WARNINGUTA
S. Cossa on a back-to-back
S. Cossa projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.
Preview · UTA at NYR
Mammoth at Rangers: a genuine coin flip
The model's leanSun, Oct 4
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 4, 9:13 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a UTA 3.2 - 3.1 NYR game with the Mammoth at 51% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
Keys to the game
- S. Cossa on a back-to-back. S. Cossa projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
- The Mammoth own the underlying play . The Mammoth own the underlying play — 59.0% 5v5 xG vs 55.4%.
- The Mammoth drive Corsi at 57.8% . The Mammoth drive Corsi at 57.8% — expect territorial tilt.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | UTA | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 59.0% | 55.4% |
| Corsi% | 57.8% | 48.4% |
| PDO | 1.067 | 0.994 |
Where the Edges Live
- The Mammoth own the underlying play — 59.0% 5v5 xG vs 55.4%.
- The Mammoth drive Corsi at 57.8% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression Watch
- The Mammoth's PDO is 1.067 — running hot, expect some regression.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: S. Cossa (+1.7 GSAx in 1 GP, 94.4% SV) vs D. Garand (+1.4 GSAx in 1 GP, 100.0% SV).
- S. Cossa is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
Players to Watch
Key Matchups
UTA
- Their goalie (Sebastian Cossa) leaks HD — 80.0% HD SV. Get to the slot.
- Most goals from slot (10G on 61 shots, 16%) — deny that lane
NYR
- Their goalie (Dylan Garand) leaks HD — 0.0% HD SV. Get to the slot.
- Most goals from slot (9G on 53 shots, 17%) — deny that lane
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 6:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
UTA 51%
51%
UTA
Model favorite
51%
49%
UTA50NYR
UTA by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score UTA 3.2–3.1 NYR; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
UTA← edge
edge →NYR
59.0%55.4%
57.8%48.4%
3.553.35
2.462.69
5.002.33
0.501.33
1.0670.994
UTA holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.067 vs 0.994) says UTA has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 2–3
UTA
2-0-0
+9 GD · 0d rest
NYR
2-1-0
+3 GD · 1d rest
1.067
UTA PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.994
NYR PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Mammoth own the underlying play
The Mammoth own the underlying play — 59.0% 5v5 xG vs 55.4%.
TACTICAL
The Mammoth drive Corsi at 57.8%
The Mammoth drive Corsi at 57.8% — expect territorial tilt.
TACTICALUTA
Goalie Weakness: Mammoth
Below-average on high-danger saves. Prioritize quality over quantity.
Their goalie (Sebastian Cossa) leaks HD — 80.0% HD SV. Get to the slot.
Where the edges live
- The Mammoth own the underlying play — 59.0% 5v5 xG vs 55.4%.
- The Mammoth drive Corsi at 57.8% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Mammoth's PDO is 1.067 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Mammoth own the underlying play — 59.0% 5v5 xG vs 55.4%.
- The Mammoth drive Corsi at 57.8% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: S. Cossa (+1.7 GSAx in 1 GP, 94.4% SV) vs D. Garand (+1.4 GSAx in 1 GP, 100.0% SV).
- S. Cossa is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
- The Mammoth's PDO is 1.067 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
UTA
vs CBJ · Sat, Oct 3
Expected in goal
S. Cossa
back-to-back.944 last start60:00 played
Backup Karel Vejmelka · +1.9 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.
Forwards · 12
- N. Schmaltz17:39
- C. Keller17:04
- D. Guenther16:51
- V. Trocheck17:27
- J. McBain14:34
- B. Hayton13:47
- D. But11:11
- M. Carcone13:03
- L. Crouse13:37
- A. Lee13:47
- K. Stenlund14:07
- L. Cooley16:48
Defence · 6
- J. Marino20:27
- A. Peeke15:03
- D. Simashev16:40
- M. Weegar20:21
- N. Schmidt21:33
- M. Sergachev22:01
NYR
vs DET · Fri, Oct 2
Expected in goal
D. Garand
1 day rest1.000 last start60:00 played
Backup Igor Shesterkin · +3.2 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- J. Miller17:28
- A. Lafrenière21:30
- P. Dorofeyev17:30
- E. Tolvanen11:26
- T. Kartye15:12
- O. Bjorkstrand13:22
- N. Laba12:05
- J. Chmelar09:11
- W. Cuylle14:43
- J. Veleno13:34
- M. Zibanejad21:21
- G. Perreault15:24
Defence · 6
- B. Schneider16:36
- S. Durzi19:19
- A. Smits11:26
- A. Fox22:50
- M. Pettersson21:56
- V. Gavrikov21:07
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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