S. Cossa stole it
S. Cossa stopped 17 of 18 (0.944) — +2.20 goals saved above expected in a 3-goal game.

Utah defeated Columbus 4-1, with S. Cossa's goaltending and the power play providing the edge. N. Schmaltz scored twice—off the rush in the first, then on a third-period power play—while K. Johnson scored the lone response for the Blue Jackets.
The underlying metrics revealed a tighter contest than the scoreboard suggested. Columbus accumulated 3.20 expected goals to Utah's 3.51, a marginal Mammoth advantage. High-danger chances tied at 5-5, meaning S. Cossa's stellar goaltending—saving 2.20 goals above expected—proved decisive.
Utah capitalized on the power play with ruthless efficiency, scoring three times on 14 attempts. M. Sergachev converted early on the man advantage, then D. Guenther and Schmaltz added one each in the third. The Mammoth's finishing with the extra skater built an insurmountable lead before Columbus could mount a comeback.
Columbus created its own opportunities but finished only one of them. The Blue Jackets underperformed their expected goals by 2.20, despite crashing the net effectively and generating four rebound chances. J. Greaves allowed four on 31 shots, a 0.871 save percentage reflecting Utah's overwhelming finishing advantage.
What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.
Mammoth pull away from the Blue Jackets
Dead even on chances. The Mammoth took it anyway.
The board read UTA 4, CBJ 1. The chances read UTA 3.5, CBJ 3.2.
The Blue Jackets left 2.2 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.
M. Sergachev makes it 1–0.
High-danger looks: UTA 0 of 5, CBJ 1 of 5.
Mammoth pull away from the Blue Jackets
A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.
Read the full breakdownSlap shot from 54 feet, a 5% chance, a shot that rarely goes in, past J. Greaves. Win probability moved 17 points.On the ice: N. Schmidt, M. Weegar, L. Crouse, B. Hayton, J. McBain · against Z. Werenski, K. Johnson, M. Knies, D. Mateychuk, A. Fantilli
Snap shot from 28 feet, an 11% chance (off the rush), past J. Greaves. Win probability moved 15 points.On the ice: M. Weegar, K. Stenlund, M. Sergachev, M. Carcone, D. But · against Z. Werenski, K. Johnson, M. Knies, D. Mateychuk, A. Fantilli
Snap shot from 25 feet, a 20% chance (off the rush), past S. Cossa. 6s after a UTA giveaway by V. Trocheck. Win probability moved 15 points.On the ice: S. Monahan, V. Nichushkin, Z. Werenski, C. Garland, D. Mateychuk · against A. Lee, A. Peeke, D. Guenther, L. Cooley, D. Simashev
Slap shot from 31 feet, a 6% chance, a shot that rarely goes in, past J. Greaves. 8s after a UTA shot by N. Schmaltz. Win probability moved 16 points.On the ice: M. Weegar, L. Crouse, M. Sergachev, B. Hayton, J. McBain · against E. Gudbranson, D. Heinen, C. Garland, R. Lomberg, J. Christiansen
Wrist shot from 13 feet, a 16% chance, past J. Greaves. 8s after a UTA miss by D. Guenther.
score reads UTA–CBJ
CBJ went 0-for-15 from medium danger on 1.71 expected goals — 1.7 left on the table.
UTA finished +0.5 against expected, CBJ -2.2.
Wrist shots carried the volume: UTA went 1-for-18, CBJ 0-for-15.
Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.
The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →
A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5
A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5
Best skater on the ice by our rating: D. Guenther (UTA), 16:51 of ice, 1-2, 58% of the expected goals while he was out.
| Skater | TOI | G-A | SOG | ixG | xG% | PD/PT | Impact | /60 | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. GuentherR | 16:51 | 1-2 | 5 | 0.74 | 58 | 0/0 | 2.75 | 9.78 | A+ |
| N. SchmaltzC | 17:39 | 2-0 | 8 | 1.02 | 62 | 0/0 | 2.71 | 9.23 | A+ |
| C. KellerR | 17:04 | 0-2 | 2 | 0.39 | 45 | 1/0 | 1.69 | 5.95 | A+ |
| L. CooleyC | 16:48 | 0-2 | 1 | 0.11 | 57 | 0/0 | 1.63 | 5.81 | A |
| M. SergachevD | 22:00 | 1-1 | 4 | 0.09 | 54 | 0/1 | 1.62 | 4.42 | A |
| M. CarconeL | 13:03 | 0-0 | 3 | 0.34 | 83 | 1/0 | 0.85 | 3.89 | A |
| A. PeekeD | 15:03 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.12 | 61 | 0/0 | 0.44 | 1.76 | B |
| K. StenlundC | 14:07 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.07 | 76 | 0/0 | 0.43 | 1.82 | B |
| D. ButL | 11:11 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.14 | 87 | 0/0 | 0.39 | 2.08 | B |
| M. WeegarD | 20:21 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.07 | 62 | 0/0 | 0.44 | 1.29 | B |
| J. McBainC | 14:34 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 59 | 1/0 | 0.32 | 1.30 | B |
| J. MarinoD | 20:28 | 0-1 | 0 | 0.00 | 24 | 0/1 | 0.21 | 0.63 | C |
| A. LeeL | 13:47 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.32 | 37 | 1/0 | 0.14 | 0.61 | C |
| L. CrouseL | 13:37 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.00 | 38 | 0/0 | 0.13 | 0.56 | C |
| B. HaytonC | 13:47 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 41 | 0/0 | -0.05 | -0.22 | D |
| N. SchmidtD | 21:33 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 40 | 0/0 | -0.09 | -0.25 | F |
| D. SimashevD | 16:40 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.11 | 42 | 0/0 | -0.15 | -0.53 | F |
| V. TrocheckC | 17:27 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 30 | 0/0 | -0.21 | -0.72 | F |
| Skater | TOI | G-A | SOG | ixG | xG% | PD/PT | Impact | /60 | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. JohnsonC | 17:14 | 1-0 | 5 | 0.49 | 45 | 0/0 | 1.23 | 4.27 | A |
| M. KniesL | 17:44 | 0-1 | 1 | 0.20 | 49 | 1/0 | 1.01 | 3.41 | A |
| C. SillingerC | 13:21 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.60 | 63 | 0/0 | 0.54 | 2.43 | B |
| M. OlivierR | 15:23 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.38 | 83 | 0/0 | 0.54 | 2.10 | B |
| V. NichushkinR | 16:47 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.15 | 48 | 0/0 | 0.28 | 0.98 | C |
| S. MonahanC | 16:53 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.17 | 66 | 0/0 | 0.26 | 0.91 | C |
| Z. WerenskiD | 31:43 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.06 | 47 | 0/0 | 0.26 | 0.50 | C |
| D. MateychukD | 28:07 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.04 | 63 | 0/2 | 0.18 | 0.38 | C |
| C. SoucyD | 16:28 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.01 | 56 | 0/0 | 0.13 | 0.47 | C |
| R. LombergL | 9:06 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.15 | 33 | 0/0 | 0.08 | 0.55 | D |
| C. CoyleC | 15:24 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.19 | 41 | 1/0 | 0.10 | 0.38 | D |
| C. GarlandR | 12:43 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.01 | 53 | 0/0 | 0.02 | 0.11 | D |
| A. FantilliC | 20:31 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.28 | 35 | 0/0 | 0.01 | 0.04 | D |
| J. ChristiansenD | 9:47 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 35 | 0/0 | -0.02 | -0.12 | D |
| D. VoronkovL | 12:50 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.11 | 46 | 0/1 | -0.04 | -0.20 | D |
| E. AndraeD | 13:43 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 45 | 0/1 | -0.07 | -0.28 | D |
| D. HeinenL | 11:25 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.36 | 20 | 0/0 | -0.08 | -0.40 | F |
| E. GudbransonD | 16:35 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 19 | 0/0 | -0.26 | -0.94 | F |
xG% = share of expected goals while on the ice · PD/PT = penalties drawn / taken · “in N min” = a per-60 rate far above the raw total. Impact = 0.75 G + 0.7 A1 + 0.55 A2 + 0.075 SOG + 0.05 BLK + 0.15 penalties drawn − 0.15 taken + 0.01 faceoff wins − 0.01 losses + 0.3 individual xG + 0.5 on-ice xG for − 0.5 on-ice xG against. Rating = 65% impact + 35% impact per 60, as a percentile among the skaters in this game.
Scratched, UTA: L. O'Brien, K. Yamamoto, N. DeSimone. Scratched, CBJ: L. Del Bel Belluz. Referees Kelly Sutherland and Brandon Schrader; linesmen CJ Murray and Kilian McNamara.
UTA Created 3.51 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 5 high-danger shots (1.20 xG) and 23 rush shots (2.23 xG).
CBJ Created 3.20 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 5 high-danger shots (1.24 xG) and 23 rush shots (2.01 xG).
UTA Allowed 3.20 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 5 high-danger shots (1.24 xG) and 23 rush shots (2.01 xG).
CBJ Allowed 3.51 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 5 high-danger shots (1.20 xG) and 23 rush shots (2.23 xG).
UTA Rush shots 23–23, rush xG 2.23–2.01 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
CBJ Rush shots 23–23, rush xG 2.01–2.23 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
UTA 3-for-4 on the power play (75%; league ≈21%) with 1.34 PP xG.
CBJ 0-for-2 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.24 PP xG.
UTA +2.20 goals saved above expected on 18 shots against.
CBJ -0.49 goals saved above expected on 31 shots against.
UTA Took 2 penalties for 4 PIM vs 4 for 8 on the other side.
CBJ Took 4 penalties for 8 PIM vs 2 for 4 on the other side.
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
UTA Finishing +0.49 goals vs xG plus +2.20 GSAx of save luck = +2.69 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
CBJ Finishing -2.20 goals vs xG plus -0.49 GSAx of save luck = -2.69 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
S. Cossa stopped 17 of 18 (0.944) — +2.20 goals saved above expected in a 3-goal game.
Gave up 23 rush shots worth 2.23 xG (1 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Scored 1 on 3.20 xG — -2.20 vs expected. The looks were there; the finish will come back.
3-for-4 on the power play (75%) on 1.34 PP xG.
Gave up 23 rush shots worth 2.01 xG (1 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
1 goals on 23 rush shots worth 2.23 xG.
Each club shoots toward its own end — UTA left, CBJ right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.
The model sees no edge here. Utah and Columbus project to 3.2 goals apiece, with the Blue Jackets at exactly 50% win probability—a pick'em that your gut should trust.
Utah's advantage lives in the underlying play. The Mammoth own 65.9% of expected goals at 5-on-5, well ahead of Columbus at 51.7%. They also drive shot attempts at 60.8% to the Blue Jackets' 43.5%. That's a workload tilt in Utah's favor—they'll spend this game in Columbus's end.
The catch is regression. Both teams are running hotter than their chances suggest—Utah's performance ratio sits at 1.143, Columbus's at 1.109. That kind of outscoring doesn't last. The Mammoth's territorial edge remains an asset, but don't expect their recent scoring pace to hold.
Goaltending introduces uncertainty with tiny sample sizes. K. Vejmelka has posted a 100.0% save percentage in 1 game. He's also allowed 2.0 fewer goals than expected for his workload. J. Greaves, in 1 game, has an 88.5% save percentage. He's allowed 0.4 more goals than expected for his workload. One game is noise—either could revert to baseline.
Both teams have found their scoring lane in the slot. Utah has buried 10 goals on 58 slot shots, a 17% conversion rate. Columbus is even sharper at 22%, with 7 goals on 32 shots. Deny those lanes, and you deny their best path to offense.
CBJ by 0 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score UTA 3.2–3.2 CBJ; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
UTA holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.143 vs 1.109) says UTA has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
The Mammoth own the underlying play — 65.9% 5v5 xG vs 51.7%.
The Mammoth drive Corsi at 60.8% — expect territorial tilt.
The Blue Jackets' PDO is 1.109 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
The Mammoth's PDO is 1.143 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.