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Motion-blurred skater in a Columbus Blue Jackets sweater
← Thu, Oct 1 · the slate
Breakdown · BUF at CBJ

Blue Jackets pull away from the Sabres

FinalThu, Oct 1
BUFBuffalo Sabres3CBJColumbus Blue Jackets6
The verdict · coin flip

The Blue Jackets won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

BUF 3 · CBJ 6
◆ By the ModelOct 1, 11:06 PMxG: xgboost-0.765Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Columbus beat Buffalo 6–3 in a game where the underlying numbers suggested a much tighter outcome. Expected goals ran 3.10–2.90, nearly even, yet the Blue Jackets' superior conversion rate and power play firepower turned a close contest into a rout.

The disconnect: Columbus overperformed their expected goals by 2.9, finishing at an elite rate while Buffalo's goaltending faltered. U. Luukkonen allowed 1.9 goals more than the model anticipated, a shortfall that compounded an already-difficult night. J. Greaves, by contrast, kept pace with his workload.

Columbus' advantage came from the rush. The Blue Jackets converted four goals on 23 rush chances—a lethal clip that punished Buffalo's defensive transitions. M. Knies led the charge with two goals and an assist, including a power play conversion, while C. Coyle's three assists orchestrated much of the damage. Z. Werenski's two assists bookended the attack.

Buffalo fought back. M. Samuelsson opened the scoring on the rush, J. Quinn and K. Helenius each found the net in the second, but the Sabres could not sustain momentum. Their rush efficiency suffered sharply—only two goals on 28 chances.

The power play was the deciding factor. Columbus converted twice on seven attempts, with S. Monahan's goal on the power play in the third icing the result. Buffalo's special teams never fired.

Three Stars

  • C. Coyle (Columbus) — 3 assists
  • M. Knies (Columbus) — 2 goals, 1 assist
  • Z. Werenski (Columbus) — 2 assists

The goals

  • BUF 1–0, 07:21 of the first. M. Samuelsson, snap shot from 44 feet, a 4% chance by the model (off the rush), past J. Greaves. Assists: N. Ostlund, O. Power. 10 seconds after a BUF giveaway by M. Samuelsson. Win probability moved 15 points.
  • CBJ 1–1, 12:51 of the first. C. Sillinger, snap shot from 25 feet, a 17% chance by the model (off the rush), past U. Luukkonen. Assists: C. Coyle, D. Mateychuk. 10 seconds after a BUF shot by J. Quinn. Win probability moved 17 points.
  • CBJ 1–2, 17:58 of the first on the power play. M. Knies, snap shot from 21 feet, a 19% chance by the model (off the rush), past U. Luukkonen. Assists: C. Coyle, Z. Werenski. Win probability moved 17 points.
  • CBJ 1–3, 18:44 of the first. A. Fantilli, deflection from 24 feet, a 5% chance by the model, past U. Luukkonen. Assists: Z. Werenski, M. Knies. 4 seconds after a CBJ faceoff win by A. Fantilli. Win probability moved 13 points.
  • BUF 2–3, 01:25 of the second. J. Quinn, wrist shot from 21 feet, an 8% chance by the model (off the rush), past J. Greaves. Assists: Z. Benson, N. Ostlund. Win probability moved 13 points.
  • CBJ 2–4, 07:45 of the second. M. Knies, tip-in from 11 feet, a 10% chance by the model (off the rush), past U. Luukkonen. Assists: E. Andrae, K. Johnson. Win probability moved 14 points.
  • BUF 3–4, 13:14 of the second. K. Helenius, snap shot from 22 feet, an 8% chance by the model, past J. Greaves. Assists: R. McLeod, O. Power. 9 seconds after a BUF shot by K. Helenius. Win probability moved 14 points.
  • CBJ 3–5, 14:21 of the third on the power play. S. Monahan, snap shot from 18 feet, a 20% chance by the model (off the rush), past U. Luukkonen. Assists: V. Nichushkin, D. Voronkov. Win probability moved 10 points.
  • CBJ 3–6, 17:53 of the third into an empty net. M. Olivier, wrist shot from 90 feet, an 82% chance by the model. Assists: C. Coyle.

What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Oct 1
BUF
3
CBJ
6

Blue Jackets pull away from the Sabres

Chances 2.9 – 3.1Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Blue Jackets took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value
BUF
2.90
CBJ
3.10
48% of the chances52%

The board read BUF 3, CBJ 6. The chances read BUF 2.9, CBJ 3.1.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
CBJ
+2.9
goals above expected
CBJ3.10 expected · 6 scored
Expected
Scored
BUF2.90 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored

The Blue Jackets scored 2.9 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
The swing
+17
win-probability points
54% → 71% for CBJ
CBJ 100%the game, start to finish
BUF 100%P1 · P2 · P3
CBJP1 17:58 · PP

M. Knies makes it 1–2.

In-game win model · fitted on 5,248 games
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 07:21BUFM. Samuelsson4%1–0
  2. P1 12:51CBJC. Sillinger17%1–1
  3. P1 17:58CBJM. KniesPP19%1–2
  4. P1 18:44CBJA. Fantilli5%1–3
  5. P2 01:25BUFJ. Quinn8%2–3
  6. P2 07:45CBJM. Knies10%2–4
  7. P2 13:14BUFK. Helenius8%3–4
+2 more on the full breakdown
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
BUF
40 shots
3
Final
71 shots
CBJ
31 shots
6
BUF attackCBJ attack
BUF CBJ Goal
40
shots · 3 in
31
shots · 6 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
BUFCBJ
0 / 3
0.58 xG
High danger
3 / 6
1.82 xG
2 / 18
1.76 xG
Medium
2 / 9
0.90 xG
1 / 35
0.56 xG
Low
1 / 24
0.39 xG

The Sabres went 0 for 3 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
C
J. Greaves
−0.1
CBJ · 23/26 · 60:00
Best save · a 20% chance, snap from 28 ft · P3 07:20
F
U. Luukkonen
−2.7
BUF · 17/22 · 59:08
Best save · a 22% chance, snap from 18 ft · P3 05:26
Best skater on the ice
A+
CBJ
M. Knies
L · impact 2.43
16:06
Ice time
2–1
G – A
0.57
Own xG
42%
xG share
Impact · top 4
M. Knies2.4A+
C. Coyle2.1A+
J. Quinn1.7A+
N. Ostlund1.4A
Report card
BUFCBJ
OffenseB-B+
DefenseDD+
TransitionC+C-
Special teamsFA+
GoaltendingFC
DisciplineBD
LuckD-A+
Seven dimensions, A+ to F · basis on the breakdown
Why it went the way it went
Why CBJ won
  1. 01Dangerous off the rush
  2. 02Clinical in the slot
  3. 03Power play cashed in
Why BUF lost
  1. 01Rush defense leaked all night
  2. 02PDO ran cold
  3. 03U. Luukkonen gave one back
Our storyline model · reasoning on the breakdown
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Blue Jackets pull away from the Sabres

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 12 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 6–8
  1. 07:21BUFM. Samuelsson(N. Ostlund, O. Power)1–0

    Snap shot from 44 feet, a 4% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past J. Greaves. 10s after a BUF giveaway by M. Samuelsson. Win probability moved 15 points.On the ice: R. Dahlin, J. Quinn, J. Kulich, Z. Metsa · against E. Gudbranson, S. Monahan, V. Nichushkin, Z. Werenski

  2. 12:51CBJC. Sillinger(C. Coyle, D. Mateychuk)1–1

    Snap shot from 25 feet, a 17% chance (off the rush), past U. Luukkonen. 10s after a BUF shot by J. Quinn. Win probability moved 17 points.On the ice: E. Gudbranson, S. Monahan, V. Nichushkin, J. Christiansen, D. Voronkov · against S. Carrick, M. Grzelcyk, B. Malenstyn, J. Kulich, Z. Metsa

  3. 17:58CBJM. Kniespower play(C. Coyle, Z. Werenski)1–2

    Snap shot from 21 feet, a 19% chance (off the rush), past U. Luukkonen. Win probability moved 17 points.On the ice: C. Coyle, C. Soucy, M. Olivier, C. Sillinger, D. Mateychuk · against M. Grzelcyk, T. Thompson, P. Krebs, J. Doan, Z. Metsa

  4. 18:44CBJA. Fantilli(Z. Werenski, M. Knies)1–3

    Deflection from 24 feet, a 5% chance, a shot that rarely goes in, past U. Luukkonen. 4s after a CBJ faceoff win by A. Fantilli. Win probability moved 13 points.On the ice: S. Monahan, V. Nichushkin, Z. Werenski, C. Garland, E. Andrae · against M. Samuelsson, R. Dahlin, J. Quinn, N. Ostlund, Z. Benson

2ndshots 13–6
  1. 01:25BUFJ. Quinn(Z. Benson, N. Ostlund)2–3

    Wrist shot from 21 feet, an 8% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past J. Greaves. Win probability moved 13 points.On the ice: M. Grzelcyk, R. McLeod, P. Krebs, Z. Metsa, K. Helenius · against S. Monahan, V. Nichushkin, Z. Werenski, D. Voronkov, D. Mateychuk

  2. 07:45CBJM. Knies(E. Andrae, K. Johnson)2–4

    Tip-in from 11 feet, a 10% chance (off the rush), past U. Luukkonen. Win probability moved 14 points.On the ice: D. Heinen, Z. Werenski, C. Garland, R. Lomberg, D. Mateychuk · against R. McLeod, P. Krebs, L. Crevier, O. Power, K. Helenius

  3. 13:14BUFK. Helenius(R. McLeod, O. Power)3–4

    Snap shot from 22 feet, an 8% chance, a shot that rarely goes in, past J. Greaves. 9s after a BUF shot by K. Helenius. Win probability moved 14 points.On the ice: S. Carrick, M. Grzelcyk, B. Malenstyn, P. Krebs, Z. Metsa · against E. Gudbranson, E. Andrae, K. Johnson, M. Knies, A. Fantilli

3rdshots 7–9
  1. 14:21CBJS. Monahanpower play(V. Nichushkin, D. Voronkov)3–5

    Snap shot from 18 feet, a 20% chance (off the rush), past U. Luukkonen. Win probability moved 10 points.On the ice: C. Coyle, Z. Werenski, M. Olivier, C. Sillinger, D. Mateychuk · against T. Thompson, R. Dahlin, J. Doan, O. Power, J. Kulich

  2. 17:53CBJM. Olivierempty net(C. Coyle)3–6

    Wrist shot from 90 feet, an 82% chance, a near-certain one.On the ice: C. Soucy, D. Heinen, C. Garland, R. Lomberg, D. Mateychuk · against M. Grzelcyk, L. Crevier, J. Quinn, N. Ostlund, Z. Benson

score reads BUF–CBJ

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
3.10
CBJ chances
Goals their shots were worth
+2.9
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.100
CBJ puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
41.1%
Shot attempts
Under half — they were outshot
Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.90Expected goals3.10
CBJ 52% of the chance quality
26Shots on goal23
3High-danger chances6
56All attempts (Corsi)39
Adjusted for score: BUF 62% · CBJ 38%
Faceoffs · CBJ won56%off31%neu86%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
BUF0 / 3 · 0.58 xG
CBJ3 / 6 · 1.82 xG
Medium dangermid-range
BUF2 / 18 · 1.76 xG
CBJ2 / 9 · 0.90 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
BUF1 / 35 · 0.56 xG
CBJ1 / 24 · 0.39 xG

CBJ went 3-for-6 from high danger on 1.82 expected goals — 1.2 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
BUF
3 G · 2.90 xG · +0.1
CBJ
6 G · 3.10 xG · +2.9
01234567

BUF finished +0.1 against expected, CBJ +2.9.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
BUF
SNAP2/13
WRIST1/18
SLAP0/3
TIP IN0/2
BACKHAND0/3
WRAP AROUND0/1
DEFLECTED0/0
OTHER0/16
CBJ
SNAP3/18
WRIST1/5
SLAP0/3
TIP IN1/3
BACKHAND0/1
WRAP AROUND0/0
DEFLECTED1/1
OTHER0/8
BUF
CBJ
Off the rush
2 G on 28
2.23 xG
4 G on 23
2.04 xG
Off rebounds
0 G on 1
0.11 xG
0 G on 0
0.00 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: BUF went 2-for-13, CBJ 3-for-18. CBJ scored 4 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
U. Luukkonen
BUF · 17/22 · .773
started · 59:08 · loss
-2.7
saved above expected
F
the night
Attempts faced
30
Avg chance faced
7.6%
Stopped vs expected
0.833 vs 0.924
Rebounds allowed
0
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger2/51.0-1.0
Medium2/90.9-1.1
Low1/160.4-0.6
Shorthanded2/60.6-1.4
Tips & deflections2/40.3-1.7
The save
22% chance stopped, a snap from 18 ft · P3 05:26
The one to have back
5% chance went in, a deflected from 24 ft · P1 18:44

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Greaves
CBJ · 23/26 · .885
started · 60:00 · win
-0.1
saved above expected
C
the night
Attempts faced
40
Avg chance faced
7.2%
Stopped vs expected
0.925 vs 0.928
Rebounds allowed
1
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/30.6+0.6
Medium2/181.8-0.2
Low1/190.6-0.4
Shorthanded0/100.9+0.9
Tips & deflections0/20.1+0.1
The save
20% chance stopped, a snap from 28 ft · P3 07:20
The one to have back
4% chance went in, a snap from 44 ft · P1 07:21

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

Every skater who dressed

Who played

Rated on what they produced and how fast

Best skater on the ice by our rating: M. Knies (CBJ), 16:06 of ice, 2-1, 42% of the expected goals while he was out.

BUF18 skaters
SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
J. QuinnR20:461-059A+
N. OstlundC16:420-241A
O. PowerD25:250-256A
Z. BensonL18:340-158B
K. HeleniusC15:091-032B
J. DoanR19:060-064C
T. ThompsonC19:460-066C
R. DahlinD25:580-056C
M. SamuelssonD18:211-042D
R. McLeodC16:410-131D
J. NorrisC16:190-055D
B. MalenstynL8:110-051D
Z. MetsaD12:540-043D
J.KulichC8:450-031D
L. CrevierD16:140-039F
S. CarrickC7:430-040F
P. KrebsC14:580-029F
M. GrzelcykD14:270-016F
CBJ18 skaters
SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
M. KniesL16:062-142A+
C. CoyleC19:040-350A+
Z. WerenskiD28:460-247A
M. OlivierR14:321-051A
D. HeinenL12:110-075A
D. MateychukD27:280-163B
A. FantilliC17:281-040B
C. SillingerC15:211-051B
S. MonahanC15:311-036B
C. GarlandR12:090-083B
R. LombergLin 9 min9:210-084C
V. NichushkinR15:450-129C
D. VoronkovL10:440-145C
E. AndraeD15:370-115C
C. SoucyD20:150-075C
K. JohnsonC14:530-142D
J. ChristiansenD7:050-063D
E. GudbransonD17:440-022F

xG% = share of expected goals while on the ice · PD/PT = penalties drawn / taken · “in N min” = a per-60 rate far above the raw total. Impact = 0.75 G + 0.7 A1 + 0.55 A2 + 0.075 SOG + 0.05 BLK + 0.15 penalties drawn − 0.15 taken + 0.01 faceoff wins − 0.01 losses + 0.3 individual xG + 0.5 on-ice xG for − 0.5 on-ice xG against. Rating = 65% impact + 35% impact per 60, as a percentile among the skaters in this game.

Scratched, BUF: D. Gilbert, J. Danforth, T. Kozak. Scratched, CBJ: L. Del Bel Belluz. Referees Jon McIsaac and Francis Charron; linesmen Libor Suchanek and Jesse Marquis.

Graded against a league-average game

Report card

Seven dimensions · A+ to F
DimensionBUFCBJ
Offense
▸Basis

BUF Created 2.90 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 3 high-danger shots (0.58 xG) and 28 rush shots (2.23 xG).

CBJ Created 3.10 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 6 high-danger shots (1.82 xG) and 23 rush shots (2.04 xG).

B-
81
B+
87
Defense
▸Basis

BUF Allowed 3.10 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 6 high-danger shots (1.82 xG) and 23 rush shots (2.04 xG).

CBJ Allowed 2.90 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 3 high-danger shots (0.58 xG) and 28 rush shots (2.23 xG).

D
63
D+
69
Transition
▸Basis

BUF Rush shots 28–23, rush xG 2.23–2.04 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

CBJ Rush shots 23–28, rush xG 2.04–2.23 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

C+
79
C-
71
Special teams
▸Basis

BUF 0-for-5 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.90 PP xG.

CBJ 2-for-3 on the power play (67%; league ≈21%) with 0.60 PP xG.

F
55
A+
100
Goaltending
▸Basis

BUF -1.90 goals saved above expected on 22 shots against.

CBJ -0.10 goals saved above expected on 26 shots against.

F
56
C
74
Discipline
▸Basis

BUF Took 4 penalties for 11 PIM vs 6 for 15 on the other side.

CBJ Took 6 penalties for 15 PIM vs 4 for 11 on the other side.

B
85
D
65
Luck

Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral

▸Basis

BUF Finishing +0.10 goals vs xG plus -1.90 GSAx of save luck = -1.80 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

CBJ Finishing +2.90 goals vs xG plus -0.10 GSAx of save luck = +2.80 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

D-
61
A+
97
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
What the model flagged
WARNINGBUF

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 23 rush shots worth 2.04 xG (4 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

LUCKCBJ

Ran hot in front of the net

Scored 6 on 3.10 xG — +2.90 above expected. Shooting luck like that regresses.

STRENGTHCBJ

Dangerous off the rush

4 goals on 23 rush shots worth 2.04 xG.

WARNINGCBJ

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 28 rush shots worth 2.23 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

STRENGTHBUF

Dangerous off the rush

2 goals on 28 rush shots worth 2.23 xG.

LUCKBUF

PDO ran cold

Single-game PDO of 0.900 — the bounces went against them tonight.

71 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
BUF
40 shots
3
Final
71 shots
CBJ
31 shots
6
BUF attackCBJ attack
BUF CBJ Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — BUF left, CBJ right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
C. Coyle
#3 · C · CBJ
0 G · 3 A · 0 SOG · 19:04 on ice · +2
M. Knies
#89 · L · CBJ
2 G · 1 A · 4 SOG · 16:06 on ice
Z. Werenski
#8 · D · CBJ
0 G · 2 A · 3 SOG · 28:46 on ice · +2
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
Keep going

Where to next

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