Motion-blurred skater in a Toronto Maple Leafs sweater

Breakdown · NYI at TOR

Maple Leafs hold off the Islanders

FinalWed, Sep 30

NYINew York Islanders1 TORToronto Maple Leafs2

The verdict · coin flip

The Maple Leafs won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

NYI 1 · TOR 2

◆ By the ModelOct 8, 5:32 AMxG: xgboost-0.765Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Maple Leafs beat the Islanders 2–1, but the expected-goals model said the Islanders deserved better. The Islanders held the edge in expected goals, 3.28 to 3.12. Both teams underperformed their chances, and A. Stolarz — who saved 2.28 more goals than expected — made that shortfall decide the game.

E. Cowan led the Maple Leafs with one goal and one assist in 13:23 of ice time. C. Sissons opened the scoring at 07:14 of the first on a 7% chance, a low-probability tip-in from 11 feet. E. Cowan doubled the lead on the power play at 11:55, redirecting a rebound chance from 7 feet that the model valued at 14%.

E. Heineman scored shorthanded for the Islanders at 14:09 of the third, his snap shot from 14 feet representing a 40% chance off the rush. Assisted by B. Horvat, it pulled them within one.

A. Stolarz stopped 26 of 27 shots at a 0.963 save percentage, 2.28 goals better than expected. I. Sorokin made 24 saves on 26 shots at 0.923 save percentage, overperforming by 1.12 goals but unable to steal it.

The Maple Leafs manufactured higher-danger looks, averaging 0.065 expected goals per shot against the Islanders' 0.048. Both teams wasted rebound opportunities — three each went unconverted — but the Maple Leafs cashed the power play when it mattered. The Maple Leafs underperformed their expected goals by 1.12; the Islanders underperformed theirs by 2.28. Neither finished clean, but one goalie did.

The goals

TOR 0–1, 07:14 of the first. C. Sissons, tip-in from 11 feet, a 7% chance by the model, past I. Sorokin. Assists: N. Paul, E. Cowan. 9 seconds after a TOR missed shot by C. Sissons. Win probability moved 15 points.
TOR 0–2, 11:55 of the first on the power play. E. Cowan, wrist shot from 7 feet, a 14% chance by the model (a rebound), past I. Sorokin. Assists: J. Roslovic, M. Rielly. 2 seconds after a TOR shot by J. Roslovic. Win probability moved 12 points.
NYI 1–2, 14:09 of the third shorthanded. E. Heineman, snap shot from 14 feet, a 41% chance by the model (off the rush), past A. Stolarz. Assists: B. Horvat. Win probability moved 10 points.

What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Sep 30

NYI

TOR

Maple Leafs hold off the Islanders

Chances 3.3 – 3.1Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Maple Leafs took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value

NYI

3.28

TOR

3.12

51% of the chances49%

The board read NYI 1, TOR 2. The chances read NYI 3.3, TOR 3.1.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

TOR

−1.1

goals above expected

TOR3.12 expected · 2 scored

Expected

Scored

NYI3.28 expected · 1 scored

Expected

Scored

The Islanders left 2.3 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

The swing

+15

win-probability points

54% → 69% for TOR

TOR 100%the game, start to finish

NYI 100%P1 · P2 · P3

TORP1 07:14

C. Sissons makes it 0–1.

In-game win model · fitted on 5,248 games

Every goal, in order

P1 07:14TORC. Sissons7%0–1
P1 11:55TORE. CowanPP14%0–2
P3 14:09NYIE. HeinemanSH41%1–2

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

NYI

46 shots

Final

83 shots

TOR

37 shots

NYI TOR GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 1 in

shots · 2 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

NYITOR

1 / 4

1.11 xG

High danger

0 / 3

0.60 xG

0 / 17

1.77 xG

Medium

2 / 23

2.28 xG

0 / 47

0.40 xG

Low

0 / 22

0.24 xG

High-danger looks: NYI 1 of 4, TOR 0 of 3.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

A. Stolarz

+2.3

TOR · 26/27 · 58:22

Best save · a 32% chance, backhand from 4 ft · P1 18:43

B+

I. Sorokin

+1.0

NYI · 24/26 · 57:56

Best save · a 22% chance, wrist from 19 ft · P2 18:12

Best skater on the ice

A+

TOR

E. Cowan

R · impact 1.76

13:23

Ice time

1–1

G – A

0.19

Own xG

58%

xG share

Impact · top 4

E. Cowan1.8A+

J. Roslovic1.4A+

C. Sissons1.2A+

B. Horvat1.3A

Report card

NYITOR

OffenseB+B

DefenseDD-

TransitionC+C-

Special teamsFB-

GoaltendingBA+

DisciplineCC

LuckDB

Seven dimensions, A+ to F · basis on the breakdown

Why it went the way it went

Why TOR won

01A. Stolarz stole it
02Dangerous off the rush
03Power play cashed in

Why NYI lost

01Cold finishing night
02Rush defense leaked all night
03Power play came up empty

Our storyline model · reasoning on the breakdown

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Maple Leafs hold off the Islanders

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 12 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 11–10

07:14TORC. Sissons(N. Paul, E. Cowan)0–1
Tip-in from 11 feet, a 7% chance, a shot that rarely goes in, past I. Sorokin. 9s after a TOR miss by C. Sissons. Win probability moved 15 points.On the ice: C. Tanev, J. McCabe, J. Roslovic, A. Matthews, K. Marchenko · against B. Schenn, A. Pelech, M. Maccelli, C. Ritchie, M. Schaefer
11:55TORE. Cowanpower play(J. Roslovic, M. Rielly)0–2
Wrist shot from 7 feet, a 14% chance (a rebound), past I. Sorokin. 2s after a TOR shot by J. Roslovic. Win probability moved 12 points.On the ice: O. Ekman-Larsson, T. Blueger, T. Stecher, B. Duhaime, B. Groulx · against B. Schenn, T. DeAngelo, M. Maccelli, C. Ritchie, M. Schaefer

2ndshots 8–12no goals

3rdshots 8–4

14:09NYIE. Heinemanshorthanded(B. Horvat)1–2
Snap shot from 14 feet, a 41% chance (off the rush), past A. Stolarz. Win probability moved 10 points.On the ice: J. Pageau, L. Stanley, A. Romanov, S. Holmstrom · against M. Rielly, N. Paul, J. Roslovic, E. Cowan, G. McKenna

score reads NYI–TOR

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

3.12

TOR chances

Goals their shots were worth

−1.1

Finishing

Goals below what those chances were worth

1.027

TOR puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

41.4%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.28Expected goals3.12

NYI 51% of the chance quality

27Shots on goal26

4High-danger chances3

68All attempts (Corsi)48

Adjusted for score: NYI 65% · TOR 35%

Faceoffs · TOR won70%off50%neu57%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

NYI1 / 4 · 1.11 xG

TOR0 / 3 · 0.60 xG

Medium dangermid-range

NYI0 / 17 · 1.77 xG

TOR2 / 23 · 2.28 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

NYI0 / 47 · 0.40 xG

TOR0 / 22 · 0.24 xG

NYI went 0-for-17 from medium danger on 1.77 expected goals — 1.8 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

NYI

1 G · 3.28 xG · -2.3

TOR

2 G · 3.12 xG · -1.1

01234

NYI finished -2.3 against expected, TOR -1.1.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

NYI

WRIST0/20

SNAP1/10

TIP IN0/6

BACKHAND0/6

SLAP0/4

OTHER0/22

TOR

WRIST1/20

SNAP0/3

TIP IN1/5

BACKHAND0/4

SLAP0/5

OTHER0/11

NYI

TOR

Off the rush

1 G on 26

2.63 xG

0 G on 26

2.36 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 3

0.24 xG

1 G on 3

0.38 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: NYI went 0-for-20, TOR 1-for-20.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

I. Sorokin

NYI · 24/26 · .923

started · 57:56 · loss

+1.0

saved above expected

B+

the night

Attempts faced: 36
Avg chance faced: 8.4%
Stopped vs expected: 0.944 vs 0.916
Rebounds allowed: 3 · 1 scored on

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/30.6+0.6

Medium2/222.2+0.2

Low0/110.2+0.2

Shorthanded1/121.2+0.2

Tips & deflections1/50.3-0.7

The save

22% chance stopped, a wrist from 19 ft · P2 18:12

The one to have back

7% chance went in, a tip-in from 11 ft · P1 07:14

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

A. Stolarz

TOR · 26/27 · .963

started · 58:22 · win

+2.3

saved above expected

the night

Attempts faced: 44
Avg chance faced: 7.5%
Stopped vs expected: 0.977 vs 0.925
Rebounds allowed: 3

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/41.1+0.1

Medium0/171.8+1.8

Low0/230.4+0.4

Shorthanded0/80.8+0.8

Tips & deflections0/50.3+0.3

The save

32% chance stopped, a backhand from 4 ft · P1 18:43

The one to have back

41% chance went in, a snap from 14 ft · P3 14:09

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

Every skater who dressed

Who played

Rated on what they produced and how fast

Best skater on the ice by our rating: E. Cowan (TOR), 13:23 of ice, 1-1, 58% of the expected goals while he was out.

NYI18 skaters

Skater	TOI	G-A	SOG	ixG	xG%	PD/PT	Impact	/60	Grade
B. HorvatC	22:31	0-1	4	0.24	53	1/0	1.26	3.37	A
E. HeinemanL	13:26	1-0	1	0.47	57	0/0	1.04	4.67	A
A. DuclairL	12:17	0-0	4	0.48	71	0/0	0.74	3.63	A
K. PalmieriC	18:35	0-0	4	0.70	54	0/0	0.67	2.15	B
T. DeAngeloD	17:14	0-0	0	0.06	56	1/0	0.37	1.28	B
V. EklundR	11:58	0-0	2	0.42	71	0/1	0.31	1.56	B
C. CizikasC	9:29	0-0	0	0.00	60	1/0	0.27	1.68	C
O. PalatL	10:06	0-0	2	0.11	56	0/0	0.24	1.44	C
C. RitchieC	16:03	0-0	2	0.11	43	1/0	0.28	1.04	C
M. SchaeferD	27:45	0-0	3	0.13	55	0/1	0.28	0.60	C
A. RomanovD	17:09	0-0	2	0.07	48	0/0	0.23	0.81	C
S. HolmstromR	20:17	0-0	0	0.12	55	0/0	0.17	0.52	C
A. PelechD	19:51	0-0	0	0.04	52	0/0	0.10	0.31	D
J. PageauC	13:50	0-0	1	0.01	49	0/0	0.07	0.29	D
M. MaccelliL	17:39	0-0	1	0.14	56	0/1	0.06	0.20	D
R. PulockD	16:27	0-0	0	0.14	30	0/0	-0.10	-0.36	D
L. StanleyD	15:06	0-0	0	0.01	41	0/0	-0.15	-0.58	F
B. SchennC	14:27	0-0	1	0.04	37	0/1	-0.25	-1.02	F

TOR18 skaters

Skater	TOI	G-A	SOG	ixG	xG%	PD/PT	Impact	/60	Grade
E. CowanR	13:23	1-1	3	0.19	58	0/0	1.76	7.89	A+
J. RoslovicC	14:53	0-1	2	0.47	71	0/0	1.41	5.69	A+
C. SissonsC	11:22	1-0	2	0.67	49	0/0	1.20	6.34	A+
N. PaulL	15:43	0-1	1	0.18	50	1/1	0.84	3.20	A
A. MatthewsC	20:04	0-0	1	0.24	91	0/0	0.85	2.55	A
M. RiellyD	19:49	0-1	1	0.07	49	0/0	0.67	2.02	B
K. MarchenkoR	18:16	0-0	3	0.35	73	0/1	0.58	1.91	B
D. RaddyshD	20:36	0-0	4	0.17	56	0/0	0.50	1.45	B
B. GroulxC	9:49	0-0	1	0.01	61	1/0	0.28	1.71	B
B. DuhaimeL	14:39	0-0	2	0.06	37	1/0	0.31	1.26	C
O. Ekman-LarssonD	15:30	0-0	2	0.12	50	0/0	0.24	0.94	C
J. McCabeD	20:19	0-0	1	0.01	50	0/1	0.17	0.50	D
T. StecherD	16:05	0-0	0	0.00	51	0/0	0.01	0.04	D
W. NylanderR	17:29	0-0	1	0.22	36	0/0	-0.09	-0.32	D
T. BluegerC	12:32	0-0	0	0.06	29	0/0	-0.11	-0.53	D
J. TavaresC	16:58	0-0	1	0.22	33	1/1	-0.15	-0.55	F
C. TanevD	20:39	0-0	0	0.00	34	0/0	-0.20	-0.60	F
G. McKennaL	15:32	0-0	1	0.06	36	0/0	-0.21	-0.81	F

xG% = share of expected goals while on the ice · PD/PT = penalties drawn / taken · “in N min” = a per-60 rate far above the raw total. Impact = 0.75 G + 0.7 A1 + 0.55 A2 + 0.075 SOG + 0.05 BLK + 0.15 penalties drawn − 0.15 taken + 0.01 faceoff wins − 0.01 losses + 0.3 individual xG + 0.5 on-ice xG for − 0.5 on-ice xG against. Rating = 65% impact + 35% impact per 60, as a percentile among the skaters in this game.

Scratched, NYI: S. Mayfield, K. MacLean, M. Kessel. Scratched, TOR: Z. MacEwen, N. Blankenburg. Referees Trevor Hanson and Brandon Blandina; linesmen Brandon Gawryletz and Kiel Murchison.

Graded against a league-average game

Report card

Seven dimensions · A+ to F

DimensionNYITOR

Offense

▸Basis

NYI Created 3.28 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 4 high-danger shots (1.11 xG) and 26 rush shots (2.63 xG).

TOR Created 3.12 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 3 high-danger shots (0.60 xG) and 26 rush shots (2.36 xG).

B+

Defense

▸Basis

NYI Allowed 3.12 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 3 high-danger shots (0.60 xG) and 26 rush shots (2.36 xG).

TOR Allowed 3.28 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 4 high-danger shots (1.11 xG) and 26 rush shots (2.63 xG).

D-

Transition

▸Basis

NYI Rush shots 26–26, rush xG 2.63–2.36 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

TOR Rush shots 26–26, rush xG 2.36–2.63 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

C+

C-

Special teams

▸Basis

NYI 0-for-4 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.51 PP xG.

TOR 1-for-4 on the power play (25%; league ≈21%) with 0.86 PP xG.

B-

Goaltending

▸Basis

NYI +1.12 goals saved above expected on 26 shots against.

TOR +2.28 goals saved above expected on 27 shots against.

A+

Discipline

▸Basis

NYI Took 4 penalties for 8 PIM vs 4 for 8 on the other side.

TOR Took 4 penalties for 8 PIM vs 4 for 8 on the other side.

Luck

Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral

▸Basis

NYI Finishing -2.28 goals vs xG plus +1.12 GSAx of save luck = -1.16 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

TOR Finishing -1.12 goals vs xG plus +2.28 GSAx of save luck = +1.16 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately

What the model flagged

STRENGTHTOR

A. Stolarz stole it

A. Stolarz stopped 26 of 27 (0.963) — +2.28 goals saved above expected in a 1-goal game.

WARNINGTOR

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 26 rush shots worth 2.63 xG (1 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

STRENGTHNYI

Dangerous off the rush

1 goals on 26 rush shots worth 2.63 xG.

LUCKNYI

Cold finishing night

Scored 1 on 3.28 xG — -2.28 vs expected. The looks were there; the finish will come back.

WARNINGNYI

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 26 rush shots worth 2.36 xG (0 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

STRENGTHTOR

Dangerous off the rush

0 goals on 26 rush shots worth 2.36 xG.

83 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

NYI

46 shots

Final

83 shots

TOR

37 shots

NYI TOR GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — NYI left, TOR right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

E. Cowan

#53 · R · TOR

1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 13:23 on ice · +1

B. Horvat

#14 · C · NYI

0 G · 1 A · 4 SOG · 22:31 on ice · +1

M. Rielly

#44 · D · TOR

0 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 19:49 on ice

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

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