WARNINGNSH
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 35 rush shots worth 2.82 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
The verdict · earned
The Wild earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
MIN 3 · NSH 1
◆ By the ModelOct 1, 11:08 PMxG: xgboost-0.765Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
Minnesota's 3-1 win over Nashville was decided long before the final buzzer. The Wild's total control on the underlying numbers—both in shot volume and in quality of chances—left no path for a comeback.
The story was expected goals. Minnesota controlled 63% of expected goals—3.72 to Nashville's 2.21. This wasn't a close game dressed up by luck; the Wild were simply better at generating dangerous hockey.
What made it decisive: Minnesota's transition attack overwhelmed Nashville. The Predators gave up 35 rush shots worth 2.82 expected goals, allowing 2 goals on those chances—a gap that widened across all three periods. R. Josi scored on a 4% chance to cut it to 2-1, a moment that could have changed the momentum, but Minnesota tightened immediately.
The Predators held 40% of shot attempts, a respectable number that masked their underlying problem: they generated only 2.21 expected goals to Minnesota's 3.72. When your opponent controls that kind of high-quality scoring area, volume doesn't matter.
Both goalies played above their workload. J. Wallstedt made 19 saves on 20 shots and stopped 1.21 goals more than the expected goals model would have projected. J. Saros faced 30 shots, stopped 27, and outperformed his model by 0.72 goals—a strong game in a losing effort. Yet even Saros's overperformance couldn't overcome the gulf in chances.
Minnesota's 3-1 result understated their dominance. K. Kaprizov's insurance goal in the third sealed it, a rush play that capped Minnesota's control from start to finish.
The goals
- MIN 1–0, 09:35 of the first. N. Foligno, wrist shot from 30 feet, a 5% chance by the model (a rebound), past J. Saros. Assists: M. McCarron, O. Maatta. 3 seconds after a MIN shot by M. McCarron. Win probability moved 16 points.
- MIN 2–0, 13:48 of the first on the power play. B. Coleman, wrist shot from 6 feet, a 14% chance by the model (off the rush), past J. Saros. Assists: B. Brink, D. Yurov. 10 seconds after a MIN blocked shot by M. Wood. Win probability moved 14 points.
- NSH 2–1, 09:23 of the second. R. Josi, slap shot from 31 feet, a 4% chance by the model (off the rush), past J. Wallstedt. Assists: F. Forsberg, S. Stamkos. Win probability moved 16 points.
- MIN 3–1, 04:42 of the third. K. Kaprizov, tip-in from 14 feet, an 8% chance by the model (off the rush), past J. Saros. Assists: Q. Hughes, J. Spurgeon. 10 seconds after a MIN hit by K. Kaprizov. Win probability moved 16 points.
What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.