
Medium1/262.9+1.9
Low1/250.5-0.6
Shorthanded0/30.3+0.3
Tips & deflections1/60.3-0.7
The save
19% chance stopped, a snap from 6 ft · P1 02:12
The one to have back
0% chance went in, a backhand from 28 ft · P2 19:49

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

M. Blackwood
COL · 24/26 · .923
started · 60:00 · win
+0.7
saved above expected
B
the night
Attempts faced
32
Avg chance faced
8.5%
Stopped vs expected
0.938 vs 0.915
Rebounds allowed
2 · 1 scored on
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger2/51.0-1.0
Medium0/131.4+1.4
Low0/140.4+0.4
Shorthanded1/111.2+0.2
Tips & deflections0/40.5+0.5
The save
20% chance stopped, a backhand from 8 ft · P3 13:37
The one to have back
20% chance went in, a snap from 7 ft · P1 06:15

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

Every skater who dressed

Who played

Rated on what they produced and how fast

Best skater on the ice by our rating: T. Hughes (COL), 15:37 of ice, 3-1, 69% of the expected goals while he was out.

WPG18 skaters
SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
N. NiederreiterR12:521-135A
V. NamestnikovC15:081-134A
N. PionkD21:130-155B
I. RosenR11:150-061C
A. LowryC13:430-055C
V. BjörckC12:150-056C
G. VilardiC14:320-040C
D. SambergD19:270-046D
M. BarronC14:260-050D
B. LambertC12:100-053D
J. MorrisseyD21:250-035D
M. ScheifeleC22:300-033D
K. ConnorL22:270-032D
D. DeMeloD22:470-034D
C. PerfettiC19:500-038F
A. IafalloL9:530-08F
T. BauerD10:300-010F
M. FerraroD19:250-010F
COL18 skaters
SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
T. HughesR15:373-169A+
J. SchwartzL12:491-259A+
N. KadriC16:020-267A+
F. SvechkovC15:140-175A
B. KulakD21:170-161A
N. MacKinnonC16:390-165A
C. MakarD22:041-056B
T. MakarL14:070-080B
W. AamodtD17:010-075B
P. KellyC13:510-089B
M. NecasC17:270-069B
N. JuulsenD15:250-074B
G. LandeskogL16:050-072C
D. ToewsD20:510-146C
A. LehkonenL13:480-139C
S. MalinskiD19:010-065C
B. NelsonC13:510-052D
G. BrindleyC11:000-025F

xG% = share of expected goals while on the ice · PD/PT = penalties drawn / taken · “in N min” = a per-60 rate far above the raw total. Impact = 0.75 G + 0.7 A1 + 0.55 A2 + 0.075 SOG + 0.05 BLK + 0.15 penalties drawn − 0.15 taken + 0.01 faceoff wins − 0.01 losses + 0.3 individual xG + 0.5 on-ice xG for − 0.5 on-ice xG against. Rating = 65% impact + 35% impact per 60, as a percentile among the skaters in this game.

Scratched, WPG: C. Hellebuyck, A. Sautner, H. Fleury, D. Mayo, P. Kraskovsky, N. Gregor and 32 more. Scratched, COL: B. Burns, S. Wedgewood, J. Manson, V. Hinostroza, J. Megna, N. Roy and 42 more. Referees Cody Beach and Jordan Samuels Thomas; linesmen Brandon Gawryletz and Travis Toomey.

Graded against a league-average game

Report card

Seven dimensions · A+ to F
DimensionWPGCOL
Offense
▸Basis

WPG Created 2.73 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 5 high-danger shots (0.96 xG) and 23 rush shots (2.23 xG).

COL Created 4.71 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 4 high-danger shots (1.39 xG) and 39 rush shots (2.95 xG).

B-
81
A+
100
Defense
▸Basis

WPG Allowed 4.71 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 4 high-danger shots (1.39 xG) and 39 rush shots (2.95 xG).

COL Allowed 2.73 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 5 high-danger shots (0.96 xG) and 23 rush shots (2.23 xG).

F
45
D+
69
Transition
▸Basis

WPG Rush shots 23–39, rush xG 2.23–2.95 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

COL Rush shots 39–23, rush xG 2.95–2.23 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

D-
60
A-
90
Special teams
▸Basis

WPG 1-for-4 on the power play (25%; league ≈21%) with 1.07 PP xG.

COL 0-for-3 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.33 PP xG.

B
84
F
52
Goaltending
▸Basis

WPG +0.71 goals saved above expected on 32 shots against.

COL +0.73 goals saved above expected on 26 shots against.

B-
82
B-
82
Discipline
▸Basis

WPG Took 3 penalties for 6 PIM vs 4 for 8 on the other side.

COL Took 4 penalties for 8 PIM vs 3 for 6 on the other side.

B-
80
C-
70
Luck

Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral

▸Basis

WPG Finishing -0.73 goals vs xG plus +0.71 GSAx of save luck = -0.02 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

COL Finishing +0.29 goals vs xG plus +0.73 GSAx of save luck = +1.02 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

C
75
B
83
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
What the model flagged
WARNINGWPG

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 39 rush shots worth 2.95 xG (3 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

STRENGTHCOL

Dangerous off the rush

3 goals on 39 rush shots worth 2.95 xG.

STRENGTHCOL

Clinical in the slot

3 goals on 4 high-danger shots (75% conversion on 1.39 xG).

WARNINGCOL

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 23 rush shots worth 2.23 xG (1 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

STRENGTHWPG

Dangerous off the rush

1 goals on 23 rush shots worth 2.23 xG.

STRENGTHWPG

Clinical in the slot

2 goals on 5 high-danger shots (40% conversion on 0.96 xG).

88 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
WPG
33 shots
2
Final
88 shots
COL
55 shots
5
WPG attackCOL attack
WPG COL Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — WPG left, COL right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
T. Hughes
#13 · R · COL
3 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 15:37 on ice · +4
J. Schwartz
#71 · L · COL
1 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 12:49 on ice · +3
N. Kadri
#91 · C · COL
0 G · 2 A · 2 SOG · 16:02 on ice · +2
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
Keep going

Where to next

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