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← Thu, Oct 1 · the slate
Breakdown · SEA at CGY

Kraken pull away from the Flames

FinalThu, Oct 1
SEASeattle Kraken6CGYCalgary Flames1
The verdict · earned

The Kraken earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

SEA 6 · CGY 1
◆ By the ModelOct 4, 5:34 AMxG: xgboost-0.765Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Seattle crushed Calgary 6-1, with J. Daccord in goal. The Kraken's rush offense converted four times while Calgary's transition defense cracked from the start.

The scoreline masks Calgary's shooting disaster. The Flames generated 3.16 expected goals but scored only once — a 2.16-goal underperformance that lost the game. Seattle outfinished their 4.40 expected goals by 1.60. The Kraken's shots were much cleaner: 0.075 expected goals per attempt versus Calgary's 0.049.

J. Daccord stopped 24 of 25 shots, saving 2.2 goals beyond what that workload should have allowed. D. Wolf faced 32 shots and stopped 26, but fell 1.6 goals short of expected.

The Kraken's rush attack was relentless. From 31 rush chances worth 3.71 expected goals, Seattle converted four times, with Calgary unable to keep pace. The Flames created three rebound opportunities (none converted); Seattle created four (one converted).

Kaapo Kakko's poke at 17:01 of the third, two seconds after J. McCann's shot, came when the game was already beyond Calgary's reach.

Three Stars:

  • V. Dunn (SEA) — 1G, 2A in 20:37
  • J. McCann (SEA) — 3A in 17:54
  • M. Beniers (SEA) — 1G, 1A in 16:58

Final: SEA 6 – CGY 1

The goals

  • SEA 1–0, 09:10 of the first on the power play. J. Eberle, wrist shot from 7 feet, a 16% chance by the model (off the rush), past D. Wolf. Assists: J. McCann, V. Dunn. 2 seconds after a SEA blocked shot by J. Eberle. Win probability moved 16 points.
  • SEA 2–0, 09:42 of the first. V. Dunn, slap shot from 66 feet, a 1% chance by the model, past D. Wolf. Assists: R. Winterton, S. Wright. Win probability moved 14 points.
  • SEA 3–0, 19:30 of the first. F. Gaudreau, wrist shot from 18 feet, a 12% chance by the model (off the rush), past D. Wolf. Assists: K. Kakko, R. Evans. Win probability moved 10 points.
  • SEA 4–0, 03:13 of the third. C. Stephenson, backhander from 10 feet, a 20% chance by the model (off the rush), past D. Wolf. Assists: V. Dunn, J. Daccord.
  • SEA 5–0, 04:04 of the third. M. Beniers, slap shot from 32 feet, a 14% chance by the model (off the rush), past D. Wolf. Assists: J. McCann. 8 seconds after a CGY giveaway by M. Coronato.
  • CGY 5–1, 16:35 of the third. R. Strome, wrist shot from 41 feet, a 3% chance by the model (off the rush), past J. Daccord. Assists: Y. Sharangovich, C. Zary.
  • SEA 6–1, 17:01 of the third. K. Kakko, poke from 6 feet, a 14% chance by the model (a rebound), past D. Wolf. Assists: J. McCann, M. Beniers. 2 seconds after a SEA shot by J. McCann.

What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Oct 1
SEA
6
CGY
1

Kraken pull away from the Flames

Chances 4.4 – 3.2Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Kraken earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
SEA
4.40
CGY
3.16
58% of the chances42%

The board read SEA 6, CGY 1. The chances read SEA 4.4, CGY 3.2.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
SEA
+1.6
goals above expected
SEA4.40 expected · 6 scored
Expected
Scored
CGY3.16 expected · 1 scored
Expected
Scored

The Kraken scored 1.6 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
The swing
+16
win-probability points
46% → 62% for SEA
CGY 100%the game, start to finish
SEA 100%P1 · P2 · P3
SEAP1 09:10 · PP

J. Eberle makes it 1–0.

In-game win model · fitted on 5,248 games
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 09:10SEAJ. EberlePP16%1–0
  2. P1 09:42SEAV. Dunn1%2–0
  3. P1 19:30SEAF. Gaudreau12%3–0
  4. P3 03:13SEAC. Stephenson20%4–0
  5. P3 04:04SEAM. Beniers14%5–0
  6. P3 16:35CGYR. Strome3%5–1
  7. P3 17:01SEAK. Kakko14%6–1
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
SEA
46 shots
6
Final
88 shots
CGY
42 shots
1
SEA attackCGY attack
SEA CGY Goal
46
shots · 6 in
42
shots · 1 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
SEACGY
1 / 5
1.07 xG
High danger
0 / 4
0.88 xG
4 / 25
2.95 xG
Medium
0 / 16
1.79 xG
1 / 29
0.38 xG
Low
1 / 44
0.49 xG

The Flames went 0 for 4 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A
J. Daccord
+2.2
SEA · 24/25 · 59:30
Best save · a 32% chance, wrist from 5 ft · P2 07:37
F
D. Wolf
−1.6
CGY · 26/32 · 59:50
Best save · a 30% chance, snap from 13 ft · P3 15:10
Best skater on the ice
A+
SEA
J. McCann
L · impact 2.65
17:54
Ice time
0–3
G – A
0.28
Own xG
62%
xG share
Impact · top 4
J. McCann2.6A+
V. Dunn2.7A+
J. Eberle2.0A+
K. Kakko1.5A
Report card
SEACGY
OffenseA+B
DefenseDF
TransitionB+D
Special teamsCF
GoaltendingA+F
DisciplineAF
LuckA+F
Seven dimensions, A+ to F · basis on the breakdown
Why it went the way it went
Why SEA won
  1. 01Dangerous off the rush
  2. 02J. Daccord stole it
  3. 03Won on the merits
Why CGY lost
  1. 01Rush defense leaked all night
  2. 02Cold finishing night
  3. 03Paraded to the penalty box
Our storyline model · reasoning on the breakdown
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Kraken pull away from the Flames

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 12 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 6–6
  1. 09:10SEAJ. Eberlepower play(J. McCann, V. Dunn)1–0

    Wrist shot from 7 feet, a 16% chance (off the rush), past D. Wolf. 2s after a SEA block. Win probability moved 16 points.On the ice: A. Larsson, V. Dunn, R. Winterton, S. Wright, B. Catton · against R. Strome, J. Middleton, Y. Sharangovich, C. Zary, Z. Parekh

  2. 09:42SEAV. Dunn(R. Winterton, S. Wright)2–0

    Slap shot from 66 feet, a 1% chance, a shot that rarely goes in, past D. Wolf. Win probability moved 14 points.On the ice: J. McCann, R. Lindgren, J. Mahura, K. Kakko, M. Beniers · against M. Backlund, J. Farabee, K. Bahl, S. Nemec, S. Honzek

  3. 19:30SEAF. Gaudreau(K. Kakko, R. Evans)3–0

    Wrist shot from 18 feet, a 12% chance (off the rush), past D. Wolf. Win probability moved 10 points.On the ice: J. McCann, B. Montour, K. Kakko, M. Beniers, R. Evans · against J. Middleton, Z. Whitecloud, M. Pospisil, A. Klapka, M. Tsyplakov

2ndshots 12–8no goals
    3rdshots 14–11
    1. 03:13SEAC. Stephenson(V. Dunn, J. Daccord)4–0

      Backhander from 10 feet, a 20% chance (off the rush), past D. Wolf.On the ice: J. Eberle, C. Stephenson, B. Montour, B. McMann, R. Evans · against M. Backlund, J. Farabee, K. Bahl, S. Nemec, S. Honzek

    2. 04:04SEAM. Beniers(J. McCann)5–0

      Slap shot from 32 feet, a 14% chance (off the rush), past D. Wolf. 8s after a CGY giveaway by M. Coronato.On the ice: R. Lindgren, J. Mahura, R. Winterton, S. Wright, B. Catton · against R. Strome, J. Middleton, Y. Sharangovich, C. Zary, Z. Parekh

    3. 16:35CGYR. Strome(Y. Sharangovich, C. Zary)5–1

      Wrist shot from 41 feet, a 3% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past J. Daccord.

    4. 17:01SEAK. Kakko(J. McCann, M. Beniers)6–1

      Poke from 6 feet, a 14% chance (a rebound), past D. Wolf. 2s after a SEA shot by J. McCann.

    score reads SEA–CGY

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    4.40
    SEA chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    +1.6
    Finishing
    Goals above what those chances were worth
    1.086
    SEA puck luck
    Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
    48.0%
    Shot attempts
    Under half — they were outshot
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    4.40Expected goals3.16
    SEA 58% of the chance quality
    32Shots on goal25
    5High-danger chances4
    59All attempts (Corsi)64
    Adjusted for score: SEA 41% · CGY 59%
    Faceoffs · CGY won52%off58%neu42%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    SEA1 / 5 · 1.07 xG
    CGY0 / 4 · 0.88 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    SEA4 / 25 · 2.95 xG
    CGY0 / 16 · 1.79 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    SEA1 / 29 · 0.38 xG
    CGY1 / 44 · 0.49 xG

    CGY went 0-for-16 from medium danger on 1.79 expected goals — 1.8 left on the table.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    SEA
    6 G · 4.40 xG · +1.6
    CGY
    1 G · 3.16 xG · -2.2
    01234567

    SEA finished +1.6 against expected, CGY -2.2.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    SEA
    WRIST2/19
    SLAP2/10
    SNAP0/7
    TIP IN0/6
    BACKHAND1/2
    POKE1/2
    OTHER0/13
    CGY
    WRIST1/30
    SLAP0/3
    SNAP0/3
    TIP IN0/3
    BACKHAND0/3
    POKE0/0
    OTHER0/22
    SEA
    CGY
    Off the rush
    4 G on 31
    3.71 xG
    1 G on 30
    2.54 xG
    Off rebounds
    1 G on 4
    0.27 xG
    0 G on 3
    0.38 xG

    Wrist shots carried the volume: SEA went 2-for-19, CGY 1-for-30. SEA scored 4 of theirs off the rush.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    J. Daccord
    SEA · 24/25 · .960
    started · 59:30 · win
    +2.2
    saved above expected
    A
    the night
    Attempts faced
    42
    Avg chance faced
    7.5%
    Stopped vs expected
    0.976 vs 0.925
    Rebounds allowed
    3
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger0/40.9+0.9
    Medium0/161.8+1.8
    Low1/220.5-0.5
    Shorthanded0/10.0+0.0
    Tips & deflections0/30.1+0.1
    The save
    32% chance stopped, a wrist from 5 ft · P2 07:37
    The one to have back
    3% chance went in, a wrist from 41 ft · P3 16:35

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    D. Wolf
    CGY · 26/32 · .812
    started · 59:50 · loss
    -1.6
    saved above expected
    F
    the night
    Attempts faced
    46
    Avg chance faced
    9.6%
    Stopped vs expected
    0.870 vs 0.904
    Rebounds allowed
    4 · 1 scored on
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger1/51.1+0.1
    Medium4/253.0-1.1
    Low1/160.4-0.6
    Shorthanded1/80.9-0.1
    Tips & deflections0/60.5+0.5
    The save
    30% chance stopped, a snap from 13 ft · P3 15:10
    The one to have back
    1% chance went in, a slap from 66 ft · P1 09:42

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    Every skater who dressed

    Who played

    Rated on what they produced and how fast

    Best skater on the ice by our rating: J. McCann (SEA), 17:54 of ice, 0-3, 62% of the expected goals while he was out.

    SEA18 skaters
    SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
    J. McCannL17:540-362A+
    V. DunnD20:371-274A+
    J. EberleR17:521-074A+
    K. KakkoR16:491-123A
    C. StephensonC16:591-067A
    R. WintertonC16:170-157A
    M. BeniersC16:581-125A
    S. WrightC15:550-144B
    F. GaudreauC13:581-035B
    R. EvansD20:420-155B
    B. McMannC16:050-067B
    A. LarssonD18:480-065C
    J. MelansonR9:310-060C
    B. MontourD24:110-050C
    B. CattonC19:000-055C
    C. DouglasC5:580-049D
    R. LindgrenD14:280-030D
    J. MahuraD14:280-018F
    CGY18 skaters
    SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
    C. ZaryC13:190-159A
    R. StromeC16:011-045B
    Y. SharangovichC17:140-143B
    S. NemecD21:180-057B
    S. HonzekL15:320-071C
    M. BacklundC17:070-063C
    J. MiddletonD20:550-049C
    Z. ParekhD17:470-054C
    M. FrostC12:480-043D
    K. BahlD21:070-048D
    Z. WhitecloudD19:140-048D
    M. CoronatoR13:340-036D
    J. FarabeeL17:110-050D
    M. TsyplakovR12:280-023D
    Y. KuznetsovD18:100-026F
    M. GridinR12:100-040F
    M. PospisilC12:400-028F
    A. KlapkaR11:290-025F

    xG% = share of expected goals while on the ice · PD/PT = penalties drawn / taken · “in N min” = a per-60 rate far above the raw total. Impact = 0.75 G + 0.7 A1 + 0.55 A2 + 0.075 SOG + 0.05 BLK + 0.15 penalties drawn − 0.15 taken + 0.01 faceoff wins − 0.01 losses + 0.3 individual xG + 0.5 on-ice xG for − 0.5 on-ice xG against. Rating = 65% impact + 35% impact per 60, as a percentile among the skaters in this game.

    Scratched, SEA: C. Fleury, V. Ottavainen, B. Meyers. Scratched, CGY: J. Hanley, B. Pachal, B. Othmann. Referees Eric Furlatt and Peter MacDougall; linesmen Joe Mahon and Mark Shewchyk.

    Graded against a league-average game

    Report card

    Seven dimensions · A+ to F
    DimensionSEACGY
    Offense
    ▸Basis

    SEA Created 4.40 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 5 high-danger shots (1.07 xG) and 31 rush shots (3.71 xG).

    CGY Created 3.16 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 4 high-danger shots (0.88 xG) and 30 rush shots (2.54 xG).

    A+
    100
    B
    86
    Defense
    ▸Basis

    SEA Allowed 3.16 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 4 high-danger shots (0.88 xG) and 30 rush shots (2.54 xG).

    CGY Allowed 4.40 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 5 high-danger shots (1.07 xG) and 31 rush shots (3.71 xG).

    D
    64
    F
    46
    Transition
    ▸Basis

    SEA Rush shots 31–30, rush xG 3.71–2.54 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

    CGY Rush shots 30–31, rush xG 2.54–3.71 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

    B+
    87
    D
    63
    Special teams
    ▸Basis

    SEA 1-for-5 on the power play (20%; league ≈21%) with 0.93 PP xG.

    CGY 0-for-1 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.04 PP xG.

    C
    75
    F
    50
    Goaltending
    ▸Basis

    SEA +2.16 goals saved above expected on 25 shots against.

    CGY -1.60 goals saved above expected on 32 shots against.

    A+
    97
    F
    59
    Discipline
    ▸Basis

    SEA Took 2 penalties for 4 PIM vs 6 for 12 on the other side.

    CGY Took 6 penalties for 12 PIM vs 2 for 4 on the other side.

    A
    95
    F
    55
    Luck

    Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral

    ▸Basis

    SEA Finishing +1.60 goals vs xG plus +2.16 GSAx of save luck = +3.76 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

    CGY Finishing -2.16 goals vs xG plus -1.60 GSAx of save luck = -3.76 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

    A+
    100
    F
    45
    Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
    What the model flagged
    STRENGTHSEA

    Dangerous off the rush

    4 goals on 31 rush shots worth 3.71 xG.

    WARNINGCGY

    Rush defense leaked all night

    Gave up 31 rush shots worth 3.71 xG (4 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

    Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

    STRENGTHSEA

    J. Daccord stole it

    J. Daccord stopped 24 of 25 (0.960) — +2.16 goals saved above expected in a 5-goal game.

    WARNINGSEA

    Rush defense leaked all night

    Gave up 30 rush shots worth 2.54 xG (1 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

    Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

    STRENGTHCGY

    Dangerous off the rush

    1 goals on 30 rush shots worth 2.54 xG.

    LUCKCGY

    Cold finishing night

    Scored 1 on 3.16 xG — -2.16 vs expected. The looks were there; the finish will come back.

    88 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    SEA
    46 shots
    6
    Final
    88 shots
    CGY
    42 shots
    1
    SEA attackCGY attack
    SEA CGY Goal

    Each club shoots toward its own end — SEA left, CGY right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    V. Dunn
    #29 · D · SEA
    1 G · 2 A · 2 SOG · 20:37 on ice · +1
    J. McCann
    #19 · L · SEA
    0 G · 3 A · 4 SOG · 17:54 on ice · +2
    M. Beniers
    #10 · C · SEA
    1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 16:58 on ice · +2
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    Keep going

    Where to next

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