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Motion-blurred skater in a Colorado Avalanche sweater
← Wed, Sep 30 · the slate
Breakdown · LAK at COL

Avalanche pull away from the Kings

FinalWed, Sep 30
LAKLos Angeles Kings4COLColorado Avalanche8
The verdict · earned

The Avalanche earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

LAK 4 · COL 8
◆ By the ModelOct 4, 5:36 AMxG: xgboost-0.765Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Colorado beat Los Angeles 8-4, but the underlying numbers suggested this should have been a one-goal game. The Kings' atrocious goaltending and the Avalanche's clinical finishing in dangerous areas transformed what looked like a coin flip into a rout.

Colorado's superiority came down to shot quality, not volume. They generated seven high-danger chances to Los Angeles' two and went 6-for-25 on the rush; the Kings managed only 4-for-31. Both teams created three rebound opportunities, but Colorado converted two and Los Angeles none.

The goaltending chasm. D. Kuemper (LAK) stopped 21 of 29 shots at 0.724 save percentage — 4.36 goals worse than expected. M. Blackwood (COL) was 1.08 goals short of expected on 27 saves. One goaltender got shelled; the other simply played below his workload.

The power play. Colorado struck twice in the opening ten minutes on the man advantage: B. Nelson snapping home from the rush at 6:33 (14% expected), and N. MacKinnon from the rush at 00:23 of the second (32% expected). Los Angeles answered shorthanded, but the deficit never narrowed.

The turning point. A. Lehkonen's snap shot from 19 feet at 18:34 of the second put Colorado up 5-2 on the power play (20% expected). That was the fourth goal in six minutes — the game's dagger.

Three Stars. B. Nelson (COL, 1G, 2A, 19:14). D. Toews (COL, 2A, 20:04). A. Lehkonen (COL, 2G, 19:27).

The goals

  • COL 0–1, 06:33 of the first on the power play. B. Nelson, snap shot from 18 feet, a 14% chance by the model (off the rush), past D. Kuemper. Assists: J. Schwartz, N. Kadri. D. Kuemper was 393 seconds into his shift for the defending side. Win probability moved 14 points.
  • LAK 1–1, 15:14 of the first. B. Dumoulin, wrist shot from 43 feet, a 1% chance by the model (off the rush), past M. Blackwood. Assists: A. Laferriere, A. Turcotte. Win probability moved 17 points.
  • COL 1–2, 17:58 of the first. P. Kelly, snap shot from 33 feet, a 9% chance by the model (off the rush), past D. Kuemper. Assists: J. Manson. 9 seconds after a LAK missed shot by A. Laferriere. D. Kuemper was 457 seconds into his shift for the defending side. Win probability moved 17 points.
  • COL 1–3, 00:23 of the second on the power play. N. MacKinnon, snap shot from 32 feet, a 32% chance by the model (off the rush), past D. Kuemper. Assists: N. Kadri, C. Makar. Win probability moved 13 points.
  • LAK 2–3, 01:28 of the second shorthanded. J. Armia, wrist shot from 41 feet, a 1% chance by the model (off the rush), past M. Blackwood. Assists: E. Haula, C. Ceci. 10 seconds after a COL giveaway by N. MacKinnon. Win probability moved 13 points.
  • COL 2–4, 08:33 of the second. N. MacKinnon, wrist shot from 33 feet, a 5% chance by the model (off the rush), past D. Kuemper. Assists: M. Necas, B. Burns. D. Kuemper was 513 seconds into his shift for the defending side. Win probability moved 14 points.
  • COL 2–5, 16:01 of the second. N. Roy, poke from 12 feet, an 11% chance by the model (a rebound), past D. Kuemper. Assists: J. Schwartz, P. Kelly. 2 seconds after a COL shot by J. Schwartz. D. Kuemper was 222 seconds into his shift for the defending side. Win probability moved 6 points.
  • LAK 3–5, 17:50 of the second shorthanded. T. Moore, wrist shot from 32 feet, an 11% chance by the model (off the rush), past M. Blackwood. Assists: M. Anderson. Win probability moved 6 points.
  • COL 3–6, 18:34 of the second on the power play. A. Lehkonen, snap shot from 19 feet, a 20% chance by the model (off the rush), past D. Kuemper. Assists: B. Nelson, D. Toews. D. Kuemper was 375 seconds into his shift for the defending side. Win probability moved 6 points.
  • LAK 4–6, 11:51 of the third on the power play. A. Panarin, wrist shot from 45 feet, a 5% chance by the model (off the rush), past M. Blackwood. Assists: D. Doughty, A. Laferriere. 7 seconds after a COL hit by F. Svechkov.
  • COL 4–7, 14:03 of the third. G. Landeskog, wrist shot from 7 feet, an 11% chance by the model (a rebound), past D. Kuemper. Assists: C. Makar. 2 seconds after a COL missed shot by C. Makar.
  • COL 4–8, 15:06 of the third on the power play. A. Lehkonen, snap shot from 17 feet, a 20% chance by the model (off the rush), past D. Kuemper. Assists: B. Nelson, D. Toews.

What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Sep 30
LAK
4
COL
8

Avalanche pull away from the Kings

Chances 2.9 – 3.6Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Avalanche earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
LAK
2.92
COL
3.64
44% of the chances56%

The board read LAK 4, COL 8. The chances read LAK 2.9, COL 3.6.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
COL
+4.4
goals above expected
COL3.64 expected · 8 scored
Expected
Scored
LAK2.92 expected · 4 scored
Expected
Scored

The Avalanche scored 4.4 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
The swing
+17
win-probability points
54% → 71% for COL
COL 100%the game, start to finish
LAK 100%P1 · P2 · P3
COLP1 17:58

P. Kelly makes it 1–2.

In-game win model · fitted on 5,248 games
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 06:33COLB. NelsonPP14%0–1
  2. P1 15:14LAKB. Dumoulin1%1–1
  3. P1 17:58COLP. Kelly9%1–2
  4. P2 00:23COLN. MacKinnonPP32%1–3
  5. P2 01:28LAKJ. ArmiaSH1%2–3
  6. P2 08:33COLN. MacKinnon5%2–4
  7. P2 16:01COLN. Roy11%2–5
+5 more on the full breakdown
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
LAK
45 shots
4
Final
80 shots
COL
35 shots
8
LAK attackCOL attack
LAK COL Goal
45
shots · 4 in
35
shots · 8 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
LAKCOL
0 / 2
0.37 xG
High danger
3 / 7
1.53 xG
1 / 22
2.11 xG
Medium
4 / 17
1.82 xG
3 / 38
0.44 xG
Low
1 / 26
0.29 xG

The Avalanche buried 3 of 7 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
D-
M. Blackwood
−1.1
COL · 27/31 · 60:00
Best save · a 19% chance, wrist from 9 ft · P2 14:40
F
D. Kuemper
−4.4
LAK · 21/29 · 59:25
Best save · a 24% chance, wrist from 5 ft · P2 15:59
Best skater on the ice
A+
COL
N. MacKinnon
C · impact 2.89
17:44
Ice time
2–0
G – A
1.01
Own xG
69%
xG share
Impact · top 4
N. MacKinnon2.9A+
A. Laferriere1.8A+
J. Schwartz1.6A+
B. Nelson1.8A
Report card
LAKCOL
OffenseB-A
DefenseFD+
TransitionC-C+
Special teamsFA+
GoaltendingFD
DisciplineC-B-
LuckFA+
Seven dimensions, A+ to F · basis on the breakdown
Why it went the way it went
Why COL won
  1. 01Dangerous off the rush
  2. 02Power play cashed in
  3. 03Clinical in the slot
Why LAK lost
  1. 01D. Kuemper couldn't make the stop
  2. 02Rush defense leaked all night
  3. 03PDO ran cold
Our storyline model · reasoning on the breakdown
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Avalanche pull away from the Kings

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 12 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 13–10
  1. 06:33COLB. Nelsonpower play(J. Schwartz, N. Kadri)0–1

    Snap shot from 18 feet, a 14% chance (off the rush), past D. Kuemper. D. Kuemper was 393s into his shift for the defending side. Win probability moved 14 points.On the ice: D. Toews, N. Roy, P. Kelly, F. Svechkov, S. Malinski · against D. Kuemper, J. Edmundson, A. Kempe, A. Panarin, Q. Byfield, B. Clarke

  2. 15:14LAKB. Dumoulin(A. Laferriere, A. Turcotte)1–1

    Wrist shot from 43 feet, a 1% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past M. Blackwood. Win probability moved 17 points.On the ice: D. Doughty, B. Dumoulin, E. Haula, D. Kuemper, S. Laughton, T. Moore · against B. Nelson, D. Toews, N. Juulsen, N. Roy, P. Kelly

  3. 17:58COLP. Kelly(J. Manson)1–2

    Snap shot from 33 feet, a 9% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past D. Kuemper. 9s after a LAK miss by A. Laferriere. D. Kuemper was 457s into his shift for the defending side. Win probability moved 17 points.On the ice: N. Kadri, N. MacKinnon, D. Toews, M. Necas, S. Malinski · against D. Kuemper, J. Armia, S. Laughton, C. Ceci, T. Moore, M. Anderson

2ndshots 12–10
  1. 00:23COLN. MacKinnonpower play(N. Kadri, C. Makar)1–3

    Snap shot from 32 feet, a 32% chance (off the rush), past D. Kuemper. Win probability moved 13 points.On the ice: G. Landeskog, N. MacKinnon, M. Necas, C. Makar, T. Hughes · against B. Dumoulin, D. Kuemper, J. Edmundson, S. Laughton, T. Moore

  2. 01:28LAKJ. Armiashorthanded(E. Haula, C. Ceci)2–3

    Wrist shot from 41 feet, a 1% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past M. Blackwood. 10s after a COL giveaway by N. MacKinnon. Win probability moved 13 points.On the ice: E. Haula, D. Kuemper, J. Armia, C. Ceci, M. Anderson · against N. Kadri, B. Nelson, J. Schwartz, A. Lehkonen, D. Toews

  3. 08:33COLN. MacKinnon(M. Necas, B. Burns)2–4

    Wrist shot from 33 feet, a 5% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past D. Kuemper. D. Kuemper was 513s into his shift for the defending side. Win probability moved 14 points.On the ice: B. Burns, J. Schwartz, J. Manson, N. Roy, P. Kelly · against E. Haula, D. Kuemper, S. Laughton, C. Ceci, T. Moore, M. Anderson

  4. 16:01COLN. Roy(J. Schwartz, P. Kelly)2–5

    Poke from 12 feet, an 11% chance (a rebound), past D. Kuemper. 2s after a COL shot by J. Schwartz. D. Kuemper was 222s into his shift for the defending side. Win probability moved 6 points.On the ice: B. Burns, N. Kadri, B. Nelson, J. Manson, G. Landeskog · against D. Kuemper, M. Zuccarello, C. Ceci, M. Anderson, A. Turcotte, A. Laferriere

  5. 17:50LAKT. Mooreshorthanded(M. Anderson)3–5

    Wrist shot from 32 feet, an 11% chance (off the rush), past M. Blackwood. Win probability moved 6 points.On the ice: D. Doughty, B. Dumoulin, E. Haula, D. Kuemper, J. Armia · against N. Kadri, B. Nelson, J. Schwartz, A. Lehkonen, D. Toews

  6. 18:34COLA. Lehkonenpower play(B. Nelson, D. Toews)3–6

    Snap shot from 19 feet, a 20% chance (off the rush), past D. Kuemper. D. Kuemper was 375s into his shift for the defending side. Win probability moved 6 points.On the ice: B. Kulak, N. Roy, P. Kelly, F. Svechkov, S. Malinski · against D. Kuemper, J. Edmundson, A. Kempe, A. Panarin, Q. Byfield, B. Clarke

3rdshots 6–9
  1. 11:51LAKA. Panarinpower play(D. Doughty, A. Laferriere)4–6

    Wrist shot from 45 feet, a 5% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past M. Blackwood. 7s after a COL hit by F. Svechkov.

  2. 14:03COLG. Landeskog(C. Makar)4–7

    Wrist shot from 7 feet, an 11% chance (a rebound), past D. Kuemper. 2s after a COL miss by C. Makar.

  3. 15:06COLA. Lehkonenpower play(B. Nelson, D. Toews)4–8

    Snap shot from 17 feet, a 20% chance (off the rush), past D. Kuemper.

score reads LAK–COL

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
3.64
COL chances
Goals their shots were worth
+4.4
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.095
COL puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
44.6%
Shot attempts
Under half — they were outshot
Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.92Expected goals3.64
COL 56% of the chance quality
31Shots on goal29
2High-danger chances7
62All attempts (Corsi)50
Adjusted for score: LAK 61% · COL 39%
Faceoffs · COL won29%off42%neu35%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
LAK0 / 2 · 0.37 xG
COL3 / 7 · 1.53 xG
Medium dangermid-range
LAK1 / 22 · 2.11 xG
COL4 / 17 · 1.82 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
LAK3 / 38 · 0.44 xG
COL1 / 26 · 0.29 xG

LAK went 3-for-38 from low danger on 0.44 expected goals — 2.6 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
LAK
4 G · 2.92 xG · +1.1
COL
8 G · 3.64 xG · +4.4
0123456789

LAK finished +1.1 against expected, COL +4.4.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
LAK
WRIST4/21
SNAP0/6
SLAP0/7
TIP IN0/7
BACKHAND0/4
WRAP AROUND0/0
POKE0/0
OTHER0/17
COL
WRIST2/21
SNAP5/7
SLAP0/3
TIP IN0/0
BACKHAND0/2
WRAP AROUND0/1
POKE1/1
OTHER0/15
LAK
COL
Off the rush
4 G on 31
2.38 xG
6 G on 25
3.02 xG
Off rebounds
0 G on 3
0.16 xG
2 G on 3
0.26 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: LAK went 4-for-21, COL 2-for-21. COL scored 6 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
D. Kuemper
LAK · 21/29 · .724
started · 59:25 · loss
-4.4
saved above expected
F
the night
Attempts faced
35
Avg chance faced
10.4%
Stopped vs expected
0.771 vs 0.896
Rebounds allowed
3 · 2 scored on
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger3/71.5-1.5
Medium4/171.8-2.2
Low1/110.3-0.7
Shorthanded4/81.3-2.7
The save
24% chance stopped, a wrist from 5 ft · P2 15:59
The one to have back
5% chance went in, a wrist from 33 ft · P2 08:33

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

M. Blackwood
COL · 27/31 · .871
started · 60:00 · win
-1.1
saved above expected
D-
the night
Attempts faced
44
Avg chance faced
6.6%
Stopped vs expected
0.909 vs 0.934
Rebounds allowed
3
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/20.4+0.4
Medium1/222.1+1.1
Low3/200.4-2.6
Shorthanded1/100.9-0.1
Tips & deflections0/70.5+0.5
The save
19% chance stopped, a wrist from 9 ft · P2 14:40
The one to have back
1% chance went in, a wrist from 43 ft · P1 15:14

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

Every skater who dressed

Who played

Rated on what they produced and how fast

Best skater on the ice by our rating: N. MacKinnon (COL), 17:44 of ice, 2-0, 69% of the expected goals while he was out.

LAK18 skaters
SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
A. LaferriereR15:310-286A+
J. ArmiaR12:551-046B
A. PanarinL20:161-062B
M. AndersonD19:210-155B
B. ClarkeD18:570-069C
E. HaulaL15:260-137C
A. TurcotteC15:350-180C
C. CeciD19:240-155C
T. MooreL14:561-033C
B. DumoulinD16:301-025C
Q. ByfieldR18:590-057D
M. ZuccarelloR17:590-090D
D. DoughtyD22:410-137D
A. LeeL7:560-080D
A. KempeR19:230-053D
S. HeleniusC6:590-062D
S. LaughtonC15:070-037F
J. EdmundsonD15:340-034F
COL18 skaters
SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
N. MacKinnonC17:442-069A+
J. SchwartzL12:490-263A+
B. NelsonC19:141-222A
A. LehkonenL19:272-038A
C. MakarD18:140-258A
N. RoyC12:121-069A
P. KellyC12:531-154A
M. NecasC19:110-169B
N. KadriC17:570-241B
G. LandeskogL17:521-068B
J. MansonD14:310-148B
D. ToewsD20:040-245C
S. MalinskiD14:270-073C
B. BurnsD15:230-133D
T. HughesR13:350-058D
B. KulakD19:440-038F
F. SvechkovC15:280-031F
N. JuulsenD11:150-09F

xG% = share of expected goals while on the ice · PD/PT = penalties drawn / taken · “in N min” = a per-60 rate far above the raw total. Impact = 0.75 G + 0.7 A1 + 0.55 A2 + 0.075 SOG + 0.05 BLK + 0.15 penalties drawn − 0.15 taken + 0.01 faceoff wins − 0.01 losses + 0.3 individual xG + 0.5 on-ice xG for − 0.5 on-ice xG against. Rating = 65% impact + 35% impact per 60, as a percentile among the skaters in this game.

Scratched, LAK: C. Perry, E. Gustafsson. Referees Francois St-Laurent and Carter Sandlak; linesmen Matt MacPherson and Jonny Murray.

Graded against a league-average game

Report card

Seven dimensions · A+ to F
DimensionLAKCOL
Offense
▸Basis

LAK Created 2.92 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 2 high-danger shots (0.37 xG) and 31 rush shots (2.38 xG).

COL Created 3.64 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 7 high-danger shots (1.53 xG) and 25 rush shots (3.02 xG).

B-
81
A
95
Defense
▸Basis

LAK Allowed 3.64 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 7 high-danger shots (1.53 xG) and 25 rush shots (3.02 xG).

COL Allowed 2.92 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 2 high-danger shots (0.37 xG) and 31 rush shots (2.38 xG).

F
55
D+
69
Transition
▸Basis

LAK Rush shots 31–25, rush xG 2.38–3.02 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

COL Rush shots 25–31, rush xG 3.02–2.38 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

C-
72
C+
78
Special teams
▸Basis

LAK 0-for-4 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.81 PP xG.

COL 4-for-5 on the power play (80%; league ≈21%) with 1.28 PP xG.

F
56
A+
100
Goaltending
▸Basis

LAK -4.36 goals saved above expected on 29 shots against.

COL -1.08 goals saved above expected on 31 shots against.

F
31
D
64
Discipline
▸Basis

LAK Took 6 penalties for 15 PIM vs 5 for 13 on the other side.

COL Took 5 penalties for 13 PIM vs 6 for 15 on the other side.

C-
70
B-
80
Luck

Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral

▸Basis

LAK Finishing +1.08 goals vs xG plus -4.36 GSAx of save luck = -3.28 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

COL Finishing +4.36 goals vs xG plus -1.08 GSAx of save luck = +3.28 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

F
49
A+
100
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
What the model flagged
WARNINGLAK

D. Kuemper couldn't make the stop

D. Kuemper allowed 8 on 29 shots (0.724) — 4.36 goals worse than expected.

Reassess the crease rotation before the next start.

STRENGTHCOL

Dangerous off the rush

6 goals on 25 rush shots worth 3.02 xG.

WARNINGLAK

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 25 rush shots worth 3.02 xG (6 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

LUCKCOL

Ran hot in front of the net

Scored 8 on 3.64 xG — +4.36 above expected. Shooting luck like that regresses.

WARNINGCOL

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 31 rush shots worth 2.38 xG (4 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

STRENGTHLAK

Dangerous off the rush

4 goals on 31 rush shots worth 2.38 xG.

80 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
LAK
45 shots
4
Final
80 shots
COL
35 shots
8
LAK attackCOL attack
LAK COL Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — LAK left, COL right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
B. Nelson
#11 · C · COL
1 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 19:14 on ice
D. Toews
#7 · D · COL
0 G · 2 A · 0 SOG · 20:04 on ice · +1
A. Lehkonen
#62 · L · COL
2 G · 0 A · 3 SOG · 19:27 on ice · +1
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Wed, Sep 30
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 4, 5:33 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Colorado is the model's lean. The Avalanche's expected goals share at 5-on-5 sits at 59.2%, a material gap revealing where the edge lives. That advantage carries 57% win probability in a model projection of 2.9–3.4, but both clubs' luck asks for regression context.

The Kings generate shot attempts at 55.1%, holding territorial edge. Yet LA's execution hasn't tracked that volume — Colorado's expected goals advantage reveals where the real difference lives. Quality of looks matters more than possession metrics.

Los Angeles's goalie is the softer target. D. Kuemper's save percentage sits at 72.4%, placing him below average. He's also at -4.9 goals saved above expected through one game, and his high-danger save percentage reads 57.1%. Avalanche forwards primed for dangerous looks will find angles LA doesn't want to concede.

Regression looms on both sides. Colorado's luck reads 1.157, running hot and asking for moderate downside. Los Angeles sits at 0.888, running cold with due upside. Tonight the edge stays with Colorado; by December these numbers might flip. That's temporary luck, not sustainable advantage.

The Kings do score when they reach the slot, converting at 16% — five goals on 31 attempts. Colorado sits at 11% on 36, taking four. The difference isn't conversion rate, it's frequency. Avalanche generate dangerous looks regularly enough that even a marginal LA leak becomes leverage.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

COL 57%
57%
COL
Model favorite
43%
57%
LAK50COL

COL by 14 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score LAK 2.9–3.4 COL; 16% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
LAK← edge
edge →COL
54.9%59.2%
55.1%50.5%
3.183.26
2.612.25
4.007.00
6.502.50
0.8881.157

COL holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.888 vs 1.157) says COL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · No games yet
LAK
0-0-0
+0 GD · 3d rest
COL
0-0-0
+0 GD · 3d rest
0.888
LAK PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.157
COL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

TACTICAL

The Avalanche own the underlying play

The Avalanche own the underlying play — 59.2% 5v5 xG vs 54.9%.

TACTICAL

The Kings drive Corsi at 55.1%

The Kings drive Corsi at 55.1% — expect territorial tilt.

TACTICALLAK

Goalie Weakness: Kings

Below-average on high-danger saves. Prioritize quality over quantity.

Their goalie (Darcy Kuemper) leaks HD — 57.1% HD SV. Get to the slot.

WARNINGCOL

Regression watch: Avalanche

The Avalanche's PDO is 1.157 — running hot, expect some regression.

Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.

Where the edges live
  • The Avalanche own the underlying play — 59.2% 5v5 xG vs 54.9%.
  • The Kings drive Corsi at 55.1% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
  • The Avalanche's PDO is 1.157 — running hot, expect some regression.
  • The Kings' PDO is 0.888 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
  • The Avalanche own the underlying play — 59.2% 5v5 xG vs 54.9%.
  • The Kings drive Corsi at 55.1% — expect territorial tilt.
  • Goalie matchup: D. Kuemper (-4.9 GSAx in 1 GP, 72.4% SV) vs S. Wedgewood.
  • The Avalanche's PDO is 1.157 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
LAK
Expected in goal
D. Kuemper
3 days rest.895 last start
Backup Anton Forsberg · -3.2 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

COL
Expected in goal
S. Wedgewood
3 days rest.943 last start
Backup Mackenzie Blackwood · -0.8 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Keep going

Where to next

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