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Motion-blurred skater in a Seattle Kraken sweater
← Sun, Oct 4 · the slate
Breakdown · CGY at SEA

Kraken pull away from the Flames

FinalSun, Oct 4
CGYCalgary Flames1SEASeattle Kraken6
The verdict · stolen

The Kraken stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.43–3.05 and won anyway.

CGY 1 · SEA 6
◆ By the ModelOct 4, 10:52 PMxG: xgboost-0.765Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Seattle rolled past Calgary 6-1 on the back of rush dominance and stellar goaltending from J. Daccord. D. Wolf couldn't keep pace.

The final score masked a closer underlying game. Calgary had more expected goals — 3.43 to 3.05. J. Daccord saved 2.4 goals above expected; the Kraken's rush zone was ruthless.

The Kraken scored six goals on 29 rush attempts. M. Samoskevich netted two off the rush; B. Montour orchestrated with two assists in 23:12. C. Stephenson added two more assists. Calgary created seven rebound chances and converted zero.

D. Wolf gave up 2.9 goals more than expected. The Kraken generated better shot quality — their expected goals per shot (0.058) nearly doubled Calgary's (0.041). They held 45% of shot attempts, a slight edge that doesn't explain a 6-1 scoreline without the goaltending split.

Calgary's rush defense, not its discipline, was the problem.

The goals

  • SEA 0–1, 02:22 of the first. B. Catton, wrist shot from 24 feet, a 12% chance by the model (off the rush), past D. Wolf. 3 seconds after a CGY giveaway by C. Zary. Win probability moved 14 points.
  • SEA 0–2, 04:40 of the first. M. Samoskevich, backhander from 9 feet, a 19% chance by the model (off the rush), past D. Wolf. Assists: B. Montour, R. Evans. Win probability moved 12 points.
  • SEA 0–3, 07:40 of the first. B. McMann, wrist shot from 20 feet, an 11% chance by the model (off the rush), past D. Wolf. Assists: C. Stephenson. Win probability moved 8 points.
  • SEA 0–4, 11:58 of the second. S. Wright, backhander from 17 feet, a 10% chance by the model (off the rush), past D. Wolf. Assists: B. Catton, V. Dunn.
  • SEA 0–5, 19:34 of the second. M. Samoskevich, wrist shot from 28 feet, an 8% chance by the model (off the rush), past D. Wolf. Assists: M. Beniers, J. McCann. 9 seconds after a CGY giveaway by M. Gridin.
  • CGY 1–5, 14:25 of the third on the power play. M. Frost, tip-in from 6 feet, an 8% chance by the model (off the rush), past J. Daccord. Assists: M. Gridin, J. Farabee.
  • SEA 1–6, 15:04 of the third. J. Eberle, snap shot from 36 feet, an 11% chance by the model (off the rush), past D. Wolf. Assists: C. Stephenson, B. Montour.

What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Oct 4
CGY
1
SEA
6

Kraken pull away from the Flames

Chances 3.4 – 3.0Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Flames deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value
CGY
3.43
SEA
3.05
53% of the chances47%

The board read CGY 1, SEA 6. The chances read CGY 3.4, SEA 3.0.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
SEA
+3.0
goals above expected
SEA3.05 expected · 6 scored
Expected
Scored
CGY3.43 expected · 1 scored
Expected
Scored

The Kraken scored 3.0 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
The swing
+14
win-probability points
54% → 68% for SEA
SEA 100%the game, start to finish
CGY 100%P1 · P2 · P3
SEAP1 02:22

B. Catton makes it 0–1.

In-game win model · fitted on 5,248 games
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 02:22SEAB. Catton12%0–1
  2. P1 04:40SEAM. Samoskevich19%0–2
  3. P1 07:40SEAB. McMann11%0–3
  4. P2 11:58SEAS. Wright10%0–4
  5. P2 19:34SEAM. Samoskevich8%0–5
  6. P3 14:25CGYM. FrostPP8%1–5
  7. P3 15:04SEAJ. Eberle11%1–6
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
CGY
56 shots
1
Final
101 shots
SEA
45 shots
6
CGY attackSEA attack
CGY SEA Goal
56
shots · 1 in
45
shots · 6 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
CGYSEA
0 / 4
0.75 xG
High danger
1 / 3
0.57 xG
1 / 19
1.95 xG
Medium
5 / 18
2.00 xG
0 / 60
0.74 xG
Low
0 / 32
0.48 xG

The Flames went 0 for 4 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A
J. Daccord
+2.4
SEA · 32/33 · 59:20
Best save · a 19% chance, wrist from 6 ft · P2 10:13
F
D. Wolf
−3.0
CGY · 21/27 · 59:20
Best save · a 20% chance, wrist from 11 ft · P2 01:40
Best skater on the ice
A+
SEA
B. Catton
C · impact 1.66
12:41
Ice time
1–1
G – A
0.30
Own xG
51%
xG share
Impact · top 4
B. Catton1.7A+
B. Montour1.7A+
C. Stephenson1.5A+
M. Samoskevich1.5A
Report card
CGYSEA
OffenseB+B
DefenseDD
TransitionCC+
Special teamsA+C
GoaltendingFA+
DisciplineBD
LuckFA+
Seven dimensions, A+ to F · basis on the breakdown
Why it went the way it went
Why SEA won
  1. 01Dangerous off the rush
  2. 02J. Daccord stole it
  3. 03B. Montour led the way
Why CGY lost
  1. 01Rush defense leaked all night
  2. 02D. Wolf couldn't make the stop
  3. 03Cold finishing night
Our storyline model · reasoning on the breakdown
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Kraken pull away from the Flames

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 12 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 11–8
  1. 02:22SEAB. Catton0–1

    Wrist shot from 24 feet, a 12% chance (off the rush), past D. Wolf. 3s after a CGY giveaway by C. Zary. Win probability moved 14 points.On the ice: F. Gaudreau, R. Lindgren, C. Douglas, R. Winterton, V. Ottavainen · against Z. Whitecloud, K. Bahl, M. Pospisil, A. Klapka, M. Tsyplakov

  2. 04:40SEAM. Samoskevich(B. Montour, R. Evans)0–2

    Backhander from 9 feet, a 19% chance (off the rush), past D. Wolf. Win probability moved 12 points.On the ice: R. Lindgren, K. Kakko, V. Ottavainen, S. Wright, B. Catton · against R. Strome, C. Zary, Y. Kuznetsov, S. Nemec, S. Honzek

  3. 07:40SEAB. McMann(C. Stephenson)0–3

    Wrist shot from 20 feet, an 11% chance (off the rush), past D. Wolf. Win probability moved 8 points.On the ice: J. McCann, R. Lindgren, M. Beniers, M. Samoskevich, V. Ottavainen · against M. Frost, Y. Sharangovich, Y. Kuznetsov, M. Coronato, S. Nemec

2ndshots 10–8
  1. 11:58SEAS. Wright(B. Catton, V. Dunn)0–4

    Backhander from 17 feet, a 10% chance (off the rush), past D. Wolf.On the ice: J. Eberle, A. Larsson, C. Stephenson, V. Dunn, B. McMann · against R. Strome, C. Zary, Y. Kuznetsov, S. Nemec, S. Honzek

  2. 19:34SEAM. Samoskevich(M. Beniers, J. McCann)0–5

    Wrist shot from 28 feet, an 8% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past D. Wolf. 9s after a CGY giveaway by M. Gridin.On the ice: J. Eberle, C. Stephenson, R. Lindgren, B. McMann, V. Ottavainen · against R. Strome, M. Pospisil, Y. Kuznetsov, S. Nemec, S. Honzek

3rdshots 12–11
  1. 14:25CGYM. Frostpower play(M. Gridin, J. Farabee)1–5

    Tip-in from 6 feet, an 8% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past J. Daccord.

  2. 15:04SEAJ. Eberle(C. Stephenson, B. Montour)1–6

    Snap shot from 36 feet, an 11% chance (off the rush), past D. Wolf.

score reads CGY–SEA

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
3.05
SEA chances
Goals their shots were worth
+3.0
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.101
SEA puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
39.0%
Shot attempts
Under half — they were outshot
Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.43Expected goals3.05
CGY 53% of the chance quality
33Shots on goal27
4High-danger chances3
83All attempts (Corsi)53
Adjusted for score: CGY 68% · SEA 32%
Faceoffs · SEA won32%off59%neu53%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
CGY0 / 4 · 0.75 xG
SEA1 / 3 · 0.57 xG
Medium dangermid-range
CGY1 / 19 · 1.95 xG
SEA5 / 18 · 2.00 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
CGY0 / 60 · 0.74 xG
SEA0 / 32 · 0.48 xG

SEA went 5-for-18 from medium danger on 2.00 expected goals — 3.0 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
CGY
1 G · 3.43 xG · -2.4
SEA
6 G · 3.05 xG · +3.0
01234567

CGY finished -2.4 against expected, SEA +3.0.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
CGY
WRIST0/35
TIP IN1/9
SNAP0/5
BACKHAND0/3
SLAP0/3
WRAP AROUND0/1
OTHER0/27
SEA
WRIST3/30
TIP IN0/4
SNAP1/4
BACKHAND2/4
SLAP0/3
WRAP AROUND0/0
OTHER0/8
CGY
SEA
Off the rush
1 G on 32
2.34 xG
6 G on 29
2.66 xG
Off rebounds
0 G on 7
0.75 xG
0 G on 3
0.22 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: CGY went 0-for-35, SEA 3-for-30. SEA scored 6 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
D. Wolf
CGY · 21/27 · .778
started · 59:20
-3.0
saved above expected
F
the night
Attempts faced
44
Avg chance faced
6.9%
Stopped vs expected
0.864 vs 0.931
Rebounds allowed
3
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger1/30.6-0.4
Medium5/182.0-3.0
Low0/230.5+0.5
Tips & deflections0/40.3+0.3
The save
20% chance stopped, a wrist from 11 ft · P2 01:40
The one to have back
8% chance went in, a wrist from 28 ft · P2 19:34

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Daccord
SEA · 32/33 · .970
started · 59:20
+2.4
saved above expected
A
the night
Attempts faced
56
Avg chance faced
6.1%
Stopped vs expected
0.982 vs 0.939
Rebounds allowed
7
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/40.8+0.8
Medium1/191.9+0.9
Low0/330.7+0.7
Shorthanded1/50.3-0.7
Tips & deflections1/90.6-0.4
The save
19% chance stopped, a wrist from 6 ft · P2 10:13
The one to have back
8% chance went in, a tip-in from 6 ft · P3 14:25

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

Every skater who dressed

Who played

Rated on what they produced and how fast

Best skater on the ice by our rating: B. Catton (SEA), 12:41 of ice, 1-1, 51% of the expected goals while he was out.

CGY18 skaters
SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
J. FarabeeL16:510-179A
M. GridinR13:460-172A
M. FrostC17:511-047B
M. BacklundC14:360-071B
M. CoronatoR22:020-053B
A. KlapkaR11:170-059B
Z. ParekhD20:420-066C
M. PospisilC13:300-059C
K. BahlD19:470-061C
J. MiddletonD16:330-062C
Y. SharangovichC14:430-045D
S. NemecD20:510-043D
Y. KuznetsovD19:060-044D
M. TsyplakovR12:190-052D
Z. WhitecloudD18:590-051D
R. StromeC14:220-036F
C. ZaryC13:560-021F
S. HonzekL15:290-033F
SEA18 skaters
SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
B. CattonC12:411-151A+
B. MontourD23:120-258A+
C. StephensonC15:460-243A+
M. SamoskevichR18:092-031A
J. EberleR14:031-077A
B. McMannC15:271-050A
S. WrightC14:471-041B
J. McCannL15:420-158B
R. EvansD22:270-166B
M. BeniersC15:580-142C
R. WintertonC14:590-047C
R. LindgrenD17:570-063C
V. OttavainenD15:110-078C
C. DouglasC7:460-039D
V. DunnD18:340-125D
K. KakkoR13:150-051D
F. GaudreauC16:100-045F
A. LarssonD21:440-021F

xG% = share of expected goals while on the ice · PD/PT = penalties drawn / taken · “in N min” = a per-60 rate far above the raw total. Impact = 0.75 G + 0.7 A1 + 0.55 A2 + 0.075 SOG + 0.05 BLK + 0.15 penalties drawn − 0.15 taken + 0.01 faceoff wins − 0.01 losses + 0.3 individual xG + 0.5 on-ice xG for − 0.5 on-ice xG against. Rating = 65% impact + 35% impact per 60, as a percentile among the skaters in this game.

Scratched, CGY: J. Hanley, B. Pachal, B. Othmann. Scratched, SEA: J. Mahura, C. Fleury, B. Meyers. Referees Tom Chmielewski and Jordan Samuels Thomas; linesmen Trent Knorr and Dan Kelly.

Graded against a league-average game

Report card

Seven dimensions · A+ to F
DimensionCGYSEA
Offense
▸Basis

CGY Created 3.43 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 4 high-danger shots (0.75 xG) and 32 rush shots (2.34 xG).

SEA Created 3.05 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 3 high-danger shots (0.57 xG) and 29 rush shots (2.66 xG).

B+
87
B
84
Defense
▸Basis

CGY Allowed 3.05 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 3 high-danger shots (0.57 xG) and 29 rush shots (2.66 xG).

SEA Allowed 3.43 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 4 high-danger shots (0.75 xG) and 32 rush shots (2.34 xG).

D
66
D
63
Transition
▸Basis

CGY Rush shots 32–29, rush xG 2.34–2.66 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

SEA Rush shots 29–32, rush xG 2.66–2.34 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

C
73
C+
77
Special teams
▸Basis

CGY 1-for-2 on the power play (50%; league ≈21%) with 0.27 PP xG.

SEA No power-play opportunities to grade.

A+
100
C
75
Goaltending
▸Basis

CGY -2.95 goals saved above expected on 27 shots against.

SEA +2.43 goals saved above expected on 33 shots against.

F
46
A+
99
Discipline
▸Basis

CGY Took 0 penalties for 0 PIM vs 2 for 4 on the other side.

SEA Took 2 penalties for 4 PIM vs 0 for 0 on the other side.

B
85
D
65
Luck

Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral

▸Basis

CGY Finishing -2.43 goals vs xG plus -2.95 GSAx of save luck = -5.38 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

SEA Finishing +2.95 goals vs xG plus +2.43 GSAx of save luck = +5.38 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

F
32
A+
100
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
What the model flagged
STRENGTHSEA

Dangerous off the rush

6 goals on 29 rush shots worth 2.66 xG.

WARNINGCGY

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 29 rush shots worth 2.66 xG (6 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

WARNINGCGY

D. Wolf couldn't make the stop

D. Wolf allowed 6 on 27 shots (0.778) — 2.95 goals worse than expected.

Reassess the crease rotation before the next start.

STRENGTHSEA

J. Daccord stole it

J. Daccord stopped 32 of 33 (0.970) — +2.43 goals saved above expected in a 5-goal game.

LUCKSEA

Ran hot in front of the net

Scored 6 on 3.05 xG — +2.95 above expected. Shooting luck like that regresses.

LUCKCGY

Cold finishing night

Scored 1 on 3.43 xG — -2.43 vs expected. The looks were there; the finish will come back.

101 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
CGY
56 shots
1
Final
101 shots
SEA
45 shots
6
CGY attackSEA attack
CGY SEA Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — CGY left, SEA right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
B. Montour
#62 · D · SEA
0 G · 2 A · 3 SOG · 23:12 on ice · +3
M. Samoskevich
#11 · R · SEA
2 G · 0 A · 3 SOG · 18:09 on ice · +2
C. Stephenson
#9 · C · SEA
0 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 15:46 on ice · +2
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sun, Oct 4
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 11, 5:31 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects Seattle edging Calgary 3.2 to 3.0, which makes this about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

The Kraken are a 52% favorite, a hair above even, and the details below explain why the margin is so thin.

P. Grubauer and D. Cooley both project to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back, so watch for a backup start or tired legs. The goalie numbers still split. P. Grubauer has the edge in goals saved above expected, 5.7 goals better than D. Cooley this season. D. Cooley, over 2 games, has allowed more goals than expected and carries an 81.8% save percentage. P. Grubauer has stopped 91.7% of shots across 3 games.

Calgary controls 54.0% of shot attempts at five-on-five this season, so expect the Flames to spend long stretches in Seattle's end. Expected goals, which weight shots by how dangerous they are, tilt the other way. Seattle sits at 45.7% and Calgary is close behind.

The luck numbers are the loudest signal. Seattle's combined shooting and save percentage stands at 1.097, which is running hot and should settle back. Calgary's 0.873 is running cold and is due for a bounce back.

Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

SEA 52%
52%
SEA
Model favorite
48%
52%
CGY50SEA

SEA by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score CGY 3.0–3.2 SEA; 16% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
CGY← edge
edge →SEA
44.5%45.7%
54.0%42.3%
2.642.78
3.293.30
1.604.20
5.402.80
0.8731.097

SEA holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.873 vs 1.097) says SEA has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 2
CGY
0-2-0
-8 GD · 0d rest
SEA
1-1-0
+3 GD · 0d rest
0.873
CGY PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.097
SEA PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

WARNINGSEA

P. Grubauer on a back-to-back

P. Grubauer projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.

Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.

WARNINGCGY

D. Cooley on a back-to-back

D. Cooley projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.

Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.

TACTICAL

The Flames drive Corsi at 54.0%

The Flames drive Corsi at 54.0% — expect territorial tilt.

WARNINGSEA

Regression watch: Kraken

The Kraken's PDO is 1.097 — running hot, expect some regression.

Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.

Where the edges live
  • The Flames drive Corsi at 54.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
  • The Kraken's PDO is 1.097 — running hot, expect some regression.
  • The Flames' PDO is 0.873 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
  • The Flames drive Corsi at 54.0% — expect territorial tilt.
  • Goalie matchup: D. Cooley (-4.2 GSAx in 2 GP, 81.8% SV) vs P. Grubauer (+1.5 GSAx in 3 GP, 91.7% SV).
  • P. Grubauer has the GSAx edge — 5.7 goals above his counterpart this season.
  • The Kraken's PDO is 1.097 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
CGY
Expected in goal
D. Cooley
back-to-back.880 last start
Backup Dustin Wolf · -6.5 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

SEA
Expected in goal
P. Grubauer
back-to-back.920 last start
Backup Joey Daccord · +0.9 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Keep going

Where to next

Back to the front page