Avalanche run the Blues off the ice on the underlying numbers

Colorado is the model's lean over St. Louis tonight. The projection sits around 3.4-2.8, with the Avalanche winning 60% of the time. Two factors drive that edge: Colorado's command of the even-strength game, and the clock working against J. Hofer.

The Avalanche own the underlying play at even strength, claiming 55.5% of expected goals — the metric for quality chances. St. Louis manages 46.2%. That margin is the game — not transformative, but the kind of edge that compounds in tight third periods.

Rest amplifies it. Colorado comes in on two days off; St. Louis on none. That advantage typically materializes late, and it magnifies when the opposing goalie is running on back-to-back legs.

J. Hofer starts for St. Louis in his second straight night, which is where the fatigue signal burns brightest. If the Blues turn to a backup, Colorado's edge widens. If Hofer plays, watch his positioning in close — goalies on back-to-backs often leak in the slot.

M. Blackwood appeared once for Colorado, allowing 1.4 more goals than the chances dictated while stopping 87.1% of shots. J. Hofer appeared once, allowing 3.0 fewer goals than expected with perfect stops. Both are single-game auditions; both will regress toward the mean.

Both teams are running hot by luck. Colorado's 1.140 PDO and St. Louis's 1.133 mean both are overperforming their underlying metrics. That luck typically corrects soonest for the team on the road or fatigued, so regression likely strikes St. Louis tonight.

Colorado's slot conversion is the sharpest edge in the matchup — eight goals on 47 shots from the prime area, a 17% rate. The Blues can target denial there; whether they manage that while navigating back-to-back exhaustion is the second-order question.

The model says Colorado by one. Rest and goaltending say the margin could be wider.