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Motion-blurred skater in a Vegas Golden Knights sweater
← Tue, Sep 29 · the slate
Breakdown · CHI at VGK

Golden Knights run the Blackhawks off the ice on the underlying numbers

FinalTue, Sep 29
CHIChicago Blackhawks2VGKVegas Golden Knights5
The verdict · earned

The Golden Knights earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

CHI 2 · VGK 5
◆ By the ModelSep 30, 1:22 AMxG: xgboost-0.765Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Golden Knights beat the Blackhawks 5–2, and the underlying numbers backed the scoreline decisively. Vegas controlled 66 percent of expected goals at five-on-five and held 59 percent of shot attempts—a stranglehold that meant Chicago never generated the quality chances to hang around.

Vegas dictated play from the opening shift. They created dangerous opportunities in the high-danger areas at a 3-of-7 rate (43 percent) compared to Chicago's 0-for-3. The Knights' shot quality averaged 0.079 expected goals per attempt versus Chicago's 0.052, a gap rooted in positioning and execution.

Transition hockey was the difference. Vegas scored three times off the rush on 31 chances; Chicago answered with two on 23. I. Barbashev's turnover with 4 seconds left in the game led directly to M. Stone's empty-netter from 38 feet (51 percent expected goal probability), the kind of play that closes out games when one team already controls possession.

The early period set the tone. V. Olofsson's power-play snap from 36 feet opened the scoring. T. Connelly tapped in a rebound 2 seconds after his own shot to make it 2–0. J. Eichel's snap from 6 feet off another rebound made it 3–1 before Chicago scored twice—J. Greenway's wrist shot from 31 feet and P. Kane from 8 feet, both off the rush—but N. Hanifin's wrist shot from 22 feet and Stone's empty-netter closed it out.

S. Knight faced the heavier workload and stopped 32 of 36 shots at 0.889 save percentage. C. Hart allowed 2 on 26 at 0.923 save percentage. Vegas's possession dominance meant neither goaltender was tested when the game mattered most—it was decided early.

Three Stars: J. Eichel (1G, 2A), S. Theodore (2A), B. McNabb (2A).

The goals

  • VGK 0–1, 10:30 of the first on the power play. V. Olofsson, snap shot from 36 feet, a 12% chance by the model (off the rush), past S. Knight. Assists: J. Eichel, S. Theodore. Win probability moved 15 points.
  • VGK 0–2, 15:22 of the first. T. Connelly, tip-in from 6 feet, a 6% chance by the model (a rebound), past S. Knight. Assists: B. McNabb, S. Theodore. 2 seconds after a VGK shot by T. Connelly. Win probability moved 13 points.
  • CHI 1–2, 12:23 of the second. J. Greenway, wrist shot from 31 feet, a 10% chance by the model (off the rush), past C. Hart. Assists: R. Greene, W. Kaiser. Win probability moved 14 points.
  • VGK 1–3, 15:12 of the second. J. Eichel, snap shot from 6 feet, a 22% chance by the model, past S. Knight. Assists: I. Barbashev, B. McNabb. 2 seconds after a VGK blocked shot by B. Byram. Win probability moved 14 points.
  • CHI 2–3, 04:04 of the third. P. Kane, wrist shot from 9 feet, a 6% chance by the model (off the rush), past C. Hart. R. Andersson was 52 seconds into his shift for the defending side. Win probability moved 14 points.
  • VGK 2–4, 04:43 of the third. N. Hanifin, wrist shot from 22 feet, a 19% chance by the model (off the rush), past S. Knight. Assists: N. Dowd, M. Gatcomb. Win probability moved 14 points.
  • VGK 2–5, 17:27 of the third into an empty net. M. Stone, slap shot from 39 feet, a 51% chance by the model (off the rush). Assists: J. Eichel, I. Barbashev. 4 seconds after a VGK takeaway by I. Barbashev.

What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Sep 29
CHI
2
VGK
5

Golden Knights run the Blackhawks off the ice on the underlying numbers

Chances 2.5 – 5.0Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Golden Knights earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
CHI
2.52
VGK
4.97
34% of the chances66%

The board read CHI 2, VGK 5. The chances read CHI 2.5, VGK 5.0.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
VGK
+0.0
goals above expected
VGK4.97 expected · 5 scored
Expected
Scored
CHI2.52 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
The swing
+15
win-probability points
54% → 69% for VGK
VGK 100%the game, start to finish
CHI 100%P1 · P2 · P3
VGKP1 10:30 · PP

V. Olofsson makes it 0–1.

In-game win model · fitted on 5,248 games
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 10:30VGKV. OlofssonPP12%0–1
  2. P1 15:22VGKT. Connelly6%0–2
  3. P2 12:23CHIJ. Greenway10%1–2
  4. P2 15:12VGKJ. Eichel22%1–3
  5. P3 04:04CHIP. Kane6%2–3
  6. P3 04:43VGKN. Hanifin19%2–4
  7. P3 17:27VGKM. StoneEN51%2–5
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
CHI
39 shots
2
Final
90 shots
VGK
51 shots
5
CHI attackVGK attack
CHI VGK Goal
39
shots · 2 in
51
shots · 5 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
CHIVGK
0 / 3
0.61 xG
High danger
3 / 7
2.01 xG
2 / 18
1.61 xG
Medium
2 / 26
2.59 xG
0 / 27
0.29 xG
Low
0 / 30
0.38 xG

The Blackhawks went 0 for 3 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
B
C. Hart
+0.5
VGK · 24/26 · 59:57
Best save · a 22% chance, wrist from 5 ft · P3 09:15
B
S. Knight
+0.5
CHI · 32/36 · 59:47
Best save · a 41% chance, wrist from 4 ft · P2 15:45
Best skater on the ice
A+
VGK
J. Eichel
C · impact 2.71
18:01
Ice time
1–2
G – A
0.40
Own xG
71%
xG share
Impact · top 4
J. Eichel2.7A+
T. Connelly1.8A+
V. Olofsson1.6A+
N. Hanifin1.7A
Report card
CHIVGK
OffenseCA+
DefenseFC
TransitionFA+
Special teamsFA
GoaltendingBB-
DisciplineC-B-
LuckC+C+
Seven dimensions, A+ to F · basis on the breakdown
Why it went the way it went
Why VGK won
  1. 01Dangerous off the rush
  2. 02Won on the merits
  3. 03Clinical in the slot
Why CHI lost
  1. 01Rush defense leaked all night
  2. 02PDO ran cold
  3. 03Allowed 4.97 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 7 high-danger shots (2.01 xG) and 31 rush shots (3.60 xG).
Our storyline model · reasoning on the breakdown
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Golden Knights run the Blackhawks off the ice on the underlying numbers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 12 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 6–15
  1. 10:30VGKV. Olofssonpower play(J. Eichel, S. Theodore)0–1

    Snap shot from 36 feet, a 12% chance (off the rush), past S. Knight. Win probability moved 15 points.On the ice: N. Dowd, I. Barbashev, R. Andersson, P. Wotherspoon, M. Gatcomb · against P. Kane, B. Byram, S. Rinzel, O. Moore, R. Kantserov

  2. 15:22VGKT. Connelly(B. McNabb, S. Theodore)0–2

    Tip-in from 6 feet, a 6% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (a rebound), past S. Knight. 2s after a VGK shot by T. Connelly. Win probability moved 13 points.On the ice: N. Dowd, R. Andersson, P. Wotherspoon, M. Gatcomb, B. Bowman · against J. Greenway, C. Smith, W. Kaiser, R. Greene, A. Levshunov

2ndshots 6–13
  1. 12:23CHIJ. Greenway(R. Greene, W. Kaiser)1–2

    Wrist shot from 31 feet, a 10% chance (off the rush), past C. Hart. Win probability moved 14 points.On the ice: J. Greenway, C. Smith, W. Kaiser, R. Greene, A. Levshunov · against N. Dowd, R. Andersson, P. Wotherspoon, M. Gatcomb, B. Bowman

  2. 15:12VGKJ. Eichel(I. Barbashev, B. McNabb)1–3

    Snap shot from 6 feet, a 22% chance, past S. Knight. 2s after a VGK block. Win probability moved 14 points.On the ice: N. Dowd, N. Hanifin, J. Lauzon, M. Gatcomb, B. Bowman · against I. Cole, P. Kane, S. Rinzel, O. Moore, R. Kantserov

3rdshots 14–9
  1. 04:04CHIP. Kane2–3

    Wrist shot from 9 feet, a 6% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past C. Hart. R. Andersson was 52s into his shift for the defending side. Win probability moved 14 points.On the ice: I. Cole · against R. Andersson, P. Wotherspoon, B. Bowman, T. Connelly

  2. 04:43VGKN. Hanifin(N. Dowd, M. Gatcomb)2–4

    Wrist shot from 22 feet, a 19% chance (off the rush), past S. Knight. Win probability moved 14 points.

  3. 17:27VGKM. Stoneempty net(J. Eichel, I. Barbashev)2–5

    Slap shot from 39 feet, a 51% chance (off the rush). 4s after a VGK takeaway by I. Barbashev.

score reads CHI–VGK

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
4.97
VGK chances
Goals their shots were worth
+0.0
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.038
VGK puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
56.8%
Shot attempts
Over half — they had the puck more
Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.52Expected goals4.97
VGK 66% of the chance quality
26Shots on goal37
3High-danger chances7
48All attempts (Corsi)63
Adjusted for score: CHI 49% · VGK 51%
Faceoffs · VGK won52%off65%neu53%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
CHI0 / 3 · 0.61 xG
VGK3 / 7 · 2.01 xG
Medium dangermid-range
CHI2 / 18 · 1.61 xG
VGK2 / 26 · 2.59 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
CHI0 / 27 · 0.29 xG
VGK0 / 30 · 0.38 xG

VGK went 3-for-7 from high danger on 2.01 expected goals — 1.0 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
CHI
2 G · 2.52 xG · -0.5
VGK
5 G · 4.97 xG · +0.0
0123456

CHI finished -0.5 against expected, VGK +0.0.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
CHI
WRIST2/21
SLAP0/4
SNAP0/2
BACKHAND0/6
TIP IN0/4
WRAP AROUND0/1
DEFLECTED0/1
OTHER0/9
VGK
WRIST1/21
SLAP1/10
SNAP2/12
BACKHAND0/3
TIP IN1/4
WRAP AROUND0/1
DEFLECTED0/0
OTHER0/12
CHI
VGK
Off the rush
2 G on 23
1.81 xG
3 G on 31
3.60 xG
Off rebounds
0 G on 4
0.57 xG
1 G on 4
0.72 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: CHI went 2-for-21, VGK 1-for-21. VGK scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
S. Knight
CHI · 32/36 · .889
started · 59:47
+0.5
saved above expected
B
the night
Attempts faced
50
Avg chance faced
8.9%
Stopped vs expected
0.920 vs 0.911
Rebounds allowed
4 · 1 scored on
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger2/61.5-0.5
Medium2/262.6+0.6
Low0/180.4+0.4
Shorthanded1/71.1+0.1
Tips & deflections1/40.3-0.7
The save
41% chance stopped, a wrist from 4 ft · P2 15:45
The one to have back
6% chance went in, a tip-in from 6 ft · P1 15:22

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

C. Hart
VGK · 24/26 · .923
started · 59:57
+0.5
saved above expected
B
the night
Attempts faced
39
Avg chance faced
6.5%
Stopped vs expected
0.949 vs 0.935
Rebounds allowed
4
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/30.6+0.6
Medium2/181.6-0.4
Low0/180.3+0.3
Shorthanded0/40.3+0.3
Tips & deflections0/50.4+0.4
The save
22% chance stopped, a wrist from 5 ft · P3 09:15
The one to have back
6% chance went in, a wrist from 9 ft · P3 04:04

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

Every skater who dressed

Who played

Rated on what they produced and how fast

Best skater on the ice by our rating: J. Eichel (VGK), 18:01 of ice, 1-2, 71% of the expected goals while he was out.

CHI18 skaters
SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
J. GreenwayL14:081-028B
P. KaneR21:361-015C
R. GreeneC14:430-128C
W. KaiserD20:330-137C
N. LardisL11:440-026C
F. NazarC18:010-039C
R. DonatoC12:500-026D
S. RinzelD18:160-012D
T. BertuzziL16:530-038D
O. MooreC13:570-019D
B. ByramD25:080-023D
A. MangiapaneL5:230-030D
A. VlasicD20:010-027D
A. LevshunovD19:140-030F
A. FrondellC17:400-016F
R. KantserovR17:070-013F
C. SmithR15:160-030F
I. ColeD12:420-011F
VGK18 skaters
SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
J. EichelC18:011-271A+
T. ConnellyL11:221-090A+
V. OlofssonL13:571-091A+
N. HanifinD18:511-080A
I. BarbashevL14:270-261A
B. McNabbD18:450-274A
S. TheodoreD21:220-275A
M. StoneR17:111-071A
T. HertlC15:440-081B
M. GatcombC10:310-158B
J. LauzonD17:200-080B
N. DowdC12:370-158B
M. MarnerR21:210-073B
B. HowdenC17:160-091B
W. KarlssonC17:260-088C
R. AnderssonD18:460-070C
B. BowmanR10:580-060C
P. WotherspoonD20:080-057D

xG% = share of expected goals while on the ice · PD/PT = penalties drawn / taken · “in N min” = a per-60 rate far above the raw total. Impact = 0.75 G + 0.7 A1 + 0.55 A2 + 0.075 SOG + 0.05 BLK + 0.15 penalties drawn − 0.15 taken + 0.01 faceoff wins − 0.01 losses + 0.3 individual xG + 0.5 on-ice xG for − 0.5 on-ice xG against. Rating = 65% impact + 35% impact per 60, as a percentile among the skaters in this game.

Scratched, CHI: T. Teravainen, E. Del Mastro, K. Korchinski. Scratched, VGK: D. Coghlan, R. Lavoie. Referees Kyle Rehman and Graham Skilliter; linesmen Matt MacPherson and Jonny Murray.

Graded against a league-average game

Report card

Seven dimensions · A+ to F
DimensionCHIVGK
Offense
▸Basis

CHI Created 2.52 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 3 high-danger shots (0.61 xG) and 23 rush shots (1.81 xG).

VGK Created 4.97 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 7 high-danger shots (2.01 xG) and 31 rush shots (3.60 xG).

C
76
A+
100
Defense
▸Basis

CHI Allowed 4.97 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 7 high-danger shots (2.01 xG) and 31 rush shots (3.60 xG).

VGK Allowed 2.52 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 3 high-danger shots (0.61 xG) and 23 rush shots (1.81 xG).

F
37
C
74
Transition
▸Basis

CHI Rush shots 23–31, rush xG 1.81–3.60 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

VGK Rush shots 31–23, rush xG 3.60–1.81 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

F
53
A+
97
Special teams
▸Basis

CHI 0-for-2 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.33 PP xG.

VGK 1-for-3 on the power play (33%; league ≈21%) with 1.08 PP xG.

F
55
A
96
Goaltending
▸Basis

CHI +0.97 goals saved above expected on 36 shots against.

VGK +0.52 goals saved above expected on 26 shots against.

B
85
B-
80
Discipline
▸Basis

CHI Took 3 penalties for 6 PIM vs 2 for 4 on the other side.

VGK Took 2 penalties for 4 PIM vs 3 for 6 on the other side.

C-
70
B-
80
Luck

Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral

▸Basis

CHI Finishing -0.52 goals vs xG plus +0.97 GSAx of save luck = +0.45 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

VGK Finishing +0.03 goals vs xG plus +0.52 GSAx of save luck = +0.55 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

C+
79
C+
79
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
What the model flagged
WARNINGCHI

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 31 rush shots worth 3.60 xG (3 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

STRENGTHVGK

Dangerous off the rush

3 goals on 31 rush shots worth 3.60 xG.

WARNINGVGK

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 23 rush shots worth 1.81 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

STRENGTHCHI

Dangerous off the rush

2 goals on 23 rush shots worth 1.81 xG.

STRENGTHVGK

Clinical in the slot

3 goals on 7 high-danger shots (43% conversion on 2.01 xG).

STRENGTHVGK

Won on the merits

The Golden Knights controlled 66% of expected goals (4.97–2.52) and won 5-2 — result matched process.

90 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
CHI
39 shots
2
Final
90 shots
VGK
51 shots
5
CHI attackVGK attack
CHI VGK Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — CHI left, VGK right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
J. Eichel
#9 · C · VGK
1 G · 2 A · 2 SOG · 18:01 on ice · +1
S. Theodore
#27 · D · VGK
0 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 21:22 on ice · +2
B. McNabb
#3 · D · VGK
0 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 18:45 on ice · +2
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Tue, Sep 29
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelSep 29, 11:18 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Vegas should win. The model projects a 2.7 to 3.5 game with the Golden Knights at 63% win probability. The advantage stems from one source: underlying play. Vegas controls shot attempts at 52.3% Corsi, a gap that translates to more time attacking. The Golden Knights' expected-goals advantage of 54.5% to 43.5% compounds that edge.

Tomas Hertl drives Vegas's offense at 1.46 expected goals per 60 minutes, carrying 5 goals and 34 assists with 12 high-danger goals—the highest xG/60 rate on Vegas's roster. He's accumulated 57 high-danger shot attempts. If Chicago's shutdown assignment can't collapse and protect the slot, Vegas opens a scoring advantage before puck drop.

Mark Stone supplies 14 goals, 45 assists, and 15 high-danger goals at 1.25 expected goals per 60 minutes.

Arvid Soderblom is Chicago's liability. Over 26 games, he's minus-10.7 goals saved above expected—he's leaking goals consistently. Chicago's defensive profile reads hard to score on only because the team runs 0.996 PDO (barely lucky), not because Soderblom performs at an elite level.

The goaltending gap widens Vegas's advantage. S. Knight has posted plus-11.7 goals saved above expected over 55 games at 90.2% save percentage. C. Hart owns minus-5.6 goals above expected over 18 starts at 89.1%—a gap of 17.2 goals in Vegas's favor this season.

Vegas's PDO sits cold at 0.983, though, which means the Golden Knights are underperforming their underlying play and due for positive regression. Chicago's 0.996 PDO is barely lucky, but that variance works against them when it reverses—meaning Vegas's theoretical edge compresses somewhat when luck normalizes.

Tyler Bertuzzi carries Chicago's offense with 1.08 expected goals per 60, 20 goals, 26 assists, and 12 high-danger goals on a 12.2% shooting rate. Anton Frondell sits at 1.06 expected goals per 60 despite just 3 goals, 6 assists, and 1 high-danger goal—tight shooting luck that can't sustain.

Vegas should escape, but Chicago's variance edge and the pronounced goaltending gap compress the model's prediction into a more realistic margin than the Golden Knights' underlying dominance alone suggests.

Season rates in this preview are from 2025-26 — this season's sample isn't live yet.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

VGK 63%
63%
VGK
Model favorite
37%
63%
CHI50VGK

VGK by 26 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score CHI 2.7–3.5 VGK; 16% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
CHI← edge
edge →VGK
43.5%54.5%
46.0%52.3%
2.623.26
3.402.71
2.563.22
3.292.95
0.9960.983

VGK holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.996 vs 0.983) says CHI has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · No games yet
CHI
0-0-0
+0 GD · 0d rest
VGK
0-0-0
+0 GD · 0d rest
0.996
CHI PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.983
VGK PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

STRENGTHVGK

Tomas Hertl drives the Golden Knights offense

Tomas Hertl: 5G 34A, 1.46 xG/60, 12 high-danger goals.

TACTICALCHI

Shutdown Assignment: Blackhawks

Highest individual xG/60 on VGK. Gets 57 HD shots. Limit slot access.

Key matchup: Neutralize Tomas Hertl (5G, 1.46 xG/60, 12 HD goals)

WARNINGCHI

Arvid Soderblom has leaked goals all season

Arvid Soderblom: -10.7 GSAx over 26 games.

Shoot from everywhere — volume beats a cold crease.

WARNINGCHI

Exploitable minutes: Anton Frondell

Anton Frondell is on ice for 3.02 xGA/60 and 9 high-danger shots against this season.

Hunt matchups against Anton Frondell's shifts with the top line.

Where the edges live
  • The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.5% 5v5 xG vs 43.5%.
  • The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.3% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
  • The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
  • The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.5% 5v5 xG vs 43.5%.
  • The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.3% — expect territorial tilt.
  • Goalie matchup: S. Knight (+11.7 GSAx in 55 GP, 90.2% SV) vs C. Hart (-5.6 GSAx in 18 GP, 89.1% SV).
  • S. Knight has the GSAx edge — 17.2 goals above his counterpart this season.
  • The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
CHI
preseason · vs STL · Sat, Sep 26
Expected in goal
S. Knight
2 days rest.935 last start60:00 played
Backup Arvid Soderblom · -10.7 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
  • R. Donato14:31
  • O. Moore15:07
  • A. Frondell22:04
  • R. Greene14:26
  • C. Smith10:12
  • D. Toninato08:25
  • A. Mangiapane15:18
  • D. Boucher07:58
  • T. Bertuzzi19:49
  • N. Lardis14:32
  • R. Kantserov16:07
  • T. Teravainen15:49
Defence · 6
  • S. Rinzel15:35
  • B. Byram26:27
  • I. Cole17:57
  • E. Del Mastro13:56
  • A. Levshunov17:53
  • A. Vlasic21:54
VGK
preseason · vs SJS · Sat, Sep 26
Expected in goal
C. Hart
2 days rest.750 last start57:44 played
Backup Akira Schmid · -2.1 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
  • J. Eichel22:37
  • M. Gatcomb10:58
  • B. Howden11:03
  • T. Connelly14:05
  • N. Dowd11:18
  • B. Bowman14:54
  • T. Hertl17:10
  • I. Barbashev12:15
  • M. Stone18:54
  • W. Karlsson18:55
  • M. Marner21:33
  • V. Olofsson13:39
Defence · 6
  • B. McNabb18:17
  • R. Andersson19:30
  • J. Lauzon15:06
  • N. Hanifin16:29
  • S. Theodore22:08
  • P. Wotherspoon18:33

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
CHI
Tyler Bertuzzi20G 26A
1.08 xG/60 · 12 HD · 12.2% sh
Anton Frondell3G 6A
1.06 xG/60 · 1 HD · 8.3% sh
VGK
Tomas Hertl5G 34A
1.46 xG/60 · 12 HD · 2.5% sh
Mark Stone14G 45A
1.25 xG/60 · 15 HD · 10.8% sh
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