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← Thu, Oct 1 · the slate
Breakdown · PHI at NJD

Devils run the Flyers off the ice on the underlying numbers

Final / OTThu, Oct 1
PHIPhiladelphia Flyers2NJDNew Jersey Devils3
The verdict · earned

The Devils earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

PHI 2 · NJD 3
◆ By the ModelOct 3, 5:57 AMxG: xgboost-0.765Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Devils beat the Flyers 3-2 in overtime, with J. Hughes scoring the winner at 03:23 of OT on a wrist shot from 10 feet. But the real story was New Jersey's dominance on the scorecards and Philadelphia's goaltending heroics.

The Devils controlled 72% of expected goals and 64% of shot attempts — a performance that should have settled the game before overtime. J. Woll made 41 saves on 44 shots. He stopped 2.11 goals above expectation. The Devils scored only 3 goals, underperforming their expected total of 5.11.

New Jersey was lethal off the rush, converting three goals on 40 chances. The Flyers matched that efficiency with two goals on 20, but could not sustain it. The Devils controlled the high-danger chances 7–2.

R. Ristolainen opened the scoring on the power play at 11:12 of the first with a tip-in from 11 feet. D. Hamilton tied it at 17:58 of the second with a 44-foot snap shot, two seconds after reclaiming the puck. T. Sanheim regained the lead at 05:33 of the third with a 43-foot slap shot. L. Hughes answered at 09:44 of the third with a 33-foot snap shot, eight seconds after his turnover recovery.

J. Allen made 23 saves on 25 shots for New Jersey.

The Devils were the better team by the numbers.

The goals

  • PHI 1–0, 11:12 of the first on the power play. R. Ristolainen, tip-in from 11 feet, an 11% chance by the model (off the rush), past J. Allen. Assists: T. Sanheim, T. Konecny. Win probability moved 16 points.
  • NJD 1–1, 17:58 of the second. D. Hamilton, snap shot from 44 feet, a 1% chance by the model (off the rush), past J. Woll. 2 seconds after a NJD takeaway by D. Hamilton. Win probability moved 25 points.
  • PHI 2–1, 05:33 of the third. T. Sanheim, slap shot from 43 feet, a 6% chance by the model (off the rush), past J. Allen. Assists: S. Couturier. Win probability moved 29 points.
  • NJD 2–2, 09:44 of the third. L. Hughes, snap shot from 33 feet, a 10% chance by the model (off the rush), past J. Woll. Assists: L. Evangelista. 8 seconds after a NJD takeaway by L. Hughes. Win probability moved 33 points.
  • NJD 2–3, 03:23 of overtime. J. Hughes, wrist shot from 10 feet, a 26% chance by the model (off the rush), past J. Woll. Assists: J. Bratt. 8 seconds after a PHI giveaway by T. Sanheim. Win probability moved 50 points.

What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · OT · Oct 1
PHI
2
NJD
3

Devils run the Flyers off the ice on the underlying numbers

Chances 1.9 – 5.1Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Devils earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
PHI
1.95
NJD
5.11
28% of the chances72%

The board read PHI 2, NJD 3. The chances read PHI 1.9, NJD 5.1.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
NJD
−2.1
goals above expected
NJD5.11 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored
PHI1.95 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
The swing
+50
win-probability points
50% → 100% for NJD
NJD 100%the game, start to finish
PHI 100%P1 · P2 · P3
NJDOT 03:23

J. Hughes makes it 2–3.

In-game win model · fitted on 5,248 games
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 11:12PHIR. RistolainenPP11%1–0
  2. P2 17:58NJDD. Hamilton1%1–1
  3. P3 05:33PHIT. Sanheim6%2–1
  4. P3 09:44NJDL. Hughes10%2–2
  5. OT 03:23NJDJ. Hughes26%2–3
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
PHI
31 shots
2
Final
93 shots
NJD
62 shots
3
PHI attackNJD attack
PHI NJD Goal
31
shots · 2 in
62
shots · 3 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
PHINJD
0 / 2
0.39 xG
High danger
1 / 7
1.44 xG
2 / 14
1.15 xG
Medium
1 / 28
3.16 xG
0 / 25
0.40 xG
Low
1 / 60
0.51 xG

High-danger looks: PHI 0 of 2, NJD 1 of 7.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A
J. Woll
+2.1
PHI · 41/44 · 62:49
Best save · a 22% chance, snap from 10 ft · P1 16:34
C
J. Allen
−0.1
NJD · 23/25 · 63:23
Best save · a 20% chance, wrist from 22 ft · P2 06:55
Best skater on the ice
A+
NJD
J. Bratt
L · impact 2.16
21:16
Ice time
0–1
G – A
0.90
Own xG
80%
xG share
Impact · top 4
J. Bratt2.2A+
L. Hughes2.1A+
J. Hughes1.9A+
D. Hamilton1.8A
Report card
PHINJD
OffenseD+A+
DefenseFB
TransitionFA+
Special teamsFF
GoaltendingAC
DisciplineD-A-
LuckA-F
Seven dimensions, A+ to F · basis on the breakdown
Why it went the way it went
Why NJD won
  1. 01Dangerous off the rush
  2. 02Won on the merits
  3. 03The moment it turned
Why PHI lost
  1. 01Rush defense leaked all night
  2. 02Paraded to the penalty box
  3. 03Allowed 5.11 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 7 high-danger shots (1.44 xG) and 40 rush shots (3.68 xG).
Our storyline model · reasoning on the breakdown
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Devils run the Flyers off the ice on the underlying numbers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 12 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 6–14
  1. 11:12PHIR. Ristolainenpower play(T. Sanheim, T. Konecny)1–0

    Tip-in from 11 feet, an 11% chance (off the rush), past J. Allen. Win probability moved 16 points.On the ice: O. Tippett, T. Zegras, C. York, J. Drysdale, A. Bump · against B. Pesce, A. Mantha, J. Bratt, J. Hughes, L. Hughes

2ndshots 8–16
  1. 17:58NJDD. Hamilton1–1

    Snap shot from 44 feet, a 1% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past J. Woll. 2s after a NJD takeaway by D. Hamilton. Win probability moved 25 points.On the ice: B. Dillon, E. Rodrigues, D. Chisholm, A. Gritsyuk, D. Mercer · against S. Couturier, R. Ristolainen, T. Sanheim, N. Acciari, O. Tippett

3rdshots 8–11
  1. 05:33PHIT. Sanheim(S. Couturier)2–1

    Slap shot from 43 feet, a 6% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past J. Allen. Win probability moved 29 points.On the ice: S. Couturier, R. Ristolainen, T. Sanheim, N. Acciari, C. Grundstrom · against B. Pesce, T. Meier, N. Hischier, L. Evangelista, L. Hughes

  2. 09:44NJDL. Hughes(L. Evangelista)2–2

    Snap shot from 33 feet, a 10% chance (off the rush), past J. Woll. 8s after a NJD takeaway by L. Hughes. Win probability moved 33 points.On the ice: D. Hamilton, J. Siegenthaler, C. Glass, D. Mercer, A. Lombardi · against R. Ristolainen, T. Sanheim, C. Dvorak, T. Konecny, O. Tippett

OTshots 3–3
  1. 03:23NJDJ. Hughes(J. Bratt)2–3

    Wrist shot from 10 feet, a 26% chance (off the rush), past J. Woll. 8s after a PHI giveaway by T. Sanheim. Win probability moved 50 points.

score reads PHI–NJD

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
5.11
NJD chances
Goals their shots were worth
−2.1
Finishing
Goals below what those chances were worth
0.983
NJD puck luck
About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
69.9%
Shot attempts
Over half — they had the puck more
Split by club

Who controlled the game

1.95Expected goals5.11
NJD 72% of the chance quality
25Shots on goal44
2High-danger chances7
41All attempts (Corsi)95
Adjusted for score: PHI 29% · NJD 72%
Faceoffs · NJD won71%off53%neu31%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
PHI0 / 2 · 0.39 xG
NJD1 / 7 · 1.44 xG
Medium dangermid-range
PHI2 / 14 · 1.15 xG
NJD1 / 28 · 3.16 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
PHI0 / 25 · 0.40 xG
NJD1 / 60 · 0.51 xG

NJD went 1-for-28 from medium danger on 3.16 expected goals — 2.2 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
PHI
2 G · 1.95 xG · +0.1
NJD
3 G · 5.11 xG · -2.1
0123456

PHI finished +0.1 against expected, NJD -2.1.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
PHI
WRIST0/18
SNAP0/1
TIP IN1/3
BACKHAND0/3
SLAP1/4
DEFLECTED0/2
WRAP AROUND0/0
OTHER0/10
NJD
WRIST1/33
SNAP2/20
TIP IN0/3
BACKHAND0/3
SLAP0/2
DEFLECTED0/0
WRAP AROUND0/1
OTHER0/33
PHI
NJD
Off the rush
2 G on 20
1.23 xG
3 G on 40
3.68 xG
Off rebounds
0 G on 3
0.29 xG
0 G on 4
0.66 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: PHI went 0-for-18, NJD 1-for-33. NJD scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
J. Woll
PHI · 41/44 · .932
started · 62:49 · OT loss
+2.1
saved above expected
A
the night
Attempts faced
62
Avg chance faced
8.2%
Stopped vs expected
0.952 vs 0.918
Rebounds allowed
4
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger1/71.4+0.4
Medium1/283.2+2.2
Low1/270.5-0.5
Shorthanded0/91.0+1.0
Tips & deflections0/30.3+0.3
The save
22% chance stopped, a snap from 10 ft · P1 16:34
The one to have back
1% chance went in, a snap from 44 ft · P2 17:58

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Allen
NJD · 23/25 · .920
started · 63:23 · win
-0.1
saved above expected
C
the night
Attempts faced
31
Avg chance faced
6.3%
Stopped vs expected
0.935 vs 0.937
Rebounds allowed
3
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/20.4+0.4
Medium2/141.1-0.8
Low0/150.4+0.4
Shorthanded1/40.3-0.7
Tips & deflections1/50.4-0.6
The save
20% chance stopped, a wrist from 22 ft · P2 06:55
The one to have back
6% chance went in, a slap from 43 ft · P3 05:33

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

Every skater who dressed

Who played

Rated on what they produced and how fast

Best skater on the ice by our rating: J. Bratt (NJD), 21:16 of ice, 0-1, 80% of the expected goals while he was out.

PHI18 skaters
SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
T. SanheimD25:471-126A
R. RistolainenD22:441-033B
T. KonecnyR16:590-145B
C. GrundstromR8:300-054B
S. CouturierC17:020-134C
M. MichkovR13:240-052C
J. DrysdaleD20:390-030D
N. SeelerD14:430-027D
S. BenoitD13:290-035D
C. DvorakC20:450-041D
P. MartoneR12:270-034D
N. CatesL15:120-023D
O. TippettR16:050-024D
C. YorkD24:010-023F
N. AcciariC16:360-034F
T. FoersterR18:500-021F
T. ZegrasC17:120-025F
A. BumpL8:180-015F
NJD18 skaters
SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
J. BrattL21:160-180A+
L. HughesD24:171-074A+
J. HughesC25:481-078A+
D. HamiltonD21:321-070A
L. EvangelistaR18:100-176A
A. GritsyukR18:430-083A
N. HischierC18:560-079A
D. MercerC16:080-079B
E. RodriguesC17:130-078B
T. MeierR16:410-055B
B. DillonD14:480-071B
J. SiegenthalerD20:400-070C
C. GlassC8:260-053C
A. ManthaR17:240-068C
D. ChisholmD14:320-062C
A. LombardiC8:030-059C
B. PesceD19:320-048C
S. NoesenR6:000-040D

xG% = share of expected goals while on the ice · PD/PT = penalties drawn / taken · “in N min” = a per-60 rate far above the raw total. Impact = 0.75 G + 0.7 A1 + 0.55 A2 + 0.075 SOG + 0.05 BLK + 0.15 penalties drawn − 0.15 taken + 0.01 faceoff wins − 0.01 losses + 0.3 individual xG + 0.5 on-ice xG for − 0.5 on-ice xG against. Rating = 65% impact + 35% impact per 60, as a percentile among the skaters in this game.

Scratched, PHI: G. Wilson, D. Jiricek, N. Grebenkin. Scratched, NJD: C. Brown, J. Boqvist, R. Poirier. Referees Wes McCauley and Furman South; linesmen Kyle Flemington and Jonathan Deschamps.

Graded against a league-average game

Report card

Seven dimensions · A+ to F
DimensionPHINJD
Offense
▸Basis

PHI Created 1.95 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 2 high-danger shots (0.39 xG) and 20 rush shots (1.23 xG).

NJD Created 5.11 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 7 high-danger shots (1.44 xG) and 40 rush shots (3.68 xG).

D+
67
A+
100
Defense
▸Basis

PHI Allowed 5.11 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 7 high-danger shots (1.44 xG) and 40 rush shots (3.68 xG).

NJD Allowed 1.95 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 2 high-danger shots (0.39 xG) and 20 rush shots (1.23 xG).

F
38
B
83
Transition
▸Basis

PHI Rush shots 20–40, rush xG 1.23–3.68 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

NJD Rush shots 40–20, rush xG 3.68–1.23 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

F
40
A+
100
Special teams
▸Basis

PHI 0-for-1 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.06 PP xG.

NJD 0-for-4 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.99 PP xG.

F
50
F
58
Goaltending
▸Basis

PHI +2.11 goals saved above expected on 44 shots against.

NJD -0.05 goals saved above expected on 25 shots against.

A
96
C
74
Discipline
▸Basis

PHI Took 4 penalties for 8 PIM vs 1 for 2 on the other side.

NJD Took 1 penalties for 2 PIM vs 4 for 8 on the other side.

D-
60
A-
90
Luck

Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral

▸Basis

PHI Finishing +0.05 goals vs xG plus +2.11 GSAx of save luck = +2.16 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

NJD Finishing -2.11 goals vs xG plus -0.05 GSAx of save luck = -2.16 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

A-
92
F
58
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
What the model flagged
WARNINGPHI

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 40 rush shots worth 3.68 xG (3 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

STRENGTHNJD

Dangerous off the rush

3 goals on 40 rush shots worth 3.68 xG.

STRENGTHPHI

J. Woll stole it

J. Woll stopped 41 of 44 (0.932) — +2.11 goals saved above expected in a 1-goal game.

STRENGTHNJD

Won on the merits

The Devils controlled 72% of expected goals (5.11–1.95) and won 3-2 in overtime — result matched process.

LUCKNJD

Cold finishing night

Scored 3 on 5.11 xG — -2.11 vs expected. The looks were there; the finish will come back.

WARNINGNJD

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 20 rush shots worth 1.23 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

93 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
PHI
31 shots
2
Final
93 shots
NJD
62 shots
3
PHI attackNJD attack
PHI NJD Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — PHI left, NJD right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
T. Sanheim
#6 · D · PHI
1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 25:47 on ice
J. Hughes
#86 · C · NJD
1 G · 0 A · 5 SOG · 25:48 on ice · +2
L. Hughes
#43 · D · NJD
1 G · 0 A · 5 SOG · 24:17 on ice · +1
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Thu, Oct 1
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 3, 5:55 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

New Jersey's model edge runs deep. The Devils are favored at 56% win probability in a projected 2.9–3.3 game—and that projection assumes the teams play evenly. In reality, the Devils control the game.

At 5-on-5, New Jersey generates 72.4% of expected goals, with Philadelphia generating 28.4%. That gap translates to territorial dominance: the Devils hold 67.3% of shot attempts versus the Flyers' 34.2%. On the road, that kind of play-driving advantage is decisive.

New Jersey arrives on four days of rest. Philadelphia plays on zero. The fatigue asymmetry compounds the workload advantage.

Philadelphia's underlying metrics carry hidden upside. The Flyers are running cold—0.939 puck-dependent outcomes—which means they're scoring and allowing fewer goals than their shot workload suggests. When that regresses, Philadelphia's goal differential improves without play-quality gains.

Watch the goaltending: D. Vladar is starting on the second night of a back-to-back, a leg-fatigue risk. He allowed 2.7 more goals than that workload should have in his one early-season start, posting 81.6% save percentage. J. Allen, the Flyers' alternative, has run nearly even to expected on 92.0% save percentage in one appearance—a marginal edge, but in a tight matchup, worth noting.

The slot is where these teams execute on offense. New Jersey has scored 8 goals on 50 slot shots (16%)—elite territory. Philadelphia has 3 goals on 40 slot shots (8%). Denying prime real estate is the Flyers' best path to staying close.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

NJD 56%
56%
NJD
Model favorite
44%
56%
PHI50NJD

NJD by 12 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score PHI 2.9–3.3 NJD; 16% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
PHI← edge
edge →NJD
28.4%72.4%
34.2%67.3%
1.874.88
4.701.86
1.003.00
5.002.00
0.9391.011

NJD holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.939 vs 1.011) says NJD has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 0–1
PHI
0-1-0
-7 GD · 0d rest
NJD
0-0-0
+0 GD · 4d rest
0.939
PHI PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.011
NJD PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

WARNINGPHI

D. Vladar on a back-to-back

D. Vladar projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.

Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.

TACTICALNJD

Rest edge

The Devils come in on 4 days of rest; the other side on 0.

Push the pace early against tired legs.

TACTICAL

The Devils own the underlying play

The Devils own the underlying play — 72.4% 5v5 xG vs 28.4%.

TACTICAL

The Devils drive Corsi at 67.3%

The Devils drive Corsi at 67.3% — expect territorial tilt.

Where the edges live
  • The Devils own the underlying play — 72.4% 5v5 xG vs 28.4%.
  • The Devils drive Corsi at 67.3% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
  • The Flyers' PDO is 0.939 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
  • The Devils own the underlying play — 72.4% 5v5 xG vs 28.4%.
  • The Devils drive Corsi at 67.3% — expect territorial tilt.
  • Goalie matchup: D. Vladar (-2.7 GSAx in 1 GP, 81.6% SV) vs J. Allen (-0.2 GSAx in 1 GP, 92.0% SV).
  • D. Vladar is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • The Flyers' PDO is 0.939 — running cold, due for positive regression.
  • The Devils have 4 more days of rest.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
PHI
Expected in goal
D. Vladar
back-to-back.816 last start
Backup Joseph Woll · +1.6 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

NJD
Expected in goal
J. Allen
4 days rest.933 last start

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Keep going

Where to next

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