Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 25 rush shots worth 2.55 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

Minnesota beat Boston 4-1. J. Wallstedt stole the game and the Bruins' offense failed to capitalize, turning what should have been competitive into a rout.
The numbers tell that story precisely. Boston generated 3.00 expected goals and scored once, falling two goals short of what their workload should have produced. Wallstedt saved 2.00 more goals than his workload suggested, his performance alone accounting for the margin's size. The Wild held 53% of shot attempts (30-27). Minnesota led 59% of expected goals at 5v5 (4.33–3.00). Minnesota also dominated the dangerous-chance battle, 9-4.
K. Kaprizov opened the scoring on the power play at 6:11 of the second with a snap shot from 10 feet (a 20% chance off the rush). Q. Hughes extended the lead at 12:28, also on the advantage, with a wrist shot from 40 feet (6% model probability). J. Spurgeon made it 3-1 in the third from 47 feet, another low-percentage chance that beat the model. Kaprizov closed it into the empty net.
M. DiPietro saved 1.33 more goals than his workload suggested and kept the Bruins competitive through two periods despite being outshot in quality. T. Jeannot's rush goal tied it early, but Minnesota pulled away through relentless transition play — 25 rush shots worth 2.55 expected goals, two finding the net. Boston's defensive gaps showed every period.
What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.
Wild pull away from the Bruins
The Wild earned this one.
The board read BOS 1, MIN 4. The chances read BOS 3.0, MIN 4.3.
The Bruins left 2.0 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.
Q. Hughes makes it 1–2.
The Bruins went 0 for 4 from the slot.
Wild pull away from the Bruins
A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.
Read the full breakdownWrist shot from 16 feet, an 11% chance (off the rush), past J. Wallstedt. Win probability moved 14 points.On the ice: J. Aspirot, M. Khusnutdinov, M. Lohrei, F. Minten, J. Hagens · against N. Foligno, Z. Bogosian, M. Foligno, M. McCarron, D. Hunt
Snap shot from 10 feet, a 20% chance (off the rush), past M. DiPietro. Win probability moved 21 points.On the ice: J. Spurgeon, R. Hartman, Y. Trenin, Q. Hughes, B. Brink · against H. Lindholm, W. Borgen, M. Khusnutdinov, F. Minten, J. Hagens
Wrist shot from 40 feet, a 6% chance, a shot that rarely goes in, past M. DiPietro. 6s after a MIN faceoff win by R. Hartman. Win probability moved 22 points.On the ice: J. Brodin, O. Maatta, R. Hartman, Y. Trenin, B. Brink · against J. Aspirot, M. Khusnutdinov, M. Lohrei, F. Minten, J. Hagens
Wrist shot from 47 feet, a 1% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past M. DiPietro. Win probability moved 14 points.On the ice: N. Foligno, M. Foligno, J. Brodin, O. Maatta, M. McCarron · against H. Lindholm, P. Zacha, W. Borgen, M. Geekie, C. Mittelstadt
Backhander from 68 feet, a 22% chance. 3s after a BOS giveaway by M. Lohrei.
score reads BOS–MIN
BOS went 0-for-4 from high danger on 0.88 expected goals — 0.9 left on the table.
BOS finished -2.0 against expected, MIN -0.3.
Wrist shots carried the volume: BOS went 1-for-26, MIN 2-for-17. MIN scored 2 of theirs off the rush.
Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.
The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →
A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5
A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5
Best skater on the ice by our rating: K. Kaprizov (MIN), 18:49 of ice, 2-0, 75% of the expected goals while he was out.
| Skater | TOI | G-A | SOG | ixG | xG% | PD/PT | Impact | /60 | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. JeannotL | 8:10 | 1-0 | 1 | 0.12 | 25 | 0/0 | 0.85 | 6.25 | A |
| M. KastelicC | 10:59 | 0-1 | 1 | 0.01 | 11 | 0/0 | 0.74 | 4.03 | B |
| D. PastrnakR | 21:02 | 0-0 | 5 | 0.68 | 55 | 0/0 | 0.69 | 1.96 | B |
| S. KuralyC | 10:36 | 0-0 | 3 | 0.09 | 66 | 0/0 | 0.40 | 2.24 | B |
| J. HagensC | 13:43 | 0-0 | 3 | 0.47 | 56 | 0/0 | 0.44 | 1.91 | B |
| C. CliftonD | 18:07 | 0-1 | 0 | 0.00 | 33 | 0/1 | 0.31 | 1.03 | C |
| J. PeterkaR | 20:38 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.32 | 56 | 0/0 | 0.31 | 0.89 | C |
| J. AspirotD | 16:37 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.02 | 62 | 0/0 | 0.28 | 1.02 | C |
| F. MintenC | 14:28 | 0-0 | 3 | 0.35 | 48 | 0/0 | 0.26 | 1.09 | C |
| M. GeekieC | 18:45 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.27 | 44 | 1/0 | 0.24 | 0.77 | C |
| M. LohreiD | 20:59 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.07 | 67 | 0/0 | 0.18 | 0.50 | D |
| M. KhusnutdinovC | 12:43 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.14 | 39 | 0/0 | 0.01 | 0.04 | D |
| N. ZadorovD | 15:47 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.02 | 28 | 0/1 | -0.06 | -0.22 | D |
| C. MittelstadtC | 17:18 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.14 | 43 | 0/1 | -0.07 | -0.24 | D |
| E. LindholmC | 16:56 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.15 | 13 | 0/0 | -0.11 | -0.39 | D |
| P. ZachaC | 19:27 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.11 | 30 | 0/0 | -0.16 | -0.49 | F |
| H. LindholmD | 21:38 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.04 | 27 | 0/0 | -0.45 | -1.25 | F |
| W. BorgenD | 19:18 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 21 | 0/0 | -0.44 | -1.37 | F |
| Skater | TOI | G-A | SOG | ixG | xG% | PD/PT | Impact | /60 | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. KaprizovL | 18:49 | 2-0 | 3 | 1.17 | 75 | 0/0 | 2.41 | 7.69 | A+ |
| Q. HughesD | 22:23 | 1-1 | 4 | 0.28 | 72 | 0/0 | 2.32 | 6.22 | A+ |
| M. ShabanovR | 14:55 | 0-1 | 0 | 0.08 | 79 | 1/0 | 1.38 | 5.57 | A+ |
| M. BoldyL | 18:05 | 0-0 | 4 | 1.42 | 70 | 2/0 | 1.36 | 4.50 | A |
| M. McCarronC | 16:58 | 0-1 | 4 | 0.38 | 54 | 0/0 | 1.19 | 4.22 | A |
| B. BrinkR | 11:17 | 0-1 | 1 | 0.02 | 63 | 0/0 | 0.94 | 5.00 | A |
| J. Eriksson EkC | 17:47 | 0-1 | 2 | 0.25 | 67 | 0/0 | 0.98 | 3.30 | A |
| J. SpurgeonD | 20:06 | 1-0 | 1 | 0.01 | 56 | 0/1 | 0.85 | 2.53 | B |
| R. HartmanR | 11:30 | 0-1 | 0 | 0.00 | 63 | 0/1 | 0.63 | 3.29 | B |
| Y. TreninC | 15:03 | 0-0 | 4 | 0.26 | 56 | 0/0 | 0.43 | 1.71 | B |
| J. BrodinD | 21:39 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 76 | 0/0 | 0.30 | 0.83 | C |
| O. MaattaD | 23:13 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.09 | 69 | 0/0 | 0.28 | 0.73 | C |
| M. FolignoL | 12:04 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.11 | 61 | 0/0 | 0.19 | 0.96 | C |
| D. YurovR | 12:41 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.11 | 54 | 0/0 | 0.19 | 0.89 | D |
| B. ColemanL | 13:34 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.14 | 47 | 0/0 | 0.16 | 0.72 | D |
| N. FolignoL | 13:53 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.00 | 61 | 0/0 | 0.14 | 0.60 | D |
| D. HuntD | 14:09 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.01 | 21 | 0/1 | -0.19 | -0.79 | F |
| Z. BogosianD | 15:54 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 26 | 0/0 | -0.28 | -1.04 | F |
xG% = share of expected goals while on the ice · PD/PT = penalties drawn / taken · “in N min” = a per-60 rate far above the raw total. Impact = 0.75 G + 0.7 A1 + 0.55 A2 + 0.075 SOG + 0.05 BLK + 0.15 penalties drawn − 0.15 taken + 0.01 faceoff wins − 0.01 losses + 0.3 individual xG + 0.5 on-ice xG for − 0.5 on-ice xG against. Rating = 65% impact + 35% impact per 60, as a percentile among the skaters in this game.
Scratched, BOS: C. McAvoy, M. Eyssimont, F. Brunet. Scratched, MIN: N. Sturm, D. Spacek. Referees Francois St-Laurent and Carter Sandlak; linesmen Brandon Gawryletz and Ben O'Quinn.
BOS Created 3.00 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 4 high-danger shots (0.88 xG) and 25 rush shots (2.46 xG).
MIN Created 4.33 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 9 high-danger shots (2.50 xG) and 25 rush shots (2.55 xG).
BOS Allowed 4.33 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 9 high-danger shots (2.50 xG) and 25 rush shots (2.55 xG).
MIN Allowed 3.00 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 4 high-danger shots (0.88 xG) and 25 rush shots (2.46 xG).
BOS Rush shots 25–25, rush xG 2.46–2.55 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
MIN Rush shots 25–25, rush xG 2.55–2.46 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
BOS 0-for-3 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.83 PP xG.
MIN 2-for-3 on the power play (67%; league ≈21%) with 1.07 PP xG.
BOS +1.33 goals saved above expected on 29 shots against.
MIN +2.00 goals saved above expected on 27 shots against.
BOS Took 3 penalties for 6 PIM vs 3 for 6 on the other side.
MIN Took 3 penalties for 6 PIM vs 3 for 6 on the other side.
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
BOS Finishing -2.00 goals vs xG plus +1.33 GSAx of save luck = -0.67 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
MIN Finishing -0.33 goals vs xG plus +2.00 GSAx of save luck = +1.67 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
Gave up 25 rush shots worth 2.55 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
J. Wallstedt stopped 26 of 27 (0.963) — +2.00 goals saved above expected in a 3-goal game.
2 goals on 25 rush shots worth 2.55 xG.
Gave up 25 rush shots worth 2.46 xG (1 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
1 goals on 25 rush shots worth 2.46 xG.
Scored 1 on 3.00 xG — -2.00 vs expected. The looks were there; the finish will come back.
Each club shoots toward its own end — BOS left, MIN right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.
Minnesota is favored, but a pair of teams running hot on puck luck makes this closer than the model suggests. J. Swayman and his back-to-back fatigue will determine whether Boston can lean on regression in their favor.
The Wild's edge is real. Minnesota commands expected goals at 62.7% of the 5v5 play, leaving Boston at 49.1%. Minnesota also controls shot attempts at 59.0%, while Boston sits at 53.7%. That possession advantage is clean.
But puck luck could flip the script. The Bruins measure at a puck luck index of 1.043, well above the breakeven point, while Minnesota sits at 1.023 — both running hot. The model projects a Boston 3.0 to 3.5 goals game with Minnesota at 58% win probability, but whichever team reverts to expectation, reverts hard.
Goaltending is where that variance lives. J. Swayman has been sharper than his workload: 4.5 expected goals minus actual in two games with a 94.7% save percentage. But he's on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back, which clouds the advantage. J. Wallstedt hasn't played much — one game, 1.0 expected goals minus actual, 95.0% save percentage — but he will be fresh.
Both teams generate an outsized share of their scoring from the slot. Boston has scored 8 goals on 50 slot shots (16%), while Minnesota has 6 on 49 (12%). Whoever suppresses the other's point-blank chances will have the clearest path to the win.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
MIN by 16 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score BOS 3.0–3.5 MIN; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
MIN holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.043 vs 1.023) says BOS has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
J. Swayman projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.
The Wild own the underlying play — 62.7% 5v5 xG vs 49.1%.
The Wild drive Corsi at 59.0% — expect territorial tilt.
The Wild's PDO is 1.023 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.