Breakdown · TBL at NYR

Rangers run the Lightning off the ice on the underlying numbers

FinalThu, Oct 1

TBLTampa Bay Lightning1 NYRNew York Rangers5

The verdict · earned

The Rangers earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

TBL 1 · NYR 5

◆ By the ModelOct 4, 5:33 AMxG: xgboost-0.765Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

I. Shesterkin stole this game. The Rangers beat Tampa 5–1, but their goaltender made stop after stop to turn a convincing win into a rout.

Shesterkin stopped 23 of 24 shots and saved 1.9 goals above expected. The Rangers' performance warranted the scoreline: they controlled 62% of expected goals at 5v5 (4.77–2.86), held high-danger chances to 6–2, and scored three of their four even-strength goals off the rush. A. Vasilevskiy faced elevated danger every shift—posting a 0.833 save percentage—while the Rangers shot 0.092 expected goals per attempt versus 0.045 for the Lightning. New York needed just 25 shot attempts to generate twice as much dangerous looks as Tampa's 24 generated.

The Lightning's only goal came from N. Kucherov on a rebound midway through the second, his backhander 3 seconds after an I. Mikheyev miss. Tampa generated 2.86 expected goals—respectable quality—but converted just one, underperforming by 1.86.

Special teams decided the margins. M. Zibanejad buried a power-play chance early, and New York's penalty kill was pristine despite drawing fewer infractions.

Three Stars

#23 A. Fox (NYR) — 2A in 19:04
#93 M. Zibanejad (NYR) — 1G, 1A in 18:53
#16 P. Dorofeyev (NYR) — 1G, 1A in 13:44

The goals

NYR 0–1, 05:34 of the first on the power play. M. Zibanejad, wrist shot from 23 feet, an 8% chance by the model (a rebound), past A. Vasilevskiy. Assists: P. Dorofeyev, A. Fox. 2 seconds after a NYR shot by P. Dorofeyev. Win probability moved 14 points.
NYR 0–2, 10:51 of the first. P. Dorofeyev, snap shot from 16 feet, a 20% chance by the model (off the rush), past A. Vasilevskiy. Assists: O. Bjorkstrand. 9 seconds after a TBL missed shot by J. Carlson. Win probability moved 12 points.
NYR 0–3, 01:40 of the second. E. Tolvanen, wrist shot from 19 feet, a 12% chance by the model (off the rush), past A. Vasilevskiy. Assists: N. Laba. Win probability moved 8 points.
TBL 1–3, 07:59 of the second. N. Kucherov, backhander from 15 feet, a 5% chance by the model (a rebound), past I. Shesterkin. Assists: I. Mikheyev, B. Point. 3 seconds after a TBL missed shot by I. Mikheyev. Win probability moved 7 points.
NYR 1–4, 16:01 of the second. G. Perreault, tip-in from 11 feet, a 7% chance by the model (off the rush), past A. Vasilevskiy. Assists: A. Fox, M. Zibanejad. Win probability moved 6 points.
NYR 1–5, 17:26 of the third into an empty net. I. Shesterkin, wrist shot from 12 feet, a 97% chance by the model.

What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Oct 1

TBL

NYR

Rangers run the Lightning off the ice on the underlying numbers

Chances 2.9 – 4.8Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Rangers earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value

TBL

2.86

NYR

4.77

38% of the chances63%

The board read TBL 1, NYR 5. The chances read TBL 2.9, NYR 4.8.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

NYR

+0.2

goals above expected

NYR4.77 expected · 5 scored

Expected

Scored

TBL2.86 expected · 1 scored

Expected

Scored

The Lightning left 1.9 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

The swing

+14

win-probability points

54% → 68% for NYR

NYR 100%the game, start to finish

TBL 100%P1 · P2 · P3

NYRP1 05:34 · PP

M. Zibanejad makes it 0–1.

In-game win model · fitted on 5,248 games

Every goal, in order

P1 05:34NYRM. ZibanejadPP8%0–1
P1 10:51NYRP. Dorofeyev20%0–2
P2 01:40NYRE. Tolvanen12%0–3
P2 07:59TBLN. Kucherov5%1–3
P2 16:01NYRG. Perreault7%1–4
P3 17:26NYRI. ShesterkinEN97%1–5

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

TBL

40 shots

Final

76 shots

NYR

36 shots

TBL NYR GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 1 in

shots · 5 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

TBLNYR

0 / 2

0.41 xG

High danger

2 / 6

2.18 xG

0 / 18

1.77 xG

Medium

3 / 21

2.46 xG

1 / 43

0.68 xG

Low

0 / 25

0.13 xG

The Rangers buried 2 of 6 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

I. Shesterkin

+1.9

NYR · 23/24 · 60:00

Best save · a 23% chance, wrist from 5 ft · P2 02:05

D-

A. Vasilevskiy

−0.9

TBL · 20/24 · 55:52

Best save · a 20% chance, snap from 21 ft · P2 11:54

Best skater on the ice

A+

NYR

M. Zibanejad

C · impact 2.23

18:53

Ice time

1–1

G – A

0.47

Own xG

73%

xG share

Impact · top 4

M. Zibanejad2.2A+

P. Dorofeyev2.0A+

G. Perreault1.4A+

A. Fox1.5A

Report card

TBLNYR

OffenseC+A+

DefenseFC-

TransitionC-C+

Special teamsFA+

GoaltendingBA

DisciplineA+F

LuckDA-

Seven dimensions, A+ to F · basis on the breakdown

Why it went the way it went

Why NYR won

01Dangerous off the rush
02I. Shesterkin tilted the crease
03Won on the merits

Why TBL lost

01Rush defense leaked all night
02Cold finishing night
03Power play came up empty

Our storyline model · reasoning on the breakdown

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Rangers run the Lightning off the ice on the underlying numbers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 12 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 8–7

05:34NYRM. Zibanejadpower play(P. Dorofeyev, A. Fox)0–1
Wrist shot from 23 feet, an 8% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (a rebound), past A. Vasilevskiy. 2s after a NYR shot by P. Dorofeyev. Win probability moved 14 points.On the ice: V. Gavrikov, E. Tolvanen, B. Schneider, W. Cuylle, N. Laba · against J. Carlson, N. Kucherov, B. Point, I. Mikheyev, J. Moser
10:51NYRP. Dorofeyev(O. Bjorkstrand)0–2
Snap shot from 16 feet, a 20% chance (off the rush), past A. Vasilevskiy. 9s after a TBL miss by J. Carlson. Win probability moved 12 points.On the ice: M. Zibanejad, V. Gavrikov, A. Fox, A. Lafrenière, G. Perreault · against R. McDonagh, Z. Girgensons, E. Cernak, J. Viel, P. Holmberg

2ndshots 10–11

01:40NYRE. Tolvanen(N. Laba)0–3
Wrist shot from 19 feet, a 12% chance (off the rush), past A. Vasilevskiy. Win probability moved 8 points.On the ice: J. Veleno, T. Kartye, B. Schneider, J. Chmelar, A. Smits · against V. Hedman, Z. Girgensons, J. Viel, C. D'Astous, P. Holmberg
07:59TBLN. Kucherov(I. Mikheyev, B. Point)1–3
Backhander from 15 feet, a 5% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (a rebound), past I. Shesterkin. 3s after a TBL miss by I. Mikheyev. Win probability moved 7 points.On the ice: V. Hedman, Z. Girgensons, J. Viel, C. D'Astous, P. Holmberg · against J. Miller, O. Bjorkstrand, P. Dorofeyev, B. Schneider, A. Smits
16:01NYRG. Perreault(A. Fox, M. Zibanejad)1–4
Tip-in from 11 feet, a 7% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past A. Vasilevskiy. Win probability moved 6 points.On the ice: M. Zibanejad, V. Gavrikov, A. Fox, A. Lafrenière, G. Perreault · against V. Hedman, N. Kucherov, A. Cirelli, B. Hagel, C. D'Astous

3rdshots 6–7

17:26NYRI. Shesterkinempty net1–5
Wrist shot from 12 feet, a 97% chance, a near-certain one.

score reads TBL–NYR

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

4.77

NYR chances

Goals their shots were worth

+0.2

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.080

NYR puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

45.2%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.86Expected goals4.77

NYR 63% of the chance quality

24Shots on goal25

2High-danger chances6

63All attempts (Corsi)52

Adjusted for score: TBL 61% · NYR 39%

Faceoffs · NYR won50%off50%neu93%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

TBL0 / 2 · 0.41 xG

NYR2 / 6 · 2.18 xG

Medium dangermid-range

TBL0 / 18 · 1.77 xG

NYR3 / 21 · 2.46 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

TBL1 / 43 · 0.68 xG

NYR0 / 25 · 0.13 xG

TBL went 0-for-18 from medium danger on 1.77 expected goals — 1.8 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

TBL

1 G · 2.86 xG · -1.9

NYR

5 G · 4.77 xG · +0.2

0123456

TBL finished -1.9 against expected, NYR +0.2.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

TBL

WRIST0/17

SLAP0/10

SNAP0/0

TIP IN0/8

BACKHAND1/3

POKE0/1

BAT0/0

OTHER0/24

NYR

WRIST3/13

SLAP0/4

SNAP1/14

TIP IN1/1

BACKHAND0/3

POKE0/0

BAT0/1

OTHER0/16

TBL

NYR

Off the rush

0 G on 23

1.81 xG

3 G on 21

2.31 xG

Off rebounds

1 G on 8

0.74 xG

1 G on 4

0.51 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: TBL went 0-for-17, NYR 3-for-13. NYR scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

A. Vasilevskiy

TBL · 20/24 · .833

started · 55:52 · loss

-0.9

saved above expected

D-

the night

Attempts faced: 32
Avg chance faced: 9.7%
Stopped vs expected: 0.875 vs 0.903
Rebounds allowed: 4 · 1 scored on

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/30.6-0.4

Medium3/202.4-0.6

Low0/90.1+0.1

Shorthanded1/30.4-0.6

Tips & deflections1/10.1-0.9

The save

20% chance stopped, a snap from 21 ft · P2 11:54

The one to have back

7% chance went in, a tip-in from 11 ft · P2 16:01

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

I. Shesterkin

NYR · 23/24 · .958

started · 60:00 · win

+1.9

saved above expected

the night

Attempts faced: 39
Avg chance faced: 7.3%
Stopped vs expected: 0.974 vs 0.927
Rebounds allowed: 8 · 1 scored on

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/20.4+0.4

Medium0/181.8+1.8

Low1/190.7-0.3

Shorthanded0/120.8+0.8

Tips & deflections0/80.5+0.5

The save

23% chance stopped, a wrist from 5 ft · P2 02:05

The one to have back

5% chance went in, a backhand from 15 ft · P2 07:59

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

Every skater who dressed

Who played

Rated on what they produced and how fast

Best skater on the ice by our rating: M. Zibanejad (NYR), 18:53 of ice, 1-1, 73% of the expected goals while he was out.

TBL18 skaters

Skater	TOI	G-A	SOG	ixG	xG%	PD/PT	Impact	/60	Grade
I. MikheyevR	10:56	0-1	0	0.16	62	2/0	1.20	6.57	A
N. KucherovR	24:07	1-0	1	0.27	65	0/0	1.15	2.86	A
B. PointC	22:38	0-1	1	0.27	52	0/0	0.75	1.99	B
A. CirelliC	19:56	0-0	3	0.20	53	1/0	0.55	1.64	B
B. HagelL	23:40	0-0	3	0.30	60	1/0	0.56	1.41	B
J. CarlsonD	23:41	0-0	4	0.17	55	0/0	0.52	1.32	C
V. HedmanD	17:45	0-0	2	0.11	42	0/0	0.22	0.75	C
J. GuentzelC	24:02	0-0	3	0.23	42	0/0	0.24	0.59	C
P. HolmbergR	14:59	0-0	3	0.48	41	0/0	0.20	0.78	C
E. CernakD	16:00	0-0	1	0.10	41	1/0	0.16	0.60	C
J. VielL	8:49	0-0	1	0.17	47	1/1	0.08	0.52	C
C. D'AstousD	19:07	0-0	0	0.00	48	0/0	0.06	0.17	D
R. McDonaghD	15:46	0-0	1	0.01	41	0/0	0.02	0.07	D
G. GoncalvesC	12:09	0-0	0	0.04	44	0/0	-0.02	-0.10	D
C. GeekieC	12:32	0-0	0	0.00	39	0/0	-0.07	-0.31	D
Z. GirgensonsC	7:39	0-0	0	0.00	48	0/0	-0.08	-0.63	D
J. HarkinsC	10:55	0-0	1	0.19	27	0/0	-0.12	-0.68	F
J. MoserD	14:54	0-0	0	0.17	41	0/2	-0.29	-1.18	F

NYR18 skaters

Skater	TOI	G-A	SOG	ixG	xG%	PD/PT	Impact	/60	Grade
M. ZibanejadC	18:53	1-1	3	0.47	73	0/0	2.23	7.07	A+
P. DorofeyevR	13:44	1-1	5	0.81	43	0/0	1.98	8.64	A+
G. PerreaultR	10:46	1-0	1	0.07	76	1/0	1.36	7.58	A+
A. FoxD	19:04	0-2	0	0.16	70	0/1	1.53	4.82	A
E. TolvanenR	14:18	1-0	1	0.12	71	0/0	1.10	4.60	A
A. LafrenièreL	15:15	0-0	3	0.31	76	1/0	0.88	3.47	A
O. BjorkstrandR	12:25	0-1	1	0.17	45	0/0	0.77	3.70	B
N. LabaC	16:14	0-1	0	0.00	53	0/1	0.59	2.18	B
V. GavrikovD	23:20	0-0	0	0.00	68	0/0	0.59	1.53	B
M. PetterssonD	21:38	0-0	1	0.53	53	0/0	0.53	1.47	B
W. CuylleL	14:12	0-0	3	0.54	68	0/1	0.41	1.74	C
J. VelenoC	14:45	0-0	1	0.11	33	0/0	0.06	0.26	C
J. MillerC	15:33	0-0	1	0.37	46	0/2	0.02	0.08	D
S. DurziD	20:54	0-0	0	0.00	55	0/1	0.02	0.06	D
J. ChmelarR	6:18	0-0	1	0.14	34	0/0	-0.06	-0.59	D
B. SchneiderD	18:48	0-0	3	0.01	26	1/2	-0.20	-0.65	F
A. SmitsD	14:09	0-0	0	0.00	28	0/0	-0.24	-1.04	F
T. KartyeL	14:47	0-0	0	0.00	29	0/0	-0.26	-1.03	F

xG% = share of expected goals while on the ice · PD/PT = penalties drawn / taken · “in N min” = a per-60 rate far above the raw total. Impact = 0.75 G + 0.7 A1 + 0.55 A2 + 0.075 SOG + 0.05 BLK + 0.15 penalties drawn − 0.15 taken + 0.01 faceoff wins − 0.01 losses + 0.3 individual xG + 0.5 on-ice xG for − 0.5 on-ice xG against. Rating = 65% impact + 35% impact per 60, as a percentile among the skaters in this game.

Scratched, TBL: S. Sabourin, M. Crozier, E. Lilleberg. Scratched, NYR: M. Robertson, M. Rempe, S. Morrow. Referees Frederick L'Ecuyer and Morgan MacPhee; linesmen Travis Gawryletz and Ryan Daisy.

Graded against a league-average game

Report card

Seven dimensions · A+ to F

DimensionTBLNYR

Offense

▸Basis

TBL Created 2.86 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 2 high-danger shots (0.41 xG) and 23 rush shots (1.81 xG).

NYR Created 4.77 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 6 high-danger shots (2.18 xG) and 21 rush shots (2.31 xG).

C+

A+

100

Defense

▸Basis

TBL Allowed 4.77 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 6 high-danger shots (2.18 xG) and 21 rush shots (2.31 xG).

NYR Allowed 2.86 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 2 high-danger shots (0.41 xG) and 23 rush shots (1.81 xG).

C-

Transition

▸Basis

TBL Rush shots 23–21, rush xG 1.81–2.31 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

NYR Rush shots 21–23, rush xG 2.31–1.81 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

C-

C+

Special teams

▸Basis

TBL 0-for-7 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.44 PP xG.

NYR 1-for-2 on the power play (50%; league ≈21%) with 0.37 PP xG.

A+

100

Goaltending

▸Basis

TBL +0.77 goals saved above expected on 24 shots against.

NYR +1.86 goals saved above expected on 24 shots against.

Discipline

▸Basis

TBL Took 3 penalties for 6 PIM vs 8 for 16 on the other side.

NYR Took 8 penalties for 16 PIM vs 3 for 6 on the other side.

A+

100

Luck

Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral

▸Basis

TBL Finishing -1.86 goals vs xG plus +0.77 GSAx of save luck = -1.09 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

NYR Finishing +0.23 goals vs xG plus +1.86 GSAx of save luck = +2.09 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

A-

Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately

What the model flagged

WARNINGTBL

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 21 rush shots worth 2.31 xG (3 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

STRENGTHNYR

Dangerous off the rush

3 goals on 21 rush shots worth 2.31 xG.

WARNINGNYR

Paraded to the penalty box

Took 8 penalties for 16 minutes (opponent: 3 for 6).

Cut the stick infractions — the penalty differential is a controllable.

LUCKTBL

Cold finishing night

Scored 1 on 2.86 xG — -1.86 vs expected. The looks were there; the finish will come back.

LUCKNYR

PDO ran hot

Single-game PDO of 1.080 — the bounces went their way tonight.

LUCKTBL

PDO ran cold

Single-game PDO of 0.920 — the bounces went against them tonight.

76 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

TBL

40 shots

Final

76 shots

NYR

36 shots

TBL NYR GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — TBL left, NYR right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

A. Fox

#23 · D · NYR

0 G · 2 A · 0 SOG · 19:04 on ice

M. Zibanejad

#93 · C · NYR

1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 18:53 on ice · +1

P. Dorofeyev

#16 · R · NYR

1 G · 1 A · 5 SOG · 13:44 on ice

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

Keep going

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