WARNINGSEA
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 28 rush shots worth 2.94 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
The verdict · earned
The Oilers earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
SEA 1 · EDM 3
◆ By the ModelOct 3, 9:55 PMxG: xgboost-0.765Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
Edmonton beat Seattle 3-1. Connor McDavid scored the clincher into an empty net late in the third, but the Oilers' dominance through transition arrived much earlier.
The expected goals split reveals how wide the gap actually was. Edmonton controlled 67% of 5v5 expected goals (3.95–1.94), but that understates the dominance — they held only 56% of shot attempts, meaning their shots were far more dangerous per-shot. Seattle's 20 attempts generated 1.94 expected goals; Edmonton's 25 added up to 3.95. The Kraken's offense, such as it was, happened on thin ice.
Edmonton was lethal in transition. The Oilers generated 28 rush chances worth 2.94 expected goals and converted two of them, essentially deciding the game by the end of the second period. Seattle created 3 rebound opportunities and cashed none of them — the effort was there, the execution wasn't.
P. Grubauer stopped 1.9 goals above expected, a 22-save, 0.917 save percentage night that was among Seattle's best hopes. It couldn't matter. When one team controls play entirely in open ice and converts rush chances, a goalie's excellence becomes background noise. D. Levi made 19 saves on 20 shots for a 0.950 save percentage, above expected as well, but faced a far lighter workload.
Seattle won the special teams battle — one power-play goal, no penalties in the third. Edmonton's penalty kill was a liability. Neither of it mattered once Edmonton seized transition. The Kraken were running catch-up by the second intermission.
The goals
- EDM 0–1, 02:51 of the first. O. Michaels, wrist shot from 24 feet, a 4% chance by the model (off the rush), past P. Grubauer. Assists: A. Formenton. Win probability moved 14 points.
- SEA 1–1, 09:06 of the second on the power play. B. McMann, wrist shot from 19 feet, an 8% chance by the model (off the rush), past D. Levi. Assists: J. Eberle, C. Stephenson. Win probability moved 21 points.
- EDM 1–2, 17:33 of the third. L. Draisaitl, snap shot from 13 feet, a 24% chance by the model (off the rush), past P. Grubauer. Assists: C. McDavid, R. Shea. 10 seconds after an EDM missed shot by R. Shea. Win probability moved 40 points.
- EDM 1–3, 18:55 of the third into an empty net. C. McDavid, wrist shot from 89 feet, a 51% chance by the model. Assists: V. Podkolzin. 1 second after a SEA hit by B. Montour.
What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.