Dangerous off the rush
6 goals on 28 rush shots worth 2.96 xG.

The Penguins' rush game was too much for Philadelphia, earning Pittsburgh a 7-0 shutout with metrics that explained the blowout.
The Flyers underperformed their expected goals by 1.97, scoring nothing despite a modest offensive volume. The Penguins overperformed by 2.25, converting rush chances with clinical efficiency. Pittsburgh built its attack on transition chances: six of seven goals came from the rush.
The Penguins controlled 71% of expected goals, a dominance built on relentless forward pressure. A. Silovs made 19 saves and stopped 1.97 goals above expected.
The Penguins' shot quality was decisive: they generated 0.077 expected goals per shot while Philadelphia managed 0.042.
N. Robertson and V. Koivunen scored in the first period. The second period was relentless, with E. Malkin on the power play, H. Lapierre, and F. Hallander scoring in rapid succession to reach 5-0. N. Robertson added a shorthanded goal in the third, and E. Chinakhov finished with a power-play tip-in.
High-danger chances finished 7-2 Pittsburgh.
Three Stars
What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.
Penguins shut out the Flyers, 7-0
The Penguins earned this one.
The board read PIT 7, PHI 0. The chances read PIT 4.8, PHI 2.0.
The Penguins scored 2.3 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.
N. Robertson makes it 1–0.
High-danger looks: PIT 1 of 7, PHI 0 of 2.
Penguins shut out the Flyers, 7-0
A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.
Read the full breakdownTip-in from 16 feet, a 5% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past D. Vladar. Win probability moved 15 points.On the ice: S. Crosby, E. Karlsson, R. Rakell, N. Robertson, D. Carlile · against C. Dvorak, T. Konecny, C. York, J. Drysdale, T. Foerster
Backhander from 10 feet, a 14% chance (off the rush), past D. Vladar. Win probability moved 14 points.On the ice: S. Girard, F. Hallander, K. Korczak, H. Lapierre, V. Koivunen · against C. Dvorak, T. Konecny, C. York, J. Drysdale, T. Foerster
Slap shot from 31 feet, an 8% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past D. Vladar. Win probability moved 9 points.On the ice: S. Girard, C. Dewar, B. Lizotte, K. Korczak, E. Soderblom · against N. Cates, S. Benoit, J. Drysdale, A. Bump, M. Michkov
Snap shot from 23 feet, a 20% chance (off the rush), past D. Vladar. 10s after a PHI hit by N. Acciari.On the ice: E. Malkin, T. Novak, S. Girard, K. Korczak, E. Chinakhov · against N. Seeler, C. Dvorak, T. Konecny, S. Benoit, T. Foerster
Wrist shot from 7 feet, a 14% chance, past D. Vladar. 5s after a PIT shot by K. Korczak.On the ice: E. Malkin, T. Novak, S. Girard, K. Korczak, E. Chinakhov · against N. Seeler, N. Acciari, N. Cates, S. Benoit, A. Bump
Snap shot from 27 feet, a 14% chance (off the rush), past D. Vladar.On the ice: R. Rakell, T. van Riemsdyk, E. Chinakhov, D. Carlile · against C. Dvorak, T. Konecny, O. Tippett, C. York, A. Bump
Tip-in from 9 feet, an 11% chance (off the rush), past D. Vladar.On the ice: E. Malkin, T. van Riemsdyk, N. Robertson, H. Lapierre, D. Carlile · against N. Seeler, S. Benoit, T. Zegras, A. Bump, P. Martone
score reads PIT–PHI
PIT went 5-for-23 from medium danger on 2.68 expected goals — 2.3 above expected.
PIT finished +2.3 against expected, PHI -2.0.
Snap shots carried the volume: PIT went 2-for-25, PHI 0-for-5. PIT scored 6 of theirs off the rush.
Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.
The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →
A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5
A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5
Best skater on the ice by our rating: F. Hallander (PIT), 10:55 of ice, 1-2, 69% of the expected goals while he was out.
| Skater | TOI | G-A | SOG | ixG | xG% | PD/PT | Impact | /60 | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. HallanderC | 10:55 | 1-2 | 3 | 0.60 | 69 | 1/0 | 2.94 | 16.16 | A+ |
| N. RobertsonL | 15:02 | 2-0 | 4 | 0.47 | 78 | 1/1 | 2.52 | 10.05 | A+ |
| H. LapierreC | 13:02 | 1-1 | 1 | 0.20 | 88 | 1/0 | 2.35 | 10.84 | A+ |
| S. GirardD | 21:02 | 0-2 | 2 | 0.28 | 72 | 1/0 | 2.20 | 6.28 | A |
| K. KorczakD | 18:31 | 0-2 | 3 | 0.15 | 73 | 0/0 | 2.05 | 6.66 | A |
| K. LetangD | 18:44 | 0-1 | 4 | 0.29 | 91 | 0/0 | 1.82 | 5.84 | A |
| V. KoivunenR | 13:50 | 1-0 | 2 | 0.20 | 78 | 0/0 | 1.46 | 6.32 | A |
| R. RakellR | 18:32 | 0-1 | 2 | 0.48 | 77 | 1/0 | 1.59 | 5.15 | A |
| E. MalkinC | 15:47 | 1-0 | 2 | 0.14 | 82 | 0/0 | 1.50 | 5.70 | B |
| S. CrosbyC | 17:39 | 0-1 | 3 | 0.60 | 83 | 0/0 | 1.55 | 5.27 | B |
| E. KarlssonD | 19:59 | 0-1 | 3 | 0.04 | 73 | 0/0 | 1.37 | 4.10 | B |
| E. ChinakhovR | 16:58 | 1-0 | 3 | 0.25 | 65 | 0/0 | 1.30 | 4.60 | B |
| B. LizotteC | 13:13 | 0-0 | 4 | 0.54 | 60 | 0/0 | 0.70 | 3.17 | B |
| T. NovakC | 16:04 | 0-1 | 0 | 0.00 | 70 | 0/0 | 0.69 | 2.60 | B |
| D. CarlileD | 16:30 | 0-1 | 2 | 0.14 | 60 | 0/2 | 0.68 | 2.46 | B |
| T. van RiemsdykD | 20:42 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 64 | 0/0 | 0.60 | 1.75 | C |
| C. DewarC | 14:51 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.24 | 65 | 0/1 | 0.16 | 0.66 | C |
| E. SoderblomL | 12:39 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.11 | 48 | 0/0 | 0.02 | 0.09 | C |
| Skater | TOI | G-A | SOG | ixG | xG% | PD/PT | Impact | /60 | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. BumpL | 14:39 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.05 | 44 | 2/0 | 0.31 | 1.27 | C |
| N. AcciariC | 15:20 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.30 | 50 | 0/0 | 0.30 | 1.16 | C |
| C. DvorakC | 14:58 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.45 | 40 | 0/0 | 0.22 | 0.88 | C |
| O. TippettR | 14:11 | 0-0 | 4 | 0.20 | 35 | 0/0 | 0.11 | 0.45 | C |
| C. YorkD | 21:08 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.06 | 45 | 0/0 | 0.05 | 0.15 | C |
| M. MichkovR | 15:47 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.25 | 40 | 0/0 | -0.04 | -0.15 | D |
| T. FoersterR | 17:08 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.13 | 36 | 0/0 | -0.17 | -0.59 | D |
| T. KonecnyR | 14:47 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.10 | 40 | 0/1 | -0.16 | -0.67 | D |
| N. CatesL | 14:17 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.00 | 26 | 0/0 | -0.18 | -0.76 | D |
| J. DrysdaleD | 17:21 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 42 | 0/1 | -0.29 | -1.00 | D |
| C. GrundstromR | 12:01 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.21 | 25 | 0/0 | -0.27 | -1.36 | D |
| T. ZegrasC | 16:25 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.11 | 25 | 0/0 | -0.45 | -1.65 | D |
| S. BenoitD | 18:29 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 9 | 2/1 | -0.48 | -1.57 | D |
| S. CouturierC | 15:04 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 18 | 0/0 | -0.49 | -1.95 | F |
| T. SanheimD | 20:15 | 0-0 | 3 | 0.04 | 15 | 0/0 | -0.64 | -1.89 | F |
| R. RistolainenD | 17:40 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.05 | 19 | 0/0 | -0.64 | -2.16 | F |
| N. SeelerD | 19:54 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 13 | 0/1 | -0.74 | -2.23 | F |
| P. MartoneR | 14:05 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 19 | 0/1 | -0.91 | -3.86 | F |
xG% = share of expected goals while on the ice · PD/PT = penalties drawn / taken · “in N min” = a per-60 rate far above the raw total. Impact = 0.75 G + 0.7 A1 + 0.55 A2 + 0.075 SOG + 0.05 BLK + 0.15 penalties drawn − 0.15 taken + 0.01 faceoff wins − 0.01 losses + 0.3 individual xG + 0.5 on-ice xG for − 0.5 on-ice xG against. Rating = 65% impact + 35% impact per 60, as a percentile among the skaters in this game.
Scratched, PIT: D. Gustafsson, I. Solovyov, R. McGroarty. Scratched, PHI: G. Wilson, D. Jiricek, N. Grebenkin. Referees Frederick L'Ecuyer and Justin Kea; linesmen Scott Cherrey and Julien Fournier.
PIT Created 4.75 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 7 high-danger shots (1.53 xG) and 28 rush shots (2.96 xG).
PHI Created 1.97 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 2 high-danger shots (0.43 xG) and 19 rush shots (1.36 xG).
PIT Allowed 1.97 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 2 high-danger shots (0.43 xG) and 19 rush shots (1.36 xG).
PHI Allowed 4.75 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 7 high-danger shots (1.53 xG) and 28 rush shots (2.96 xG).
PIT Rush shots 28–19, rush xG 2.96–1.36 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
PHI Rush shots 19–28, rush xG 1.36–2.96 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
PIT 2-for-4 on the power play (50%; league ≈21%) with 0.63 PP xG.
PHI 0-for-3 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.92 PP xG.
PIT +1.97 goals saved above expected on 19 shots against.
PHI -2.25 goals saved above expected on 38 shots against.
PIT Took 4 penalties for 8 PIM vs 5 for 10 on the other side.
PHI Took 5 penalties for 10 PIM vs 4 for 8 on the other side.
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
PIT Finishing +2.25 goals vs xG plus +1.97 GSAx of save luck = +4.22 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
PHI Finishing -1.97 goals vs xG plus -2.25 GSAx of save luck = -4.22 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
6 goals on 28 rush shots worth 2.96 xG.
Gave up 28 rush shots worth 2.96 xG (6 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
D. Vladar allowed 7 on 38 shots (0.816) — 2.25 goals worse than expected.
Reassess the crease rotation before the next start.
Single-game PDO of 0.887 — the bounces went against them tonight.
Single-game PDO of 1.113 — the bounces went their way tonight.
The Penguins controlled 71% of expected goals (4.75–1.97) and won 7-0 — result matched process.
Each club shoots toward its own end — PIT left, PHI right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.
Pittsburgh barely wins this coin flip. The model projects a 3.3 to 3.1 Penguins victory with a 52% win probability — as close to a pick'em as the numbers get. This is a matchup where the better team doesn't win by margin, but by execution.
Pittsburgh owns the underlying play. The Penguins claim 62.2% of expected goals at even strength against Philadelphia's 30.8%, a chasm that usually decides playoff series. They drive 52.4% of shot attempts, territorial control that wears down opponents over sixty minutes. Philadelphia survives by winning their moments rather than stealing puck time — their shot attempts hover at 33.7%.
The risk is regression. Pittsburgh's PDO sits at 1.071, meaning the Penguins are converting at an unsustainable clip and allowing less than their workload should permit. Philadelphia, by contrast, sits at 0.992, running closer to their underlying numbers. Regression cuts both ways, and Pittsburgh is the side most likely to regress down toward normal.
Goaltending tips toward Pittsburgh. A. Silovs carries a minus-0.6 expected goals against average over two starts with an 88.6% save percentage, closer to normal than his team's overall dominance. A. Kolosov gets the other net. Silovs' numbers suggest Pittsburgh's deployment edge matters more than goaltending luck on this particular night.
The Penguins have scored five goals on 49 slot shots (10%) against Philadelphia's three goals on 35 (9%). Marginal edges are what close games are made of. Deny Pittsburgh that real estate and the math shifts.
PIT by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score PIT 3.3–3.1 PHI; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
PIT holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.071 vs 0.992) says PIT has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
The Penguins own the underlying play — 62.2% 5v5 xG vs 30.8%.
The Penguins drive Corsi at 52.4% — expect territorial tilt.
The Penguins' PDO is 1.071 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Win probability splits 48%–52% — margins decide this one.
No completed game on file for this club yet.
No completed game on file for this club yet.
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.