I. Sorokin stole it
I. Sorokin stopped 37 of 37 (1.000) — +4.06 goals saved above expected in a 6-goal game.

I. Sorokin was untouchable. The Islanders' rush game was lethal — B. Horvat, V. Eklund, O. Palat, and C. Cizikas each scored in transition while New Jersey's defense leaked opportunities every period. S. Holmstrom and B. Schenn added goals, with Cizikas capping it shorthanded.
Expected goals split 4.63–4.06 in the Islanders' favor, masking the final score's margin. Sorokin saved 4.06 above his workload on 37 saves; the Devils' N. Daws gave up 1.4 more than expected and allowed 0 of 6 high-danger chances to count.
The Islanders scored six: Holmstrom at 03:32 of the second, Schenn on a rebound at 05:00, Horvat on the power play at 12:08, Eklund at 11:32 of the third, Palat at 12:14, and Cizikas shorthanded at 18:41 on a 40% chance. The Islanders held 46% of shot attempts. M. Schaefer led with 2 assists in 20:34.
What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.
Islanders shut out the Devils, 6-0
The Islanders earned this one.
The board read NJD 0, NYI 6. The chances read NJD 4.1, NYI 4.6.
The Devils left 4.1 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.
S. Holmstrom makes it 0–1.
The Devils went 0 for 6 from the slot.
Islanders shut out the Devils, 6-0
A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.
Read the full breakdownWrist shot from 9 feet, a 17% chance (off the rush), past N. Daws. Win probability moved 19 points.On the ice: K. Palmieri, B. Horvat, L. Stanley, A. Romanov, E. Heineman · against D. Hamilton, A. Mantha, J. Siegenthaler, J. Bratt, N. Hischier
Snap shot from 7 feet, a 20% chance (a rebound), past N. Daws. 2s after a NYI miss by V. Eklund. Win probability moved 13 points.On the ice: C. Cizikas, O. Palat, T. DeAngelo, L. Stanley, M. Maccelli · against B. Pesce, E. Rodrigues, A. Gritsyuk, D. Mercer, L. Hughes
Wrist shot from 14 feet, an 11% chance (off the rush), past N. Daws. 5s after a NYI takeaway by M. Schaefer. Win probability moved 7 points.On the ice: J. Pageau, A. Pelech, A. Duclair, S. Holmstrom, M. Schaefer · against D. Hamilton, A. Mantha, J. Siegenthaler, J. Bratt, J. Hughes
Wrist shot from 15 feet, a 19% chance (off the rush), past N. Daws.
Snap shot from 12 feet, a 22% chance (off the rush), past N. Daws.
Wrist shot from 5 feet, a 41% chance (a rebound), past N. Daws. 1s after a NYI shot by C. Cizikas.
score reads NJD–NYI
NJD went 0-for-23 from medium danger on 2.17 expected goals — 2.2 left on the table.
NJD finished -4.1 against expected, NYI +1.4.
Wrist shots carried the volume: NJD went 0-for-38, NYI 4-for-27. NYI scored 4 of theirs off the rush.
Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.
The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →
A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5
A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5
Best skater on the ice by our rating: C. Cizikas (NYI), 14:05 of ice, 1-1, 46% of the expected goals while he was out.
| Skater | TOI | G-A | SOG | ixG | xG% | PD/PT | Impact | /60 | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. MeierR | 19:57 | 0-0 | 6 | 0.65 | 62 | 1/0 | 0.96 | 2.89 | B |
| L. EvangelistaR | 18:55 | 0-0 | 3 | 0.57 | 67 | 1/0 | 0.92 | 2.92 | B |
| J. HughesC | 21:01 | 0-0 | 3 | 0.66 | 65 | 0/0 | 0.83 | 2.36 | B |
| B. PesceD | 18:52 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.01 | 63 | 0/0 | 0.53 | 1.69 | B |
| N. HischierC | 19:19 | 0-0 | 3 | 0.39 | 57 | 0/0 | 0.45 | 1.39 | C |
| A. GritsyukR | 15:22 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.26 | 62 | 0/0 | 0.35 | 1.38 | C |
| J. BrattL | 15:53 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.19 | 57 | 0/0 | 0.35 | 1.31 | C |
| L. HughesD | 21:41 | 0-0 | 3 | 0.03 | 60 | 0/1 | 0.31 | 0.86 | C |
| C. GlassC | 11:40 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.30 | 40 | 1/0 | 0.22 | 1.15 | C |
| D. ChisholmD | 12:40 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.01 | 56 | 1/0 | 0.21 | 1.01 | C |
| J. SiegenthalerD | 21:08 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.06 | 46 | 1/0 | 0.23 | 0.64 | C |
| D. HamiltonD | 22:17 | 0-0 | 3 | 0.23 | 42 | 0/0 | 0.23 | 0.62 | D |
| D. MercerC | 15:02 | 0-0 | 3 | 0.40 | 36 | 0/0 | 0.19 | 0.75 | D |
| E. RodriguesC | 16:14 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.12 | 52 | 0/0 | 0.14 | 0.51 | D |
| S. NoesenR | 8:48 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.06 | 39 | 0/0 | 0.04 | 0.27 | D |
| A. ManthaR | 15:08 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 50 | 0/0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | D |
| B. DillonD | 13:13 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.04 | 35 | 0/0 | -0.06 | -0.29 | F |
| A. LombardiC | 8:13 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.08 | 35 | 0/2 | -0.35 | -2.56 | F |
| Skater | TOI | G-A | SOG | ixG | xG% | PD/PT | Impact | /60 | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. CizikasC | 14:05 | 1-1 | 4 | 1.26 | 46 | 0/0 | 2.09 | 8.90 | A+ |
| B. SchennC | 14:40 | 1-1 | 4 | 0.69 | 48 | 0/0 | 1.77 | 7.23 | A+ |
| S. HolmstromR | 16:46 | 1-1 | 1 | 0.17 | 40 | 1/0 | 1.67 | 5.96 | A+ |
| M. SchaeferD | 20:34 | 0-2 | 2 | 0.11 | 63 | 0/0 | 1.71 | 5.00 | A |
| B. HorvatC | 18:31 | 1-0 | 4 | 0.32 | 71 | 0/1 | 1.55 | 5.03 | A |
| V. EklundR | 12:32 | 1-1 | 1 | 0.40 | 38 | 0/1 | 1.26 | 6.04 | A |
| O. PalatL | 12:27 | 1-0 | 4 | 0.46 | 49 | 0/0 | 1.21 | 5.85 | A |
| M. MaccelliL | 14:07 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.23 | 78 | 2/0 | 0.98 | 4.18 | A |
| J. PageauC | 14:49 | 0-1 | 2 | 0.11 | 30 | 0/0 | 0.77 | 3.11 | B |
| C. RitchieC | 13:42 | 0-1 | 1 | 0.25 | 40 | 0/0 | 0.67 | 2.93 | B |
| A. PelechD | 19:53 | 0-1 | 0 | 0.01 | 39 | 0/0 | 0.49 | 1.47 | B |
| L. StanleyD | 19:10 | 0-1 | 1 | 0.00 | 38 | 0/1 | 0.29 | 0.92 | C |
| E. HeinemanL | 16:33 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.36 | 43 | 0/0 | 0.13 | 0.47 | D |
| A. RomanovD | 19:13 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 48 | 0/0 | 0.10 | 0.33 | D |
| K. PalmieriC | 14:37 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.21 | 54 | 0/2 | 0.03 | 0.12 | D |
| A. DuclairL | 11:37 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 40 | 0/0 | -0.03 | -0.15 | F |
| T. DeAngeloD | 17:44 | 0-0 | 3 | 0.04 | 34 | 0/0 | -0.05 | -0.18 | F |
| R. PulockD | 19:00 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 32 | 0/0 | -0.27 | -0.84 | F |
xG% = share of expected goals while on the ice · PD/PT = penalties drawn / taken · “in N min” = a per-60 rate far above the raw total. Impact = 0.75 G + 0.7 A1 + 0.55 A2 + 0.075 SOG + 0.05 BLK + 0.15 penalties drawn − 0.15 taken + 0.01 faceoff wins − 0.01 losses + 0.3 individual xG + 0.5 on-ice xG for − 0.5 on-ice xG against. Rating = 65% impact + 35% impact per 60, as a percentile among the skaters in this game.
Scratched, NJD: C. Brown, J. Boqvist, R. Poirier. Scratched, NYI: S. Mayfield, K. MacLean, M. Kessel. Referees Jean Hebert and Graedy Hamilton; linesmen Travis Gawryletz and Caleb Apperson.
NJD Created 4.06 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 6 high-danger shots (1.30 xG) and 34 rush shots (2.68 xG).
NYI Created 4.63 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 12 high-danger shots (2.89 xG) and 26 rush shots (3.47 xG).
NJD Allowed 4.63 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 12 high-danger shots (2.89 xG) and 26 rush shots (3.47 xG).
NYI Allowed 4.06 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 6 high-danger shots (1.30 xG) and 34 rush shots (2.68 xG).
NJD Rush shots 34–26, rush xG 2.68–3.47 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
NYI Rush shots 26–34, rush xG 3.47–2.68 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
NJD 0-for-5 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.55 PP xG.
NYI 1-for-3 on the power play (33%; league ≈21%) with 0.82 PP xG.
NJD -1.37 goals saved above expected on 32 shots against.
NYI +4.06 goals saved above expected on 37 shots against.
NJD Took 3 penalties for 6 PIM vs 5 for 10 on the other side.
NYI Took 5 penalties for 10 PIM vs 3 for 6 on the other side.
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
NJD Finishing -4.06 goals vs xG plus -1.37 GSAx of save luck = -5.43 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
NYI Finishing +1.37 goals vs xG plus +4.06 GSAx of save luck = +5.43 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
I. Sorokin stopped 37 of 37 (1.000) — +4.06 goals saved above expected in a 6-goal game.
Gave up 26 rush shots worth 3.47 xG (4 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Scored 0 on 4.06 xG — -4.06 vs expected. The looks were there; the finish will come back.
4 goals on 26 rush shots worth 3.47 xG.
Single-game PDO of 1.120 — the bounces went their way tonight.
Single-game PDO of 0.880 — the bounces went against them tonight.
Each club shoots toward its own end — NJD left, NYI right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.
The model gives New Jersey a 3.3-to-3.2 projected edge and a 52% win probability—which is to say, almost no edge at all. This is a pure coin-flip game.
The Devils have built that advantage entirely on underlying play. They generate 72.4% of expected goals, dominating the chance battle. They drive territorial possession at 67.3% in shot attempts, smothering the Islanders. But the margin is thin because New York's underlying metrics suggest a team due for positive regression. The Islanders are running cold on both save percentage and shooting percentage—the kind of luck that typically swings back positive.
Goaltending breaks no ties. J. Allen's 92.0% save percentage is 0.2 below expected, while I. Sorokin's 92.3% is 0.8 above—a negligible difference.
Slot scoring is where the Devils separate. New Jersey converts 14% of slot chances while New York converts 9%—a differential that decides one-goal games.
NJD by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score NJD 3.3–3.2 NYI; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
NJD holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.011 vs 0.944) says NJD has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
The Devils own the underlying play — 72.4% 5v5 xG vs 51.2%.
The Devils drive Corsi at 67.3% — expect territorial tilt.
The Islanders' PDO is 0.944 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Win probability splits 48%–52% — margins decide this one.
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.