Won against the run of play
The Ducks took it 3-2 in overtime with only 36% of expected goals (2.27–4.09).

The Ducks beat the Panthers 3-2 in overtime at Honda Center, their first regular-season home game. Florida had the better chances: 4.09 expected goals to Anaheim's 2.27, and five high-danger chances to Anaheim's one. Anaheim won it on special teams and in net.
Special teams. Every Ducks goal came on the power play. Anaheim went 3 for 4 with the man advantage and Florida went 0 for 4. Lukas Dostal stopped all seven shots he faced while Anaheim was shorthanded.
In net. Dostal made 29 saves on 31 shots, 2.09 goals saved above expected by our model, and stopped all five of Florida's high-danger shots. Jacob Markstrom stopped 18 of 21 for Florida, 0.73 goals below expected.
The players. Mikael Granlund, in his first home game as Ducks captain, tipped in the winner on a 4-on-3 power play at 4:14 of overtime. Cutter Gauthier scored both of Anaheim's regulation goals, his first two of the season, and assisted on the winner. Leo Carlsson had three assists and has five points in two games.
How it went. Gauthier opened the scoring on the power play at 16:18 of the first. Carter Verhaeghe tied it 51 seconds later on a tip from nine feet. Gauthier scored again on the power play 47 seconds into the second. Brad Marchand tied it at 18:10 of the third with Florida's goalie pulled for an extra attacker.
Faceoffs. Florida won 32 of 58 draws. Tim Washe was Anaheim's best at 11 of 18. Anaheim blocked 20 shots to Florida's 11.
Three Stars
What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.
Granlund's overtime winner gives the Ducks a 3-2 win over the Panthers in the home opener
The Panthers deserved better.
The board read FLA 2, ANA 3. The chances read FLA 4.1, ANA 2.3.
The Panthers left 2.1 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.
M. Granlund makes it 2–3.
The Panthers went 0 for 5 from the slot.
Granlund's overtime winner gives the Ducks a 3-2 win over the Panthers in the home opener
A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.
Read the full breakdownSnap shot from 44 feet, a 5% chance, a shot that rarely goes in, past J. Markstrom. 8s after an ANA miss by M. Granlund. Win probability moved 17 points.On the ice: J. Caulfield, J. LaCombe, J. Malott, T. Luneau, T. Washe · against B. Marchand, D. Kulikov, S. Reinhart, G. Forsling, B. Tkachuk
Tip-in from 9 feet, a 6% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (a rebound), past L. Dostal. 3s after a FLA shot by S. Bennett. Win probability moved 17 points.On the ice: R. Gudas, E. Luostarinen, A. Lundell, S. Vilmanis, U. Balinskis · against A. Killorn, M. Granlund, P. Mintyukov, T. Mitchell, B. Sennecke
Snap shot from 29 feet, a 14% chance (off the rush), past J. Markstrom. Win probability moved 18 points.On the ice: R. Poehling, J. LaCombe, N. Nesterenko, S. Colangelo, T. Luneau · against D. Kulikov, C. Verhaeghe, S. Bennett, G. Forsling, M. Tkachuk
Wrist shot from 6 feet, a 12% chance (a rebound), past L. Dostal. 2s after a FLA shot by L. Eller. Win probability moved 42 points.
Tip-in from 8 feet, a 6% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past J. Markstrom. Win probability moved 50 points.
score reads FLA–ANA
FLA went 0-for-5 from high danger on 1.18 expected goals — 1.2 left on the table.
FLA finished -2.1 against expected, ANA +0.7.
Snap shots carried the volume: FLA went 0-for-22, ANA 2-for-10. ANA scored 2 of theirs off the rush.
Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.
The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →
A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5
A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5
Best skater on the ice by our rating: C. Gauthier (ANA), 20:50 of ice, 2-1, 35% of the expected goals while he was out.
| Skater | TOI | G-A | SOG | ixG | xG% | PD/PT | Impact | /60 | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. MarchandL | 13:10 | 1-0 | 3 | 0.55 | 75 | 0/0 | 1.35 | 6.15 | A+ |
| S. BennettC | 21:52 | 0-1 | 4 | 0.40 | 57 | 0/0 | 1.23 | 3.38 | A |
| L. EllerC | 11:27 | 0-1 | 2 | 0.06 | 71 | 0/1 | 0.82 | 4.29 | A |
| C. VerhaegheC | 19:18 | 1-0 | 3 | 0.50 | 50 | 0/1 | 0.98 | 3.05 | A |
| B. TkachukL | 16:02 | 0-0 | 4 | 0.46 | 91 | 0/0 | 0.91 | 3.42 | A |
| S. VilmanisL | 13:38 | 0-0 | 4 | 0.74 | 77 | 0/0 | 0.76 | 3.36 | B |
| M. TkachukL | 23:28 | 0-1 | 1 | 0.19 | 59 | 0/0 | 0.87 | 2.21 | B |
| S. ReinhartC | 22:19 | 0-0 | 3 | 0.61 | 76 | 0/0 | 0.85 | 2.28 | B |
| A. LundellC | 17:33 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.01 | 77 | 2/0 | 0.70 | 2.40 | B |
| G. HathawayR | 9:30 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.20 | 71 | 2/0 | 0.54 | 3.38 | B |
| S. JonesD | 28:35 | 0-0 | 4 | 0.27 | 65 | 0/0 | 0.69 | 1.44 | C |
| R. GudasD | 15:47 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.01 | 73 | 0/0 | 0.43 | 1.63 | C |
| N. MikkolaD | 20:17 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.06 | 69 | 0/0 | 0.37 | 1.10 | C |
| U. BalinskisD | 14:40 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 100 | 0/0 | 0.29 | 1.19 | C |
| B. ImamaL | 7:45 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 100 | 0/0 | 0.10 | 0.73 | D |
| E. LuostarinenC | 16:12 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 57 | 0/0 | 0.12 | 0.44 | D |
| D. KulikovD | 17:49 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.01 | 48 | 0/0 | 0.02 | 0.06 | D |
| G. ForslingD | 20:25 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.01 | 46 | 0/1 | -0.10 | -0.30 | D |
| Skater | TOI | G-A | SOG | ixG | xG% | PD/PT | Impact | /60 | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. GauthierL | 20:50 | 2-1 | 4 | 0.43 | 35 | 0/0 | 2.25 | 6.49 | A+ |
| L. CarlssonC | 20:26 | 0-3 | 1 | 0.03 | 35 | 1/0 | 1.86 | 5.46 | A+ |
| B. SenneckeR | 21:44 | 0-1 | 3 | 0.49 | 34 | 1/0 | 1.19 | 3.27 | A |
| M. GranlundC | 22:31 | 1-0 | 2 | 0.51 | 25 | 1/0 | 1.02 | 2.73 | B |
| J. LaCombeD | 28:41 | 0-1 | 0 | 0.04 | 46 | 0/0 | 0.74 | 1.55 | B |
| S. ColangeloR | 10:24 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.11 | 76 | 0/0 | 0.28 | 1.61 | C |
| R. PoehlingC | 14:55 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.03 | 80 | 0/0 | 0.32 | 1.30 | C |
| J. MalottL | 7:56 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.06 | 75 | 0/0 | 0.20 | 1.54 | C |
| T. HindsD | 14:44 | 0-0 | 4 | 0.12 | 39 | 0/0 | 0.27 | 1.11 | C |
| N. NesterenkoC | 10:24 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 78 | 0/0 | 0.20 | 1.18 | D |
| N. WarrenD | 15:59 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.05 | 42 | 0/1 | -0.02 | -0.09 | D |
| J. CaulfieldR | 9:49 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 41 | 0/0 | -0.04 | -0.24 | D |
| T. LuneauD | 26:36 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.21 | 30 | 0/0 | -0.26 | -0.58 | D |
| T. MitchellD | 14:06 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 28 | 0/1 | -0.21 | -0.89 | F |
| A. KillornL | 16:32 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 14 | 0/0 | -0.28 | -1.00 | F |
| P. MintyukovD | 19:50 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 22 | 0/0 | -0.39 | -1.17 | F |
| T. WasheC | 16:24 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.07 | 13 | 0/0 | -0.39 | -1.42 | F |
| A. GreerL | 15:02 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.12 | 21 | 0/2 | -0.53 | -2.10 | F |
xG% = share of expected goals while on the ice · PD/PT = penalties drawn / taken · “in N min” = a per-60 rate far above the raw total. Impact = 0.75 G + 0.7 A1 + 0.55 A2 + 0.075 SOG + 0.05 BLK + 0.15 penalties drawn − 0.15 taken + 0.01 faceoff wins − 0.01 losses + 0.3 individual xG + 0.5 on-ice xG for − 0.5 on-ice xG against. Rating = 65% impact + 35% impact per 60, as a percentile among the skaters in this game.
Scratched, FLA: A. Petrovic, A. Ekblad, S. Lafferty. Scratched, ANA: N. Jensen, F. Vatrano, N. Klepov. Referees Chris Schlenker and Michael Markovic; linesmen Tommy Hughes and Travis Toomey.
FLA Created 4.09 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 5 high-danger shots (1.18 xG) and 29 rush shots (2.77 xG).
ANA Created 2.27 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 1 high-danger shots (0.19 xG) and 20 rush shots (1.88 xG).
FLA Allowed 2.27 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 1 high-danger shots (0.19 xG) and 20 rush shots (1.88 xG).
ANA Allowed 4.09 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 5 high-danger shots (1.18 xG) and 29 rush shots (2.77 xG).
FLA Rush shots 29–20, rush xG 2.77–1.88 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
ANA Rush shots 20–29, rush xG 1.88–2.77 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
FLA 0-for-4 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.74 PP xG.
ANA 3-for-4 on the power play (75%; league ≈21%) with 0.83 PP xG.
FLA -0.73 goals saved above expected on 21 shots against.
ANA +2.09 goals saved above expected on 31 shots against.
FLA Took 4 penalties for 8 PIM vs 4 for 8 on the other side.
ANA Took 4 penalties for 8 PIM vs 4 for 8 on the other side.
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
FLA Finishing -2.09 goals vs xG plus -0.73 GSAx of save luck = -2.82 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
ANA Finishing +0.73 goals vs xG plus +2.09 GSAx of save luck = +2.82 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
The Ducks took it 3-2 in overtime with only 36% of expected goals (2.27–4.09).
L. Dostal stopped 29 of 31 (0.935) — +2.09 goals saved above expected in a 1-goal game.
The Panthers controlled 64% of expected goals (4.09 to 2.27) and still lost — the process was there, the finish wasn't.
Change nothing structurally — this loss was variance, not process.
3-for-4 on the power play (75%) on 0.83 PP xG.
Gave up 20 rush shots worth 1.88 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Gave up 29 rush shots worth 2.77 xG (0 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Each club shoots toward its own end — FLA left, ANA right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.
The model projects a 3.2–3.2 game with the Ducks at 50% win probability. This is as close to a pick'em as hockey gets.
Florida dominates the underlying play. The Panthers control 57.7% of expected goals at 5-on-5, meaning they're generating better shot quality than Anaheim's 49.0%. On shot attempts alone, Florida drives play even more decisively at 59.5%, which should produce sustained territorial pressure. The Ducks, though, are running hot. Anaheim's PDO sits at 1.017—a measure of how lucky teams are getting on conversion—suggesting they've been outperforming their talent level and are due for regression. Florida's PDO of 1.030 tells the same story: both teams are beating expectation, and that gap will close.
The goaltending matchup features A. Schmid at minus-1.1 expected saves in one game (87.5% save percentage) against L. Dostal at minus-0.8 in four games (88.3%). Both are running below their true talent. Schmid has a critical vulnerability: he saves only 33.3% of high-danger chances, making the crease a liability for Florida. This matters because both teams live by conversion from the slot. Anaheim has 7 goals on 37 slot attempts (19%), an exceptional rate that won't hold. Florida has 4 on 52 slot attempts (8%)—more sustainable, but they need to start finishing that volume.
The matchup boils down to Florida's superior underlying play against Anaheim's unsustainable goaltending luck and shooting. If the Ducks' PDO regresses and Schmid tightens up, Florida's shot quality and shot volume should carry the day. If Anaheim's hot hand persists, the Ducks steal a win. The model's pick'em reflects that genuine toss-up—the better team doesn't always win when both are statistically flipped a coin.
ANA by 0 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score FLA 3.2–3.2 ANA; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
FLA holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.030 vs 1.017) says FLA has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
The Panthers own the underlying play — 57.7% 5v5 xG vs 49.0%.
The Panthers drive Corsi at 59.5% — expect territorial tilt.
Below-average on high-danger saves. Prioritize quality over quantity.
Their goalie (Akira Schmid) leaks HD — 33.3% HD SV. Get to the slot.
The Ducks' PDO is 1.017 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
No completed game on file for this club yet.
No completed game on file for this club yet.
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.